Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Opposition Bloc will enter VR but be impotent? [Update]

So 'Opposition Bloc is expected to be the fourth largest party in the new Verkhovna Rada. They should gain a minimum of 30 seats - and probably more if some deputies in single mandate constituencies join them.

There are suspicions that President Poroshenko and his associates gave Opposition Block an 'easy run' in regained territories in Donbas  - possibly part of a under-the-table deal between Poroshenko and Putin. Pro-Russian elements in Ukraine will now have at least some representation in the VR and  may make Putin a little bit more amenable in any resolution of the current crisis. Some experts even hint this perhaps may be not a bad thing.

There could be substance to these suspicions.

There is lots of 'prima facie' evidence than many on Opposition Bloc's list have been involved in vast fraud and corruption schemes in the past and should be facing criminal charges. Everyone in Ukraine has heard about the Opposition Bloc leader Yuriy Boyko's involvement in the skimming of of hundreds of millions of dollars in the 'Vyshky Boyka' scandal. The fact that he is still 'in business' is a total disgrace.

Others in their ranks have inexplicably acquired great wealth also.  [See previous blog].

Serhiy Klyuyev, who will enter the new parliament has had his business assets seized abroad, and is probably under investigation.

But the Opposition Bloc will always be on tenterhooks, and will have to co-operate with the President - as they have already pledged to do.

The reason for this is the new VR could vote to remove their immunity from prosecution. Those who voted for scandalous laws on January 16 earlier this year, [which would have turned Ukraine into a Yanukovych-led dictatorship], and will now return to the new parliament, could face criminal charges.

Poroshenko will have plenty of kompromat on these guys to threaten them with if necessary.

Update: Ukrainska Pravda provide more information in an article "Elections in Donbas - betrayal of the authorities" about the corrupt manner in which discredited and corrupt Yanukovych 'old-guard' allies have again entered the new parliament...with the tacit approval of Poroshenko?

Poroshenko will be under pressure from Putin to ensure a Russia-friendly premier and cabinet is appointed...but the result was clear- Ukrainians absolutely do not want this.

p.s. FT Beyond Brics seem to agree, in parts, with your humble blogger in this article today.

Many of the Opposition Bloc 'big knobs' are not natural politicians at all, rather their main aim is survival and minimising the rapid diminution of their assets. They much prefer making back-room deals than standing on a box addressing a sceptical electorate...and they know that in the so-called Luhansk and in the Donetsk People's Republics they are finished..They have nowhere else to go.

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