What happens after Yatsenyuk's dismissal

Following the recent dismissal of VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk by parliamentary deputies, many are predicting an early no-confidence vote and swift departure for the Tymoshenko government.

But, as ever, matters in Ukraine are never simple. PoR, the largest party in the VR, cannot, even with the assistance of the Communists and Lytvyn's bloc [BL], form a majority coalition.

I quite liked this article from Akhmetov-owned 'Segodnya' which discusses several different scenarios. I've loosely translated portions:

Possibility #1. A pro-Tymoshenko PoR source claims there are currently negotiations taking place between Bank Street [pres's secretariat] and the PoR leadership on the formation of a coalition comprising PoR, BL, and NUNS. "If they are successful, then Volodymyr Lytvyn becomes speaker, and Viktor Yanukovych prime minister. However an internal PoR fraction, that of Firtash-Lyovochkin-Boyko, has other plans. They see not Yanukovych as PM, but Yuriy Boyko (a former fuel and energy minister in Yanukovych's government). If the candidature of the latter is advanced, then there will not be enough votes to form the coalition. Many of PoR's pro-Tymoshenko wing will not support it."

Lyovochkin himself refuted the claim: "No coalition between PoR and NUNS will be created with the current composition of parliament.Yuriy Boyko is an effective minister, but in a Yanukovych government."

Possibility #2. NUNS deputies do not believe in the possibility of a coalition with 'Regionaly' either. "The fraction met on Thursday and the question of creation of a coalition with PoR was raised, but no-one of those present voted for it. Its true, that there were not many supporters for a coalition with BYuT and BL either. Only "Self-Defence" Rukh, and some other deputies supported this," reported a source in NUNS.
The source did not exclude, that BYuT will nevertheless attempt to pull over Lytvyn to their side by offering him the post of VR speaker together with loyal 'Nunsivtsi' and pro-Tymoshenko 'Regionaly' to form a situational majority, which would pass laws needed by Tymoshenko.

Elections. Everyone recognizes that none of the possible new coalitions or stable majorities are at all likely. This means, as before, Damocles' sword hangs above the Rada. Everything points towards early elections.On November 23rd a year will have passed from the day of adoption of the oath of office by the current parliament so all formal obstacles for conducting early elections disappear. (The constitution does permit early elections less than year after previous early elections).

NUNS in disarray. It is probable that the present the head of the NUNS fraction Vyacheslav Kyrylenko will soon depart, as demanded by the pro-Tymoshenko wing of NUNS. This matter was raised on Wednesday at the fraction's conference, but not resolved. According to a source: "Olexandr Tretyakov or Taras Stetskiv could replace him. Tretyakov is the man of influential oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskiy, who is co-owner of the 'Privat' group. The latter has been reconciled with Tymoshenko, (rumour has it that Yushchenko has balked from early elections because Kolomoyskiy has refused to finance the election campaign of his block, in contrast to last year). Stetskiv and Tretyakov have both denied they are being tipped for Kirilenko's position.

Tymoshenko's resignation. Tymoshenko's resignation from government has not been taken off the agenda. 'Regionaly' are demanding a goverment report in parliament on the communal housing situation - as a consequence a no-confidence vote against the government could be proposed.

However, even in PoR there is no united position on whether it would be better to force Tymoshenko into resignation directly now, or later. There is a view that it would be better to wait until the Spring. By that time the situation in the economy could well be critical, and her ratings could collapse. Her resignation, and either re-elections, or a new coalition headed by Yanukovych, could follow. At the moment Yulia T's ratings are still high and she still has the capability of returning to the power in the event of early elections according to source in PoR leadership.

VR sacks speaker amidst shameful scenes

Today VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk 'had his chair pulled from under him', with the assistance of votes from pres. secretariat head Viktor Baloha's 'Yedynyi Tsentr' boys, even though Yatsenyuk was considered to be one of Yushchenko's 'blue-eyed' favourites.

The BBC have posted a video of today's scenes in the VR. They are reminiscent of an ice hockey brawl.

The president repudiates Yulia Tymoshenko's allegations that he was behind Yatsenyuk's "absolutely shameful" sacking. "I don't want to comment on this opinion - I have no respect for it because it is a cynical, lying, bribed position - its aim is to provide a smokescreen for the person undertaking these troublemaking schemes," said the president.

Some observers have noted that to date the president has neither condemned 'Yedynyi Tsentr' for voting with PoR, the Communists and Lytvyn's bloc, nor has sprung to the defence of Yatsenyuk in any meaningful manner. Others say that Yatsenyuk's proposal that parliament, government, and the president of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, all sign an agreement on temporary collaboration, which look like a step in the direction of BYuT, [see previous post] infuriated the president's secretariat and precipitated his dismissal.

However, Rinat Akhmetov's 'Segodnya' speculates: "Some deputies seem to think that now Yatsenyuk will become an ally of Tymoshenko, but BYuTivtsi are sceptical:

"The reason we gave up the struggle at the last minute [see video link above] was because we understood that this is a game conducted by the president, with Yatsenyuk's connivance. The aim is to present 'Senya' [Yatsenyuk] as a victim of collusion between Baloha and Akhmetov-Yanukovych, and then set him up in the elections as the head of his own force, to take away votes from BYuT. Or, as a variant to make him head of the presidential administration instead of the odious Baloha".

Yatsenyuk himself has confirmed that he intends to stand for election but has not made clear whether this is for the parliamentary or the presidential elections: "Without changes we will get to one place only - oblivion. I am already engaged in formation of a political force for change in the country. They sacked me so that I will return. But not here," said the former speaker.

Whatever the calculations, it's clear that Yatsenyuk's sacking makes the fall of Tymoshenko's cabinet and VR elections in the New Year far more likely now.

Signs of common sense returning?

The deputy head of the pres's secretariat, Andriy Kysylynskyi in a press release on the presidential website today says: "At the moment signs of political healing are absent, so elections will take place as soon as the economic situation settles. [But] at the same time the chances for unification of parliamentary forces in the face of the economic crisis are being maintained, as witnessed by the positive voting in the Verkhovna Rada supporting the president of Ukraine's anti-crisis bill. Any form of parliamentary majority is acceptable, be it a widened democratic coalition, or a coalition of 300 or more votes..."

"The forces that supported the president's anti-crisis bill [in the VR] - BYuT, NUNS and Lytvyn's Bloc [BL] can and should consider being coalition partners. [But] will such a coalition be viable? [...] The chance for political agreement, which the president of Ukraine has given, having halted the election process, is realistic in the [current] VR..."

VR Speaker Arseniy Yatseniuk today proposed that parliament, government, and the president of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko, all sign an agreement on temporary collaboration.

And according to the official government portal, this afternoon PM Yulia Tymoshenko signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine's leading mining and metallurgical enterprises. The memorandum was also signed by the owners and top managers of these enterprises, and by trade union leaders.

The cabinet of ministers undertakes to provide lines of credit at minimum rates, and to make Value Added Tax reimbursements as quickly as possible.

The enterprises, in return, will maintain their payrolls, wage levels and other social guarantees for their workers. Industrial strikes and disruptions are the last thing anyone needs right now, so not a bad day's work. Previous history would suggest that it is too early to consider today as any kind of turning point though.

Workers' protests to be manipulated for political ends

As I mentioned several days ago, the effects of the worsening world economic crisis may soon lead to workers' strikes and street protests in Ukraine.

The current 'Kommentarii' weekly claims trade unions that are under the control of Party of Regions will use their protests to effect the removal the Tymoshenko government.

Trade unions under control of BYuT will direct their protests against the oligarchic 'fat cats' who own much of Ukraine's industrial base. Many, but by no means all, are PoR donors and supporters.

BYuT's position was expressed by the leader of the Confederation of Free Trade Unions of Ukraine, BYuT parlimentary deputy Mykhaylo Volynets, who claimed there is no reason to "throw out people onto the street". He said that he ready to lead 10 million workers in protest.

The presidium of Central Committee of Trade Union of Metallurgists and Miners of Ukraine are to meet on November 12th. Even though it is employers that are breaking agreements forcing employees to take holiday leave early and terminating pay raises, their protests will have an anti-government character.

The Federation of Trade Unions and Trade Union Associations of Ukraine held a press conference recently and complained that trade unions were not consulted prior to a parliamentary bill on minimising the effects of the world financial crisis on the Ukrainian economy being passed. The bill, the Federation claims, rides roughshod over previously agreed workers' rights. Even though it was president Yushchenko who was the author of this bill, the Federation will direct its fire at Yulia Tymoshenko rather that at the president.

In recent days there have been two meetings at the highest level between the goverment and trades unions representatives, the first attended by the minister of labour, and the second by the PM herself, but tripartite talks involving the Federation of Employers of Ukraine have not taken place because its head, PoR VR Deputy and ex-Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko, has, apparently, been away.

The 'Kommentarii' article concludes that PoR are prepared to use trade unions and 'take to the streets' in order to force Tymoshenko out of government with the tacit consent of the President. The prime minister in her turn, is seeking counter-measures and is preparing for 'street battles' too. Whoever's street actions turn out to be more radical will become the leader of the future presidential race even though any possible protests will be irrelevant in solving the problems caused by the world economic crisis.

Everybody does it in Ukraine*

I recently blogged here and here about the alleged supply of arms by Ukraine to Georgia during the latter's recent mini-war with Russia in Southern Ossetia, and on the setting up of a temporary Ukrainian parliamentary committee to investigate this matter.

The temporary investigative committee has recently returned from Southern Ossetia and Russia. Its head, PoR VR deputy Valeriy Konovalyuk, spoke to journalists today and claimed the committee had received documents indicating that Ukrainian military experts had taken part in the conflict. "There is no doubt that a question will arise about the political assessment and responsibility, primarily of the president, who provided for the full control over the export of arms sphere from Ukraine," said Konovalyuk.

He also alleged that during their verification serious irregularities in the activities of 'Ukrspetsexport' and other companies were revealed. The temporary investigative committee will be ready to produce its report next week. They will be calling for managers of several of these companies to be sacked.

Also today the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) passed a criminal case against NUNS VR deputy Hennadiy Moskal to the Prosecutor’s General Office for their consideration. Acting head of the SBU, Valentyn Nalyvayckenko, at a press conference alleged the case concerned granting of war veteran status to certain persons, in return for bribes. By coincidence [or not?] Moskal is first deputy chairman of the VR Committee for combating corruption and organized crime.

Nalyvayckenko also 'fingered' two BYuT VR deputies for illegal financial operations, possibly involving contraband.

Recently several members of the the Committee for combating corruption and organized crime, including Moskal, won an appeal to cancel a presidential ukaz appointing Tyberiy Durdynets deputy head of the Committee. Durdynets had worked for a long time in Transcarpathia where head of presidential secretariat Viktor Baloha had developed his business empire.

Former deputy head of the SBU, now deputy head of the BYuT VR fraction, Andriy Kozhemyakin claims these accusations have just been organized by the pres's secretariat and the SBU to discredit his political force.

A while ago I challenged a Ukrainian friend for committing a minor criminal motoring offence. He replied: "Don't worry, its OK, everybody does it in Ukraine."

Splits in NUNS widen

Representatives of six of the nine political forces that form NUNS have responded to President's statements that NUNS deputies do not want to renew the democratic coalition with BYuT, and that parliamentary elections remain the only way out of the crisis.

They declared: "We, the leaders of the majority of the political forces on which the NUNS bloc and fraction is based, are extremely surprised by the president's assertion about "the absence of trust in Yulia Tymoshenko" and about the disinclination of the NUNS fraction to return to the democratic coalition."

They accuse the NUNS leadership of avoiding party meetings because: "the puppet-masters from Bank Street [pres's secretariat] are fearful that at the first sitting of the fraction a decision will be approved to return the fraction to the ranks of the democratic coalition.. We yet again responsibly declare that the coalition of democratic forces in parliament should, and must be renewed in a matter of hours. For this only one thing is required - the wish and politicial will of the president." The signatories of the declaration "call on the president to cease his motiveless attacks against the government, the PM, and the coalition of democratic forces, particularly today, when the country needs unity to meet the challenges to Ukraine from the world financial crisis."

So...big trouble in the NUNS camp..

PM Tymoshenko, in light of the world economic crisis, today called for talks between the Federation of Ukrainian Trade Unions, employers' organisations and the government. "The world has never experienced such a shock, so today, appreciating the true situation, it is necessary to discuss how we can find mutual understanding," she said.

Yesterday that had been talk of a country-wide strike by the Federation if the government representatives refused to talk to them about measures to ameliorate the effects of the crisis.

p.s. The best translation I can provide of Mykola Azarov's comment to Tymoshenko during Friday's TV debate was: "First of all I would like to say, as a women, personally, I like you [nravitisya] very much....[guffaw's of laughter in the studio..close-up of Yatsenyuk, the pres. Yanuk]..so there’s no need for the accusation that our faction does not like you.." [See a video clip of this here ] I think Tymoshenko was really taken aback by this. An experienced politician like her should be able to cope easily with this type of comment - normally she is quick-witted enough to give as good as she gets, or better; sometimes using double entendres. Maybe she wanted to play the 'wronged victim role' which she does well, or maybe was just having an off-day.

Ukraine's public debt

During Friday's live marathon TV debate in which president Yuschenko and PM Tymoshenko sat with a couple of metres of one another, the president accused the PM's government of plunging into debts "like a bitch into fleas”. [This was not the only mysogynistic remark made during the debate.]

In fact Ukraine's public debt as percentage of gross domestic product ratio was recently a remarkably low 12%. Well over one hundred countries, including all the world's major democracies, have a higher public debt to GDP ratio.

In August this year this ratio dropped to 9%.

Your blogger has an iron rule not to make disparaging remarks about any politician, and will not make an exception for Ukraine's president who was talking with head head up his ****

p.s. Watch Yulia Tymoshenko answering questions in Sunday night's hour-long '5-iy Kanal' broadcast here

In a masterful performance she bitterly complains about her treatment in Friday night's 'Inter' broadcast almost at the end of this video recording.

p.p.s. There are reports that there could be mass protests by metallurgical workers and miners by the end of the week. Forced lay-offs and axing of wages resulting from the global economic down-turn are beginning to bite in Ukraine..There could be half a million more unemployed workers in Ukraine by Christmas..

Ukraine's politicians in major TV debate

Watch yesterday's unprecented 4 hour TV broadcast on overcoming the economic crisis facing Ukraine, in which virtually all of Ukrainian political 'big beasts' took part, here

A nice resume here

There is plenty for body language experts to analyse in the broadcast. The seating arrangements, as others have noted, were absurd. Government and opposition should be afforded equal status - Viktor Yanukovych, who is leader of the largest parliamentary fraction, should not have been sitting in the 'cheaper seats'. The president, from now on, may be nick-named emperor Viktor Napoleonovych..

In my view the programme's producers should have included unbiassed analysis and background on the current global economic crisis, and how this affects Ukraine for its viewers, before the debates took place.

The glitzy studio set contrasted sharply with amateurish visual aids presented by some of the politicians.

Kluyev interview

Andriy Kluyev, one of PoR's leading deputies, was interviewed by the 'Delo' business daily in an article entitled: 'Link-man between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko'.

Here are portions:

Q. Part of Party of Regions became initiator of a coalition with BYuT on September 2nd. How did this arise and why did nothing come of it?

[Note: On that day PoR and BYuT voted together in parliament to reduce the president's powers, infuriating the president Yushchenko. His NUNS bloc broke away from their coalition partners BYuT, and gave Yushchenko a pretext to call snap elections.]

A. Unfortunately, for quite a long time PoR and BYuT were rivals. An enormous mass of problems has sprung up which must be untangled. Naturally, it is physically impossible in a short time to solve these questions. Look, there are a number of questions, on which we reached consensus. We must morally realize that we should trust each other. This is a matter of time. I consider that if after elections, or without them, a coalition between BYuT and PoR is formed on these or other conditions, our country will turn from being a politically unstable, to a stable and viable state.

[Note: Tymoshenko several times recently declared that BYuT would not enter any parliamentary coalition with PoR because they promised not to do so during last year's snap election campaign.]

Q. And on what conditions can such a coalition take place?

A. On the conditions of understanding that we are obliged, at the end of the day, to form an effective authority, which would work in a stable fashion for at least 4-5 years. Surely, besides short-term anti-crisis measures, it is vital we should accept a long-range development program for Ukraine. We need, just as the air we breathe, a packet of reforms on the elimination of structural disproportions in the economy, on the creation of new high gross value addition branches of industry, on improvements in the conditions of conducting business, on improvements in the quality of the life of citizens. [Any] new coalition must be built on the understanding that Ukraine can no longer lose time on conflicts...

Q. Who was the initiator of negotiations [between PoR and BYuT] then?

A. Both sides. Nothing ever happens without mutual wishes. There was mutual understanding of the fact that we should change something in the country. However, this did not lead to any coalition. On one hand, the fact that Yulia Tymoshenko's trip to Moscow went well and she was cordially received there has been actively discussed. They say that Viktor Medvedchuk was involved. On the other hand, Viktor Yanukovych declares, that is possible the remnants of SDPU(o) may join up with Party of Regions. What then is the political role of Viktor Medvedchuk?

Viktor Vladimirovich [Medvedchuk] is my friend. I consider that if he returns to the active politics in Ukraine - the state will only win. He is a competent specialist, dynamic… If he enters PoR's lists of candidate deputy (if elections do after all take place) - this will be very good."

As I mentioned in my previous blog, Kluyev considers any snap parliamentary election will probably be postponed until February next year. He says that early elections was not PoR's idea and they are not a panacea to cure Ukraine's ills.

p.s. 'Ukrainska Pravda' gives some details of VR deputies who failed to support a bill to raise finances for the early elections. The motion was not carried because only 222 votes could be raised, 4 short of the minimum required. Over 40 deputies from NUNS failed to support the motion, and included those from Ihor Kolomoysky's group. Oddly, Ivan Plyusch and Petro Yushchenko's cards did not register a vote either. Although most PoR deputies supported the motion, several big-names amongst their ranks, for various reasons, did not.

Update:

PoR seem to have gone 'lukewarm' on the elections. Leading PoR spokesperson Hanna Herman says a PoR conference scheduled for today will not take place.

"We will not hold the meeting because a date for the elections has not been determined and it is not clear at all if there will be elections or not."

Chances of December VR election receeding?

Ukraine`s parliament has given initial approval to a package of bills needed to receive an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund, BYuT and NUNS voted together, but only two PoR deputies supported the motion.

But the parliament failed to introduce changes to the budget and provide 400 million hryven for elections even though NUNS deputies, voting with PoR to support the motion, used the voting cards of absent colleagues. The voting result indicated 170 out of 172 PoR deputies supported the motion, but only 35 Nasha Ukraina deputies voted with them. The NUNS bloc won 72 seats in last year's VR elections. [So 'heap big' problems in the presidential camp - opinion poll ratings show most if not all of the NUNS deputies would lose their seats in any early election - turkeys voting for Christmas??]

Yushchenko admitted that elections cannot take place without funds being first approved by parliament.

Tymoshenko now claims the Orange coalition can be brought back to life again.

Is this part of [alleged] pre-arranged set-up for a possible deferred parliamentary election in the Spring?

p.s. The general director of the huge Ilich Mariupol MetKombinat, Volodymyr Boyko, declared his plant is in severe economic trouble and that he would agree to its nationalisation. Boyko said that the situation is bad in all of Ukraine's metallurgical plants, and gloomily predicted "Hundreds of thousands of workers could find themselves on the street in the near future."

Update: Even PoR big-wheel Andriy Kluyev considers elections could well take place February next year.

Yushchenko's plan - Spring elections?

The proUA website carries an interesting piece claiming that last Sunday president Yushchenko and PM Tymoshenko met secretly at his dacha outside Kyiv and agreed to postpone the snap VR elections, currently pencilled in for December 14th, until Spring next year.

In order that the president does not lose face and is not seen to be caving in to Tymoshenko's demands, his excuse will be that the recently-agreed IMF credit of $16.5 billion for Ukraine is to be granted on the condition that political stability is returned, i.e. no early elections to take place.

After many weeks of claims from the president that the only one way out of the current crisis is early elections, deputy head of the president's secretariat Maryna Stavniychuk said, "[VR] Deputies should urgently determine a way out of the political impasse : either [agree to] extraordinary elections, or to the formation of a new parliamentary coalition."

A new BYuT/NUNS/Lytvyn bloc [BL] coalition had been proposed but NUNS did not see any point in giving Lytvyn the VR speaker's chair. Arseniy Yatsenyuk has pretended to have forgotten about his own resignation declaration.

Sources of proUA believe that delaying the elections until Spring suits both presidential and prime minster's teams. Despite major problems being faced by the KabMin, Tymoshenko nevertheless remains in charge of government.

The delay gives the presidential camp time to plan and prepare a new political strategy. If after the elections Yushchenko decides to enter into a coalition with Party of Regions this could be done indirectly via new political groupings led by Yatsenyuk, Chernovetsky, and possibly Baloha, or combinations of these, thus reducing the damage to his own political image before the presidental race begins.

There are already signs that the president and PM's agreement was very loose and not all details were 'nailed down'. Had everything been agreed, an anti-recessionary package should have been introduced in the parliament agenda signed by speaker Yatsenyuk or Yushchenko. After the collective voting of BYuT, NUNS and BL, a new coalition could have been created between them.

However Yatsenyuk proposed that the first point of the agenda would be NUNS deputy Ksenya Lyapina's bill ensuring funds for the early elections would be provided. BYuT deputy Roman Zabzalyuk admitted that he and fellow BYuT deputies blocked the parliamentary podium as the first words of the speaker had been uttered: "as a reflex reaction." There had been no instructions previously contrary to this from above.

After this a presidential anti-recessionary project appeared, which BYuT agreed to support in the evening, but it did not mention money for elections, so there is currently no threat of dispersal of parliament.

proUA suggests that the following Yushchenko-Akhmetov post election plan is gradually coming into focus:

Snap election in the Spring.

Viktor Yanukovich to be dumped by Party of Regions so that he does not get the PM's chair, and later the presidential chair, enhancing Yushchenko's chances of a second term.

Creation of a broad coalition of PoR and pro-presidential fractions possibly headed by Baloha, Yatsenyuk, Bohatyryova, Chernovetsky,and Lytvyn.

Formation of a Cabinet of Ministers led by a 'technical' prime minister, e.g. Raisa Bohatyroyova or Yuriy Yekhanurov. The president receives the 'humanitarian' ministries and the Ministry of Finance, so retaining control of taxation, customs, etc.

Andrey Klyuyev, who has been spotted in the last few days in the company of Rinat Ahmetov, to be first deputy-premier. Yuriy Boyko to head the 'fuel-energy complex'. Akhmetov man Volodymyr Kozak, who two years ago was chairman of the Ukrainian State Railroad, to head the ministry of transport and communications.

Such a scenario would be very attractive to Yushchenko and one for which he may well be striving.

p.s. There has already been speculation that a workable new parliamentary coalition could possibly be assembled by individual deputies, even though such coalitions are supposed to be formed by political fractions.

p.p.s. For those interested on what really happened in South Ossetia check out this BBC article with links to follow-on video and radio programme.

Bad news for Donbas

PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych has announced that the Mariupol Metallurgical Plant [Mariupolskiy met-kombinat im. Illicha], the largest in Ukraine, has stopped production.

The plant, a workers' collective, has about 60,000 employees on its books. They have been put on 'reduced wages'.

LEvko fears this is a significant indicator of the economic crisis facing the country - maybe the greatest in the country's short independent history. Wind-down and start up at plants such as MMK im. Illicha are major operations - they cannot be switched off and on at will. There could be a possibility now that it will never restart.

The value of last year's production at the plant was nearly 18 billion hryven.

Elections to be moved back yet again?

"I considered, and consider early elections during a world financial crisis to be a crime against the state. And I, by all possible means - legal, absolutely open and political, will not permit these elections to take place, because this is practically a war of everyone against everyone else. There will be no time for political forces to defend the country from political crisis, but there will be only a fight for every percentage point during the parliamentary elections," PM Tymoshenko said today.

And deputy head of the Central Electoral Commission, Andriy Mahera claimed that it would be impossible to hold early parliamentary elections before 21st December. The president had moved the nominated date for elections forward by one week to the 14th, but according to Mahera: "52 days remain until the 14th, but the time [required] for the election process for extraordinary elections should be from 54 to 60 days."

The president has nailed his colours to the mast. Today he told the BBC that he expects a new coalition and government to be formed by January 1st 2009. Recent political history in Ukraine, drawn out, tortuous negotiations in forming parliamentary coalitions, their instability, and recent opinion polls on how any future parliament would stack up, all suggest he is out of touch with reality.

If elections are postponed again until after the Christmas recess, calls for combined early parliamentary and presidential elections will grow ever louder..

Shuba died with smile on his face..

Today's 'Segodnya' has a melodramatic write-up on Volodymyr Shuba's funeral [so soon? - see previous posting for more on this guy] entitled:

"Eyewitnesses: Shuba's face says his death was not an accident"

"A sarcastic smile was frozen on it, as if he knew who shot him," a colleague from the prosecutor's office who wished to preserve anonymity told us... "and the corners of his lips were unnaturally turned down".

"People got a shock," a colleague agreed - "Volodymyr Vasylyevich has a strange strip on the cheek, like a twisted jaw".

Rumours about the non accidental nature of the death of the city prosecutor strengthened after the funeral. "The death of Shuba was a slap to the law-enforcement system," said former-colleague, Ministry of Internal Affairs Colonel Aleksey Goncharov.

A person, who knew Shuba well gave 'Segodnya' a gloomy prediction: "The prosecutor is not the first nor the last victim of battle for power in the Dnipropetrovsk, or of raiders' seizures of property. He got involved wherever it was necessary and wherever it was not - in any building site, any market."

The source criticises the investigators of Shuba's death for constantly changing their story, and ends: "Accident? Don't be stupid. They rang me and told me: "That bent-barrelled gun of Kushnaryov's has been fired a second time…"

The article describes the official version of events surrounding Shuba's death, but the head of "International Anti-terrorist Unity" Colonel of the Reserve Alexander Dichek, expressed himself on this version thus: “Yes, the investigation must establish the cause [of death]. But the trajectory described resembles, please excuse me, circus tightrope walking”. [tsirkovuyu ekvilibristiku]

P.S. This from Bloomberg: The global financial crisis is hitting more vulnerable emerging markets as investors shun riskier assets in countries with big current-account deficits in a flight to safety. Ukraine has the worst creditworthiness of Europe's emerging markets, based on the cost of credit-default swaps, which protect bondholders against default.

Prosecutor Shuba slain in Robin Hood restaurant riddle

Yesterday the Dnipropetrovsk chief prosecutor Volodymyr Shuba was shot dead in an 'accident' at the 'Berkut' firing range near the "Robin Hood" restaurant in his home town [see photo in the 'Segodnya' link below.]

According to two witnessess, the Saiga hunting rifle he was using dropped from his hands, its stock hit the ground, and a bullet round was accidentally discharged from the weapon ripping through his heart. The bullet was found embedded in the roof of the premises. [PoR big-shot Yevhen Kushnaryov was allegedly shot with a similar weapon a couple of years ago]

Today 'Segodnya' provides background and speculation surrounding this Dnipropetrovsk 'avtorytet's' death in an article entitled: "Death of the boss of Dnipropetrovsk Shuba could be start of bloody realignments"

According to the official version, Shuba, who was one of the most prominent persons in the region, died during firing practice, but many do not believe it was an accident. .

'Segodnya's' sources claim that the rifle which caused his death was a gift with which he had been presented with the day before. Others claim a very close friend was demonstrating his own rifle to him. There were allegedly two of Shuba's colleagues from the prosecutor's office present with him at the time of the 'accident', but several present and former high-ranking officers of the Prosecutor-General's office have expressed doubts that his death was accidental.

In the opinion of one 'Segodnya' source, Shuba may have been eliminated by those who did not want his further promotion - he had been tipped to be a future Prosecutor-General of Ukraine. Unofficial sources confirm that people close to prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko were actively striving for this.

Deputy Prosecutor-General Sergiy Vinokur said the circumstances surrounding Shuba's death would be thoroughly checked, but he was inclined to think it was an accident - nothing in common with intentional homicide.

Until his death Shuba was considered a major figure of authority in the region - "No-one in law enforcement agencies could even sneeze without his permission in Dnipropetrovshchyna," according to one source. He was a most significant figure in the resolution of questions concerning property, said another.

Politologist Kost' Bondarenko says that the death of Shuba appears suspicious. "He had numerous enemies. He was undoubtedly the top dog in the city. Without his approval, no serious matter e.g. on land allocation or on the purchase of property could be decided. He feared neither governor, nor mayor, nor local oligarchs." But recently he had been involved in land disputes, the losers of which were deputies from BYuT…

Influential Dnipropetrovsk journalist Vladislav Romanov does not exclude, that after his death, new 'realignments' could take place. "It wasn't by accident that this shot sounded, when the attention of everyone in Kyiv was drawn to the re-elections", he said.

Shuba was a former chief of the prosecutor's office in Crimea, and simultaneously deputy Prosecutor-General of Ukraine.

One of Mykola Melnychenko's tapes allegedly includes a conversation with Kuchma of the-then head of the Tax Administration Mykola Azarov, charging Shuba with providing 'krysha' or 'roof' for liquor and vodka businesses in Crimea.

Shuba arrived in Dnipropetrovsk in year 2000. In 2003 the new Prosecutor-General Gennadiy Vasil'yev (from Donetsk) sacked him but he was restored in his post after the Orange Revolution when the Svyatoslav Piskun returned to the Prosecutor-General's post.

When asked whether Shuba was a man of Tymoshenko, Yushchenko, or of the local oligarchs, those in the know in Dnipropetrovsk answered: "Shuba was a man of Shuba - he didn't bow to anyone."

Should has stuck to bows and arrows.

"Such a lot of guns around town and so few brains" Philip Marlowe.."The Big Sleep"

p.s. Borys Penchuk, author of "The Donetsk Mafia", and a former key witness in the now-closed extortion case against senior opposition MP Borys Kolesnykov, has now been taken into custody himself by a Donetsk district court decision on suspicion of extortion and perjury against Kolesnykov.

Penchuk, who had been feared kidnapped, was arrested in Kyiv on 10th October by officers of the Donetsk organized crime directorate and delivered by force to Donetsk. Penchuk's lawyers are preparing an appeal against his detainment in custody before any trial.

History repeating itself

BYuT parliamentary deputy Andriy Kozhemyakin today claimed that the state security service [SBU] and State Defence Administration [UDO] are 'planning the realization of a force scenario and establishing direct presidential rule'.

He claimed the president's secretariat is planning a Pinochet-style "Chilean scenario"' and appealed to the power structures not to give in to provocations and not to obey illegal orders of their leadership.

He quoted the words of Salvador Alliende: "They have the power and they can crush us, but the social process cannot be stopped either by force or by criminal means."

All of this may sound alarmist, but it has to be remembered Kozhemyakin rose through the ranks to become, in 2005, deputy head of operations of the SBU and head of the administration for fighting corruption and organized crime. His father was a lieutenant-general in the SBU.

The press service of the SBU have responded calling Kozhemyakin's claims 'rubbish'.

About 60 fully armed special forces personnel have also been 'protecting' the Central Electoral Commission building. The SBU denied that any of the 20 or so BYuT deputies present today had been beaten up..

The country is sliding into the same kind of mess as last year when the president dismissed a PoR-led parliament, except last year Tymoshenko was cheering the president on.

Tomorrow Tymoshenko is flying to Brussels where she is to meet Javier Solana - the EU's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy.

Orange battle of attrition continues

President Yushchenko has decided that if a judge doesn't decide in his favour then he can be hassled and possibly even have criminal proceedings instituted against him..Courts that support BYuT appeals to annul his decree on dissolution of parliament can themselves be liquidated by decree.

PM Yulia Tymoshenko is adamant - "I know that they [early elections] will not take place..it is necessary to do everything so that there will be no elections," she said in a TV interview yesterday.

To underline this, her cabinet refused to allocate funds from state budget reserve funds to the Central Electoral Commission for conducting early elections, despite a 5 p.m. deadline set by the president.

The State Control and Audit Administration have warned the PM that if the cabinet permits early elections to be funded from the state reserve fund they may be acting illegally. The fund has recently been boosted in order to make good infrastructure losses caused by last June's severe floods in Western Ukraine.

What will the struggle of wills between the pres and PM bring next? Ukrainians like a lengthy New Year and Orthodox Christmas break. If the VR elections were to be switched to some time after this it would be late Spring before parliament would reconvene - about the time the presidential elections would be gearing up... A deal clincher could be combined VR and presidential elections..Maybe PoR would buy this...but the pres?

President's 'heavies' in court..

Ukrainian Security Service [SBU] personnel in the Administrative appeal court in Kyiv today.

Earlier a group of BYuT parliamentary deputies had blocked the hearing of a complaint from the president's secretariat on the earlier decision of the Kyiv District Administrative Court to annul the president's ukaz calling for early parliamentary elections.

BYuT has accused the president's secretariat of applying undue pressure on the court to force them to restore the President's ukaz, and claim their deputies were in court merely to protect court staff "from pressure applied onto the court body". According to one of deputies, the court has no right to consider the secratariat's appeal until Thursday of next week in any case.

Other sources claim it is the SBU are that are affording 'protection' to three judges of the Administrative appeal court

Deputy head of the Central Electoral Commission Andriy Mahera has said in an interview that his commision has suspended any preparatory work arranging the proposed December 7th elections.

p.s. In a TV debate on 'Shuster Live' PM Yulia Tymoshenko claimed on several occasions that the December 7th parliamentary elections ordered by the president will not take place.

See a lively video of her full performance together with that of Viktor Yanukovych [and transcript] here

Yushchenko's untenable position

As Mustafa Nayem and Serhiy Leshchenko point out in an article in U.P. any Yushchenko-led party standing for election in the proposed December 7th elections will be in an untenable position.

The president in his address to the nation on Wednesday explained that the reason for calling early elections was BYuT's 'betrayal' of its partner NUNS in the democratic coalition.

On returning from the summer recess on September 2nd BYuT promptly voted in concert with PoR to enact laws weakening the president's authority.
Yushchenko said: "The events of 2nd September and those decisions which were accepted in parliament, unconditionally made the [further] existence of the democratic coalition impossible. And from 3rd September, de jure, the collapse of the coalition was announced [by NUNS].

In early VR elections any President-led party will most likely come in third, or worse, the first two places being fought over by PoR and BYuT.

Any rapprochement between BYuT and NUNS is most unlikely as this would mean returning to Tymoshenko powers that president has taken from her by dismissing parliament. Furthermore Tymoshenko and Yushchenko will be slugging it out for the orange electorates' vote in next year's presidential elections.

On the other hand, any hint of movement by the presidential bloc toward PoR will be fully expoited by BYuT as indication of an oligarchic conspiracy between PoR money-bags Rinat Akhmetov, and the president.

LEvko thinks that just over a month ago BYuT and PoR launched a plan that had clearly been prepared during the summer recess to truncate the president's authority. Now PoR are quite keen on early elections because they have a good chance of winning and returning to government. If PoR are back in power after the election how can the president be sure they will not revert back to that same policy as agreed with BYuT during the summer and 'shaft' him again? He knows that as president he could probably live with one opponent..but not with two..hence the presidential secretariat's vicious campaign to destroy the weaker.

It was a PoR-led parliament that was dismissed kicking and screaming by Yushchenko last year. This year it is BYuT. My guess is that there is a lot of capital deposited in PoR's 'grudge bank' last year waiting to be cashed in by PoR if they return to power in the snap election... particularly as there are huge differences on policies between the president and PoR on such key topics as relations with Russia and the Georgia/South Ossetia crisis, NATO, Russian as a second state language etc. And Yulka T. will be hovering to finish off the job too..

Sick of politics

Not a bad little video from 'The Guardian' here on reactions to Yushchenko's calling of snap parliamentary elections.

Censorship

Oh come on Elmer. You're being entirely too modest. Your check cashed just fine this month and what with the CIA money coming our way we have enough to start investing in Russian oil and gas--as soon as they let us in...Yuschenko and his boys, I mean. You know Yuschenko; he's the one responsible for the demise of democracy in Ukraine (parties engaged in personalities because they are... personality parties!), the demise of the rule of law in Ukraine (was there ever any?), the rise in the dollar, the capital outflight this past month (anybody heard Yulia's latest proposal on land? it's a beaut and will go a long way towards clouding every single title in Ukraine) and the crowded electric I ride into town on some mornings. At least it's so crowded I don't have to pay sometimes because the collector can't force his way through. And that has to be Yuschenko too.

Anyway, it's a pleasure doing business with you and we, all the staff, just wish good on ya.

Here we go again..

Tonight on TV president Yushchenko announced that he is terminating the activity of the sixth convocation of the Verkhovna Rada and calling for early parliamentary elections.

"I'm convinced, deeply convinced, the democratic coalition was ruined by one thing - human ambition - the ambition of one person [Yu.T]. A greed for power, a divergence in values, the preference of personal interests over national interests," explained the president.

A date for the new elections has not yet been determined.

Earlier today BYuT parliamentary deputy Ostap Semerak, on BYuT's official site stated that early elections would only be possible on the condition that parliament accepts a decision on their financing and on changes to election law.

"The signing of an ukaz on conducting [parliamentary] elections does not mean they will take place....If there is no concensus amongst deputies about fresh elections then they will not take place." he said.

Another BYuT deputy claimed that the decision to dismiss the VR will only take effect after the official publication of the president's ukaz. "There's an abyss between the ukaz of the president and its realisation. To hurdle over it some people will have to work very hard," he said. BYuT intend to mount a legal challenge on Yushchenko's decision.

Viktor Yanukovych announced that PoR were against fresh elections, but it seems they have they agreed to go along with them. "Having lead the country to ruin, today's authorities have driven society to early parliamentary elections again. PoR were against this...PoR proposed coming to an agreement, not about government posts, but about improving the lot of our people and developing the economy. However, the 'oranges' were only interested in chairs. They wanted so many governmental chairs that a whole furniture factory couldn't satisfy their needs," said Yanukovych [not a bad quip]

'Segodnya' speculates that at least students will not be complaining. During last summer's VR elections those who were employed to wave party flags, attend meetings and distribute election leaflets were paid 100-150 hryven per day. This year, because of the seasonal factor, they will be demanding 200-250 hryven.

LEvko says 70 - 80% of the electorate do not understand the need for fresh elections. Most realize they will not change much anyhow. Any president who ignores this widely-held views of the electorate is taking a big risk..

More pathetic innuendo from Yushchenko..

Today [Tuesday] president Yushchenko conducted a meeting with the NUNS VR fraction.

According to an official report on the president's website: "At the start of the meeting the head of state again gave his assessment of events that took place in the VR on 2nd September, and called them a national betrayal...The president emphasized that "the scenario, which was delivered from abroad, had as its aim to turn the national course through 180 degrees."

He declared that the democratic coalition in its previous form has shown itself to be, in a current political situation, superfluous, "because the plan which they dreamed up against Ukraine, was much more important than negotiations on the daily parliamentary agenda, the Georgia question, the Black Sea fleet."

'Korrespondent' speculates that matters could now develop in three possible ways.

The orange coalition could be re-established again, or BYuT could join forces with PoR - but neither of these is likely.

Yushchenko could dissolve parliament in the near future. A snap December election would primarily be a two-horse race with a Yushchenko-aligned bloc attempting to overcome the 3% threshold.

Or a majority coalition fails to be formed, but Yushchenko does not dismiss parliament. Dissolution of parliament is an alternative for him, but he is not duty-bound to do this. PM Tymoshenko remains in power.

LEvko thinks that Yushchenko has now all but nailed his colours to the mast. If he fails to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections he will be seen as a weak-willed choker. If he does 'go for it' he faces major challenges on the legality of such a move, and possibly a major consitutional crisis.

With the current economic crisis swirling around the globe a functioning parliament is vital for any necessary economic decisions to be debated and ruled upon. The president and his secretariat, which employs well over a thousand staff have no game plan - apart from trotting out vague innuendo..

Election in midst of global crisis?

BYuT spin doctors say "An appeal by prominent members of Ukraine's business community, to avoid a pre-term parliamentary election, appears to have gone unheeded as President Viktor Yushchenko declared his intention to hold consultations on the possible dissolution of parliament on 7 October. On Saturday, his press office confirmed he will give lawmakers until next Tuesday to agree a new coalition and thereafter may dissolve parliament and call the third parliamentary election in as many years."

Yulia Tymoshenko, during her 3rd October press conference following her visit to Moscow, commented on Yushchenko's threat thus: "When the world is being torn apart by a financial crisis it is absolutely irresponsible to cast into political chaos parliament, the government, the [Ukrainian] politicum, the country. I will never support this."

In all of the world's major democracies political parties are rallying together to try and save their countries' citizens from what could be the greatest global finacial calamity in over 60 years. But president Yushchenko will probably dismiss parliament soon and create even more political turmoil...crazy.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's steel-makers, vital to the economy, are in deep trouble.

Tymoshenko's Freudian slip?

A week or so ago I mentioned allegations that president Yushchenko had been selling and supplying illicit Ukrainian-made arms to his pal Makheil Saakashvili at knock-down prices, and that a recent explosion at an ammunition dump may have provided 'cover'.

The sale of Ukrainian arms to Georgia was a thread that ran through Tymoshenko's otherwise cordial talks with president Putin last Thursday.

At their joint press conference Putin said, " We do not know, who made the decision on deliveries of special [military] technology and arms during the conflict. We do not know..but whoever it was, this person has made a huge mistake...it is called getting directly involved in an armed confrontation, pitting the Russian and Ukrainian nations against one another. And if we confirm this, we will break-off contacts with those people which permitted this."

Although Tymoshenko admitted all arms sales are under the control of the president and National Security and Defence Council, she was most cautious in her replies, saying that allegations in these matters have not yet been confirmed, and added that the VR had set up a 'special' investigative committee to investigate further.

But whether intentionally or not, she made a significant slip. The VR has in fact set up a 'temporary' investigative committee, not a 'special' one. According to the Constitution, a 'special' committee is created only for one purpose – the initiation of procedures for impeachment..

Commentators agree that following Tymoshenko's visit to Moscow, Putin has a new favourite in Ukraine -Yu.V.T.

The brave rides...the squaw can walk..

The dispute between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko over who would be using 'the plane' yesterday even made the 'London Times'

Tymoshenko was forced to fly for her important rendezvous with Putin in Moscow yesterday in an 8-seater Slovenian-crewed Cessna after the president 'pulled rank' on account of his aircraft being grounded, and used her plane to fly to Lviv.

'Segodnya' claims Yushchenko's plane was airworthy after all, so there was no reason, apart from bloody-mindedness and sabotage, for him to grab the premier's plane. Other newspapers make the same claim.

LEvko says not too many years ago Tymoshenko, during her United Energy Systems of Ukraine days, used to brag about her company owning an entire airline - SES-Avia...Oh happy days..

Yushchenko's real intentions

Persistent speculation continues that despite agreement to reassemble the orange coalition president Yushchenko intends to dissolve the Ukrainian parliament and sack PM Tymoshenko [yet again].

If the coalition deal is not finalized by midnight Thursday, the president could dissolve parliament.

Statements by him during a press conference in Lviv today show how deep is his mistrust of Tymoshenko. When speaking of the BYuT/NUNS coalition he said: "The spirit of coalition agreement had less value for the premier than the paper it was written on. It's disgusting ['Tse nabrydlo' according to one version]."

[The president's own website carries the same quote in a report on his visit to Lviv entitled: 'The president doubts the sincerity of the intentions of coalition partners during today's voting in parliament', but 'Tse nabrydlo' is replaced by 'this is political charlatanism '.. Hmm.. ]

The article claims that although he welcomes today's cancellation of non constitutional decisions accepted in parliament in early September [by the combined votes of BYuT and PoR], he asks, "What is the guarantee that after 10 days the attention of [our] partners will not [again] be turned and they [the resolutions] will be voted in again? Is this not a threat.. such political behaviour?"

"I am convinced that we can return back, but with changes to [our] responsibilities, to our public behaviour... finally, to force the goverment to work productively, not for the cameras, not for constant shows, but to drive the nation, the economy, forward."

In LEvko's opinion Yushchenko is aware that had Tymoshenko had her way during and after the Orange Revolution, former president Kuchma would be behind bars today. If Tymoshenko were to be elected president in the next presidential elections late next year could he be sure that she would leave him in peace? Can he risk her becoming president?

Yushchenko's own statements today only add substance to the speculation on his true intentions.

p.s. Leading PoR deputy, Taras Chornovil, has resigned from the party. In an interview with the BBC he suggests Yushchenko may be cunningly planning early parliamentary elections for the Orthodox Christmas holidays period. The electorates' current disenchantment with politics and the timing of any such election may mean the necessary 50%+ turn-out required for them to be valid may not be achieved.

BYuT and NUNS agree, but poison remains..

Yulia Tymoshenko has agreed to accept all of NUNS' conditions, and the parliamentary 'Democratic Coalition' now joined by Lytvyn's bloc, are apparently back in business. "We agree to all of the steps which they have proposed..all the conditions, ultimatums, all the arm-twisting," announced Tymoshenko sourly.

Tomorrow, 2nd October, she is going to Moscow for critical talks on supplies of Russian gas to Ukraine. She claimed today that her 'KabMin' had confirmed the directives of both the president and the National Security and Defence Council for the talks.

Just two days ago deputy head of the president's secretariat Andriy Kyslynsky declared on the secretariat's official website that he was convinced that during her visit to Moscow "gas contracts for 2009 are not the #1 topic on the agenda.."

"The first item on the list will be the reciept by Yulia Volodymyrivna of political blessings from the Russian administration. All the rest, including gas contracts, will be just tagged on."

"National interests cannot be the hostages of the premier's political intrigues," emphasized Kyslynsky, in what was just the latest of the secretariat's statements systematically 'rubbishing' Tymoshenko.

Does anyone seriously believe that the new coalition is anything other than the buying of time before the presidential elections get under way? With Tymoshenko around, Yushchenko's chances of a second term of office are extremely low. The never-ending vitriolic criticism of PM Tymoshenko by the President's secretariat is bound to continue..

p.s. a commentator on the current global financial crisis said that when political opponents start agreeing and working together to overcome the crisis, then this is the time to really get worried..

Yushchenko under pressure

In an article in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' US ambassador in Ukraine William Taylor says he will work with any coalition in the Ukrainian parliament, as long as it is formed in a democratic manner. But he also warned Ukrainian authorites against using force or introducing direct presidential rule.

And 'Segodnya' reports that former US ambassador in Ukraine, Steven Pifer, has expressed the opinion that Ukraine will not be granted its NATO Membership Action Plan if the Verkhovna Rada is dissolved by the President. 'Segodnya' considers this political 'arm-twisting' by Pifer is intended to push the Presidential NUNS party back into coalition with BYuT.

The same article, entitled 'Tymoshenko stirring mutiny at Yushchenko's rear' [i.e. inside NUNS], says today a pro-premier [pro-Tymoshenko] fraction is being formed inside the presidential block. Tymoshenko's stated today that if "Parliament is pushed into early elections, then it would be logical to hold simultaneous presidential, and parliamentary elections," [which Yushchenko would almost certainly lose.]

'Segodnya' also claims a parliamentary investigative commission will conclude that president Yushchenko himself was involved with the supply of weaponry to Georgia and to his 'kum' Saakashvili..at a monetary loss to Ukraine of whopping half a billion hryvnya.. Will this scandal have legs?

Ukraine slipping in Corruption rankings

Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2008 has Ukraine dropping to 134th place, down from last year's 118th place.

I seem to recall during the Orange Revolution President Viktor Yushchenko appeared on the Maydan expressing shame at Ukraine's 122th position - between Sudan and Cameroon or similar.. Corruption is not something Ukrainian politicians talk about much these days...

Some sense from Kluyev

PoR deputy Andriy Kluyev was allegedly one of the darkest of the 2004 Orange Revolution election fraud plotters. Recently there have been stories in the Ukrainian media that he has been the main PoR liason man in efforts by one wing of PoR to assemble a new parliamentary coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko's BYuT following NUNS walk- out from their democratic parliamentary coalition with BYuT.

Kluyvev has written a well-reasoned article entitled 'Becoming a country of realized possibilities' for the current 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', which I recommend reading. He argues any coalition is better than the early parliamentary elections sought by president Yushchenko.

I've translated and paraphrased some portions below:

"Since 2004, in Ukraine, the authorities in power have practically not been able to function. The constant political stand-offs, both within the walls of parliament and between the President and the cabinet of ministers, have led to the disintegration of state institutions. Conflicts within the 'orange camp' are most apparent. The work of the organs of power organs and judicial is particularly politicized.

Politicians and ordinary citizens have become weary of this. The myth that inactivity of the authorities is good for the economy sounds reasonable, but is unrealistic."

Kluyev calls for a long-term development program to be written for the country to increase the quality of life of its citizens. The key tasks are to increase the lifespan of Ukraine's citizens by ten years and reduce mortality particularly amongst people of working age, reform public health services, modernization of the pension system, development programs for infrastructure, and improving the education system and science.

For this to be achieved the economy has to grow. In all of these questions the positions of the country's main political forces practically coincide. The reasons for differences lie in personal ambitions, and also in questions most of which concern the past.

The judical disintegration of the current unworkable "democratic" coalition forces the country's politicians either to negotiate and compromise, or to go again for senseless and unnecessary early elections. Today everyone recognizes that without a change in the legislative rules any elections will change nothing, but will only increase polarization and deliver a further blow to the economy. Therefore it is important to come to some agreement.

The [recent] renewal of the full operation of parliament [and the co-operation of PoR and BYuT] has shown that this can be productive, but it is is just a first step.

"I am sure that any working coalition will be more beneficial for the country than sequential elections. Moreover, from the point of view of the interests of the country, any configuration of those being discussed today would be acceptable. The coalition could even be 'technical' - just for solving the most urgent problems - the stabilization of the economic situation, and also for introducing legislation changes, which would make it possible to minimize conflicts amongst those in power.

It is at the same time obvious that creation of any coalition will be difficult, taking into account future presidential elections and ideological differences between main political forces, so that the probability of early parliamentary elections is very high. But soon after, the battle for the presidential post will begin, and the current crisis will automatically be prolonged by one-and-a-half years..which could result in social and economic upheavals comparable to those of the crises in the '90's.

The country's elites must finally understand that decline of the population and economic stagnation threaten the security of Ukraine considerably more than the artificially fanned conflicts with neighbours. We should put aside the topics causing conflict and concentrate on the main priorities. I'm pleased to say that understanding the importance of consolidation of the elites around productive aims is gradually filtering through to my politician friends. I hope that this understanding will give to the Ukraine chance to become a country of realized possibilities."

The main political groups in parliament have about 4 weeks to come to agreement on forming a coalition. Weighing heavily in their minds is how joining any such coalition could affect their ratings. Kluyev seems to be appealing for politicians to look at the broader picture - an honorable position for someone normally associated with sinister behind-the-scenes dealing.

Nemyria in BBC interview

The vice Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria talks to Stephen Sackur tonight on BBC's 'Hardtalk' here.

Don't miss his impressive, eloquent performance.

The worst market crisis in 60 years

Writing on wall many months ago..

Bohatyryova interview

The current political crisis in Ukraine could be said to have started when National Security and Defence Council secretary, Raisa Bohatyryova was sacked from her PoR party following statements in Washington that were generally supportive of President Yushchenko's policy on last month's Russian-Georgian war. In previous VR convocations she had been leader of the PoR faction.

'Obozrevatel' has conducted a most interesting interview with her, entitled: "I will not return to Yanukovych, even if he drops to his knees," which I recommend everyone to read.

She speaks revealingly of serious rifts within PoR, but today I will translate some just these portions:

Qu: Those, who await your further steps and actions, see you as a potential leader, possibly an alternative to Yanukovych. Experts are sure that the creation of a new political project headed by Bohatyryova is just a matter of time. More so because Rinat Akhmetov, [Ukraine's richest oligarch] is ready you to support you.

(Significantly, after a pause..) I am considering my possible perspectives at the moment.

Qu: Party [perspectives]?

I'm examining all possible possibilities. I do not intend to leave active politics. I can't say what my next steps will be.

{Bohatyryova then does not deny that she may be involved in some kind of new political project together Arsene Yatsenyuk [the current VR speaker] and Anatoliy Hrytsenko [until recently, a minister of defence], and that Rinat Akhmetov could be bankrolling it all.}

Qu: Do you agree that early elections are now practically inevitable?
I do not see any other way to deal with the [current] crisis. In the opinion experts, it's further development could lead to an anti-state coup.

Qu: The democratic coalition will not be ressurrected then?
[No,] This is unrealistic. Tymoshenko does not want it...

Qu: Responsibility for the integrity of the union between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko is shared between them. However, the actions of the latter clearly did not further the strengthening of the coalition.
This is not so. As the President, Victor Andriyovych did everything in order not to permit the crisis [to grow and] develop.

Qu: And his Secretariat supported him in this?! Particularly Baloha and Kislinsky?
I am not the attorney of the Secretariat and moreover not its leader. Accordingly, I cannot comment on the activity of his colleagues.

Qu: You have known Yanukovych for many years. Tell us, is he actually capable of establishing a union with Tymoshenko, or is this bluff?
The prospects for the forming of coalition PoR and BYuT depend more greatly on Tymoshenko. If the smell of power is sweet for Yanukovych then I do not exclude it, an alliance with the pretext of the interest of each Ukrainian may be created. However, it won't last long - a divorce scandal is inevitable. And as a result PoR will finally be demoralized and will lose voters...

Certainly, if BYuT agrees to embody PoR policies, including those on language issues, citizenship, non aligned status, the realization of constitutional changes, then these two antipodes could combine and collaborate. But I do not believe this scenario. At the same time fear of Viktor Yushchenko could push Yulia Tymoshenko into a situational alliance with PoR. Such a political incest could happen...

..PoR and BYuT do not have the three hundred votes necessary for changing the Constitution. All statements about complete control of the deputies of the two fractions is bravado, just as in the previous years. One coalition has already bragged about the presence of the constitutional majority, which, after checking, turned out not to be the case...

LEvko thinks she may be correct in this final statement. Up to about 70 PoR deputies are from Rinat Akhmetov's 'personal quota'. He has allegedly been PoR's biggest financial backer so will have a big say on how the crisis now pans out.

p.s. On Friday the President, his daughter, Raisa Bohatyryova, Rinat Akhmetov, and other 'prominenti' attended an exhibition of sculptures from the Paris Louvre which are being displayed in Kyiv. Why do so many of them look like stone-faced aliens?

Yushchenko dangerously out of touch with reality

Ever louder whispers are being heard that President Yushchenko will dismiss the Ukrainian parliament [VR] soon, if a formal coalition between BYuT and Party of Regions is created. NUNS [the president's bloc] walked out of what was the majority ruling coalition in the VR recently because of major disagreements with BYuT.

There would be no legal basis for the dismissal of the VR, but Yushchenko will blame Tymoshenko for "revision of the will of the electorate" if she 'mucks in' with Yanukovych.

This is a highly dangerous path to follow. PoR and BYuT are by far the two largest parties in Ukrainian politics and were fairly elected into parliament. By and large they do represent the will of those who voted them in. Yushchenko dismissed parliament last year on the flimsiest of legal grounds. Does he imagine he could get away with it a second time around?

Interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko told journalists today that he would not allow clashes between power structures to take place in the event of any solution by force of the current political crisis. He considers "The party of war, with Baloha [head of the president's secretariat] at its head, could push for a force scenario."

p.s. The 'Unian' press agency are running an on-line poll, asking its website visitors if they approve the creation of a PoR-BYuT coalition. Over 10,000 have voted; almost 67% of respondents said 'Yes'..

NU in bad shape for any early elections

Kommersant run a story which I have summarised below:

"Our Ukraine" [NU] has begun active preparations for extraordinary parliamentary elections. Following a meeting of the party leadership with president Victor Yushchenko members of "Our Ukraine" agree that their union with BYuT has come to an end. However, NU have a problem - from the first five of the NUNS block list in last year's parliamentary elections, only one - Vyacheslav Kirilenko, would remain on their list.

NUNS VR deputy Xenia Lyapina told 'Kommersant' that her party considered the most realistic scenario is that BYuT will go into coalition with PoR. Another NU member said active preparations for prescheduled parliamentary elections have already begun.

First on the NUNS list in last year's VR election was Yuriy Lutsenko, but his National Self-Defence party has now burnt its bridges with NU. They could possibly link up with BYuT if BYuT are agreeable to this.

VR chairman Arseniy Yatseniuk, who was third on the NUNS list, apparently refuses to be a part of "Our Ukraine". He allegedly spent last week in active negotiations on his political future and is considering creating his own political project. The are rumours that Yatsenyuk has spoken to businessman Rinat Akhmetov who could be ready to financially support the political project as long as head of the National Security and Defence Council, Raisa Bohatyryova, who is quite close to Akhmetov but who has just been kicked out of PoR, should be second in command. But Akhmetov's close associate Boris Kolesnikov claims he knows nothing about such plans.

Former minister of defence Anatoliy Hrytsenko [number 4 on the NUNS list last time around] is considering starting his own political project also.

Number 5 on the NUNS block list was Mykola Katerynchuk, but he already heads the European party of Ukraine and they will probably enter any elections independently.

NUNS deputies are privately admitting that President Yushchenko could dissolve the VR yet again if a coalition which does not suit him is assembled. PoR VR deputy Vadim Kolesnichenko claims: "A military coup is being prepared in Ukraine..and the process of preparation to topple constitutional order in Ukraine has entered an active practical phase."

However, PM Yulia Tymoshenko says: “At present we are not discussing any other configuration of coalition apart from the democratic coalition. And I request that absolutely all provocations on this topic be stopped," So there...

Normal situation for democracy?

President Yushchenko seems to be living in his own fantasy world. In a conversation with journalists in Paris after today's 12th EU-Ukraine summit, when asked about the current political situation in Ukraine, he told them, "There is no crisis, this is a normal situation for democracy." He obviously missed PM Yulia Tymoshenko's two-hour diatribe against him yesterday.

But the ground may be crumbling under his feet. According to Defence minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, ministers allocated from the President's quota and from NUNS intend to take part in all further cabinet meetings. "We will [continue] to work, and believe me, we will work responsibly," said the minister.

And in last night's TV interview, Yulia Tymoshenko claimed that the Prosecutor-General's office has refused to set up a working group to investigate her 'state treason' alleged by the President's secretariat. If this is true, it indicates that Yushchenko's control over the 'sylovyky' is not as great as he had hoped.

Several political 'big-beasts' including interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko, former foreign affairs minister Borys Tarasyuk, and former defence minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko did not support the break-up of the NUNS-BYuT coalition late in the evening on 2nd September when 39 out of 64 NUNS deputies voted to walk out of the NUNS-BYuT coalition. According to the VR 'reglament' the 'divorce' officially takes place on the eleventh day after this resolution was adopted.

Many NUNS deputies are now in a state of panic over possible fresh elections. They are demanding Yushchenko settles his differences with Tymoshenko and sacks troublemaker-in-chief, head of the president's secretariat, Viktor Baloha.

But even if BYuT wer to form a new ruling coalition with 'Regiony' within the allotted 30 day period, President Yushchenko may dismiss parliament in any case, even though no legal basis would exist for this. This is a normal situation for democracy, no?

Predicting the future

There is some interesting speculation in today's 'Segodnya' on how events could develop in Ukrainian politics. Below is a very rough translation:

The political crisis in the Ukraine continues. In response to Yushchenko's ultimatum to adopt a resolution condemning "Russian aggression" against Georgia and demands to cancel recently approved anti-presidential laws, Yulia Tymoshenko advanced her conditions for reconciliation. She demanded the president apologizes for accusing her of state betrayal, but added she does not hold out much hope for this.

There are two realistic possibilities on how matters may develop. The first is the creation of a PoR and BYuT coalition. However the business-wing in 'Regiony', and many of the Western Ukrainian deputies and companions-in-arms of Viktor Pynzenyk in BYuT are not agreeable to this.

The second possibility is early elections, if the above-mentioned coalition fails to be constructed. Two other versions of the course of events cannot be discounted entirely, i.e. the restoration of the NUNS-BYuT coalition, or the creation of the broad NUNS-PoR coalition.

'Segodnya' gives the good and bad points of each possibility:

1. The revival of the BYuT-NUNS coalition could ensure an offer of MAP from NATO in December, but could also lead to a collapse in negotiations on the price of Russian gas, causing great pain to industrial and domestic consumers. Parliament, where the coalition does not an absolute majority, would be further paralyzed at least until the presidential elections to be held at the end of 2009.

2. The creation of a BYuT-PoR coalition would be a 'first' for Ukraine so predicting how such an arrangement would 'pan out' is difficult. However, the government would, maybe, at long last, be able to pass in the VR, at least the most basic necessary laws (e.g. changes in the budget). Furthermore, the alliance of these two largest parties which, combined, total over 300 votes, could, in half a year, change the constitution and affirm a normal system of authority, clarifying who is 'top dog' in the country - the President or premier.

To the pluses of this coalition could be added the normalization of relations with Russia. This coalition could quite realistically agree with Moscow a small increase only in the price of gas, furthermore, if 'Regionaly' are persistent, then the government could 'back off' on Ukrainianization, removing some stresses in the southeast of the country.

On the economy there could be two outcomes - one good and one bad. Tymoshenko's desire to increase her popularity amongst the electorate by means of generous social programs could be combined with the economic pragmatism of 'Regionaly'. Alternatively, businessmen from BYuT and PoR could dictate political progress by excessive lobbying of their own business- interests, increasing corruption.

3.The break-up of parliament and early elections would see a sharp rise in social payments to the electorate by the current government, to be paid off by any incoming government, increasing inflation. Talks with Russia would be put 'on hold' because of the uncertainty of who is in charge of the country. Internal investment would decrease. There would be a sharp increase in the tension in the country on the question of the war in Georgia war and relations with Russia, with ever more deepening divisions in society. Finally, the elections may not provide any change to the current stalement, so the same political chaos that exists now could remain for a long time in the future.

4. Broad PoR-NUNS coalition. This could only take place if 'Regiony' back-down from its fundamental positions on NATO and Russian language, or in case of a volte-face on these questions by NUNS and Yushchenko.

Tymoshenko proposes three scenarios to break present deadlock [in English] here

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Meanwhile 'Kontrakty' expresses the opinion that the many Russian business interests in Ukraine would prevent any repetition of the Georgian scenario in Ukraine. Ukrainian experts on security issues consider a military conflict impossible.

It is indicative that despite the military conflict between Russia and Georgia and the strain in relations that followed it, no new trading war has developed. Russia did not stop gas delivery to Georgia or fuel transits to Armenia. And Georgia does not intend to restrict the import of goods from Russia.

Russian companies have large investment holdings in Georgia, e.g. in electric power generation, banking, chemicals, petroleum products and telecommunications. The same is true of Ukraine.

Desperate comments from pres's secretariat

The Ukrainian President's press service posted the following on the pres's website last night:

The PM's reluctance to obey the fair demands of the President testifies the non Ukrainian origin of the Ukrainian crisis scenario - A. Kyslynskyi [deputy head of the pres's secretariat]

"An impression is being formed that PM Tymoshenko is enduring a psychological crisis linked to the unsuitability of her own ambitions and national interests of Ukraine." This is the only way that absence of adequate reactions [by her] to the latest events, particularly the President's ultimatum, can be explained.

"It is difficult to call the schoolboy jokes with which the head of government 'amuses' the country the position of a serious politician."

"One can assume that the reluctance of the PM to give an honest assessment to the events in Georgia and their possible influence on Ukraine may be the result of her fear of being refused entry to Russia again. There are no other rational explanations for the anti-constitutional acts, i.e. voting for anti-state laws, by the new BYuT coalition, PoR, and Communists, which upset the balance of the system of authority in the country," said Kysynskyi, adding, "It is clear that the possible support from Russia in future presidential elections weigh more heavily for Yulia Tymoshenko than defending of the national interests of her own country."

p.s. Some experts are talking of the possibility that the political crisis in Ukraine may be resolved by force.

BYuT-PoR coalition likely

"Segodnya" carries this story entitled:

BYuT: Coalition with 'Regiony' is better than the re-elections

Neither Party of Regions nor BYuT are hiding the fact that they are actively conducting negotiations on the creation of a new coalition.

According to 'Segodnya's' sources in BYuT, the union between Regionaly and 'Byutovtsi' will be legalized by the end September. "BYuT are categorically against early elections. The majority of 'Byutovtsi', in particular those from the eastern, southern and central regions, consider that a coalition with PoR is absolutely natural. It is somewhat difficult for the representatives from western regions, it is more complex for them to explain this union to its voters. But in any event they understand that a new coalition is more advantageous than re-elections. And the last eight months with NUNS were not easy and pleasant", explained the source.

PoR spokesman Taras Chornovil told "Segodnya" that PoR has now walked out of "stupid" negotiations with NUNS. "I'm so pleased about this! Now, as a party spokesman I don't have to give false statements that we are still trying to come to some agreement with someone. Yes, there are people in PoR who were drawn into negotiations with the Bank St. [president's secretariat], and now we are seriously reorienting [our position]. But as you may have noticed, in recent days these people and the entire fraction, voted for the joint agreements made by PoR and BYuT. And I've heard that even Akhmetov has already said that to it is easier to come to an agreement with Tymoshenko [rather than Yushchenko]. Working with Bank Street is political suicide, everyone understands this. As to early elections or coalition with BYuT - I prefer the latter. And I can assure you - the probability of this coalition is very large. But we are not conducting negotiations [on this], because we need to give BYuT the chance to officially leave the previous coalition".

Meanwhile on Bank Street they do not believe in the union of Tymoshenko Yanukovych. "BYuT and PoR will not be glued together so simply. Tymoshenko will in any event remain premier, and Yanukovych will be made speaker. But this distribution is not equivalent, and problems will appear," a source from the President's secretariat told "Segodnya".
For this very reason the presidential team is counting on early elections, which must take place at the beginning, and at latest, by the middle of December. "A coalition between BYuT and Regionaly, will hit Tymoshenko's positions in the western regions, so elections could substantially change the political distribution", said the source.

['Segodnya' is published by one of Akhmetov's companies]

Other commentators agree that all bridges have now been burned between Yulka T and Yushchenko - the same goes for Yanukovych and any possibility of a PoR/NUNS grand coalition. For the first time in all the years of their existence, both PoR and BYuT totally trusted on another to stick to previously-made agreements and to vote in a co-ordinated fashion in the VR last week.

The Russian-Georgian conflict caused the abscess in the democratic coalition that had been festering for months and which no-one wanted to squeeze, to finally burst.

Unchartered waters for Ukraine's politicians

President Yushchenko's fevered statement on the events in the Verkhovna Rada [in English] here

Tymoshenko's response [in Ukrainian] here

The tone of her response is noticeably more calming and measured that the president's, but includes passages of pure electioneering.

It also includes these passages:

"From tomorrow I am starting consultations with all political parties in parliament in order to create a system of consolidation, in order to finally stop discord, [and] in order to create a centre of stability in parliament and government..."

"I am happy that today parliament is voting 'like clockwork'. Yesterday all laws without exclusion were accepted to raise [the efficency of] the coal mining branch. Today we accepted all decisions and changes to the budget, enabling us to raise wages ...And every day parliament and government will make those decisions that you expect."

"I think that the politicum have worn the country out with early elections. We need to work and not cast the country into crisis every time..."

Is she going to try and assemble a government of national unity with some PoR ministers in her cabinet, and side-line the president?

Both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have both been driven out of office by Yushchenko in the period since the Orange Revolution. LEvko does not believe either will permit history to repeat itself. This is a major constitutional crisis.

p.s. There are some reports that the president has called secret meetings with his 'sylovyky' today..

Sensations in VR

The Ukrainian parliament [Verkhovna Rada] returned to work after the summer recess in what was a most turbulent day. BYuT, PoR and the Communists voted together to change the law on the Cabinet of Ministers, significantly weakening the powers of the President with respect to the KabMin and parliament. The BYuT/PoR/Communists grouping garnered well in excess of a constitutional majority of 300 votes - there is already some talk of impeachment of the president..

The VR, by 362 votes, changed the law on the Security Serice of Ukraine [SBU] and removed the President's powers to appoint and sack the SBU's leadership. It is proposed that this function be transferred into the hands of the VR.

Looks like the ruling BYuT/NUNS coalition is now belly up, dead in the water.

The Verkhovna Rada rejected making any declaration on the situation in Georgia. All the draft resolutions submitted by parliamentary factions in the Rada for consideration on this matter failed to receive the minimum 226 MPs' votes. The parliament also refused to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

VR speaker Yatsenyuk has run away from his chair, declaring, "The collapse of the ruling coalition will not happen with my hands." The remainder of the sitting was led by a newly-appointed deputy.

There was some truth in the rumours that Yulka T had been plotting on the high seas during her summer hols. then.

LEvko thinks Yushchenko has brought much of this about himself. In 2005 he sacked the then PM Yulia Tymshenko together with her government. Last year he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a legally most dubious manner. This year his secretariat's constant unfounded accusations of treachery directed at Tymoshenko and her government have become a bad joke. In the latest macabre twist the head of the pres's secretariat Viktor Baloha, in a letter to the acting head of the SBU, claims Tymoshenko is planning to 'eliminate' him. He says there are plans to poison him, kill him in a staged automobile accident, or to shoot or to blow him up. Even the 'Donbass' daily recently sprung to the defence of PM Yulia Tymoshenko from these never-ending assaults.

Maybe more later..

Update : NUNS have just 'pulled the plug' on the NUNS/BYuT coalition. VR deputies now have 30 days to cobble together a new ruling coalition or else new elections will take place.

Ukrainians seriously worried by Georgian conflict

An O.P. in 'Unian' reveals 48.5% of Ukrainians consider conflict similar to that in Georgia could occur in Ukraine.

40.4% of those questioned disagreed with this point of view. Nevertheless, 47.4% see dangers for Ukraine in the Russian-Georgian conflict.

Clearly, large numbers of Ukrainians are seriously worried about recent events in Georgia.
p.s. I can recommend an analytical article from 'Der Spiegel' [in English] entitled 'The Cold Peace'. It claims there is OSCE evidence that Saakashvili 'drew first' by attacking civilian targets, contrary to his repeated assertions that he did not. The article also highlights the statements and suggestions by Russian officials, particularly on the question of Crimea, that are making Ukrainians so nervous [see above].

Also well worth reading is 'Spiegel's excellent account [in English] of how the events leading to war in Georgia unfolded.

Putin the tiger tamer

Who will be the next target for Putin's tranquilliser gun?

[Check out this video explaining how 'a miracle' saved a TV crew]