Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Insightful analysis from inside 'Novorosisa'

Great analysis from Ollie Carroll, who has been in separatist-held territory for quite a few days now, posted on his facebook page

His conclusions?

"...if "Novorossia" [will] be unable to provide for its people [i.e. to get through the winter], opinion will move very radically against them."

"..the Russian strategy for me? Keep the DNR / LNR soup simmering, while you get back to the main deal: pressure-cooking Kyiv."
Kyiv has made it clear it will not provide serious funds to sustain and repair the separatist-held territory 'except where there is a Ukrainian flag flying'. The country is all but broke in any case so the possibility of Kyiv paying for any major welfare or regeneration programmes is remote.

And, as Vitaliy Portnikov says, if Putin wants to maintain its influence on this territory which is now being run by his loyalist thugs, or even if he replaces them with saner politicians picked from the local traitors, it will cost Russia a deal of money - we are talking about a war-ravaged infrastructure and millions of people.

But even if does Putin pump the money in, a big if, this being Russia, most of it will be misappropriated in any case.

As I mentioned in my previous blog...a serious humanitarian crisis in Donbas is likely. Those who will suffer most will be the elderly, the infirm, women with young children whose husbands/boy friends have dumped them.... i.e. those least able to fend for themselves.

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