The following has been posted on the Party of Regions' official website:
"Foreign political partners of the Party of Regions congratulated it on the XIII Congress, which took place in Kyiv on Saturday, March 17.
The congratulations on the Congress, during which it was announced the merger of the Party of Regions and "Strong Ukraine", sent:
- National Council of the Bulgarian Socialist Party;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of China;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam;
- Political Council of the Party "Yeni Azerbaijan";
- Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Party "United Russia" Boris Gryzlov;
- Chairman of "Prosperous Armenia" Gagik Tsarukyan.
Press Service of the Party of Regions"
And that's it....
Almost a 'Nobby no-mates' party then....
p.s. Other stories covered on the PoR site: "Serhiy Kivalov: Someone benefits from artificial worsening of relations between Ukraine and the Council of Europe" [?!]
Sunday, March 18, 2012
Criminal lawlessness by 'mazhory' may eventually lead to civil disorder
Several days ago in Mykolayiv, 18-year old Oksana Makar was allegedly raped by three 'mazhory', sons of privileged elite parents, and then set on fire. She has had several limbs amputated and her life hangs in the balance. Two of the three suspects were released shortly after their arrest. Spontaneous ad-hoc protests sprung up, and as a result this diabolical event has figured prominently in news bulletins and political tv shows, and had led to much critical self-examination of Ukrainian society.
Since then, a similarly dreadful event has occurred in Simferopol.
Most Ukrainians agree that there now exists an entire caste of unruly untouchables who can simply pay off any law enforcement or judicial agency in order that their misdemeanours go unpunished. Barely a week goes by without their behaviour causing deaths amongst the innocent. Apart from the odd glib statement from ruling politicians, this shocking phenomenon remains unchecked.
Brazen flouting of the law, particularly by 'chinovnyky' and their offspring is encountered on a daily basis. Trust in the police, state prosecutors and judges is almost non existent.
My guess is the issue of law and order would figure very highly on the Ukrainian electorate's list of concerns - and yet these matters are not addressed by politicians with any of the seriousness encountered in Western democracies.
Despite being regarded of a nation of stoics, there are limits to what the man in the street will put up with. A Russian political analyst, Andrei Okara, in a 'U.P' blog, claims that recent resonant, despicable acts of violence against girls in Mykolayiv and Simferopol could be a detonator for public anger in Ukraine:
"If it were not for a student protest rally by 10 people before the regional department of Ministry of Internal Affairs' offices in Mykolayiv, the story would not have come to public prominence. Without this picket no-one would have gotten to know about it. All the detainees would have been released and the story would have been: the girl raped three boys from respectable families and then, realizing the gravity of her deed, doused himself with gasoline and set herself on fire. But the existence of a civil society ensured the events became publicly known and widely discussed," emphasized the analyst.
"These two terrible tragedies are an example of how everyday feudal reality intrudes into our lives. The cup of patience of the Ukrainian people is beginning to overflow. The story of [Yanukovych's] Mezhyhirya [palace], the story of the president's helicopter, the story of Peysazh Avenue [the brazen urban land grab of a public space in Kyiv by developers], now the story of these mazhory who raped and tried to burn a girl alive. As a result, a public vendetta against the government may spring up. This government does not know how to respond to these situations and their sole reaction - Yanukovych's social initiative, takes the form of bribing the electorate with a thousand hryvnia [in pre-election hand-outs]. Most people will recognise this as a crude attempt to buy the sympathy of voters, "said the expert.
"The latest horror was an analgous situation in Simferopol [where local residents discovered the body of a girl, that had been mauled by dogs. According to the Crimean media, the girl had been beaten, raped and left by the side of the roadway]. And every time it turns out that the children of those in government are absolutely immune from blame and punishment. It is always the victim's fault. This is a very powerful detonator for public anger and discontent which could create conditions for a revolutionary situation in Ukraine," concluded Okara.
[Note on the night of 9/10th March, three people allegedly lured 18-year-old Oksana Makar into an apartment after they had met in a bar. She was then serially raped. When the victim threatened to tell the police, one of the suspects began to strangle her. Believing that she is dead, the perpetrators carried her body to an abandoned construction site and set her fire. ]
Since then, a similarly dreadful event has occurred in Simferopol.
Most Ukrainians agree that there now exists an entire caste of unruly untouchables who can simply pay off any law enforcement or judicial agency in order that their misdemeanours go unpunished. Barely a week goes by without their behaviour causing deaths amongst the innocent. Apart from the odd glib statement from ruling politicians, this shocking phenomenon remains unchecked.
Brazen flouting of the law, particularly by 'chinovnyky' and their offspring is encountered on a daily basis. Trust in the police, state prosecutors and judges is almost non existent.
My guess is the issue of law and order would figure very highly on the Ukrainian electorate's list of concerns - and yet these matters are not addressed by politicians with any of the seriousness encountered in Western democracies.
Despite being regarded of a nation of stoics, there are limits to what the man in the street will put up with. A Russian political analyst, Andrei Okara, in a 'U.P' blog, claims that recent resonant, despicable acts of violence against girls in Mykolayiv and Simferopol could be a detonator for public anger in Ukraine:
"If it were not for a student protest rally by 10 people before the regional department of Ministry of Internal Affairs' offices in Mykolayiv, the story would not have come to public prominence. Without this picket no-one would have gotten to know about it. All the detainees would have been released and the story would have been: the girl raped three boys from respectable families and then, realizing the gravity of her deed, doused himself with gasoline and set herself on fire. But the existence of a civil society ensured the events became publicly known and widely discussed," emphasized the analyst.
"These two terrible tragedies are an example of how everyday feudal reality intrudes into our lives. The cup of patience of the Ukrainian people is beginning to overflow. The story of [Yanukovych's] Mezhyhirya [palace], the story of the president's helicopter, the story of Peysazh Avenue [the brazen urban land grab of a public space in Kyiv by developers], now the story of these mazhory who raped and tried to burn a girl alive. As a result, a public vendetta against the government may spring up. This government does not know how to respond to these situations and their sole reaction - Yanukovych's social initiative, takes the form of bribing the electorate with a thousand hryvnia [in pre-election hand-outs]. Most people will recognise this as a crude attempt to buy the sympathy of voters, "said the expert.
"The latest horror was an analgous situation in Simferopol [where local residents discovered the body of a girl, that had been mauled by dogs. According to the Crimean media, the girl had been beaten, raped and left by the side of the roadway]. And every time it turns out that the children of those in government are absolutely immune from blame and punishment. It is always the victim's fault. This is a very powerful detonator for public anger and discontent which could create conditions for a revolutionary situation in Ukraine," concluded Okara.
[Note on the night of 9/10th March, three people allegedly lured 18-year-old Oksana Makar into an apartment after they had met in a bar. She was then serially raped. When the victim threatened to tell the police, one of the suspects began to strangle her. Believing that she is dead, the perpetrators carried her body to an abandoned construction site and set her fire. ]
Monday, March 12, 2012
Lesson for Verkhovna Rada from British parliament
Last month in the British House of Commons, Labour MP Eric Joyce physically attacked four politicians in a drunken assault. He was arrested by police and charged.
After a court trial last week in which he pleaded guilty, Joyce was handed a 12-month community order. He was lucky to avoid imprisonment; fined £3,000 and told to pay £350 to each of his victims plus costs.
He was suspended from his party; today publicly apologised in the parliament chamber for his behaviour, then resigned from the Labour party.
Read more and see video of Joyce's personal parliamentary statement here. Despite his behaviour last month he remains a man of honour.
In Ukraine he could have been promoted to the cabinet of ministers - maybe as Minster of Defence, just like Dmytro Salamatin, who lead a vicious assault against opposition deputies in the Verkhovna Rada just over a year ago, resulting in several victims being hospitalised.
At the time Yanukovych dismissed the whole incident as merely a disagreement between men, emotions that boiled over....got a bit out of hand... Perhaps only a president with such a deeply violent, criminal past would not be embarrassed to appoint Salamatin to head the MoD...
More from 'F.N.' on this here
p.s. "Council of Europe examines detention conditions and ill-treatment by police in Ukraine. Jagland concerned about Tymoshenko’s health"
Today's CoE press release here
After a court trial last week in which he pleaded guilty, Joyce was handed a 12-month community order. He was lucky to avoid imprisonment; fined £3,000 and told to pay £350 to each of his victims plus costs.
He was suspended from his party; today publicly apologised in the parliament chamber for his behaviour, then resigned from the Labour party.
Read more and see video of Joyce's personal parliamentary statement here. Despite his behaviour last month he remains a man of honour.
In Ukraine he could have been promoted to the cabinet of ministers - maybe as Minster of Defence, just like Dmytro Salamatin, who lead a vicious assault against opposition deputies in the Verkhovna Rada just over a year ago, resulting in several victims being hospitalised.
At the time Yanukovych dismissed the whole incident as merely a disagreement between men, emotions that boiled over....got a bit out of hand... Perhaps only a president with such a deeply violent, criminal past would not be embarrassed to appoint Salamatin to head the MoD...
More from 'F.N.' on this here
p.s. "Council of Europe examines detention conditions and ill-treatment by police in Ukraine. Jagland concerned about Tymoshenko’s health"
Today's CoE press release here
Tymoshenko's imprisonment could affect Euro 2012?
Letter from Eurasian Transition Group to UEFA chairman about current political situation and possible influence on Euro 2012's in Ukraine this summer, signed by many EU 'top bananas' here
..."Although the UEFA is not a political institution, we know that the organization's power does not end at the football stadium. But as the EURO 2012 was and is one of the most important sportive and social events in Europe, it also gives an example, how society, European organizations and sport can have an influence on political surpression in regimes like Ukraine.
You might heard that some managers of successful European football teams already announced, that they will boycott the Ukrainian EURO 2012, not traveling to the country, even not watching it on TV.
Therefore, we would like to ask you as the President of the UEFA not to close your eyes on what is happening in the Ukraine. Please mention the issues of political suppression and injustice in public, talk about it with Ukrainian officials and the government..."
..."Although the UEFA is not a political institution, we know that the organization's power does not end at the football stadium. But as the EURO 2012 was and is one of the most important sportive and social events in Europe, it also gives an example, how society, European organizations and sport can have an influence on political surpression in regimes like Ukraine.
You might heard that some managers of successful European football teams already announced, that they will boycott the Ukrainian EURO 2012, not traveling to the country, even not watching it on TV.
Therefore, we would like to ask you as the President of the UEFA not to close your eyes on what is happening in the Ukraine. Please mention the issues of political suppression and injustice in public, talk about it with Ukrainian officials and the government..."
Friday, March 09, 2012
Who is going to pay for the pre-election carrots?
In an excellent bni analysis article, Graham Stack, explains:
"Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves, essential to supporting the country's fixed exchange rate, have fallen by nearly one-quarter since August, and are now hovering at only a fortnight over the three-month import cover regarded as minimum. With global steel prices on which Ukraine depends continuing to slide and the price of Russian imported gas soaring, it is time for Kyiv to look for external help – but that's easier said than done.
Ukraine's central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), reported March 6 that its forex reserves had fallen to only $31bn, which it said is sufficient to finance imports of goods and services for only three-and-a-half months. The central banker's rule-of-thumb says that three months import cover is a minimum to support a currency, giving Kyiv a fortnight to put things right..."
Stack concludes:
"Ukraine's best bet now – aside of course from releasing Tymoshenko and Lutsenko – is that the newly-elected Putin, looking to get off to a good start with Ukraine and his foreign policy, might now choose to soften these conditions [relating to the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas] in return for some woolly commitment by Kyiv to the Eurasian bloc.
Putin has said his first foreign visit as president would be to a CIS state and this likely means Ukraine. But Putin's inauguration is scheduled for May, so he won't make it to Kyiv in his new role for another six weeks. And with the pace of events heating up as Greece and Europe wobble, this may even prove too late for Ukraine."
The EU are in no mood to sign political-association and free-trade deals while opposition leaders remain in jail. The IMF feel the same way about additional loans for the same reason.
Meanwhile, earlier this week president Yanukovych announced a $2Bn pre-election 'blow-out' to boost Party of Regions' sagging prospects in the October 28th parliamentary elections.
Something is gonna have to give...
-----------------------------
Meanwhile the macabre Tymoshenko soap opera continues..
Deutsche Welle report:
"Tymoshenko needs treatment outside of confines of prison, say German doctors.
According to German doctors, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is so seriously ill that she needs treatment [that can only be provided] outside of prison.
Representatives of the Berlin University Hospital "Charite", who examined the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko believe that because of the severity of her illness, she needs urgent treatment, "if at all possible, outside prison". To conduct the necessary therapy according to international standards inside prison is impossible "because of its complexity"...
Ukrainian and German doctors "came to a consensus" on the diagnosis of the former prime minister. Tymoshenko feels very ill and needs immediate treatment.."
The former PM has complained of health problems for many months. All of this begs the question: "Why has she not received the best treatment possible for all of this time?
"Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves, essential to supporting the country's fixed exchange rate, have fallen by nearly one-quarter since August, and are now hovering at only a fortnight over the three-month import cover regarded as minimum. With global steel prices on which Ukraine depends continuing to slide and the price of Russian imported gas soaring, it is time for Kyiv to look for external help – but that's easier said than done.
Ukraine's central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), reported March 6 that its forex reserves had fallen to only $31bn, which it said is sufficient to finance imports of goods and services for only three-and-a-half months. The central banker's rule-of-thumb says that three months import cover is a minimum to support a currency, giving Kyiv a fortnight to put things right..."
Stack concludes:
"Ukraine's best bet now – aside of course from releasing Tymoshenko and Lutsenko – is that the newly-elected Putin, looking to get off to a good start with Ukraine and his foreign policy, might now choose to soften these conditions [relating to the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas] in return for some woolly commitment by Kyiv to the Eurasian bloc.
Putin has said his first foreign visit as president would be to a CIS state and this likely means Ukraine. But Putin's inauguration is scheduled for May, so he won't make it to Kyiv in his new role for another six weeks. And with the pace of events heating up as Greece and Europe wobble, this may even prove too late for Ukraine."
The EU are in no mood to sign political-association and free-trade deals while opposition leaders remain in jail. The IMF feel the same way about additional loans for the same reason.
Meanwhile, earlier this week president Yanukovych announced a $2Bn pre-election 'blow-out' to boost Party of Regions' sagging prospects in the October 28th parliamentary elections.
Something is gonna have to give...
-----------------------------
Meanwhile the macabre Tymoshenko soap opera continues..
Deutsche Welle report:
"Tymoshenko needs treatment outside of confines of prison, say German doctors.
According to German doctors, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is so seriously ill that she needs treatment [that can only be provided] outside of prison.
Representatives of the Berlin University Hospital "Charite", who examined the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko believe that because of the severity of her illness, she needs urgent treatment, "if at all possible, outside prison". To conduct the necessary therapy according to international standards inside prison is impossible "because of its complexity"...
Ukrainian and German doctors "came to a consensus" on the diagnosis of the former prime minister. Tymoshenko feels very ill and needs immediate treatment.."
The former PM has complained of health problems for many months. All of this begs the question: "Why has she not received the best treatment possible for all of this time?
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Five EU Foreign Ministers blast Ukrainian authorities
Carl Bildt, William Hague, Karel Schwarzenberg, Radoslaw Sikorski and Guido Westerwelle - the foreign ministers of Sweden, Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany - have today written a letter to the 'New York Times'.
"We cannot, however, conceal our growing concerns regarding the state of democracy in Ukraine. Independent media and civil society organizations report pressure from the authorities.
In late 2010, criminal proceedings were started against a number of leading opposition politicians. And a year later, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for allegedly abusing her office, following a trial that has been widely criticized both in Ukraine and abroad as not meeting international standards.
Moreover, more than a dozen other opposition politicians are facing similar charges. On Feb. 27, the former minister of the interior, Yuri Lutsenko, was sentenced to four years in prison after another disappointing trial.
These trials bear the marks of politically motivated and selective justice. According to independent experts, they have been conducted in a manner that has failed to respect the principles of the rule of law and the human rights of the defendants.
These developments are incompatible with Ukraine’s own European choice. Democracy, human rights and the rule of law are the values underpinning the association agreement and Ukraine has already committed itself to them in the framework of the O.S.C.E., the Council of Europe, and also vis-à-vis the E.U. Thus, it is fair to say that the association agreement has been imprisoned, and the Ukrainian leadership is holding the key. "
Yanukovych has made his decision. He is prepared to pay the price of isolation rather than release his most feared political opponents from prison.
"We cannot, however, conceal our growing concerns regarding the state of democracy in Ukraine. Independent media and civil society organizations report pressure from the authorities.
In late 2010, criminal proceedings were started against a number of leading opposition politicians. And a year later, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for allegedly abusing her office, following a trial that has been widely criticized both in Ukraine and abroad as not meeting international standards.
Moreover, more than a dozen other opposition politicians are facing similar charges. On Feb. 27, the former minister of the interior, Yuri Lutsenko, was sentenced to four years in prison after another disappointing trial.
These trials bear the marks of politically motivated and selective justice. According to independent experts, they have been conducted in a manner that has failed to respect the principles of the rule of law and the human rights of the defendants.
These developments are incompatible with Ukraine’s own European choice. Democracy, human rights and the rule of law are the values underpinning the association agreement and Ukraine has already committed itself to them in the framework of the O.S.C.E., the Council of Europe, and also vis-à-vis the E.U. Thus, it is fair to say that the association agreement has been imprisoned, and the Ukrainian leadership is holding the key. "
Yanukovych has made his decision. He is prepared to pay the price of isolation rather than release his most feared political opponents from prison.
Saturday, March 03, 2012
Mafia state, or what?
Just over a year ago I mentioned how Viktor Yanukovych was "Building himself a private Kingdom of Monaco - in Crimea", complete with a 900 metre length of private beach along one of the most beautiful and desirable parts of the Black Sea coastline.
This beachside mini-kingdom is based around a former recreational holiday centre called 'Mis Aiya' which had previously been owned by Ukraine's national highways agency - 'UkrAvtoDor'. It was privatised at a knock-down price in the summer of 2007, just after major constructional improvements had taken place.
The purchasers are tightly connected to the two opaque shell companies, 'Tantalit' and 'Vidrodzhennya Ukrainy', who ostensibly own Yanukovych's infamous 'Mizhhirya' palace on the banks of the Dnipro riiver near Kyiv, and shell companies that own a large hunting hunting lodge, adjacent forests and hunting grounds, also near Kyiv. No-one can be absolutely sure who the true offshore-registered owner of all of this real estate is..but most reasonable observers consider it to be 'Yanukovych.. and family.
In 2006 Viktor Yanukovych was appointed head of the government for a second time, and a PoR parliamentary deputy, Volodymyr Demishkan, was appointed head of the highways agency 'UkrAvtoDor'. Almost immediately a decision was made to commence privatisation of this most desireable chunk of Crimea real estate.
Several months later, in 2007, Demishkan's son, Serhiy, was arrested, allegedly on a charge of premeditated murder. [Gruesome details from a previous blog of mine here. and an up to date report from 'K.P' here]. The victim, who had 'crossed' Demishkan jr in business deal, had a heating radiator tied to his back and was thrown into a canal to drown.
Demishkan Jr confessed to the offence when in custody, but once Yanukovych became president, he was released on bail.
Just a month ago he was found guilty of kidnapping and murder...and then released on the grounds he may be seriously ill with a terminal illness. As a rule, Ukrainian courts seldom take such factors into account when passing sentence.
LB.com journalist, Tetyana Chornovil, who describes the Mis Aiya affair in a series of recent articles, provides one example: Judge Rodion Kyreyev, who sentenced Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison last year, previously sent to prison a man suffering with hepatitis B and C, and who was HIV positive. The poor man was the only support for his elderly mother, invalid sister, and pregnant girlfriend. His crime? Stealing jewelry valued around $65.
Chornovil writes: "Was the compassion of the court shown to Serhiy Demishkan a coincidence? ...the court freed a killer whose father helped 'UkrAvtoDor' give up the highway agency's workers' holiday recreational centre...in the West such coincidences woud destroy the career of any highly-placed official.."
p.s. Just out: a new book entitled "The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin" by Masha Gessen
Read two reviews here and here
"Gessen speculates, the Russian prime minister suffers not so much from kleptomania as pleonexia, "the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others… He compensates for his compulsion by creating the identity of an honest and incorruptible civil servant."
Check out Putin's Black Sea palace here . Does Yanukovych suffer from the same affliction?
This beachside mini-kingdom is based around a former recreational holiday centre called 'Mis Aiya' which had previously been owned by Ukraine's national highways agency - 'UkrAvtoDor'. It was privatised at a knock-down price in the summer of 2007, just after major constructional improvements had taken place.
The purchasers are tightly connected to the two opaque shell companies, 'Tantalit' and 'Vidrodzhennya Ukrainy', who ostensibly own Yanukovych's infamous 'Mizhhirya' palace on the banks of the Dnipro riiver near Kyiv, and shell companies that own a large hunting hunting lodge, adjacent forests and hunting grounds, also near Kyiv. No-one can be absolutely sure who the true offshore-registered owner of all of this real estate is..but most reasonable observers consider it to be 'Yanukovych.. and family.
In 2006 Viktor Yanukovych was appointed head of the government for a second time, and a PoR parliamentary deputy, Volodymyr Demishkan, was appointed head of the highways agency 'UkrAvtoDor'. Almost immediately a decision was made to commence privatisation of this most desireable chunk of Crimea real estate.
Several months later, in 2007, Demishkan's son, Serhiy, was arrested, allegedly on a charge of premeditated murder. [Gruesome details from a previous blog of mine here. and an up to date report from 'K.P' here]. The victim, who had 'crossed' Demishkan jr in business deal, had a heating radiator tied to his back and was thrown into a canal to drown.
Demishkan Jr confessed to the offence when in custody, but once Yanukovych became president, he was released on bail.
Just a month ago he was found guilty of kidnapping and murder...and then released on the grounds he may be seriously ill with a terminal illness. As a rule, Ukrainian courts seldom take such factors into account when passing sentence.
LB.com journalist, Tetyana Chornovil, who describes the Mis Aiya affair in a series of recent articles, provides one example: Judge Rodion Kyreyev, who sentenced Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison last year, previously sent to prison a man suffering with hepatitis B and C, and who was HIV positive. The poor man was the only support for his elderly mother, invalid sister, and pregnant girlfriend. His crime? Stealing jewelry valued around $65.
Chornovil writes: "Was the compassion of the court shown to Serhiy Demishkan a coincidence? ...the court freed a killer whose father helped 'UkrAvtoDor' give up the highway agency's workers' holiday recreational centre...in the West such coincidences woud destroy the career of any highly-placed official.."
p.s. Just out: a new book entitled "The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin" by Masha Gessen
Read two reviews here and here
"Gessen speculates, the Russian prime minister suffers not so much from kleptomania as pleonexia, "the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others… He compensates for his compulsion by creating the identity of an honest and incorruptible civil servant."
Check out Putin's Black Sea palace here . Does Yanukovych suffer from the same affliction?
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
New man at MinFin closes Yanuk's grip on state finances
The sober-minded 'Kommersant' runs a story today entitled 'Financial assistance', about the new 38-year-old Minister of Finance, Yuriy Kolobov.
Below are some portions of the article:
A powerful ally of the National Bank has appeared in the government. Yesterday, the President appointed first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Yuriy Kolobov as Minister of Finance.
According to experts, he will be responsible for the refinancing of debt, and preventing social benefits problems springing up on the eve of parliamentary elections. Political analysts believe that his appointment now gives the President full control of the country's monetary and fiscal policy.
The post of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade is still open. The main contender, Petro Poroshenko, met the president last week and has now to submit a plan for the development for the economy.
The head of the parliamentary committee on finance, banking, tax and customs policy, Vitaliy Khomutynnyk (PoR) called financier Mr. Kolobov a professional with extensive experience in banking. "He knows the problems of the financial system from the inside. As the first deputy chairman of the National Bank, Yuriy Kolobov attended our committee meetings and we had a constructive relationship. I think, in his new position he will also be effective," said Khomutynnyk.
Mr. Kolobov has worked in the National Bank about a year before that held senior positions in Ukreximbank, BTA Bank and Oshchadbank. His career before 2008 is almost unknown.
According to economic experts, in his new position Mr. Kolobov's first task is to fulfill obligations and eventually repay debts of up to $100 billion, a portion of which have to be repayed by the summer. [BTW Much more on this here: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/staring-into-the-ukrainian-economic-and-political-abyss/ ]
His predecessor, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, last week said that Ukraine would be able to fully repay foreign debts, even without assistance from the IMF.
Director of economic programs of the Razumkov Centre, Vasyll Yurchishin doubts whether further IMF lending will take place: "The IMF does not like to give money before elections."
Kolobov has to find sources of funding to improve social welfare standards - increases of which will become an integral part of autumn's parliamentary election campaign. "If he agreed to head the Finance Ministry, it means he knows what he has to do," said one commentator.
Others add that the the new finance minister will "find common ground with the banks and "persuade" them to actively buy government bonds".
"Foreign borrowing is now closed, leaving only internal resources - and these resources are primarily the money of banks. If practices of the mid-'90's are revived when the sale of government bonds was carried out in close relationship between the Treasury and the banks, a substantial increase in the flow of money to buy hryvnia and foreign currency government bonds can be expected. At that time a system of "manual control" was utilised whereby banks were interviewed, after which they could not refuse to buy government bonds. They were given a direct recommendation to buy, so that there would be no problems" according to a 'Liga.net' source.
Political analysts also believe that the appointment of 'their own man' to this key ministry finally firmly closes the president's circle of control over public finance income and expenditure.
National Bank of Ukraine chairman Sergey Arbuzov is the son of Valentina Arbuzova, who heads the VseUkrainskiy development bank, owned by the president's son, Alexander Yanukovych.
34-year-old Arbuzov and Kolobov share spectacular common career trajectories.
Viktor Yanukovych has thus concentrated all the financial, monetary and fiscal policies in the country, according to the director of the Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev.
"The [newly] constructed financial vertikal should now bolster the power vertikal, cutting off any lobbying efforts to control the budget", he said. This is especially true on the eve of parliamentary elections.
The article includes a cartoon captioned "He knows how to find solutions to problems, and senses where the financial streams are" It shows a tiny [offshore?] island with half-buried money in the sand... suggesting Yanukovych now has all of the levers of power necessary to put the squeeze on the offshore accounts in which Ukraine's richest oligarchs/politicians stash their loot.
Will Kolobov have any success in all of this? My hunch is not much.. Most banks are in a pretty anaemic state right noww...drawing a cash transfusion from them is not a good idea.
And squeezing your sponsors..?
Below are some portions of the article:
A powerful ally of the National Bank has appeared in the government. Yesterday, the President appointed first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Yuriy Kolobov as Minister of Finance.
According to experts, he will be responsible for the refinancing of debt, and preventing social benefits problems springing up on the eve of parliamentary elections. Political analysts believe that his appointment now gives the President full control of the country's monetary and fiscal policy.
The post of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade is still open. The main contender, Petro Poroshenko, met the president last week and has now to submit a plan for the development for the economy.
The head of the parliamentary committee on finance, banking, tax and customs policy, Vitaliy Khomutynnyk (PoR) called financier Mr. Kolobov a professional with extensive experience in banking. "He knows the problems of the financial system from the inside. As the first deputy chairman of the National Bank, Yuriy Kolobov attended our committee meetings and we had a constructive relationship. I think, in his new position he will also be effective," said Khomutynnyk.
Mr. Kolobov has worked in the National Bank about a year before that held senior positions in Ukreximbank, BTA Bank and Oshchadbank. His career before 2008 is almost unknown.
According to economic experts, in his new position Mr. Kolobov's first task is to fulfill obligations and eventually repay debts of up to $100 billion, a portion of which have to be repayed by the summer. [BTW Much more on this here: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/staring-into-the-ukrainian-economic-and-political-abyss/ ]
His predecessor, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, last week said that Ukraine would be able to fully repay foreign debts, even without assistance from the IMF.
Director of economic programs of the Razumkov Centre, Vasyll Yurchishin doubts whether further IMF lending will take place: "The IMF does not like to give money before elections."
Kolobov has to find sources of funding to improve social welfare standards - increases of which will become an integral part of autumn's parliamentary election campaign. "If he agreed to head the Finance Ministry, it means he knows what he has to do," said one commentator.
Others add that the the new finance minister will "find common ground with the banks and "persuade" them to actively buy government bonds".
"Foreign borrowing is now closed, leaving only internal resources - and these resources are primarily the money of banks. If practices of the mid-'90's are revived when the sale of government bonds was carried out in close relationship between the Treasury and the banks, a substantial increase in the flow of money to buy hryvnia and foreign currency government bonds can be expected. At that time a system of "manual control" was utilised whereby banks were interviewed, after which they could not refuse to buy government bonds. They were given a direct recommendation to buy, so that there would be no problems" according to a 'Liga.net' source.
Political analysts also believe that the appointment of 'their own man' to this key ministry finally firmly closes the president's circle of control over public finance income and expenditure.
National Bank of Ukraine chairman Sergey Arbuzov is the son of Valentina Arbuzova, who heads the VseUkrainskiy development bank, owned by the president's son, Alexander Yanukovych.
34-year-old Arbuzov and Kolobov share spectacular common career trajectories.
Viktor Yanukovych has thus concentrated all the financial, monetary and fiscal policies in the country, according to the director of the Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev.
"The [newly] constructed financial vertikal should now bolster the power vertikal, cutting off any lobbying efforts to control the budget", he said. This is especially true on the eve of parliamentary elections.
The article includes a cartoon captioned "He knows how to find solutions to problems, and senses where the financial streams are" It shows a tiny [offshore?] island with half-buried money in the sand... suggesting Yanukovych now has all of the levers of power necessary to put the squeeze on the offshore accounts in which Ukraine's richest oligarchs/politicians stash their loot.
Will Kolobov have any success in all of this? My hunch is not much.. Most banks are in a pretty anaemic state right noww...drawing a cash transfusion from them is not a good idea.
And squeezing your sponsors..?
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Yanukovych unconcerned about Ukraine's isolation
The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office commented on today's 4 year sentence handed down to former Ukrainian Interior Minister, Yuriy Lutsenko thus : "The apparent political motivation behind the trial calls into question Ukraine’s commitment to a closer relationship with the European Union and runs counter to fundamental EU principles of democracy and a transparent and fair judicial process"
Similar reactions have been voice by other European capitals and multigovernmental institutions.
New Secretary of the NSDC, Andriy Kluyvev, when asked today in Brussels about Yulia Tymoshenko's imprisonment, admitted it had had a negative impact on EU-Ukraine relations, but declared unapologetically : 'criminal responsibility for crimes committed was irreversible.'
[BTW, Klyuyev's recent demotion from vice PM has caused some irritation in Party of Regions']
Clearly, Yanukovych and his pals are totally unconcerned by this negative impact - they intend to gain ever-greater control - their critics can "blow it out of their a**".
LB.com's Sonya Koshkina describes the emergence of what she calls a new 'Cold war'.
Here's a precis of some of the point she makes:
During 2010 and most of 2011 many in Europe and Washington lived under the illusion that Yanukovych dreamt of defining his place in history as a great reformer and Euro-integrator. However, as a result of the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko trials, and 'the leader's' broken promises to his European interlocutors, this illusion has been shattered. There is now serious talk about application of sanctions against some Ukrainian individuals in the Europarliament.
Relations with the USA have also become frosty - Yanukovych received a final warning from Hillary Clinton in Munich several weeks ago, but despite this, Lutsenko was today sentenced to four years inprisonment. The US ambassador had previously been denied the right to visit Tymoshenko in prison and new criminal proceedings have been opened against her too.
According to Koshkina, after Munich, the Presidential Adminstration started thinking seriously about Autumn's parliamentary elections.
In order to minimise the risk of losing, the following strategy has been devised:
Conducting a campaign of maximum pressure against the opposition to dissuade as many as possible of their candidates from standing for election.
Maximising economic pressure, e.g. by the tax authorities, on major businessmen who would be prepared to fund an opposition election campaign [this process is already well under way].
To manipulate the election laws and 'deprive the opposition of oxygen'.
If these measures do not ensure a favourable result, the elections could be postponed indefinitely.
It has been made clear to Yanukovych that if Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are not allowed to participate in the Autumn elections, they will not be considered valid in the West, so why bother holding them at all?
In order to compensate for the huge deficits which would have been filled by no-longer available overseas borrowings, those at the top of Ukraine's 'Forbe's list' are to be squeezed. Quite what the reaction of these guys will be, Koshkina does not say...
China could also be a source of funds, if Ukraine's farmlands were provided as collateral.
Similar reactions have been voice by other European capitals and multigovernmental institutions.
New Secretary of the NSDC, Andriy Kluyvev, when asked today in Brussels about Yulia Tymoshenko's imprisonment, admitted it had had a negative impact on EU-Ukraine relations, but declared unapologetically : 'criminal responsibility for crimes committed was irreversible.'
[BTW, Klyuyev's recent demotion from vice PM has caused some irritation in Party of Regions']
Clearly, Yanukovych and his pals are totally unconcerned by this negative impact - they intend to gain ever-greater control - their critics can "blow it out of their a**".
LB.com's Sonya Koshkina describes the emergence of what she calls a new 'Cold war'.
Here's a precis of some of the point she makes:
During 2010 and most of 2011 many in Europe and Washington lived under the illusion that Yanukovych dreamt of defining his place in history as a great reformer and Euro-integrator. However, as a result of the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko trials, and 'the leader's' broken promises to his European interlocutors, this illusion has been shattered. There is now serious talk about application of sanctions against some Ukrainian individuals in the Europarliament.
Relations with the USA have also become frosty - Yanukovych received a final warning from Hillary Clinton in Munich several weeks ago, but despite this, Lutsenko was today sentenced to four years inprisonment. The US ambassador had previously been denied the right to visit Tymoshenko in prison and new criminal proceedings have been opened against her too.
According to Koshkina, after Munich, the Presidential Adminstration started thinking seriously about Autumn's parliamentary elections.
In order to minimise the risk of losing, the following strategy has been devised:
Conducting a campaign of maximum pressure against the opposition to dissuade as many as possible of their candidates from standing for election.
Maximising economic pressure, e.g. by the tax authorities, on major businessmen who would be prepared to fund an opposition election campaign [this process is already well under way].
To manipulate the election laws and 'deprive the opposition of oxygen'.
If these measures do not ensure a favourable result, the elections could be postponed indefinitely.
It has been made clear to Yanukovych that if Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are not allowed to participate in the Autumn elections, they will not be considered valid in the West, so why bother holding them at all?
In order to compensate for the huge deficits which would have been filled by no-longer available overseas borrowings, those at the top of Ukraine's 'Forbe's list' are to be squeezed. Quite what the reaction of these guys will be, Koshkina does not say...
China could also be a source of funds, if Ukraine's farmlands were provided as collateral.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Reshuffles will not help Ukraine
I can recommend this OSW article on the recent reshuffles in the Ukrainian government as prelude to Autumn's parliamentary elections in the country.
However, the article claims that for Andriy Klyuvev, who was recently demoted[?] from deputy PM to Secretary to the post of the National Security and Defence Council, [See previous F.N. blog on this topic], the "main task at the NSDC will be to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this autumn, which proves that he is still trusted by Viktor Yanukovych."
In Friday night's big TV interview, Yanukovych said that Klyuyev will not be heading the Party of Regions' election headquarters even though he was one of the main architects of this political project.
The OSW article claims "A parallel goal for President Yanukovych is to contribute to the growing significance of ‘the Family’ and at the same time to preserve a certain balance of influences of individual oligarch groupings within his inner circle and to build his position as an arbiter between them. The oligarchs are too strong for the president to be able to rule without giving due respect to their interests. On the other hand, allowing one of the oligarch groups to gain a clear advantage over the other poses the risk of weakening the president’s position.." and the emergence of conflicts.."
The weakening of Klyuyev and 'confederation of Donetsk clans' in favour of 'the Family' and the RosUkrEnergo lobby could turn out to be a major miscalculation.
In another 'L.B.' article, Vitaliy Pornikov also discusses the recent reshuffle, but he concludes: "To overcome these [economic] problems, redistribution [of power] amongst the clans is not what is required. Nor is the victory of one group over another. And not even the appearance of a decorative professional [like Poroshenko] in the government. Even a supra-party government of professionals will not now save the country.
To overcome the problems, a new government is required, one that is not only merely competent, but one that has gained trust. A government that will be trusted both inside the country, in the West and in the East.
However, the article claims that for Andriy Klyuvev, who was recently demoted[?] from deputy PM to Secretary to the post of the National Security and Defence Council, [See previous F.N. blog on this topic], the "main task at the NSDC will be to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this autumn, which proves that he is still trusted by Viktor Yanukovych."
In Friday night's big TV interview, Yanukovych said that Klyuyev will not be heading the Party of Regions' election headquarters even though he was one of the main architects of this political project.
The OSW article claims "A parallel goal for President Yanukovych is to contribute to the growing significance of ‘the Family’ and at the same time to preserve a certain balance of influences of individual oligarch groupings within his inner circle and to build his position as an arbiter between them. The oligarchs are too strong for the president to be able to rule without giving due respect to their interests. On the other hand, allowing one of the oligarch groups to gain a clear advantage over the other poses the risk of weakening the president’s position.." and the emergence of conflicts.."
The weakening of Klyuyev and 'confederation of Donetsk clans' in favour of 'the Family' and the RosUkrEnergo lobby could turn out to be a major miscalculation.
In another 'L.B.' article, Vitaliy Pornikov also discusses the recent reshuffle, but he concludes: "To overcome these [economic] problems, redistribution [of power] amongst the clans is not what is required. Nor is the victory of one group over another. And not even the appearance of a decorative professional [like Poroshenko] in the government. Even a supra-party government of professionals will not now save the country.
To overcome the problems, a new government is required, one that is not only merely competent, but one that has gained trust. A government that will be trusted both inside the country, in the West and in the East.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Opinion hardening - Tymoshenko is being maltreated
After medical investigations and scans last November it was generally agreed that the imprisoned former PM Yulia Tymoshenko was suffering from a herniated disc in her spine.
Treatment for this frequently painful condition varies from 'Rest and Activity Modification', 'Ice and Heat Application', 'Therapy'...prescription of various medications...steroid injections ...through to various surgical procedures, depending on the condition of the patient and the diagnosis of physicians.
I have posted two previous blogs [here and here] about what I consider Ukrainian authorities' demonstratively brutal treatment of Tymoshenko.
Several days ago she was examined by a team of German and Canadian doctors - but as usual, the Ukrainian authorities have tried to muddy the waters.
Attempts by Ukrainian Minister of Health and PoR spokesmen to 'rubbish' the three Canadian doctors who examined her in advance of their diagnosis being made known prompted a strong reaction from the Canadian Ambassador.
Some PoR spokesmen have suggested that Tymoshenko is faking her illness, adding that maybe it would be good idea if a psychiatrist was also summoned...
Statements from Ukraine's penitentiary service usually declare that Tymoshenko's state of health is satisfactory. and that no surgical procedures are necessary.
However, they recently admittted they cannot exclude the possibility that an operation may be required to treat her condition .
The only comment thus far from the two emininent Berlin doctors has been: "The sitation with the state of her health is very serious."
Today 'Kyiv Post' reports: [Zuzana] Roithova, former healthcare minister of the Czech Republic and a member of the European People's Party which has long supported Tymoshenko, visited Kiev this week and saw part of Tymoshenko's medical records dating back to November 2011.
"(The record) clearly shows that even then the medical findings concerning the lumbar spine area required proper treatment with anaesthetics, followed by appropriate rest and a further decision on possible surgical solution following more examinations," Roithova said in a statement.
"That would have been the standard procedure. Instead, however, she was deprived of her supportive crutches, she spent endless hours interrogated and was even temporarily deprived of the painkillers."
Roithova said she would "be taking much more seriously the concerns of Tymoshenko's family, who fear that Yulia Tymoshenko could be exposed to toxic substances so she would succumb to the pressure upon her".
"Yulia Tymoshenko's health raises concerns that she has been maltreated while being in prison," she said."
Apart from sadistic pleasure and cruel demonstration to intimidate politicial enemies, I fail to see what else Yanukovych and his thugs intend to gain from this..
Treatment for this frequently painful condition varies from 'Rest and Activity Modification', 'Ice and Heat Application', 'Therapy'...prescription of various medications...steroid injections ...through to various surgical procedures, depending on the condition of the patient and the diagnosis of physicians.
I have posted two previous blogs [here and here] about what I consider Ukrainian authorities' demonstratively brutal treatment of Tymoshenko.
Several days ago she was examined by a team of German and Canadian doctors - but as usual, the Ukrainian authorities have tried to muddy the waters.
Attempts by Ukrainian Minister of Health and PoR spokesmen to 'rubbish' the three Canadian doctors who examined her in advance of their diagnosis being made known prompted a strong reaction from the Canadian Ambassador.
Some PoR spokesmen have suggested that Tymoshenko is faking her illness, adding that maybe it would be good idea if a psychiatrist was also summoned...
Statements from Ukraine's penitentiary service usually declare that Tymoshenko's state of health is satisfactory. and that no surgical procedures are necessary.
However, they recently admittted they cannot exclude the possibility that an operation may be required to treat her condition .
The only comment thus far from the two emininent Berlin doctors has been: "The sitation with the state of her health is very serious."
Today 'Kyiv Post' reports: [Zuzana] Roithova, former healthcare minister of the Czech Republic and a member of the European People's Party which has long supported Tymoshenko, visited Kiev this week and saw part of Tymoshenko's medical records dating back to November 2011.
"(The record) clearly shows that even then the medical findings concerning the lumbar spine area required proper treatment with anaesthetics, followed by appropriate rest and a further decision on possible surgical solution following more examinations," Roithova said in a statement.
"That would have been the standard procedure. Instead, however, she was deprived of her supportive crutches, she spent endless hours interrogated and was even temporarily deprived of the painkillers."
Roithova said she would "be taking much more seriously the concerns of Tymoshenko's family, who fear that Yulia Tymoshenko could be exposed to toxic substances so she would succumb to the pressure upon her".
"Yulia Tymoshenko's health raises concerns that she has been maltreated while being in prison," she said."
Apart from sadistic pleasure and cruel demonstration to intimidate politicial enemies, I fail to see what else Yanukovych and his thugs intend to gain from this..
Monday, February 20, 2012
Ossetian presidential election turmoil
There have been very few reports in the mass media about the latest turmoil in South Ossetia. Below is a small portion from an excellent report by Anna Nemtsova published in 'The Daily Beast'
"A few months ago, the republic [of South Ossetia]'s former minister of education, Alla Dzhioyeva, was joyfully celebrated as the first woman to win a presidential election in the long-suffering local conflict zones of the Caucasus.
During the election, Dzhioyeva—an independent candidate—and her team had opened up an acute discussion of the Kremlin's failed promises to reconstruct the republic, of massive bureaucratic corruption, and billions of rubles that disappeared on the way to South Ossetia.
Excited about the idea of the first free election after the August 2008 war, more people voted for Dzhioyeva than the Kremlin-backed candidate. She received a copy of the election commission report confirming that she had won by a 16 percent margin. Moscow had drastically miscalculated.
The drama that followed brought blood and violence to the enclave that Russia went to war to protect. Instead of letting the ruined republic enjoy their independent candidate, a local court annulled Dzhioyeva's victory.
[Note: Some reports say their Supreme court annulled the election result because of 'irregularites'... Dzhioyeva was then drawn into negotiations with acting president, the Russian Vadim Brovtsev - who was nominated by the Kremlin despite having no previous connection to South Ossetia. But Brovtsev failed to keep his side of their agreement...LEvko]
This pushed thousands of her supporters to the streets to protest. "An active civic position and the sense that their opinion was being ignored brought people out," said Varvara Pakhomenko, an analyst with International Crisis Group. "By now South Ossetians probably feel they have become hostages of recognition."
To stop the uprising, the Moscow-backed acting president ordered Dzhioyeva arrested. In early February, dozens of men in balaclavas allegedly broke into her house and beat Dzhioyeva's closest family, supporters, whoever tried to protect her. The last that her brother Konstantin remembered of that night's horror, he says, was his sister's unconscious body being thrown into a military truck...."
More at the link above.
Journalist Vataliy Portnikov describes the situation thus:
"For Georgia, South Ossetia is occupied territory. For residents of South Ossetia it is an independent republic. But in reality it is a colony of Russia; just a colony for use as a propaganda demonstration of their own greatness.
This is why the colony is managed by an emissary from Moscow. And no matter how the Ossetians vote, the only president there will be one that is approved by Moscow. This is why all the stolen money for restoring the broken roads and emergency facilities is stolen, and why there is so much poverty and hopelessness.
People live this way in a many regions of Russia intself. But at least there no one cheats them or says that they can decide something."
P.s. Nemstova's article was elsewhere entitled: 'Did Kremlin thugs attack Alla Dzhioyeva?'
All of the above has got me thinking about Yanukovych's latest appointments... and parliamentary elections later this year in Ukraine..
"A few months ago, the republic [of South Ossetia]'s former minister of education, Alla Dzhioyeva, was joyfully celebrated as the first woman to win a presidential election in the long-suffering local conflict zones of the Caucasus.
During the election, Dzhioyeva—an independent candidate—and her team had opened up an acute discussion of the Kremlin's failed promises to reconstruct the republic, of massive bureaucratic corruption, and billions of rubles that disappeared on the way to South Ossetia.
Excited about the idea of the first free election after the August 2008 war, more people voted for Dzhioyeva than the Kremlin-backed candidate. She received a copy of the election commission report confirming that she had won by a 16 percent margin. Moscow had drastically miscalculated.
The drama that followed brought blood and violence to the enclave that Russia went to war to protect. Instead of letting the ruined republic enjoy their independent candidate, a local court annulled Dzhioyeva's victory.
[Note: Some reports say their Supreme court annulled the election result because of 'irregularites'... Dzhioyeva was then drawn into negotiations with acting president, the Russian Vadim Brovtsev - who was nominated by the Kremlin despite having no previous connection to South Ossetia. But Brovtsev failed to keep his side of their agreement...LEvko]
This pushed thousands of her supporters to the streets to protest. "An active civic position and the sense that their opinion was being ignored brought people out," said Varvara Pakhomenko, an analyst with International Crisis Group. "By now South Ossetians probably feel they have become hostages of recognition."
To stop the uprising, the Moscow-backed acting president ordered Dzhioyeva arrested. In early February, dozens of men in balaclavas allegedly broke into her house and beat Dzhioyeva's closest family, supporters, whoever tried to protect her. The last that her brother Konstantin remembered of that night's horror, he says, was his sister's unconscious body being thrown into a military truck...."
More at the link above.
Journalist Vataliy Portnikov describes the situation thus:
"For Georgia, South Ossetia is occupied territory. For residents of South Ossetia it is an independent republic. But in reality it is a colony of Russia; just a colony for use as a propaganda demonstration of their own greatness.
This is why the colony is managed by an emissary from Moscow. And no matter how the Ossetians vote, the only president there will be one that is approved by Moscow. This is why all the stolen money for restoring the broken roads and emergency facilities is stolen, and why there is so much poverty and hopelessness.
People live this way in a many regions of Russia intself. But at least there no one cheats them or says that they can decide something."
P.s. Nemstova's article was elsewhere entitled: 'Did Kremlin thugs attack Alla Dzhioyeva?'
All of the above has got me thinking about Yanukovych's latest appointments... and parliamentary elections later this year in Ukraine..
Dissapointed Klyuyev's role may be pivotal at election time
President Yanukovych's transfer of one of his closest PoR colleagues, 'partner in crime', Andriy Klyuyev, from deputy PM to Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, has caused much speculation. Yulia Mostova in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' suggests Klyuyev's first reaction would have been that of dissapointment and dismay. He was one of the favourites to step into PM Mykola Azarov' shoes when he eventually goes, and possibly may have been promised the top cabinet job by 'el presidente' himself in the past.
Mostova suggests that the president is counting on the 'demoted' Klyuyev to 'prove himself' and create an impact in the oncoming parliamentary election campaign, which in any case is predicted to be very tough and dirty. The reward would be high.
Klyuev is a very bright boy - has cordial contacts, even with leaders of the opposition. He is well thought of in Europe - he had done good work behind the scenes preparing the as-yet-uninitalled EU/Ukraine Association Agreement, so his transfer to the NSDC was a puzzlement to his EU interlocutors.
'Tyzhden' speculates in an unpublished article [see previous blog] that if the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled this Autumn are poor for the ruling authorities, leading oligarchs will propose the president stands down in the 2015 presidential elections, and under a guarantee of immunity, nominates another candidate. [Andriy Klyuyev and his brother also regularly figure in lists of wealthiest Ukrainians.]
Yanukovych may well feel the only sure guarantee of avoiding any trouble would be to remain in power - hence his determined efforts to ensure the Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. police], Ministry of Defence, and Security Service of Ukraine are headed by firm loyalists. Klyuyev and the NSDC will be pivotal if the president postpones the elections and declares some kind of martial law situation, .
Mostova suggests that the president is counting on the 'demoted' Klyuyev to 'prove himself' and create an impact in the oncoming parliamentary election campaign, which in any case is predicted to be very tough and dirty. The reward would be high.
Klyuev is a very bright boy - has cordial contacts, even with leaders of the opposition. He is well thought of in Europe - he had done good work behind the scenes preparing the as-yet-uninitalled EU/Ukraine Association Agreement, so his transfer to the NSDC was a puzzlement to his EU interlocutors.
'Tyzhden' speculates in an unpublished article [see previous blog] that if the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled this Autumn are poor for the ruling authorities, leading oligarchs will propose the president stands down in the 2015 presidential elections, and under a guarantee of immunity, nominates another candidate. [Andriy Klyuyev and his brother also regularly figure in lists of wealthiest Ukrainians.]
Yanukovych may well feel the only sure guarantee of avoiding any trouble would be to remain in power - hence his determined efforts to ensure the Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. police], Ministry of Defence, and Security Service of Ukraine are headed by firm loyalists. Klyuyev and the NSDC will be pivotal if the president postpones the elections and declares some kind of martial law situation, .
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Yanukovych preparing several scenarios in lead-up to Autumn VR elections?
During last Friday's 'ShusterLive' show, the transfer of former deputy PM Andriy Klyuyev to the chair of the National Security and Defence Council head by presidential decree was discussed. For over 10 years now Klyuyev has probably been Party of Regions' smartest political manager and organiser.
Chief-editor of the LB.ua site, Sonya Koshkina expressed the view that in his new position Klyuyev will have greater opportunity to successfully manage Party of Regions' campaign for the parliamentary election scheduled to take place next Autumn, and would also be ideally placed to manage the country's security forces in order to produce the 'required election result'. [PoR's ratings are currently in the low to mid teens... and falling.]
But, in her opinion, there is a possibility parliamentary elections could be cancelled or be postponed indefinitely. The NSDC, in close collaboration with the President, could even declare a state of emergency in the country.
Koshkina pointed out that in Europe opinion is hardening that if Yulia Tymoshenko is not free to take part in the elections then they will not be considered valid in any case...so why bother?
[Note: Messing about with election dates is not new:
On February 16, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada cancelled all Ukrainian local election dates original set for May 30, 2010. A new date was not set but Members of Parliament expected new local elections in the spring of 2011. On April 2, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada set early local elections in a number of cities, towns and villages for June 20, 2010. According to opposition lawmaker Mykola Katerynchuk (Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc faction) the voting results proved that the Party of Regions intends to extend its influence over local government bodies, as the faction did not support elections in any of those regions where they already had a majority.
Late April 2010 President Viktor Yanukovych expected local elections in Ukraine to take place in 2011. Late May 2010 Yanukovych stated that local elections should be held next autumn. Yanukovych also called for these elections to be based on the majority representation system and stressed the need to adopt the relevant laws.
On July 1, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada scheduled the election for Sunday, October 31, 2010. On July 11 lawmakers approved the bill on the procedure for holding the elections. Source
In April 2007, in an attempt to resolve a political crisis in Ukraine, President Yushchenko issued a constitutionally highly dubious decree, and dissolved Ukraine's parliament. Fresh elections took place at the end of September that year. Source]
The latest edition of 'Tyzhden' weekly runs an article entitled: 'Cadres decide everything?' "The new appointments heading the Security Service of Ukraine [SBU] and Ministry of Defence are evidence the president does not trust the 'endless cadre of reserves' that Party of Regions traditionally boast of." The article predicts other figures, distant from PoR but 'recommended by authoritative members close to president', may soon be appointed to other strategically important positions. In other words, 'Lidder' as he is called in PoR correspondence, is distancing himself from his own party and building his own power 'vertikal'..there as rumblings of internal discontent already amongst senior party paymasters.
'Tyzhden'also runs another article entitled 'They are preparing to give [their opponents] one in the face' which describes how the authorities intend to use 'adminresurs' manipulations and falsifications in the run-up to the 2012 parliamentary elections. Their intention to do this was clearly signalled by Roman Zabzaliuk's bribery recordings [ see previous F.N. blog]
Unfortunately these two articles can only be read on the net at the links above. 'Tyzhden' has been withdrawn from sale for reasons, as yet, not explained...
p.s. The prosecutor-general says his office is not compentent to investigate alleged bribery of deputies in the V.R. In other words, carry on as normal...
Chief-editor of the LB.ua site, Sonya Koshkina expressed the view that in his new position Klyuyev will have greater opportunity to successfully manage Party of Regions' campaign for the parliamentary election scheduled to take place next Autumn, and would also be ideally placed to manage the country's security forces in order to produce the 'required election result'. [PoR's ratings are currently in the low to mid teens... and falling.]
But, in her opinion, there is a possibility parliamentary elections could be cancelled or be postponed indefinitely. The NSDC, in close collaboration with the President, could even declare a state of emergency in the country.
Koshkina pointed out that in Europe opinion is hardening that if Yulia Tymoshenko is not free to take part in the elections then they will not be considered valid in any case...so why bother?
[Note: Messing about with election dates is not new:
On February 16, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada cancelled all Ukrainian local election dates original set for May 30, 2010. A new date was not set but Members of Parliament expected new local elections in the spring of 2011. On April 2, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada set early local elections in a number of cities, towns and villages for June 20, 2010. According to opposition lawmaker Mykola Katerynchuk (Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc faction) the voting results proved that the Party of Regions intends to extend its influence over local government bodies, as the faction did not support elections in any of those regions where they already had a majority.
Late April 2010 President Viktor Yanukovych expected local elections in Ukraine to take place in 2011. Late May 2010 Yanukovych stated that local elections should be held next autumn. Yanukovych also called for these elections to be based on the majority representation system and stressed the need to adopt the relevant laws.
On July 1, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada scheduled the election for Sunday, October 31, 2010. On July 11 lawmakers approved the bill on the procedure for holding the elections. Source
In April 2007, in an attempt to resolve a political crisis in Ukraine, President Yushchenko issued a constitutionally highly dubious decree, and dissolved Ukraine's parliament. Fresh elections took place at the end of September that year. Source]
The latest edition of 'Tyzhden' weekly runs an article entitled: 'Cadres decide everything?' "The new appointments heading the Security Service of Ukraine [SBU] and Ministry of Defence are evidence the president does not trust the 'endless cadre of reserves' that Party of Regions traditionally boast of." The article predicts other figures, distant from PoR but 'recommended by authoritative members close to president', may soon be appointed to other strategically important positions. In other words, 'Lidder' as he is called in PoR correspondence, is distancing himself from his own party and building his own power 'vertikal'..there as rumblings of internal discontent already amongst senior party paymasters.
'Tyzhden'also runs another article entitled 'They are preparing to give [their opponents] one in the face' which describes how the authorities intend to use 'adminresurs' manipulations and falsifications in the run-up to the 2012 parliamentary elections. Their intention to do this was clearly signalled by Roman Zabzaliuk's bribery recordings [ see previous F.N. blog]
Unfortunately these two articles can only be read on the net at the links above. 'Tyzhden' has been withdrawn from sale for reasons, as yet, not explained...
p.s. The prosecutor-general says his office is not compentent to investigate alleged bribery of deputies in the V.R. In other words, carry on as normal...
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Yanuk snubbed by Afghan vets
"Ukrainian veterans of the 10-year Soviet Afghan war, angry about proposed cuts to payouts, snubbed President Viktor Yanukovych on Wednesday, turning their backs on him at a ceremony to mark the 23rd anniversary of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan."
These veterans were also most aware that Yanukovych did not serve any duty in what was then a conscript Soviet army.
The reason?
He was serving time elsewhere - in a penal colony for crimes of violence....
These veterans were also most aware that Yanukovych did not serve any duty in what was then a conscript Soviet army.
The reason?
He was serving time elsewhere - in a penal colony for crimes of violence....
Monday, February 13, 2012
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer
The sober-minded 'Kommersant' newspaper reports:
"IMF warns of a hidden threat - Reduction of budget deficit recommended for Ukraine
Regeneration of the Ukrainian economy is in danger, warns the International Monetary Fund.
This can be avoided only by tightening fiscal policy - in particular, higher taxes and gas prices, as well as a transition to a floating exchange rate.
The recommendations of the IMF have become much tougher, since a deterioration in the payments balance in Ukraine has become apparent, experts admit."
Cf. Yanukovych's super-luxury A-319 Airbus with marble and gold bathroom fittings etc. etc...[photos here ] - cost $90m...Not that he will be using it much..now he is being shunned by western leaders..
Oh, and no more IMF credits without improvements in democratic standards...
"IMF warns of a hidden threat - Reduction of budget deficit recommended for Ukraine
Regeneration of the Ukrainian economy is in danger, warns the International Monetary Fund.
This can be avoided only by tightening fiscal policy - in particular, higher taxes and gas prices, as well as a transition to a floating exchange rate.
The recommendations of the IMF have become much tougher, since a deterioration in the payments balance in Ukraine has become apparent, experts admit."
Cf. Yanukovych's super-luxury A-319 Airbus with marble and gold bathroom fittings etc. etc...[photos here ] - cost $90m...Not that he will be using it much..now he is being shunned by western leaders..
Oh, and no more IMF credits without improvements in democratic standards...
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Bribes transcript: "We are working for the president. I don't care about anything else.."
On one of the last days of 2011, 'Den' reported: "... Roman Zabzaliuk quit the [BYuT] fraction. ...This news was a shock both for his colleagues in the party and many journalists. Unlike a lot of his colleagues, Zabzaliuk honestly spent the whole summer near the Pechersk Court [where Yulia Tymoshenko was being tried]. In the parliament he was thought to be close to Turchynov and Kozhemiakin. In the political environment they thought that if his friend headed the fraction, Zabzaliuk would quickly come out on top. Some even predicted that he could become the deputy head of the fraction.
“Roman Zabzaliuk has been on the sick leave for two weeks. When he recovers he will give commentaries. He personally asked me about it,” leader of the [BYuT] fraction Andrii Kozhemiakin said. Zabzaliuk did not pick up the phone those days. When this article was edited the motifs [sic] of his leave were still unclear."
Last Wednesday Zabzaliuk's motives did become clear when, at a press conference, he revealed his 'defection' was in fact part of 'sting' operation. He produced recordings of conversations between himself and Ihor Rybakov, head of ‘Reforms for the Future’ parliamentary group, and alleged Rybakov bribed him to work 'for the other side'. The cynicism of Rybakov is astounding even though rumours of systematic bribing of of opposition deputies had been widespread.
'KyivPost' has posted several articles on this scandal.
Most Ukrainian TV channels and newspapers have downplayed the story, and the ruling authorities' line seems to be: 'both parties are discrediting parliament - Zabzaliuk may be guilty of soliciting a bribe or entrapment. PoR spokesmen say Zabzaliuk should give the money back..thus confirming money had changed hands, and even hinted that he may be charged for taking a bribe..
The two biggest political discussion shows last Friday ignored the topic - almost certainly as a result of pressure from 'vlasti' - a clear example of censorship of what should be the biggest story of the year so far.
Nevertheless transcripts and the audiofiles are readily available. Zabzaliuk has been interviewed on RadioSvoboda, on the minor independent TVi channel, and elsewhere. The recordings are clear, and excerpts can be widely heard on 'the net.'
Rybakov has not claimed the recordings to be faked; rather oddly, he claims he was merely helping a friend who needed the money for a medical operation..
But the most damning conclusion that can be drawn from these excerpts is that it appears the president himself and as well as his administration approved the bribing of opposition politicians and the organisation of opposition 'sleepers', in preparation for massive election fraud during Autumn's parliamentary elections.
LEvko suggests although some/all? of the recordings have been handed over to law enforcement agencies for further investigation, no charges will be brought because the president is so badly implicated.
Even though there may be more recordings that will be 'drip-fed' out in weeks to come, a story that in any 'normal' country would shake the government and administration to its roots will peter out. Sadly, the jaundiced electorate have long ago made up their minds about how diabolically corrupt their elected leaders are..
p.s. TVi report, with interviews in Ukrainian here
“Roman Zabzaliuk has been on the sick leave for two weeks. When he recovers he will give commentaries. He personally asked me about it,” leader of the [BYuT] fraction Andrii Kozhemiakin said. Zabzaliuk did not pick up the phone those days. When this article was edited the motifs [sic] of his leave were still unclear."
Last Wednesday Zabzaliuk's motives did become clear when, at a press conference, he revealed his 'defection' was in fact part of 'sting' operation. He produced recordings of conversations between himself and Ihor Rybakov, head of ‘Reforms for the Future’ parliamentary group, and alleged Rybakov bribed him to work 'for the other side'. The cynicism of Rybakov is astounding even though rumours of systematic bribing of of opposition deputies had been widespread.
'KyivPost' has posted several articles on this scandal.
Most Ukrainian TV channels and newspapers have downplayed the story, and the ruling authorities' line seems to be: 'both parties are discrediting parliament - Zabzaliuk may be guilty of soliciting a bribe or entrapment. PoR spokesmen say Zabzaliuk should give the money back..thus confirming money had changed hands, and even hinted that he may be charged for taking a bribe..
The two biggest political discussion shows last Friday ignored the topic - almost certainly as a result of pressure from 'vlasti' - a clear example of censorship of what should be the biggest story of the year so far.
Nevertheless transcripts and the audiofiles are readily available. Zabzaliuk has been interviewed on RadioSvoboda, on the minor independent TVi channel, and elsewhere. The recordings are clear, and excerpts can be widely heard on 'the net.'
Rybakov has not claimed the recordings to be faked; rather oddly, he claims he was merely helping a friend who needed the money for a medical operation..
But the most damning conclusion that can be drawn from these excerpts is that it appears the president himself and as well as his administration approved the bribing of opposition politicians and the organisation of opposition 'sleepers', in preparation for massive election fraud during Autumn's parliamentary elections.
LEvko suggests although some/all? of the recordings have been handed over to law enforcement agencies for further investigation, no charges will be brought because the president is so badly implicated.
Even though there may be more recordings that will be 'drip-fed' out in weeks to come, a story that in any 'normal' country would shake the government and administration to its roots will peter out. Sadly, the jaundiced electorate have long ago made up their minds about how diabolically corrupt their elected leaders are..
p.s. TVi report, with interviews in Ukrainian here
Khodorkovsky and Tymoshenko
I a few weeks time the movie: "Khodorkovsky" will be released. [Brief trailer video and details here ]
The film hints that Khodorkovsky may have 'actually gone to jail on purpose' i.e. instead of fleeing, he wanted to become a martyr and, eventually become president. As one of his Yukos colleagues said, right now: 'He has become Putin's personal hostage'.
Former PM Yulia Tymoshenko is increasingly being referred to as 'Ukraine's Khodorkovsky'.
She, and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, whose trial is drawing to an end, both knew what awaited them.
In a recent interview, BYuT deputy Roman Zabzaliuk, who in a sting operation induced turncoat deputy Ihor Rybakov to give him bribe of nearly half a million dollars, says Rybakov, when asked about Tymoshenko, curtly told him: "She got what she wanted". This is not the first time such thoughts have been expressed by members of the ruling party. The opportunity for flight was available.
Wily parliamentary speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn, said, when asked about Tymoshenko last Friday on 'Shuster Live: "We are at a dead end. Ukraine has become a hostage of the problem of Yulia Tymoshenko....there will be no ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU until this problem is solved...Ukraine, its people, have become hostages of this situation". Lytvyn alleged that the opposition were somehow hindering the setting up of legal mechanisms or manipulations to free her.
I would suggest it was not 'Ukraine' or its people that sent her to prison. Only one man bears responsibility - the president. She has become Yanukovych's personal hostage - the analogy with Kodorkovsky is fair.
Few predict Putin will remain president for another 12 years when he wins the next elections. Few can predict Tymoshenko will remain imprisoned for 7 years; but how things work out for these two is unpredictable..nevertheless they will both remain at the heart of politics in their respective countries.
Maybe we will be watching a movie about Tymoshenko soon?
The film hints that Khodorkovsky may have 'actually gone to jail on purpose' i.e. instead of fleeing, he wanted to become a martyr and, eventually become president. As one of his Yukos colleagues said, right now: 'He has become Putin's personal hostage'.
Former PM Yulia Tymoshenko is increasingly being referred to as 'Ukraine's Khodorkovsky'.
She, and former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, whose trial is drawing to an end, both knew what awaited them.
In a recent interview, BYuT deputy Roman Zabzaliuk, who in a sting operation induced turncoat deputy Ihor Rybakov to give him bribe of nearly half a million dollars, says Rybakov, when asked about Tymoshenko, curtly told him: "She got what she wanted". This is not the first time such thoughts have been expressed by members of the ruling party. The opportunity for flight was available.
Wily parliamentary speaker, Volodymyr Lytvyn, said, when asked about Tymoshenko last Friday on 'Shuster Live: "We are at a dead end. Ukraine has become a hostage of the problem of Yulia Tymoshenko....there will be no ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU until this problem is solved...Ukraine, its people, have become hostages of this situation". Lytvyn alleged that the opposition were somehow hindering the setting up of legal mechanisms or manipulations to free her.
I would suggest it was not 'Ukraine' or its people that sent her to prison. Only one man bears responsibility - the president. She has become Yanukovych's personal hostage - the analogy with Kodorkovsky is fair.
Few predict Putin will remain president for another 12 years when he wins the next elections. Few can predict Tymoshenko will remain imprisoned for 7 years; but how things work out for these two is unpredictable..nevertheless they will both remain at the heart of politics in their respective countries.
Maybe we will be watching a movie about Tymoshenko soon?
Saturday, February 11, 2012
No shopping in London for Kharkiv mayor
On Friday a story appeared that the mayor of one of Ukraine's biggest cities, Kharkiv, was refused a visa to travel to Great Britain several days previously, allegedly, 'because of his criminal past'.
Hennadiy Kernes was due to travel to London with a delegation led by deputy PM, Borys Kolesnikov on Tuesday in connection with preparations for the Euro 2012 Soccer tournament.
Later on Friday, a spokesman for the Kharkiv city council claimed Kernes does have a two-year British visa in his passport, but he could not fly to London 'because of his large workload'.
Smells rather fishy. I do not believe Kernes would turn down the opportunity to travel to 'Londongrad' in such a high-power delegation...best hotels..VIP treatment etc.. World and European Football Associations are very, very wealthy bodies...and hardly squeaky-clean..]
[Over the years I've heard many times and seen situations where dozens of people wait, sweating for hours outside a high-ranking 'chinovnik's' office for an appointment....meanwhile the 'chinovnik' has gone home early because it's a sunny afternoon..Work ethic is not the first thing that springs to mind when characterising highly placed Ukrainian officials.]
Or a visa may have been granted to Kernes...and then 'pulled' at the last minute... A visa does not guarantee entry...immigration officials can detain anyone they like at the border...
And this may be warning shot across the bows of Borys Kolesnikov. Many consider him the most ruthless 'businessmen' to have emerged during the 'wild-east' '90's days in Donbas region when the Yanukovych-Akhmetov-Kolesnikov triumvirate came to dominate there.
The black list I mentioned in my previous blog may be taking shape...
And no January sales shopping for Genyk..
"There’s a man goin’ ’round takin’ names.
An’ he decides who to free and who to blame.
Everybody won’t be treated all the same.
There’ll be a golden ladder reaching down.
When the man comes around."
"When the man comes around"...Johnny Cash.
Hennadiy Kernes was due to travel to London with a delegation led by deputy PM, Borys Kolesnikov on Tuesday in connection with preparations for the Euro 2012 Soccer tournament.
Later on Friday, a spokesman for the Kharkiv city council claimed Kernes does have a two-year British visa in his passport, but he could not fly to London 'because of his large workload'.
Smells rather fishy. I do not believe Kernes would turn down the opportunity to travel to 'Londongrad' in such a high-power delegation...best hotels..VIP treatment etc.. World and European Football Associations are very, very wealthy bodies...and hardly squeaky-clean..]
[Over the years I've heard many times and seen situations where dozens of people wait, sweating for hours outside a high-ranking 'chinovnik's' office for an appointment....meanwhile the 'chinovnik' has gone home early because it's a sunny afternoon..Work ethic is not the first thing that springs to mind when characterising highly placed Ukrainian officials.]
Or a visa may have been granted to Kernes...and then 'pulled' at the last minute... A visa does not guarantee entry...immigration officials can detain anyone they like at the border...
And this may be warning shot across the bows of Borys Kolesnikov. Many consider him the most ruthless 'businessmen' to have emerged during the 'wild-east' '90's days in Donbas region when the Yanukovych-Akhmetov-Kolesnikov triumvirate came to dominate there.
The black list I mentioned in my previous blog may be taking shape...
And no January sales shopping for Genyk..
"There’s a man goin’ ’round takin’ names.
An’ he decides who to free and who to blame.
Everybody won’t be treated all the same.
There’ll be a golden ladder reaching down.
When the man comes around."
"When the man comes around"...Johnny Cash.
Wednesday, February 08, 2012
Only matter of time before black list' is posted..
'Segodnya' ran the following story today:
"Europe and the United States have received "black list" of Ukrainian officials
The list includes Yanukovych, Azarov, Firtash, Boyko and Khoroshkovsky
Long before the adoption of the PACE resolution on the functioning of democratic institutions in Ukraine, the opposition gave the leadership of the United States and European Union a list of Ukrainian officials, to whom they should apply sanctions and deny entry into these countries.
According to sources, more than serious attention, both in the EU and over the ocean in the U.S., has been given to the resulting list. According to available information. the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton mentioned the possible legalization of such a list during her recent meeting with Viktor Yanukovych [in Davos].
This list of 'grounded' Ukrainian officials, which very soon will be the subject of discussion in the highest offices of the EU and the U.S., will be headed by President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, who the opposition accuses of being "the mastermind of political repressions in Ukraine", and his oldest son, Oleksander Yanukovych.
The 'top ten' includes the founder of "RosUkrEnergo" Dmitro Firtash, the Minister of Energy and Mining, Yuriy Boyko, head of the Presidential Administration Serhiy Lyovochkin, head of the SBU Khoroshkovsky, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Foreign Minister Konstantin Hryshenko.
Also on the list are members of the General Prosecutor's Office and chief serious crime investigator Oleksander Nechvohlod."
LEvko says 'Segondya' is a big-selling daily owned by Rinat Akhmetov - normally quite reliable - no obvious reason they should mislead. It is anyone's guess when the application of such sanctions could occur. But they will be put into place unless Yanukovych changes his attitude to political opponents - and at the moment there is little sign of this happening.
--------------------------------------------------
Dmytro Salamatin has been appointed Minister of Defence. I blogged about this thug last year. Yanukovych had previously appointed him general director of the State arms company "UkrBoronProm". His experience of the military is limited...but he will be totally loyal to the pres.
By the beginning of this year, as head of 'UkrBoronProm' Salamatin ensured all Ukrainian arms exports were monopolised and under his personal control. All income was paid to a Belize offshore company via Cyprus-based bank accounts. Ukrainian arms trade cash flows are now completely centralised, and any foreign intermediaries have most probably been excluded. Previously a separate offshore structure was set up for every major arms export contract. This allowed several insider 'clans' to flourish, and was useful when supplying arms to both sides of one conflict... [Source]
He may become even more useful if/when anti-gov. demonstrations need to be broken up and scattered, and heads cracked..
Hint to EU and Dept. of State: Maybe there is room on 'the list' for Salamatin too...
"Europe and the United States have received "black list" of Ukrainian officials
The list includes Yanukovych, Azarov, Firtash, Boyko and Khoroshkovsky
Long before the adoption of the PACE resolution on the functioning of democratic institutions in Ukraine, the opposition gave the leadership of the United States and European Union a list of Ukrainian officials, to whom they should apply sanctions and deny entry into these countries.
According to sources, more than serious attention, both in the EU and over the ocean in the U.S., has been given to the resulting list. According to available information. the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton mentioned the possible legalization of such a list during her recent meeting with Viktor Yanukovych [in Davos].
This list of 'grounded' Ukrainian officials, which very soon will be the subject of discussion in the highest offices of the EU and the U.S., will be headed by President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, who the opposition accuses of being "the mastermind of political repressions in Ukraine", and his oldest son, Oleksander Yanukovych.
The 'top ten' includes the founder of "RosUkrEnergo" Dmitro Firtash, the Minister of Energy and Mining, Yuriy Boyko, head of the Presidential Administration Serhiy Lyovochkin, head of the SBU Khoroshkovsky, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and Foreign Minister Konstantin Hryshenko.
Also on the list are members of the General Prosecutor's Office and chief serious crime investigator Oleksander Nechvohlod."
LEvko says 'Segondya' is a big-selling daily owned by Rinat Akhmetov - normally quite reliable - no obvious reason they should mislead. It is anyone's guess when the application of such sanctions could occur. But they will be put into place unless Yanukovych changes his attitude to political opponents - and at the moment there is little sign of this happening.
--------------------------------------------------
Dmytro Salamatin has been appointed Minister of Defence. I blogged about this thug last year. Yanukovych had previously appointed him general director of the State arms company "UkrBoronProm". His experience of the military is limited...but he will be totally loyal to the pres.
By the beginning of this year, as head of 'UkrBoronProm' Salamatin ensured all Ukrainian arms exports were monopolised and under his personal control. All income was paid to a Belize offshore company via Cyprus-based bank accounts. Ukrainian arms trade cash flows are now completely centralised, and any foreign intermediaries have most probably been excluded. Previously a separate offshore structure was set up for every major arms export contract. This allowed several insider 'clans' to flourish, and was useful when supplying arms to both sides of one conflict... [Source]
He may become even more useful if/when anti-gov. demonstrations need to be broken up and scattered, and heads cracked..
Hint to EU and Dept. of State: Maybe there is room on 'the list' for Salamatin too...
Tuesday, February 07, 2012
Lutsenko accuses Yanukovych of blocking prosecution of major crime bosses
The farcical trial of former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is drawing to its end.
On Monday the accused was given the opportunity to address the court. In his statement he made several sensational accusations against the president and members of PoR.
He claims he was systematically threatened when he was in the minister's chair and recounted one case where Yanukovych's spokesperson Hannah Herman warned him in parliament: "You will be imprisoned and will get to know what prison is [like]."
He claimed than in four years as Interior Minister he did not even benefit from the use of an apartment provided by the state; and unlike nearly all of his top banana predecessors, prosecutors etc., he did not "privatise" a state dacha in swanky suburbs for himself. One of the cases against Lutsenko alleges he illicitly provided an apartment for his driver.
But the most sensation accusation he directed at president Yanukovych, who after his appointment as PM under president Yushchenko, requested Lutsenko 'back-off' from the pursuit of major crime bosses.
The following from 'Kommersant'
"Yanukovych gave me some flowers and said:" We need to talk together. In the evening the three of us - me, Yanukovych and a driver drive to Mezhyhirya, which had not then been 'privatized'. With music playing, the PM says to me: "Just don't go after Sasha." I ask him, "Which Sasha?". And he says, "Don't pretend [you don't know]... Sasha Melnyk". This guy, Melnyk a.ka. Melya is no.21 on the "For Yanukovych " bloc list in the Crimean parliament. He's the leader of the [300-member (F.N.)] organized criminal gang [Seilem], responsible for about 45 murders. I replied to the PM, "Viktor Fedorovych, there's a game - cops and robbers. Well I'm the cop". He thought I was kidding."
Alexander Melnyk was arrested on September 29, 2006, but was released on October 2 and soon left Ukraine. He returned to the country on December 13, 2006, just a few days after Lutsenko was sacked by a parliamentary motion initiated by the Party of Regions.
Lutsenko claimed the current deputy prosecutor general Renat Kuzmin was wholly responsible for Alexander Melnyk's evasion of justice. "Kuzmin signed arrest warrants for two gang members, but not for the boss. After his 72 hours of detention has expired, he was released, and [he headed] straight to Boryspil [airport]".
"Having all the evidence connecting the gang to murders, including that of a policeman, deputy presecutor general Renat Kuzmin...releases the man who Yanukovych shelters - the head of the organised crime gang."
Lutsenko also accused Kuzmin of 'rehabilitating' another of Ukraine's most notorious crime bosses, Givi Nemsadze, whose gang of 50 or more gangsters allegedly committed over 100 killings. [Nemsadze says: "It was my brother what did all them murders...nothing to do with me..."]
Incidentally, much of this is not new. An excerpt from Wikileaks:
"Lutsenko told Ambassador November 17 [2006] that he had been shocked that the General Prosecutor's Office (GPO) had refused to file charges against Melnyk, who in the 1990s had led the "Seilem" gang responsible for 52 contract murders, including: one journalist; two policemen; 30 businessmen; and 15 OC competitors.
Ukrainian authorities had lured Melnyk from Moscow back to Ukraine this fall after a journalist wrote an article suggesting Melnyk was afraid of Lutsenko. Melnyk was arrested upon arrival, but after GPO non-action and Melnyk's release October 3, he fled back to Moscow. Lutsenko alleged Melnyk was behind the March 1 firebomb attempt of Budzhurova's house. Melnyk's sister Svetlana Verba served as Crimea's Economics Minister, noted Prytula.
And Ihor Lukashev, who chaired the Crimean Rada budget committee, is known as the "wallet" of Melnyk's "Seilem" gang." [More on the Wikileaks link...]
p.s. Head of EC Delegation to Ukraine Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira today confirmed that EU leaders are refusing to meet with President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych - he has become an outcast. He suggested that this may continue whilst Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, and other opposition leaders remain in jail.
About time too...what normal person would want to have anything to do with such thugs..
On Monday the accused was given the opportunity to address the court. In his statement he made several sensational accusations against the president and members of PoR.
He claims he was systematically threatened when he was in the minister's chair and recounted one case where Yanukovych's spokesperson Hannah Herman warned him in parliament: "You will be imprisoned and will get to know what prison is [like]."
He claimed than in four years as Interior Minister he did not even benefit from the use of an apartment provided by the state; and unlike nearly all of his top banana predecessors, prosecutors etc., he did not "privatise" a state dacha in swanky suburbs for himself. One of the cases against Lutsenko alleges he illicitly provided an apartment for his driver.
But the most sensation accusation he directed at president Yanukovych, who after his appointment as PM under president Yushchenko, requested Lutsenko 'back-off' from the pursuit of major crime bosses.
The following from 'Kommersant'
"Yanukovych gave me some flowers and said:" We need to talk together. In the evening the three of us - me, Yanukovych and a driver drive to Mezhyhirya, which had not then been 'privatized'. With music playing, the PM says to me: "Just don't go after Sasha." I ask him, "Which Sasha?". And he says, "Don't pretend [you don't know]... Sasha Melnyk". This guy, Melnyk a.ka. Melya is no.21 on the "For Yanukovych " bloc list in the Crimean parliament. He's the leader of the [300-member (F.N.)] organized criminal gang [Seilem], responsible for about 45 murders. I replied to the PM, "Viktor Fedorovych, there's a game - cops and robbers. Well I'm the cop". He thought I was kidding."
Alexander Melnyk was arrested on September 29, 2006, but was released on October 2 and soon left Ukraine. He returned to the country on December 13, 2006, just a few days after Lutsenko was sacked by a parliamentary motion initiated by the Party of Regions.
Lutsenko claimed the current deputy prosecutor general Renat Kuzmin was wholly responsible for Alexander Melnyk's evasion of justice. "Kuzmin signed arrest warrants for two gang members, but not for the boss. After his 72 hours of detention has expired, he was released, and [he headed] straight to Boryspil [airport]".
"Having all the evidence connecting the gang to murders, including that of a policeman, deputy presecutor general Renat Kuzmin...releases the man who Yanukovych shelters - the head of the organised crime gang."
Lutsenko also accused Kuzmin of 'rehabilitating' another of Ukraine's most notorious crime bosses, Givi Nemsadze, whose gang of 50 or more gangsters allegedly committed over 100 killings. [Nemsadze says: "It was my brother what did all them murders...nothing to do with me..."]
Incidentally, much of this is not new. An excerpt from Wikileaks:
"Lutsenko told Ambassador November 17 [2006] that he had been shocked that the General Prosecutor's Office (GPO) had refused to file charges against Melnyk, who in the 1990s had led the "Seilem" gang responsible for 52 contract murders, including: one journalist; two policemen; 30 businessmen; and 15 OC competitors.
Ukrainian authorities had lured Melnyk from Moscow back to Ukraine this fall after a journalist wrote an article suggesting Melnyk was afraid of Lutsenko. Melnyk was arrested upon arrival, but after GPO non-action and Melnyk's release October 3, he fled back to Moscow. Lutsenko alleged Melnyk was behind the March 1 firebomb attempt of Budzhurova's house. Melnyk's sister Svetlana Verba served as Crimea's Economics Minister, noted Prytula.
And Ihor Lukashev, who chaired the Crimean Rada budget committee, is known as the "wallet" of Melnyk's "Seilem" gang." [More on the Wikileaks link...]
p.s. Head of EC Delegation to Ukraine Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira today confirmed that EU leaders are refusing to meet with President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych - he has become an outcast. He suggested that this may continue whilst Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, and other opposition leaders remain in jail.
About time too...what normal person would want to have anything to do with such thugs..
Monday, February 06, 2012
Yanyk plugs his own corrupt company..
Video of Yanukovych's 12 minutes of "eyewash" - part of the "Energy, Resources, Environment" panel during last week's 48th Munich Security Conference here
Also on the stage were the Presidentof Azerbaijan, Commissioner for Energy, European Union, Günther H. Oettinger, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt, and others.
Hillary Clinton gave him a telling off, accorting to this diplo-speak Department of State briefing
Arseniy Yatesenyuk asked Yanukovych a pertinent question from the floor: " You did a lot to be somehow benign to our Russian partners. You eliminated [our] NATO membership perspective, you extended the mandate to the Russian Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory. Despite this Russian is not really so co-operative, we still pay the highest price in Europe for gas, Mr president, what should you do with our Russian partners?"
[Video of Yatsenyuk's full question here - His mention of Tymoshenko gained some applause]
Instead of replying directly Yanukovych mentioned that Ukraine is successfully diversifying its energy security, and in particular described the construction of major solar power stations in the country.
Read Serhyi Leshchenko's award-winning exposure of the Ukrainian head of state's corrupt links with Austrian 'Activ Solar' who are tightly linked with these projects, [in English], here
And also from 'F.N.' here
Yanukovych was shamelessly putting in a 'plug' for his own corrupt company....No wonder he got the cold shoulder from Oettinger.
More on this story from 'ZIK' here
p.s. Ex-ua - another black mark on the current administration?
Also on the stage were the Presidentof Azerbaijan, Commissioner for Energy, European Union, Günther H. Oettinger, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Carl Bildt, and others.
Hillary Clinton gave him a telling off, accorting to this diplo-speak Department of State briefing
Arseniy Yatesenyuk asked Yanukovych a pertinent question from the floor: " You did a lot to be somehow benign to our Russian partners. You eliminated [our] NATO membership perspective, you extended the mandate to the Russian Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory. Despite this Russian is not really so co-operative, we still pay the highest price in Europe for gas, Mr president, what should you do with our Russian partners?"
[Video of Yatsenyuk's full question here - His mention of Tymoshenko gained some applause]
Instead of replying directly Yanukovych mentioned that Ukraine is successfully diversifying its energy security, and in particular described the construction of major solar power stations in the country.
Read Serhyi Leshchenko's award-winning exposure of the Ukrainian head of state's corrupt links with Austrian 'Activ Solar' who are tightly linked with these projects, [in English], here
And also from 'F.N.' here
Yanukovych was shamelessly putting in a 'plug' for his own corrupt company....No wonder he got the cold shoulder from Oettinger.
More on this story from 'ZIK' here
p.s. Ex-ua - another black mark on the current administration?
Wednesday, February 01, 2012
A cross to be placed on Human Rights in Ukraine?
When Yanukovych was elected president, Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers, prosecutor general's office, tax collection service, and the judiciary were almost immediately packed with his associates from the Donetsk region in a grossly disproportionate manner.
Since then the process has continued at lower levels too and a large number of top jobs in Ukraine's oblast' administrations, police, prosecutors, tax inspectors offices etc, across the country have fell into the hands of president's trustees from Donbas. Compaints about placement of 'overseers' is legion.
The 'Expres' website earlier this week published an article with comprehensive list of examples of this process .
One observer says: Today's authorities do not take into account the professionalism of candidates, but rather whether or not they are natives of the Donetsk region they can personally trust. There is no place for 'foreigners'. The main criterion is personal loyalty..this is the road to nowhere..
Today Sonya Koshkina in 'LB.com' provides another example of how the 'power vertikal' is becoming ever-more concentrated in the hands of a small band of 'Donetskiites'.
Next week Ukraine's Human Rights Ombudsman is to be re-appointed but it seems unlikely that the incumbent, Nina Karpachova, will be permitted to continue in her position. When she visited Yulia Tymoshenko in Kyiv's Lukyanov investigative isolation unit late last year she demanded doctors be allowed to treat the former PM. Karpachova called the situation "unacceptable" and contrary to European norms and conventions..
Last May she declared there was no reason for former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko to be detained in prison and added that she would raise this issue with Ukraine’s prosecutor-general.
Favourite to replace her is the highly disreputable Hennadiy Vasiliev. He was head of the Donetsk prosecutor's office in the lawless early '90's when dozen's of businessmen were killed in the region as local state assets, factories and property were 'redistributed'. Needless to say, almost none of the cases were ever solved or perpetrators brought to justice.
He has been a PoR parliamentary deputy for several convocations, a deputy parliamentary speaker, former Prosecutor General etc. etc. as well as being a big-shot businessman.
Despite always being employed in public service, "Focus" magazine in early 2008 reckoned he was worth about $575 million, while "Korrespondent", in the same year, claimed the figure was $ 1.67billion, i.e. 16th place on the list of Ukraine's richest men.
In 2003-2004 as Prosecutor-General Vasiliev did his utmost to 'bury' the Gongadze case, and he was also linked to several dubious large land deals in and around Kyiv. After the Orange Revolution his laid low, but was re-elected to parliament in 2007. He has very rarely bothered to turn up or show his face there since then.
When Yanukovych became president, he appointed Vasiliev deputy head of the president's administration whilst he simultaneously holding onto his seat in the Verkhovna Rada - a situation not permitted by Ukraine's constitution. Since 2007 Vasiliev has never spoke from the parliamentary podium nor asked one parliamentary question.
In 2011, his name resurfaced in the media when he was linked to raiders' attacks on "Donetskstal." Because of these, trading in shares of the company on the Stock Exchange were suspended for several months, resulting not only in serious losses to the owners, but also serious upheavals in the market as a whole. Many observers considered Vasiliev behind these attempts to squeeze "Donetskstal".
Sonya Koshkina concludes: "He has been nominated of course, so that a cross can finally placed on Human Rights in Ukraine. Vasiliev and duties of ombudsman are concepts as incompatible as Viktor Yanukovych and reforms, or Viktor Yushchenko and decency."
She is correct. It is grotesque that such a person could ever be considered for the post of Human Rights ombudsman, particularly when Ukaine's legal system and judiciary are in such a shambolic state. Vasiliev has as much interest in Human Rights as King Herod had in child welfare..
Since then the process has continued at lower levels too and a large number of top jobs in Ukraine's oblast' administrations, police, prosecutors, tax inspectors offices etc, across the country have fell into the hands of president's trustees from Donbas. Compaints about placement of 'overseers' is legion.
The 'Expres' website earlier this week published an article with comprehensive list of examples of this process .
One observer says: Today's authorities do not take into account the professionalism of candidates, but rather whether or not they are natives of the Donetsk region they can personally trust. There is no place for 'foreigners'. The main criterion is personal loyalty..this is the road to nowhere..
Today Sonya Koshkina in 'LB.com' provides another example of how the 'power vertikal' is becoming ever-more concentrated in the hands of a small band of 'Donetskiites'.
Next week Ukraine's Human Rights Ombudsman is to be re-appointed but it seems unlikely that the incumbent, Nina Karpachova, will be permitted to continue in her position. When she visited Yulia Tymoshenko in Kyiv's Lukyanov investigative isolation unit late last year she demanded doctors be allowed to treat the former PM. Karpachova called the situation "unacceptable" and contrary to European norms and conventions..
Last May she declared there was no reason for former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko to be detained in prison and added that she would raise this issue with Ukraine’s prosecutor-general.
Favourite to replace her is the highly disreputable Hennadiy Vasiliev. He was head of the Donetsk prosecutor's office in the lawless early '90's when dozen's of businessmen were killed in the region as local state assets, factories and property were 'redistributed'. Needless to say, almost none of the cases were ever solved or perpetrators brought to justice.
He has been a PoR parliamentary deputy for several convocations, a deputy parliamentary speaker, former Prosecutor General etc. etc. as well as being a big-shot businessman.
Despite always being employed in public service, "Focus" magazine in early 2008 reckoned he was worth about $575 million, while "Korrespondent", in the same year, claimed the figure was $ 1.67billion, i.e. 16th place on the list of Ukraine's richest men.
In 2003-2004 as Prosecutor-General Vasiliev did his utmost to 'bury' the Gongadze case, and he was also linked to several dubious large land deals in and around Kyiv. After the Orange Revolution his laid low, but was re-elected to parliament in 2007. He has very rarely bothered to turn up or show his face there since then.
When Yanukovych became president, he appointed Vasiliev deputy head of the president's administration whilst he simultaneously holding onto his seat in the Verkhovna Rada - a situation not permitted by Ukraine's constitution. Since 2007 Vasiliev has never spoke from the parliamentary podium nor asked one parliamentary question.
In 2011, his name resurfaced in the media when he was linked to raiders' attacks on "Donetskstal." Because of these, trading in shares of the company on the Stock Exchange were suspended for several months, resulting not only in serious losses to the owners, but also serious upheavals in the market as a whole. Many observers considered Vasiliev behind these attempts to squeeze "Donetskstal".
Sonya Koshkina concludes: "He has been nominated of course, so that a cross can finally placed on Human Rights in Ukraine. Vasiliev and duties of ombudsman are concepts as incompatible as Viktor Yanukovych and reforms, or Viktor Yushchenko and decency."
She is correct. It is grotesque that such a person could ever be considered for the post of Human Rights ombudsman, particularly when Ukaine's legal system and judiciary are in such a shambolic state. Vasiliev has as much interest in Human Rights as King Herod had in child welfare..
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Iron Yulia
Several days ago the Russian NTV television channel, allegedly controlled by the Kremlin, premiered a biographic documentary film entitled "Iron Yulia".
Perhaps unexpectedly, it portrayed its subject, Yulia Tymoshenko, in a favourable light. There was little that could be negatively perceived by a Russian, or by a wider audience. Few details of her shady UESU gas trading activities, or even her crucial role in the Orange Revolution where detailed.
One Ukrainian political analyst says the Kremlin is indicating Russia has not forgotten about Yulia Tymoshenko and consider her an alternative to Viktor Yanukovych, particulary as those who imprisoned her now believe she has ceased to be an alternative. It is no accident the film appeared during a period of cooling relations between the president's administration and the Kremlin, when there is little common ground on the issue of gas and Ukraine's gas transportation system.
[Source]
The film could even be a turning point in Tymoshenko's fortunes, though Yanukovych is doing his utmost to keep his arch-enemy under his boot.
But as with the other 'Iron Lady' - the fascination endures... Like it or not, we live in an era of political celebrity..and her incarceration merely adds to the myth..
Perhaps unexpectedly, it portrayed its subject, Yulia Tymoshenko, in a favourable light. There was little that could be negatively perceived by a Russian, or by a wider audience. Few details of her shady UESU gas trading activities, or even her crucial role in the Orange Revolution where detailed.
One Ukrainian political analyst says the Kremlin is indicating Russia has not forgotten about Yulia Tymoshenko and consider her an alternative to Viktor Yanukovych, particulary as those who imprisoned her now believe she has ceased to be an alternative. It is no accident the film appeared during a period of cooling relations between the president's administration and the Kremlin, when there is little common ground on the issue of gas and Ukraine's gas transportation system.
[Source]
The film could even be a turning point in Tymoshenko's fortunes, though Yanukovych is doing his utmost to keep his arch-enemy under his boot.
But as with the other 'Iron Lady' - the fascination endures... Like it or not, we live in an era of political celebrity..and her incarceration merely adds to the myth..
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Lutsenko court parody continues
If students of law want to know what a politically motivated show trial looks like they need not look into history books. All they have to do is observe what is going on in Kyiv's Pechersky District Court where former Ukrainian Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is being tried..
Yesterday [Tuesday] the presiding judge made no insistence that witnesses attend the court in person to provide testimony that could be be subjected to scrutiny. Instead, he merely "read out more than 20 out of nearly 40 protocols of the interrogation of witnesses who gave evidence during pre-trial investigation at the Prosecutor General's Office and those who said that they could not attend court sessions for various reasons and circumstances."
Many, perhaps most of the 80 or more witnesses that have already given evidence in the courtroom either revoked testimonies they provided to prosecutors, or complained they were coerced into giving misleading evidence.
The entire case has become a parody of legal procedure. The judge is now deliberately bulldozing the trial in order to reach a verdict and sentencing before Lutsenko's case is heard in the European Court of Human Rights in a few weeks time.
[Read more here]
And also from 'ForeignNotes' here and here about how the judge is being blackmailed to give the 'correct' verdict.
p.s. Video from TVi's 'Znak Oklyku' on the Ukrainian Prosecutors' banal and blatant misuse of its powers to coerce witnesses, grooming of witnesses, and invention of false evidence to enable Lutsenko's closest circle to be hounded here
Yesterday [Tuesday] the presiding judge made no insistence that witnesses attend the court in person to provide testimony that could be be subjected to scrutiny. Instead, he merely "read out more than 20 out of nearly 40 protocols of the interrogation of witnesses who gave evidence during pre-trial investigation at the Prosecutor General's Office and those who said that they could not attend court sessions for various reasons and circumstances."
Many, perhaps most of the 80 or more witnesses that have already given evidence in the courtroom either revoked testimonies they provided to prosecutors, or complained they were coerced into giving misleading evidence.
The entire case has become a parody of legal procedure. The judge is now deliberately bulldozing the trial in order to reach a verdict and sentencing before Lutsenko's case is heard in the European Court of Human Rights in a few weeks time.
[Read more here]
And also from 'ForeignNotes' here and here about how the judge is being blackmailed to give the 'correct' verdict.
p.s. Video from TVi's 'Znak Oklyku' on the Ukrainian Prosecutors' banal and blatant misuse of its powers to coerce witnesses, grooming of witnesses, and invention of false evidence to enable Lutsenko's closest circle to be hounded here
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Why would anyone walk away from $80 million?
Early summer last year a huge scandal emerged: the Ukrainian state company 'ChornomorNaftogaz' purchased a deep sea drilling rig for $ 400 million after what supposedly was a competitive tender process. In the event, only two intermediary companies - the New Zealand Falcona Systems Ltd, and the Cardiff UK-based Highway Investment Processing LLP submitted tenders.
According to their published accounts the source suppliers of the rig, the Norwegian SDRL-Seadrill, received almost $250 million for the rig, so the winners of the tendering process, Highway Investment Processing LLP, took a mind-numbing $ 150 million 'cut' on the deal.
[Highway Investment Processing LLP offices, incidentally lie between 'Tony's Italian and North Indian Cuisine Cafe', 'Chillies Take-Away', and 'Tattoo-U' tattoo parlour, in Cardiff, Wales.]
More here and here
'ChornomorNaftogaz' paid 80% up-front. The rig is currently in a Turkish port having its legs welded on, and the balance is to be paid after installation on site.
However, 'Ukrainska Pravda's investigation of records of the official British comanies' registrar, "Companies House" reveal that 'Highway Investment Processing LLP' is being dissolved, and "will be struck off the register....Upon dissolution, all property and rights vested in, or held in trust for hte LLP..will belong to the crown [i.e. the British Sovereign and State]".
Big questions: Why is a nameplate company which will be 20% of $400 million, i.e. $80 million richer in several months, being wound up? An why should 'ChornomorNaftogaz' pay the balance to a company that will cease to exist in less than 3 months?
Yuriy Boyko was asked about this business on Friday's 'Velyka Polityka z Yevheniem Kyselyovym' by AFP journalist Anya Tsukanova. He rather shiftily responded that transportation of the rig to site cost $15 million... for the other bits and bobs just ask Halliburton [Oilfield Services] who are responsible for its commissioning. And that's it. A Ukrainian proverb came to LEvko's mind: A thief's hat is always on fire....
The creepy Kyselyov, instead of following up the question, sensing Boyko's discomfort, muttered something about Halliburton being a huge US company once led by former secretary of defense Dick Cheney...and moved on.
Everyone knows the whole thing stinks to high heaven....sooner or later chickens will come home to roost..
p.s. If Halliburton are to be paid by 'Highway Investment Processing' for the commissioning work on the rig, they'll surely be getting worried about receiving payment, no? They will have conducted due diligence, so will be aware of the dirty little secrets...
p.p.s. 'Znak Oklyku' documentary on this topic here
According to their published accounts the source suppliers of the rig, the Norwegian SDRL-Seadrill, received almost $250 million for the rig, so the winners of the tendering process, Highway Investment Processing LLP, took a mind-numbing $ 150 million 'cut' on the deal.
[Highway Investment Processing LLP offices, incidentally lie between 'Tony's Italian and North Indian Cuisine Cafe', 'Chillies Take-Away', and 'Tattoo-U' tattoo parlour, in Cardiff, Wales.]
More here and here
'ChornomorNaftogaz' paid 80% up-front. The rig is currently in a Turkish port having its legs welded on, and the balance is to be paid after installation on site.
However, 'Ukrainska Pravda's investigation of records of the official British comanies' registrar, "Companies House" reveal that 'Highway Investment Processing LLP' is being dissolved, and "will be struck off the register....Upon dissolution, all property and rights vested in, or held in trust for hte LLP..will belong to the crown [i.e. the British Sovereign and State]".
Big questions: Why is a nameplate company which will be 20% of $400 million, i.e. $80 million richer in several months, being wound up? An why should 'ChornomorNaftogaz' pay the balance to a company that will cease to exist in less than 3 months?
Yuriy Boyko was asked about this business on Friday's 'Velyka Polityka z Yevheniem Kyselyovym' by AFP journalist Anya Tsukanova. He rather shiftily responded that transportation of the rig to site cost $15 million... for the other bits and bobs just ask Halliburton [Oilfield Services] who are responsible for its commissioning. And that's it. A Ukrainian proverb came to LEvko's mind: A thief's hat is always on fire....
The creepy Kyselyov, instead of following up the question, sensing Boyko's discomfort, muttered something about Halliburton being a huge US company once led by former secretary of defense Dick Cheney...and moved on.
Everyone knows the whole thing stinks to high heaven....sooner or later chickens will come home to roost..
p.s. If Halliburton are to be paid by 'Highway Investment Processing' for the commissioning work on the rig, they'll surely be getting worried about receiving payment, no? They will have conducted due diligence, so will be aware of the dirty little secrets...
p.p.s. 'Znak Oklyku' documentary on this topic here
Friday, January 20, 2012
Lutsenko's writhes in pain as court judge ignores his appeals [Updated]
The grotesque spectacle of former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko's trial continues...
Today [Thursday] the court sat for an unprecedented 14 hours - until 11.30 in the evening; and is set to continue Friday at 8.05 am. During the day Lutsenko complained he was feeling ill and doubled up in severe pain. Paramedics were summoned to attend to the accused on four occasions [some reports said five] through the day and he was administered painkilling injections several times. He spent periods lying down in the courtroom cage as proceedings continued..
So many witnesses have either given evidence in support of Lutsenko or have complained of pressure from prosecutors to 'rat' on him that in any normal court the presiding judge would have dismissed the trial many months ago, or declared a mistrial.
French human fights Ambassador Francois Zimeray, who attended the trial, declared Lutsenko's treatment to be inhuman and illegal.
The judge must really be having his balls squeezed hard by puppetmasters....
The judge must really be having his balls squeezed hard by puppetmasters....
[Photo source]
p.s. On Friday Lutsenko did not appear in court. His defence council said that he had returned to his cell at 2.00 am and was awoken at 4.30 am in readiness for Friday's court session...
What is the point of such vindictive and despicable treatment of to the accused? LEvko suggests: to demonstrate to Ukrainians who is now in total command.. who has absolute power...and to spread fear by providing an example of what happens to those the authorities consider a threat to their omnipotence ..
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Khoroshkovsky and RUE group tighten grip
Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko, presidential administration head Serhiy Lyovochkin, former State Security Service of Ukraine head, as-of-today Minister of Finance, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, and RosUkrEnergo part-owner Dmytro Firtash have many times been accused by Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and others of large-scale corruption and conflicts of interest in the natural gas trade.
"Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, repeating accusations she made while in power, alleged on Sept. 6 [2010] that all four men are business associates in either the gas trade or in media holdings, making it a massive conflict of interest for these government officials to be involved in decisions that could transfer $5 billion worth of the state's natural gas supplies back to RosUkrEnergo, 45 percent owned by Firtash. " [Source]
And yet: "According to government figures, Ostchem, a company through which he [Firtash] has consolidated control over much of Ukraine’s chemical business, imported with Russian permission about 5 billion cubic meters of Central Asian gas in 2011. Moreover, sources close to Firtash claim it imports the gas at significantly lower prices than the blue fuel that goes through Naftogaz. These are privileges that few have and it has yet to be explained why Russia would give these favors to Firtash."[Read more]
As Interfax recently reported: "According to the Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex (CDU TEK), Ukraine imported 44.7 bcm of natural gas in 2011 - Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy received 39.175 bcm, and independent importer Ostchem Holding, which belongs to Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash, imported 5.53 bcm of Turkmen gas."
How can Ukraine possibly get a fair deal on gas when it's chief negotiators with Gazprom are involved in such a massive inside deal?
As for Khoroshkovsky, who was appointed by presidential decree - he and the RUE faction will now be working ever closer with 'the Yanukovych Family' for their further mutual self-enrichment.
The 'metallurgical wing' of PoR is being well looked after too, in case they get jealous...
"Ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, repeating accusations she made while in power, alleged on Sept. 6 [2010] that all four men are business associates in either the gas trade or in media holdings, making it a massive conflict of interest for these government officials to be involved in decisions that could transfer $5 billion worth of the state's natural gas supplies back to RosUkrEnergo, 45 percent owned by Firtash. " [Source]
And yet: "According to government figures, Ostchem, a company through which he [Firtash] has consolidated control over much of Ukraine’s chemical business, imported with Russian permission about 5 billion cubic meters of Central Asian gas in 2011. Moreover, sources close to Firtash claim it imports the gas at significantly lower prices than the blue fuel that goes through Naftogaz. These are privileges that few have and it has yet to be explained why Russia would give these favors to Firtash."[Read more]
As Interfax recently reported: "According to the Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex (CDU TEK), Ukraine imported 44.7 bcm of natural gas in 2011 - Ukraine's national oil and gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy received 39.175 bcm, and independent importer Ostchem Holding, which belongs to Ukrainian businessman Dmytro Firtash, imported 5.53 bcm of Turkmen gas."
How can Ukraine possibly get a fair deal on gas when it's chief negotiators with Gazprom are involved in such a massive inside deal?
As for Khoroshkovsky, who was appointed by presidential decree - he and the RUE faction will now be working ever closer with 'the Yanukovych Family' for their further mutual self-enrichment.
The 'metallurgical wing' of PoR is being well looked after too, in case they get jealous...
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
Tymoshenko being poisoned? [Updated]
I suppose that it was inevitable - sooner or later reports about the possible poisoning of former PM Yulia Tymoshenko, who is now encarcerated in a penal colony near Kharkiv, would emerge. One 'expert' toxicologist now considers she may be being poisoned with thallium [as favoured by the Russian FSB..]
It is not unreasonable to consider that something peculiar did occur on 6th January over the Orthodox Christmas period, when she apparently lost consciousness after taking medication and was quickly taken to hospital by ambulance for scans and tests. It is unlikely such a turn of events would have been preplanned by the authorities.
Tymoshenko's daughter Yevheniya is currently publicising her mother's predicament in Western Europe - and providing good copy for the media.
Until the former PM is examined by independent foreign physicians the allegations of maltreatment and denial of proper medical care, etc. etc. will continue...this will eventually dawn on Yanukovych and his spin doctors..
Many Ukrainians will take a jaundiced view of the shenanigans surrounding Tymoshenko, which may be a diversionary tactic designed to make citizens think less about their worsening economic situation, but in Europe...everyone remembers Yushchenko's face...Lytvynenko..and will think...on top of a most dubious trial?...hmmm...
Update: Just a few hours after reports of alleged poisoning of Yulia T. the Prosecutor General's office say they will permit foreign medical experts to examine Tymoshenko...However,
in Ukraine the gap between declarations and realisations is often infinite..And just as in the Yushchenko poisoning so many false trails are laid, allegations and counter-allegations made that getting to the truth is impossible.
Today that bad joke of a deputy Prosecutor General Renat Kuzmin threatened to open a criminal case against former president Yushchenko if it is found that his blood samples were falsified..
It is not unreasonable to consider that something peculiar did occur on 6th January over the Orthodox Christmas period, when she apparently lost consciousness after taking medication and was quickly taken to hospital by ambulance for scans and tests. It is unlikely such a turn of events would have been preplanned by the authorities.
Tymoshenko's daughter Yevheniya is currently publicising her mother's predicament in Western Europe - and providing good copy for the media.
Until the former PM is examined by independent foreign physicians the allegations of maltreatment and denial of proper medical care, etc. etc. will continue...this will eventually dawn on Yanukovych and his spin doctors..
Many Ukrainians will take a jaundiced view of the shenanigans surrounding Tymoshenko, which may be a diversionary tactic designed to make citizens think less about their worsening economic situation, but in Europe...everyone remembers Yushchenko's face...Lytvynenko..and will think...on top of a most dubious trial?...hmmm...
Update: Just a few hours after reports of alleged poisoning of Yulia T. the Prosecutor General's office say they will permit foreign medical experts to examine Tymoshenko...However,
in Ukraine the gap between declarations and realisations is often infinite..And just as in the Yushchenko poisoning so many false trails are laid, allegations and counter-allegations made that getting to the truth is impossible.
Today that bad joke of a deputy Prosecutor General Renat Kuzmin threatened to open a criminal case against former president Yushchenko if it is found that his blood samples were falsified..
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Sooner or later people will demand their money back
This is from Alexander Lebedev's blog in 'The Guardian. [Lebedev owns several British newspapers].
Much of what he says applies to Ukraine also.
"Everybody knows what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union. A few opportunistic businessmen swooped like vultures to claim whole industries for themselves. Quickly, they made hundreds of millions by monopolising them. The Kremlin, whose long slide into autocracy shows no sign of relenting, made deals with several of them, knowing it would be easier to keep them on side than to open up Russia's economy to proper procedures, competition, and fair trade. That's the story people are familiar with. But something is beginning to change. First of all, several of these men – it's almost always men, I'm afraid – have grievances with each other which date back many years; but they have only recently called in their lawyers. So expect more disputes in the manner of Berezovsky v Abramovich soon.
Second, the sheer scale of the losses to the Russian people – in shady deals and contracts, and lost productivity, jobs, and income – is only now becoming clear. My own estimate is that over $500bn has been effectively stolen from the Russian people between 2003-2011; economists I speak to in Moscow suggest it could be more. Russia's struggling citizens have every right to reclaim these funds, and as awareness of this vast sum spreads across the country, so too will intolerance of it. When demonstrations broke out in Moscow before Christmas, it was noticeable how many of the protesters were demanding their money back from the Kremlin."
Much of what he says applies to Ukraine also.
"Everybody knows what happened after the fall of the Soviet Union. A few opportunistic businessmen swooped like vultures to claim whole industries for themselves. Quickly, they made hundreds of millions by monopolising them. The Kremlin, whose long slide into autocracy shows no sign of relenting, made deals with several of them, knowing it would be easier to keep them on side than to open up Russia's economy to proper procedures, competition, and fair trade. That's the story people are familiar with. But something is beginning to change. First of all, several of these men – it's almost always men, I'm afraid – have grievances with each other which date back many years; but they have only recently called in their lawyers. So expect more disputes in the manner of Berezovsky v Abramovich soon.
Second, the sheer scale of the losses to the Russian people – in shady deals and contracts, and lost productivity, jobs, and income – is only now becoming clear. My own estimate is that over $500bn has been effectively stolen from the Russian people between 2003-2011; economists I speak to in Moscow suggest it could be more. Russia's struggling citizens have every right to reclaim these funds, and as awareness of this vast sum spreads across the country, so too will intolerance of it. When demonstrations broke out in Moscow before Christmas, it was noticeable how many of the protesters were demanding their money back from the Kremlin."
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Ukraine could do much more to renegotiate gas price with Russia
Today former PM Yulia Tymoshenko wrote a letter to Parliament from her prison cell warning that a new government would denounce any possible lease of the Ukrainian gas transportation system.
She also declared that the now infamous contract which followed the head-to-head Putin-Tymoshenko gas crisis negotiations in early 2009 included a clause whereby the price of gas could be modified without penalty.
On 22nd January 2009 'Ukrainska Pravda' published what they alleged was a leaked copy of the 10-year contract signed by former Naftohaz Ukrainy head Oleh Dubina, and Gazprom's CEO Alexey Miller.
Sure enough, paragraph 4.4 says: "If either side declares that circumstances on the market for fuel-energy products have changed significantly in relation to that which the sides substantially expected when the current contract was concluded, and the contract price indicated in paragraph 4.1 of the current contract does not reflect the level of prices on the market, then the sides [can] enter into negotiations on the review of the contract prices corresponding to the conditions of the current contract."
The contract also includes articles [paragraph 8.1 onward] on regulating disputes by arbitration, and also confidentiality clauses.
Why does the current adminstration, instead of complaining about the high price they are paying for Russian gas - supposedly much greater that that being paid by European customers, do everything possible permitted under the terms of the contract to get the price lowered?
Reason? Side-deals and huge kickbacks?...And as a bonus, Tymoshenko can take the blame and be locked away for seven years?
She also declared that the now infamous contract which followed the head-to-head Putin-Tymoshenko gas crisis negotiations in early 2009 included a clause whereby the price of gas could be modified without penalty.
On 22nd January 2009 'Ukrainska Pravda' published what they alleged was a leaked copy of the 10-year contract signed by former Naftohaz Ukrainy head Oleh Dubina, and Gazprom's CEO Alexey Miller.
Sure enough, paragraph 4.4 says: "If either side declares that circumstances on the market for fuel-energy products have changed significantly in relation to that which the sides substantially expected when the current contract was concluded, and the contract price indicated in paragraph 4.1 of the current contract does not reflect the level of prices on the market, then the sides [can] enter into negotiations on the review of the contract prices corresponding to the conditions of the current contract."
The contract also includes articles [paragraph 8.1 onward] on regulating disputes by arbitration, and also confidentiality clauses.
Why does the current adminstration, instead of complaining about the high price they are paying for Russian gas - supposedly much greater that that being paid by European customers, do everything possible permitted under the terms of the contract to get the price lowered?
Reason? Side-deals and huge kickbacks?...And as a bonus, Tymoshenko can take the blame and be locked away for seven years?
Monday, January 09, 2012
Gloomy assessment for 2012
In their last issue of 2011 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' asked 20 emminent Ukrainian journalists, political technologists, sociologists, writers, civic leaders etc. whether a change in government is possible in 2012.
Readers of the internet version could register whether they agree or disagree with any of the opinions expressed by any of the commenters.
In general the tone of the article is gloomy - the country seems to be in a state of deep malaise. Reader's assessments underscore this.
Here are a few [edited] comments:
Vitaliy Portnikov -TV journalist:
For me it is clear that post-Soviet system of governance and social division has exhausted itself - and not only in Ukraine. A [period of] global redistribution of power and a changes of elite approaching throughout the former Soviet Union. I would not like to be a prophet and say for certain that this redistribution will take place in Ukraine in 2012, but it is inevitable. And this will certainly not be just a banal regime change - the depths of the shocks experienced could easily be comparable to those of the early 90's.
2842 Agree, 149 Disagree
But journalist Mustafa Nayem considers any change is not possible at the the moment. Those who could potentially take over power are not capable of explaining why those currently in power are worse that they are. Agree 1827, Disagree 254
Nayem's TV colleague Mykola Knyazytskyi, considers a change is possible. If the country's basic democratic principles are neglected and there are no resources to fulfill the social needs of its citizens, mass protests may start any minute, and no one can predict when they could start. The Ukrainian political system was reformed by Viktor Yanukovych himself so he has taken the entire responsibility for what happens in the country onto himself. Sociological reports indicate that neither he nor his party command a majority of the electorate. Quite simply he is not liked as a leader. Dictators can retain power either by bayonets, or by the love of the people...And if there is no love, then Facebook and Twitter - are much more powerful weapons than bayonets. And an unloved and disarmed politician cannot retain power [for long periods]. Agree 2269, Disagree 84
And this, probably more sober analysis, from the writer Andriy Kurkov:
..Today, no real political rivals [ready to challenge] the party [of Regions] exist. If the nearest party to them [Tymoshenko's] "Batkivschyna", gain a majority in parliamentary elections, an interesting situation may arise when a lot of the MP's who deserted earlier to "Regiony"return. Then, together they could change the party leadership, and if necessary declare "Batkivshchyna" the reformed PoR. I, like many citizens do not see any ideological difference between these parties.
PoR has become knows as a "rough bulldozer" which clears all the best locations for construction sites for its close circle. However, it is difficult to believe that with the coming of the new political force anything would change suddenly. Ukraine remains a desert, not only in an economical but also in a political sense. There is an attitude of protest amonst the people - they are ready to vote "against". But they are more "against' that which exists than "for" what is to come. There is a catastrophic lack of ideological competition in the country...The ideology of the main parties is just money and desire to remain in power as long as possible, which means control of state and budgetary finances and control of the security forces and justice. With these you can continue to legalize the duration of the period in power.
But nothing eternal exists, and new names will be added to the list of parties of power. If these new parties are not created by politicians from other camp, they will be created by the Party of Regions itself in order to ensure a "peaceful transfer of power" to a younger generation, i.e. their children in the literal as well as figurative sense.
Ukrainians will have to wait a long time for a George Washington. Particularly as the Ukrainian political scene has been infected with another dangerous virus - a virus of corporate retaliation, which is the main reason, for example, for the imprisonment of Yuri Lutsenko. Agree 945, Disagree 238
p.s. The successful, award-winning Danish political television drama 'Borgen' has just started a run on British TV. The central character is Birgitte Nyborg, leader of the Moderate party, who comes from behind in parliamentary elections as the result of a scandal involving the incumbent prime minister. In the first episode he used a government credit card to pay for some accessories and clothes at Burberry's for his wife on a trip to London. The sum involved was 70,000 Danish Krone [about 7,000 Euro] . This was enough to bring him down.
Nyborg herself cycles to work. She puts on weight during the election campaign and some of her clothes don't fit well. On the night of the election she returns home in a taxi...
Ukrainians would consider such a plot prepostrous.
Readers of the internet version could register whether they agree or disagree with any of the opinions expressed by any of the commenters.
In general the tone of the article is gloomy - the country seems to be in a state of deep malaise. Reader's assessments underscore this.
Here are a few [edited] comments:
Vitaliy Portnikov -TV journalist:
For me it is clear that post-Soviet system of governance and social division has exhausted itself - and not only in Ukraine. A [period of] global redistribution of power and a changes of elite approaching throughout the former Soviet Union. I would not like to be a prophet and say for certain that this redistribution will take place in Ukraine in 2012, but it is inevitable. And this will certainly not be just a banal regime change - the depths of the shocks experienced could easily be comparable to those of the early 90's.
2842 Agree, 149 Disagree
But journalist Mustafa Nayem considers any change is not possible at the the moment. Those who could potentially take over power are not capable of explaining why those currently in power are worse that they are. Agree 1827, Disagree 254
Nayem's TV colleague Mykola Knyazytskyi, considers a change is possible. If the country's basic democratic principles are neglected and there are no resources to fulfill the social needs of its citizens, mass protests may start any minute, and no one can predict when they could start. The Ukrainian political system was reformed by Viktor Yanukovych himself so he has taken the entire responsibility for what happens in the country onto himself. Sociological reports indicate that neither he nor his party command a majority of the electorate. Quite simply he is not liked as a leader. Dictators can retain power either by bayonets, or by the love of the people...And if there is no love, then Facebook and Twitter - are much more powerful weapons than bayonets. And an unloved and disarmed politician cannot retain power [for long periods]. Agree 2269, Disagree 84
And this, probably more sober analysis, from the writer Andriy Kurkov:
..Today, no real political rivals [ready to challenge] the party [of Regions] exist. If the nearest party to them [Tymoshenko's] "Batkivschyna", gain a majority in parliamentary elections, an interesting situation may arise when a lot of the MP's who deserted earlier to "Regiony"return. Then, together they could change the party leadership, and if necessary declare "Batkivshchyna" the reformed PoR. I, like many citizens do not see any ideological difference between these parties.
PoR has become knows as a "rough bulldozer" which clears all the best locations for construction sites for its close circle. However, it is difficult to believe that with the coming of the new political force anything would change suddenly. Ukraine remains a desert, not only in an economical but also in a political sense. There is an attitude of protest amonst the people - they are ready to vote "against". But they are more "against' that which exists than "for" what is to come. There is a catastrophic lack of ideological competition in the country...The ideology of the main parties is just money and desire to remain in power as long as possible, which means control of state and budgetary finances and control of the security forces and justice. With these you can continue to legalize the duration of the period in power.
But nothing eternal exists, and new names will be added to the list of parties of power. If these new parties are not created by politicians from other camp, they will be created by the Party of Regions itself in order to ensure a "peaceful transfer of power" to a younger generation, i.e. their children in the literal as well as figurative sense.
Ukrainians will have to wait a long time for a George Washington. Particularly as the Ukrainian political scene has been infected with another dangerous virus - a virus of corporate retaliation, which is the main reason, for example, for the imprisonment of Yuri Lutsenko. Agree 945, Disagree 238
p.s. The successful, award-winning Danish political television drama 'Borgen' has just started a run on British TV. The central character is Birgitte Nyborg, leader of the Moderate party, who comes from behind in parliamentary elections as the result of a scandal involving the incumbent prime minister. In the first episode he used a government credit card to pay for some accessories and clothes at Burberry's for his wife on a trip to London. The sum involved was 70,000 Danish Krone [about 7,000 Euro] . This was enough to bring him down.
Nyborg herself cycles to work. She puts on weight during the election campaign and some of her clothes don't fit well. On the night of the election she returns home in a taxi...
Ukrainians would consider such a plot prepostrous.
Friday, January 06, 2012
Thin-skinned Yanukovych
So, following the defacement of poster billboards depicting president Yanukovych in Lviv, written instructions have been handed out to local officials to make sure they are properly maintained, and local officials "react accordingly" in the event of their damage...Yanukovych was roundly boo'ed and heckled when opening the new Kyiv Olympic stadium several weeks ago, and even 'chickened out' from the opening of the new Lviv stadium. When his face was displayed on big screens, he was jeered and boo'ed.
What sort of reaction does he expect to get when he shows his face during the Euro 2012 competition?
The billboard says: 'This year will open up Ukraine to Europe and the World'....and reveal Yanukovych's popularity nose-diving...he had better get used to it.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
Tymoshenko overtakes Yanukovych in popularity
I've rather loosely translated an article from the Russian 'Nezavisimaya Gazeta' from a few days ago.
Tymoshenko overtakes Yanukovych in popularity -The Ukrainian president's team is losing ground even in his native Donbass
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is for the first time ahead of Yanukovych in rankings of popular sympathy. This, according to the Razumkov Centre, was one of the main political conclusions of 2011. The second, equally important O.P. result is the extremely high level of frustration, discontent and anxiety in the community which could lead to revolutionary scenario springing up in 2012 parliamentary elections.
Since the last presidential elections in 2010, Yanukovych has been ahead of Tymoshenko in all O.P.s. This has been attributed by experts to regional characteristics: the most stable electorate supporting the head of state lives in the densely populated industrial areas of eastern Ukraine. The opposition leader is most consistently supported the western regions which are more thinly populated. But right now the picture is becoming muddled. Many residents of the Donbass region, which had expected economic improvements with the appointment of their man as president, have instead experience the hardships of economic reform. As a result thy have become disillusioned with his political force.
Sympathy for the imprisoned Tymoshenko is increasing. There may be no increase in the number who trust Tymoshenko, but the perception that she has been maltreated is harming the authorities' ratings, says one expert.
How the situation has changed is revealed by the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Center. If presidential elections were held now, 16.3% would vote for Tymoshenko, 13.3% for Yanukovych. Third would be Arseniy Yatseniuk - 10.7%.
Sociologists note that significantly, 10.7% of Ukrainians would vote against all candidates, 11.9% would not take part in the elections, and14.7% were undecided. They interpret these figures thus: over 37% of citizens are waiting for a new leader and are possibly even ready to participate in the revolutionary scenarios. As a footnote, according to the Razumkov Center, over 67% of Ukrainians believe that events in the country are developing in the wrong direction.
Another pre-Christmas survey, by Centre Research & Branding Group, showed that 72% of citizens considered the outgoing year was difficult. Only a third of Ukrainians will celebrate the New Year in a festive mood with hopes for better to come. Another 42% suffer from anxiety and worry about the future.
Politologist Serhiy Taran says that the parliamentary election campaign, which will, in reality begin in the Spring, could be a catalyst for turmoil. "People do not take to the streets when they realize that it is not possible to change things any time soon. But during election campaigns there exists a mood of possible changes in society." He added though, that most politically aware Ukrainians do not not see enough leaders worthy of trust.
Director of the 'Penta' Center for Applied Policy Research, Volodymyr Fesenko says that the year-end rating of the party in power has declined, and this has slightly improved the situation for the opposition. But what is significant is the steep increase in the level of social tension.
At the same time Fesenko doubts that in the absence of new leaders will cause the situation to escalate to revolutionary events. Experts point out a paradox: Yanukovych's team, by trying to neutralize their main political rival are doing everything to increase Tymoshenko's rating. The authorities, although they are most fearful of national disturbances, are themselves provoking the growth of such sentiments in society.
LEvko's view is that you have to be pretty dumb to lock away your biggest political opponent when there is a realistic possibility her political force and its allies could secure a majority in parliamentary elections in less than a year's time. This should be most obvious bearing in mind how close Tymoshenko ran Yanukovych in the last presidential elections and how great a portion of the electorate would never vote for Yanukovych or his allies.
The current administration are lucky that Arseniy Yatsenyuk and other opposition leaders are men of moderation...for now. But the chance of grasping power, and events that inevitably happen, change men...
Even normally level-headed commentators, eg. in 'Kommersant' are predicting likely increases in acts of disobedience and protest this year.
Tymoshenko overtakes Yanukovych in popularity -The Ukrainian president's team is losing ground even in his native Donbass
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is for the first time ahead of Yanukovych in rankings of popular sympathy. This, according to the Razumkov Centre, was one of the main political conclusions of 2011. The second, equally important O.P. result is the extremely high level of frustration, discontent and anxiety in the community which could lead to revolutionary scenario springing up in 2012 parliamentary elections.
Since the last presidential elections in 2010, Yanukovych has been ahead of Tymoshenko in all O.P.s. This has been attributed by experts to regional characteristics: the most stable electorate supporting the head of state lives in the densely populated industrial areas of eastern Ukraine. The opposition leader is most consistently supported the western regions which are more thinly populated. But right now the picture is becoming muddled. Many residents of the Donbass region, which had expected economic improvements with the appointment of their man as president, have instead experience the hardships of economic reform. As a result thy have become disillusioned with his political force.
Sympathy for the imprisoned Tymoshenko is increasing. There may be no increase in the number who trust Tymoshenko, but the perception that she has been maltreated is harming the authorities' ratings, says one expert.
How the situation has changed is revealed by the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Razumkov Center. If presidential elections were held now, 16.3% would vote for Tymoshenko, 13.3% for Yanukovych. Third would be Arseniy Yatseniuk - 10.7%.
Sociologists note that significantly, 10.7% of Ukrainians would vote against all candidates, 11.9% would not take part in the elections, and14.7% were undecided. They interpret these figures thus: over 37% of citizens are waiting for a new leader and are possibly even ready to participate in the revolutionary scenarios. As a footnote, according to the Razumkov Center, over 67% of Ukrainians believe that events in the country are developing in the wrong direction.
Another pre-Christmas survey, by Centre Research & Branding Group, showed that 72% of citizens considered the outgoing year was difficult. Only a third of Ukrainians will celebrate the New Year in a festive mood with hopes for better to come. Another 42% suffer from anxiety and worry about the future.
Politologist Serhiy Taran says that the parliamentary election campaign, which will, in reality begin in the Spring, could be a catalyst for turmoil. "People do not take to the streets when they realize that it is not possible to change things any time soon. But during election campaigns there exists a mood of possible changes in society." He added though, that most politically aware Ukrainians do not not see enough leaders worthy of trust.
Director of the 'Penta' Center for Applied Policy Research, Volodymyr Fesenko says that the year-end rating of the party in power has declined, and this has slightly improved the situation for the opposition. But what is significant is the steep increase in the level of social tension.
At the same time Fesenko doubts that in the absence of new leaders will cause the situation to escalate to revolutionary events. Experts point out a paradox: Yanukovych's team, by trying to neutralize their main political rival are doing everything to increase Tymoshenko's rating. The authorities, although they are most fearful of national disturbances, are themselves provoking the growth of such sentiments in society.
LEvko's view is that you have to be pretty dumb to lock away your biggest political opponent when there is a realistic possibility her political force and its allies could secure a majority in parliamentary elections in less than a year's time. This should be most obvious bearing in mind how close Tymoshenko ran Yanukovych in the last presidential elections and how great a portion of the electorate would never vote for Yanukovych or his allies.
The current administration are lucky that Arseniy Yatsenyuk and other opposition leaders are men of moderation...for now. But the chance of grasping power, and events that inevitably happen, change men...
Even normally level-headed commentators, eg. in 'Kommersant' are predicting likely increases in acts of disobedience and protest this year.
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