Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Composition of the new Verkhovna Rada

This is an excellent diagram of the configuration of forces in the new parliament.

Most journalists axiomatically believe Opposition Bloc, will form a fraction of around 100+ deputies in the new parliament, and that it will be "pro-Russian".

But this may or may not be completely true. Opposition Bloc is not pro Donetsk People's Republic or Luhansk Peoples's Republic - they are  not separatists and have declared they will continue to work for an united Ukraine.

No major figure from former president Yanukovych's coterie or from Party of Regions, and no Ukrainian oligarch can be found in the upper eschelons of the DPR or LPR.

President Yanukovych refused to sign the Ukraine/EU Association Agreement because of tremendous pressure from Russia to boycott Ukrainian goods, including manufactured goods from eastern Ukraine, and to break the back of industries in that region. After invading Ukraine and trashing much infrastructure, such pressure can no longer be applied by Putin - the damage has been done.  Donbas oligarchs have nowhere else to turn but westward - their financial and industrial might, although much reduced after Russia's proxy-led invasion, is too great for them to remain in serious opposition for long. They know which direction the wind in now blowing and will be constantly attempting to cook deals with the new authorities for their own benefit.

There are reports that both of the two leading parties in the new parliament, People's Front and Poroshenko Bloc, are already working hard to recruit successful single-mandate deputies, [many of whom are outwardly independent but are from the PoR stable], into their own ranks in order to gain stronger hands in the formation of a new government. In total there is 94 such single-mandate deputies.

I suspect quite a few will be recruited.. for the sake of personal expediency, for guarantees of immunity, for money etc. etc.

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