Friday, February 10, 2006

Speculation on VR election results

More opinion polls have been published, including one on the NTN TV site [a channel close to Partiya Regioniv]. They project the new Parliament will comprise PR 185 seats, NSNU 113, BYuT 86, Socialists 37, Lytvyn's bloc 21, and Commies 20.

Another OP on the UNIAN site today has PR with 161 seats, BYuT with 107, NSNU with 74, Socialists with 39, Communists with 35, and Lytvyn's bloc and Nataliya Vitrenko's bloc both at 17.

Big businesses hate uncertainty and instability. A PR-NSNU coalition would have some chance of being robust and withstand some migration of deputies to other parties. Yanukovych, #1 on the PR list, could well be jettisoned as candidate for PM in order that NSNU feel better about being junior partner in the coalition.

Shutting out Yulia Tymoshenko would enable the big business sponsors of both NSNU and PR to breathe easier, as she represents a threat to their interests.

Oligarchs back in charge then after the ructions of the last year and a half..Ukraine has had its bit of excitement, maybe its for the best..[If only..]

p.s. A video of yesterday's 'punch-up' in the VR can be seen here . In the words of a song my dad used to sing: 'Nits nikomu sya ne stalo, tylko trokhy krvi sya lyalo..[pre-war 1/2 Polish 1/2 Ukrainian argot..]

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