Sunday, October 06, 2013

Tymoshenko still in the game

So "Jailed Ukrainian opposition leader seeks treatment in Germany; EU mission calls for presidential pardon for her...Yulia Tymoshenko, a former prime minister of Ukraine, today accepted a proposal by a team of European Union mediators seeking to resolve a political deadlock caused by her imprisonment. "[From this report ]

Despite being imprisoned, Yulia Tymoshenko has constantly maintained leverage on how the EU/Ukraine Association and Free Trade Agreements pan out. Whatever the critics say, the agenda has revolved around her current predicament.

Meanwhile Yanukovych at the Yalta Economic Summit last month declared:

"We still have time and we will work according to the plan that we have. We have not said yes or no yet....The answer to this question lies in the domain of finding a compromise with Tymoshenko. The court and Tymoshenko can answer this question.”

Yanukovych was implying that it was Tymoshenko herself that was holding up the process of her release from detention by not co-operating..not admitting her guilt...not requesting a pardon...or not willing to "pay back the money"...whatever.

Now, by requesting for treatment in Germany, [despite all of the other hedges in her statement], she has made the first step. Critically, Cox and Kwasniewki, whose report in a few days time will carry great weight before the Vilnius summit, have personally appealed to Yanukoych to release her for treatment. It Yanukovych rebuffs them the chances of success in Vilnius will be much diminished. Tymoshenko, with Cox and Kwasniewski, have laid out a reasonable algorithm for progress to be made. Tymoshenko has been seen to make a first step sideward, if not backward for the benefit of the country.

But Yanukovych rightly fears that if he lets her go, she will be right back in the game. Now, if he does not budge, it will be he who will receive the brickbats, and will have to shoulder the blame for failure in Vilnius.

Latest opinion polls do not make pleasant reading for the president...Success on the path to Euro-integration would give him a boost, no question...

Below is the prognosis for possible head-to-head second round presidential election clashes:

P.s. On Monday Yanukovych will be Krakow, Poland meeting the presidents of Poland, Germany and Italy. No prize for guessing what the main topic of conversation will be...

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