Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Ukrainian roulette?

The realization that a grand parliamentary coalition is now likely has spurred deputies in Western Ukrainian, strongly pro-Yushchenko oblasts and cities to issue statements that they are 'deeply disturbed about the general direction of the country's development' and do not accept 'unnatural political alliances'.

They say that they 'will not allow the trust of the nation, so forcibly demonstrated at the Maidan, to be broken'.

I thought the air of resignation in both Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz's, and Yuliya Tymoshenko's rather sarcastic address to parliament [VR] today gave the impression that they consider 'the game is up' in their talks with NSNU - whatever they agree to, NSNU then keep 'moving the goalposts'. NSNU leaders, many of whom form their business wing, are determined to assemble a 'grand coalition' - NSNU's Roman Bezsmertnyi called it a 'stabilization coalition' today.

According to the rules, the successfully assembled coalition proposes for approval to the president their nomination for PM, and those ministers that are nominated by parliament. At first sight it would appear that any coalition must be formed by fractions who together make up a majority, because as I wrote earlier, 'changing horses' midstream is not permitted. However it seems that there is some 'wriggle room' - if a VR deputy does not leave his faction voluntarily, but is expelled, he still retains his voting mandate on an 'individual basis'. I guess there are party organizers 'phoning around possible defectors, making up lists of deputies, and adding up the numbers right now.

If a ruling coalition is not formed by the 25th June, the president has the power, but is not bound, to call for fresh elections.

A few weeks ago Yushchenko controversially stated that he would refuse to approve the Verkhovna Rada's Prime-Minister nomination until the VR attests the judges of the Constitutional Court. [Just another minor complication maybe everyone's forgotten about.]

Yanukovych has declared that if by tomorrow a parliamentary majority is not formed, his party will initiate a motion to elect a VR speaker and is counting on the votes of 'conscientious politicians' to form an 'anti-crisis' coalition. He says they have enough votes [with defectors from other parties] to do this. Lots more 'fun and games' in prospect..NSNU as a political force could be in deep trouble..

Just as I am finishing writing, this piece below has popped up on 'Ukrainska Pravda':


During the meeting with [President] Viktor Yushchenko, final office sharing issues, which were a stumbling block for the creation of the Orange team, were settled.This information was reported to Ukrayinska Pravda (UP) by an informed source.
This means that the creation of a coalition including BYuT, “Our Ukraine”, and the Socialist party (SPU), would be announced in the Parliament on Wednesday.

The roulette wheel is slowing down. But where will the little ball land - on red or on black? On orange, or on blue?

No comments: