Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?
56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..
Over 18 thousand votes so far...
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Yatsenyuk still favourite for PM
Interesting straw poll in big-selling 'Segodnya' website.
Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?
56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..
Over 18 thousand votes so far...
Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?
56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..
Over 18 thousand votes so far...
Tuesday, July 29, 2014
Klimkin explains Ukraine's position in Washington
Watch a rather dozy Foreign Minister of Ukraine speaking at today's Atlantic Council event
"Wartime Diplomacy, A Discussion with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin":
[Starts about 18 minutes in]
Klimkin claimed three years ago: "Tymoshenko's trial is not a witch-hunt"...Men such as him and his colleagues at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by strictly adhering to this view, by working to crush Yanukovych's greatest political opponent, caused the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement to be delayed for many months...a calamity that has cost Ukraine very, very dear...
"When young democracy criminalizes political disputes, it won't long stay a democracy. See Russia, Yanik's Ukraine..."
p.s. Also this fascinating brief CNN interview with brilliant young journalist, Ben Judah about Putin's weird, saddo lifestyle..Can such an isololated man make rational decisions?
"Wartime Diplomacy, A Discussion with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin":
[Starts about 18 minutes in]
Klimkin claimed three years ago: "Tymoshenko's trial is not a witch-hunt"...Men such as him and his colleagues at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by strictly adhering to this view, by working to crush Yanukovych's greatest political opponent, caused the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement to be delayed for many months...a calamity that has cost Ukraine very, very dear...
"When young democracy criminalizes political disputes, it won't long stay a democracy. See Russia, Yanik's Ukraine..."
p.s. Also this fascinating brief CNN interview with brilliant young journalist, Ben Judah about Putin's weird, saddo lifestyle..Can such an isololated man make rational decisions?
Saturday, July 26, 2014
Beyond reasonable doubt
AP now provide the most detailed account to date of the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, in this report.
Their journalists happened to be on the spot last week when it occurred.
It is almost certain the highly trained crew that operated the Buk M-1 missile system used in the fatal attack were from Russia. Their monumental error was the result of the crew having to depend on moronic separatists who identified their target.
The Buk crew and their separatist collaborators had been seen by AP journalists wearing distinctly differing camo outfits.
Your humble blogger lives on top of a hill. On summer evenings he likes to watch the con trails of high-flying aircraft while sitting in the garden. Sometimes, in order to identify the aircraft and their destination, together with family members we get this readily available data from www.flightradar24.com website in a matter of seconds.
We tracked Yanukovych's air liner as it fled from Kyiv in February...[he was not on board]
A 10-year old armed with a simple compass can can use it, but the morons in Snizhne who killed 300 innocents were not capable...
Some pompous commentators who should know better claim: "The downing of flight MH17 was clearly an accident. " ..shame on them.
p.s. Is the the delay by AP in posting of this story due them submitting all their information to appropriate aviation investigative bodies, and agreeing to 'sit tight for one week' before publishing?
Their journalists happened to be on the spot last week when it occurred.
It is almost certain the highly trained crew that operated the Buk M-1 missile system used in the fatal attack were from Russia. Their monumental error was the result of the crew having to depend on moronic separatists who identified their target.
The Buk crew and their separatist collaborators had been seen by AP journalists wearing distinctly differing camo outfits.
Your humble blogger lives on top of a hill. On summer evenings he likes to watch the con trails of high-flying aircraft while sitting in the garden. Sometimes, in order to identify the aircraft and their destination, together with family members we get this readily available data from www.flightradar24.com website in a matter of seconds.
We tracked Yanukovych's air liner as it fled from Kyiv in February...[he was not on board]
A 10-year old armed with a simple compass can can use it, but the morons in Snizhne who killed 300 innocents were not capable...
Some pompous commentators who should know better claim: "The downing of flight MH17 was clearly an accident. " ..shame on them.
p.s. Is the the delay by AP in posting of this story due them submitting all their information to appropriate aviation investigative bodies, and agreeing to 'sit tight for one week' before publishing?
Friday, July 25, 2014
Russia ramps up war against Ukraine
The US State Department today said:
".. the Russians intend to deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers to the separatist forces in Ukraine, and have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military positions,"
There are some reports that a latest generation 'Tornado' Multiple Rocket Launcher has crossed into Ukraine from Russia already.
This is a fearsome weapon: "It is equipped with a single container with six launcher tubes for 300-mm rockets, which can fire all current Smerch rockets, including HE-FRAG, incendiary, thermobaric, cluster with anti-personnel or anti-tank mines. Cluster rounds may also carry self-targeting anti-tank munitions. The 800 kg standard rocket has a maximum range of 90 km. A range and direction correction system provides better accuracy compared to its predecessors.
The 9A52-4 can launch rockets singularly, by a partial ripple or by a full salvo, which can cover an area of 32 hectares. A full salvo can be fired with 20 seconds. The 9A52-4 launching vehicle can be reloaded within 8 minutes. Launcher pods designed for use with 122-mm and 220-mm rockets.
The weapons system is equipped with an automated laying and fire control system, along with an autonomous satellite navigation and positioning system."
[Source]
'Grad' MRL's are now regularly being employed by separatists, [e.g. as videoed by a passer by here]. There have been reports in the media of 'Grad' and other weapons systems being deployed from inside Russia against Ukrainian forces for several days now.
Despite this, today Ukraine's armed forces gained control of the strategically important town of Lysychansk. Relieved residents hope 'the nightmare will soon end'.
".. the Russians intend to deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers to the separatist forces in Ukraine, and have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military positions,"
There are some reports that a latest generation 'Tornado' Multiple Rocket Launcher has crossed into Ukraine from Russia already.
This is a fearsome weapon: "It is equipped with a single container with six launcher tubes for 300-mm rockets, which can fire all current Smerch rockets, including HE-FRAG, incendiary, thermobaric, cluster with anti-personnel or anti-tank mines. Cluster rounds may also carry self-targeting anti-tank munitions. The 800 kg standard rocket has a maximum range of 90 km. A range and direction correction system provides better accuracy compared to its predecessors.
The 9A52-4 can launch rockets singularly, by a partial ripple or by a full salvo, which can cover an area of 32 hectares. A full salvo can be fired with 20 seconds. The 9A52-4 launching vehicle can be reloaded within 8 minutes. Launcher pods designed for use with 122-mm and 220-mm rockets.
The weapons system is equipped with an automated laying and fire control system, along with an autonomous satellite navigation and positioning system."
[Source]
'Grad' MRL's are now regularly being employed by separatists, [e.g. as videoed by a passer by here]. There have been reports in the media of 'Grad' and other weapons systems being deployed from inside Russia against Ukrainian forces for several days now.
Despite this, today Ukraine's armed forces gained control of the strategically important town of Lysychansk. Relieved residents hope 'the nightmare will soon end'.
Monday, July 21, 2014
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Lukyanchenko hounded out of Donetsk
Yesterday, long-serving mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko, who figured in my previous blog, released a video explaining why he has now been driven out of the city. Here is a portion
"Three days ago I, as mayor [of Donetsk], was given an ultimatum. It was demanded of me not to engage in providing for the welbeing of citizens' life, but to provide the military needs of the Donetsk People's Republic, at the expense of [the city's] residents.
All this time I have strove to establish a dialogue for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but it was directly declared to me that the DNP military is not interested in peace initiatives.
I do not accept this ultimatum. Last week I met with the President of Ukraine twice. I discussed a whole number of important issues concerning the welbeing of the city. I remain a supporter of the peace talks, because I understand what war means for a city of one million residents.
Unfortunately, my position does not allow me to remain in Donetsk, because if I do, there is a possibility of my physical elimination. I am in Kyiv and intend to defend the interests of my native city to change the situation, from here. I will return to the territory of Donetsk at the first opportunity.
I sincerely regret that today I can not be in the city and hope for a speedy resolution to this terrible conflict."
Lukyanchenko has always been very popular in his home town - known for getting things done. His decision to leave will be cause of much regret amongst Donetsk residents.
The DNR leadership, until they seized power, where totally unknown in eastern Ukraine. They have virtually no grass roots links there at all. They are stealing money, payrolls, automobiles, etc. from locals, turfing them out of their homes. Support for them is evaporating. The forced flight of Lukyanchenko and many other fearful Donetsk citizens will only speed up this process.
p.s. Russia was supposed to:
"present the best products of its aircraft and rocket and space industries at the Farnborough International Airshow 2014, which begins in the London suburb of Farnborough on Monday and will last through July 20.
"This year the Russian exposition occupies 1,738 square meters. Seventy-four organizations will deploy their stands, and 16 of them, including seven participants in military-technological cooperation, will demonstrate military hardware: OJSC Rosoboronexport, OJSC Sukhoi Company, OJSC Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, OJSC Ilyushin, OJSC Oboronprom, FSUE Gas Turbine Research and Production Center Salut and OJSC Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant (UOMZ),"
But a couple of days ago 'representatives from Russia were not given visas to enable them to travel to this year’s Airshow because of the "Russian government’s actions in the Ukraine"
This is exactly to response European countries should be should be giving.
"Three days ago I, as mayor [of Donetsk], was given an ultimatum. It was demanded of me not to engage in providing for the welbeing of citizens' life, but to provide the military needs of the Donetsk People's Republic, at the expense of [the city's] residents.
All this time I have strove to establish a dialogue for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but it was directly declared to me that the DNP military is not interested in peace initiatives.
I do not accept this ultimatum. Last week I met with the President of Ukraine twice. I discussed a whole number of important issues concerning the welbeing of the city. I remain a supporter of the peace talks, because I understand what war means for a city of one million residents.
Unfortunately, my position does not allow me to remain in Donetsk, because if I do, there is a possibility of my physical elimination. I am in Kyiv and intend to defend the interests of my native city to change the situation, from here. I will return to the territory of Donetsk at the first opportunity.
I sincerely regret that today I can not be in the city and hope for a speedy resolution to this terrible conflict."
Lukyanchenko has always been very popular in his home town - known for getting things done. His decision to leave will be cause of much regret amongst Donetsk residents.
The DNR leadership, until they seized power, where totally unknown in eastern Ukraine. They have virtually no grass roots links there at all. They are stealing money, payrolls, automobiles, etc. from locals, turfing them out of their homes. Support for them is evaporating. The forced flight of Lukyanchenko and many other fearful Donetsk citizens will only speed up this process.
p.s. Russia was supposed to:
"present the best products of its aircraft and rocket and space industries at the Farnborough International Airshow 2014, which begins in the London suburb of Farnborough on Monday and will last through July 20.
"This year the Russian exposition occupies 1,738 square meters. Seventy-four organizations will deploy their stands, and 16 of them, including seven participants in military-technological cooperation, will demonstrate military hardware: OJSC Rosoboronexport, OJSC Sukhoi Company, OJSC Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, OJSC Ilyushin, OJSC Oboronprom, FSUE Gas Turbine Research and Production Center Salut and OJSC Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant (UOMZ),"
But a couple of days ago 'representatives from Russia were not given visas to enable them to travel to this year’s Airshow because of the "Russian government’s actions in the Ukraine"
This is exactly to response European countries should be should be giving.
Friday, July 11, 2014
DNP leadership arrogance to local officials
Mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko is a well-respected servant of the city's residents. He has been elected by them to his position as head of the city council on no less than three occasions. He previously worked for decades in the city's technical services department and knows Donetsk inside out.
During the current troubles Lukyanchenko and his staff have done their utmost to make life for Donetsk residents as normal as possible and they have kept the city's essential services running in the most trying of circumstances.
Now the so-called Donesk People's Republic leaders, Russian citizens Igor Strelkov and Alexander Borodai, are demanding Mayor Lukyanchenko declare on what side he is on - on the side of the DPR, or the side of the government of Ukraine.
The DNP leadership say if he is not prepared to do this, he will be replaced. They also graciously promised, "not to shoot Lukyanchenko if he refuses to co-operate".
Such statements will cause local support for the DPR to wither away even more quicky. Locals know who truly has their interests at heart.
During the current troubles Lukyanchenko and his staff have done their utmost to make life for Donetsk residents as normal as possible and they have kept the city's essential services running in the most trying of circumstances.
Now the so-called Donesk People's Republic leaders, Russian citizens Igor Strelkov and Alexander Borodai, are demanding Mayor Lukyanchenko declare on what side he is on - on the side of the DPR, or the side of the government of Ukraine.
The DNP leadership say if he is not prepared to do this, he will be replaced. They also graciously promised, "not to shoot Lukyanchenko if he refuses to co-operate".
Such statements will cause local support for the DPR to wither away even more quicky. Locals know who truly has their interests at heart.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Akhmetov gets a visit from unwanted guests
On Tuesday, several journalists entered the grounds of Rinat Akhmetov's mansion in Kyiv's elite Koncha Zaspa district. Security men allowed them access following a demonstation by Maidan activists held at the mansion's huge ornamental gates. [Eight minute video of what occurred here]
A dozen or more Maidan activists managed to climb over the fence. They had been demanding Akmetov make clear who he supports - the Ukrainian state...or the Donetsk People's Republic separatists..Two of the activists took a dip in Akhmetov's swimming pool.
Several weeks ago a demonstation took place outside Akhmetov's mansion in Donetsk. Demonstrators were a whisker away from inviting themselves in...Akhmetov left him the city for reasons of personal safety.
Now this in Kyiv - demonstrators metaphorically 'peeing in his swimming pool'
[Photos here]
Akhmetov's security cannot be guaranteed in western countries. He could be linked to the alleged crimes of his old pal, former presidentViktor Yanukovych, that are currently under international investigation.
Akhmetov's power is haemorrhaging and room for manoeuvre dwindling.
A dozen or more Maidan activists managed to climb over the fence. They had been demanding Akmetov make clear who he supports - the Ukrainian state...or the Donetsk People's Republic separatists..Two of the activists took a dip in Akhmetov's swimming pool.
Several weeks ago a demonstation took place outside Akhmetov's mansion in Donetsk. Demonstrators were a whisker away from inviting themselves in...Akhmetov left him the city for reasons of personal safety.
Now this in Kyiv - demonstrators metaphorically 'peeing in his swimming pool'
[Photos here]
Akhmetov's security cannot be guaranteed in western countries. He could be linked to the alleged crimes of his old pal, former presidentViktor Yanukovych, that are currently under international investigation.
Akhmetov's power is haemorrhaging and room for manoeuvre dwindling.
Wednesday, July 02, 2014
Russia blackmailing Berlin?
According to Ostro.org, seasoned and well-respected German Green Party Bundestag deputy, Marieluise Beck, posts the following on her Facebook page:
"Why is the EU so hesitant about sanctions? In Berlin political circles well-informed sources say that highly placed Russian diplomats openly threatened that Russia will feel completely free to march straight into Ukraine in the event of serious sanctions ... If this is true, it explains so much, "
It also explains the Russian military 'hokey-cokey' on Ukraine's borders...and would be a natural corollary to Putin's delusions about Ukraine.
What they are saying to the Germans is if you apply painful sanctions you will be co-responsible for the destruction and killings that will occur in the event of invasion..
"Why is the EU so hesitant about sanctions? In Berlin political circles well-informed sources say that highly placed Russian diplomats openly threatened that Russia will feel completely free to march straight into Ukraine in the event of serious sanctions ... If this is true, it explains so much, "
It also explains the Russian military 'hokey-cokey' on Ukraine's borders...and would be a natural corollary to Putin's delusions about Ukraine.
What they are saying to the Germans is if you apply painful sanctions you will be co-responsible for the destruction and killings that will occur in the event of invasion..
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Odesa knows what it wants
Okean Elzy are probably the most successful and popular rock band in Ukraine's history. They was formed in 1994 in Lviv. The band's vocalist and frontman is Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.
Okean Elzy are also popular in most CIS countries
The band firmly supported and performed at the Euromaidan-protests in Kyiv last winter.
On June 22, the day after Ukraine declared a ceasefire in the east of the country, 70,000 people enjoyed a 20th anniversary concert in Kyiv staged by the band. The frontman’s message to the audience was that a united Ukraine can achieve anything. [Reuters video, with brief Vakarchuk interview here]
Yesterday, the band performed in Odesa in front of around 50,000 fans - the biggest concert ever seen in the city.
The stadium was filled with yellow and blue flags and lights - even more than were seen during the Euromaidan, according to people shouting in the fan zone..
[Photos and brief video at this link]
Anyone who has visited the city will know it is almost entirely Russophone...
p.s. ...compare with this:
In Kharkiv around 100 generally older folks with red flags protested against the conducting of anti-terrorist actions this Sunday..
In April many if not most residents in the Donbas were in favour of the creation of a possible Donetsk People's Republic. Since then many local businessmen, both large and small in the Donbas region have been systematically subjected to extortion and have frequently been held hostage by Donetsk People's Republic mobsters..According to this report from Censor.net.ua, now all they want is for the Ukrainian army to come as quickly as possible and end the disorder..
Okean Elzy are also popular in most CIS countries
The band firmly supported and performed at the Euromaidan-protests in Kyiv last winter.
On June 22, the day after Ukraine declared a ceasefire in the east of the country, 70,000 people enjoyed a 20th anniversary concert in Kyiv staged by the band. The frontman’s message to the audience was that a united Ukraine can achieve anything. [Reuters video, with brief Vakarchuk interview here]
Yesterday, the band performed in Odesa in front of around 50,000 fans - the biggest concert ever seen in the city.
The stadium was filled with yellow and blue flags and lights - even more than were seen during the Euromaidan, according to people shouting in the fan zone..
[Photos and brief video at this link]
Anyone who has visited the city will know it is almost entirely Russophone...
p.s. ...compare with this:
In Kharkiv around 100 generally older folks with red flags protested against the conducting of anti-terrorist actions this Sunday..
In April many if not most residents in the Donbas were in favour of the creation of a possible Donetsk People's Republic. Since then many local businessmen, both large and small in the Donbas region have been systematically subjected to extortion and have frequently been held hostage by Donetsk People's Republic mobsters..According to this report from Censor.net.ua, now all they want is for the Ukrainian army to come as quickly as possible and end the disorder..
Saturday, June 28, 2014
A must-see video - Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
Absolutely essential viewing - this most engrossing video of Chatham House, London event which took place 25 Jun 2014:
Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
Participants:
CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MEMBER OF CANADIAN PARLIAMENT
MICHAEL MCFAUL, US AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA (2012-14)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
DMITRI TRENIN, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTER
CHAIR: ROGER COHEN, COLUMNIST, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?
Participants:
CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MEMBER OF CANADIAN PARLIAMENT
MICHAEL MCFAUL, US AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA (2012-14)
JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
DMITRI TRENIN, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTER
CHAIR: ROGER COHEN, COLUMNIST, THE NEW YORK TIMES
How events will pan out in Eastern Ukraine
Respected commentator and journalist, Vadym Densysenko, explains the dangers for Ukraine in continuing the current ceasefire.
Here is a summary of the points he makes:
President Poroshenko, following the signing of the Association Agreement document with the EU, is under great pressure both from the EU and from Russia, to 'freeze' the conflict and maintain the current ceasefire.
Russia needs time to create state-like institutions, banking, law enforcement agencies, civil servants structures etc. for its Novorossiya project for Eastern Ukraine. Denysenko says that Oleh Tsaryov [photo below] has now been earmarked to lead this project. Unlike the current leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leader Aleksander Boroday, at least Tsaryov can claim to be Ukrainian. He will be totally loyal to the Russian leadership, and will scrupulously follow their instructions.
Introduction of Russian/EU monitors will help freeze the conflict further. Opinion in the rest of Ukraine to jettison Donbas region could grow, particularly if 'stimulated' by organised anti-war protests etc. Deterioration in the country's economy could increase these sentiments further.
But, Denisenko concludes, right now, Putin need a period of 'peace' to help legitimise Tsaryov, and permit roots of the Novorossiya project to take hold.
Your blogger wonders what do the elites, the businessmen and local officials, that have run Donbas with such a firm grip for almost two decades think about all of this? How did they permit everything to slip out out hand? They surely will lose out in any new set-up. Their cosy and corrupt money-making schemes will surely be seriously messed up. And as for being bossed about by Tsaryov, aka 'Neanderthal' by his parliamentary colleagues, hmmm
And the residents in the two easternmost Ukrainian oblasts? What kind of future can they expect in a limbo 'Transdnistria- type' state? Pretty bleak I would guess.
p.s Good graphic representation of who's who in the DPR here
Here is a summary of the points he makes:
President Poroshenko, following the signing of the Association Agreement document with the EU, is under great pressure both from the EU and from Russia, to 'freeze' the conflict and maintain the current ceasefire.
Russia needs time to create state-like institutions, banking, law enforcement agencies, civil servants structures etc. for its Novorossiya project for Eastern Ukraine. Denysenko says that Oleh Tsaryov [photo below] has now been earmarked to lead this project. Unlike the current leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leader Aleksander Boroday, at least Tsaryov can claim to be Ukrainian. He will be totally loyal to the Russian leadership, and will scrupulously follow their instructions.
Introduction of Russian/EU monitors will help freeze the conflict further. Opinion in the rest of Ukraine to jettison Donbas region could grow, particularly if 'stimulated' by organised anti-war protests etc. Deterioration in the country's economy could increase these sentiments further.
But, Denisenko concludes, right now, Putin need a period of 'peace' to help legitimise Tsaryov, and permit roots of the Novorossiya project to take hold.
Your blogger wonders what do the elites, the businessmen and local officials, that have run Donbas with such a firm grip for almost two decades think about all of this? How did they permit everything to slip out out hand? They surely will lose out in any new set-up. Their cosy and corrupt money-making schemes will surely be seriously messed up. And as for being bossed about by Tsaryov, aka 'Neanderthal' by his parliamentary colleagues, hmmm
And the residents in the two easternmost Ukrainian oblasts? What kind of future can they expect in a limbo 'Transdnistria- type' state? Pretty bleak I would guess.
p.s Good graphic representation of who's who in the DPR here
Sunday, June 22, 2014
DPR has little support in Donetsk
A good indicator of the degree of support for the Donetsk People's Republic was provided by the attendance in the central square of Donetsk city today at an anti-Ukrainian meeting addressed by the leaders of the DPR.
More photos here
The fact that political, business and industrial elites of Donbas permitted such a tiny group of rabble that is the DNP to take over their oblast so easily leads to only one conclusion - they were acting at the behest of these elite groups.
There are many eyewitness reports of law enforcement officials co-operating or turning turning a blind eye to what was going on.
This photograph was taken today
Three policemen stand idly by as an armed man walks/manhandles a handcuffed prisoner in a most professional manner to who knows where [to be held hostage for ransom?]. The armed man has no markings on his military fatigues.
The DNP is a stillborn project. Its backers are now only concerned with detachment from this fiasco...hence the pathetic turn-out. The violence from separatists is the work of the Kremlin.
More photos here
The fact that political, business and industrial elites of Donbas permitted such a tiny group of rabble that is the DNP to take over their oblast so easily leads to only one conclusion - they were acting at the behest of these elite groups.
There are many eyewitness reports of law enforcement officials co-operating or turning turning a blind eye to what was going on.
This photograph was taken today
The DNP is a stillborn project. Its backers are now only concerned with detachment from this fiasco...hence the pathetic turn-out. The violence from separatists is the work of the Kremlin.
Friday, June 20, 2014
Support for DPR evaporating
Yevgen Іkhelzon, in his Ukr Pravda blog, describes the Donetsk People's Republic as a "stillborn revolution"
Here are bits of what he has to say:
"When you walk along the streets of Donetsk, the impression is that everything that is happening there is the handiwork of the local "elites" i.e. the attempt to declare independence was organized by leaders of the Party of Regions who were in close contact with the "family" of former President Yanukovych.
In Donetsk itself, things are quiet. Only one battle has taken place there - at the airport. At the same time, in the area around Slovyansk serious clashes continue, but in Donetsk people say little about this, and are not particularly keen on sending help. The so-called Donetsk People's Republic is full of oddities and contradictions which are difficult to understand even for the smarter locals. Probably, I do not understand much either, but here are my views:
DPR.
Almost all logically thinking locals believe that senior Party of Regions figures such as Nikolai Levchenko, [linked to Rinat Akhmetov] stood at the origins of the DPR. There is even a persistent rumours that the DPR governor Pavel Gubarev is a relative Levchenko's.
However, after its birth, something went badly wrong and the situation got out of control for several reasons - money pumped in by Aleksander Yanukovych [to pay troublemakers and create havoc], rapid involvement of Russian officials such as Glazyev and Zhirinovsky; and then the Communists and Russian nationalists piled in. This explosive combination, under the banner of DPR, tried to seize power in the Donbas in a re-run of the "Crimean scenario" - entering local authority buildings, taking control of the region, staging a 'referendum', inviting Russian troops and waiting to take up positions in a new region of Russia.
But the situation slipped out of control of local "feudal lords" and industrial chiefs. It has now become clear that Russia will not invade, and the DPR is a fictitious organisation that does not actually control anything. Influence and power still belong to the Akhmetov's people. Local say that the so-called "Vostok" battalion has good relations with Akhmetov, and the mayor Luk'yanchenko is protected by "Oplot."
Sentiment among locals is mixed but now that support for the DPR is slipping, citizens do not understand why DPR is needed at all, when the mayor's office still exists. All that remains of the DPR are patrols, semi-deserted road checkpoints and several hundred militants who sit in their bases and occasionally occupy state institution buildings, incurring the wrath of the mayor Luk'yanchenko.
It is obvious that the flow of money from Russia has dried up. No-one attends rallies for free, and the idea of regional independence is not as tempting as the idea of raised wages and pensions which were to be provided by Vladimir Putin.
Current state of Donbas region.
In Donetsk many cafes and businesses are closed; in the evening the city is completely empty and there are far fewer people that usual on the streets during the day. Tens of thousands of people have fled the city, the vast majority did so not because of the ATO, but for the following reasons: intolerable atmosphere in the city, the presence of armed men from which good would come; so better to wait until things calm down. There have never been so many 'For Rent' signs on business premises in Donetsk.
I must say that the atmosphere is really quiet, but an air of tension exists. The enthusiasm for the DPR is declining rapidly in the city, I did not notice any St. George ribbons or Russian flags on cars; DPR flags hang only on admin buildings.
On public transport, people do not talk about politics, not knowing who shares their own thoughts. In private conversations people criticize the DPR and want everything return back to as it was (there are different opinions, but all are inclined to believe that Kyiv should negotiate and not fight for this to happen).
Bifurcated authority
Essentially, almost all Ukrainian institutions are fully functioning and behave just as before the DPR took over. Pensions and social benefits are being paid, and until recently, there has been no interference with the National Bank of Ukraine. Donetsk city council is fully operational, the police patrol the streets together with the DPR soldiers in camouflage and Cossacks, and all are unarmed.
Patrols are rare, and are not especially hunting for anyone, police in Ukrainian police uniform attend call-outs and perform their duties normally.
It should be noted almost the entire staff of the police and the Security Services of Donetsk did not interfere, but even assisted in the seizure of buildings from which large numbers of weapons were plundered for distribution to the separatist militia. This could not have happened without clear orders of local elites. Similarly, the "protesters" were permitted to enter the Oblast Administration building where they remain until now. Police are still working from their usual buildings, and the SBU have reverted to a "home working" mode. Just as with most Donetsk residents, enthusiasm for the DPR is falling in police ranks, providing a hope that in the future Donetsk may return back to the Ukrainian fold.
Prospects for the Anti Terrorist Operation.
Ukrainian patriots living in Donetsk complain that Ukrainian law enforcers did not conduct any reconnaissance before starting any military action in the city. E.g. when the battle for the airport took place, the Ukrainian army could have easily taken the Oblast Admin building too.
Any large-scale combat operations with aircraft and widespread destruction in Donetsk will be highly counterproductive - support for the DPR will only grow as a result. Pinpoint spetsnaz operations with the support of local people can be much more efficient. Even more effective can be negotiations with the real masters of the city where hundreds of thousands of supporters of a unified Ukraine currently live.
Prospects for the DPR
The DPR cannot exist without two things - Russian propaganda and a Russian invasion. Russian television, which today is watched by almost all the inhabitants of Donetsk, creates a virtual reality.
The possibility of a Russian invasion still exists - it could happen if Glazyev, Dugin and Zhirinovsky persuade Putin to do it.
Without these two factors Donetsk Republic is doomed and will soon cease to exist. TV and clumsy actions of the troops executing the ATO can prolong the agony, and a possible Russian invasion would dramatically complicate the situation in Ukraine."
------------------------------------------------------
Several other local bloggers and commentators paint a similar picture.
Here are bits of what he has to say:
"When you walk along the streets of Donetsk, the impression is that everything that is happening there is the handiwork of the local "elites" i.e. the attempt to declare independence was organized by leaders of the Party of Regions who were in close contact with the "family" of former President Yanukovych.
In Donetsk itself, things are quiet. Only one battle has taken place there - at the airport. At the same time, in the area around Slovyansk serious clashes continue, but in Donetsk people say little about this, and are not particularly keen on sending help. The so-called Donetsk People's Republic is full of oddities and contradictions which are difficult to understand even for the smarter locals. Probably, I do not understand much either, but here are my views:
DPR.
Almost all logically thinking locals believe that senior Party of Regions figures such as Nikolai Levchenko, [linked to Rinat Akhmetov] stood at the origins of the DPR. There is even a persistent rumours that the DPR governor Pavel Gubarev is a relative Levchenko's.
However, after its birth, something went badly wrong and the situation got out of control for several reasons - money pumped in by Aleksander Yanukovych [to pay troublemakers and create havoc], rapid involvement of Russian officials such as Glazyev and Zhirinovsky; and then the Communists and Russian nationalists piled in. This explosive combination, under the banner of DPR, tried to seize power in the Donbas in a re-run of the "Crimean scenario" - entering local authority buildings, taking control of the region, staging a 'referendum', inviting Russian troops and waiting to take up positions in a new region of Russia.
But the situation slipped out of control of local "feudal lords" and industrial chiefs. It has now become clear that Russia will not invade, and the DPR is a fictitious organisation that does not actually control anything. Influence and power still belong to the Akhmetov's people. Local say that the so-called "Vostok" battalion has good relations with Akhmetov, and the mayor Luk'yanchenko is protected by "Oplot."
Sentiment among locals is mixed but now that support for the DPR is slipping, citizens do not understand why DPR is needed at all, when the mayor's office still exists. All that remains of the DPR are patrols, semi-deserted road checkpoints and several hundred militants who sit in their bases and occasionally occupy state institution buildings, incurring the wrath of the mayor Luk'yanchenko.
It is obvious that the flow of money from Russia has dried up. No-one attends rallies for free, and the idea of regional independence is not as tempting as the idea of raised wages and pensions which were to be provided by Vladimir Putin.
Current state of Donbas region.
In Donetsk many cafes and businesses are closed; in the evening the city is completely empty and there are far fewer people that usual on the streets during the day. Tens of thousands of people have fled the city, the vast majority did so not because of the ATO, but for the following reasons: intolerable atmosphere in the city, the presence of armed men from which good would come; so better to wait until things calm down. There have never been so many 'For Rent' signs on business premises in Donetsk.
I must say that the atmosphere is really quiet, but an air of tension exists. The enthusiasm for the DPR is declining rapidly in the city, I did not notice any St. George ribbons or Russian flags on cars; DPR flags hang only on admin buildings.
On public transport, people do not talk about politics, not knowing who shares their own thoughts. In private conversations people criticize the DPR and want everything return back to as it was (there are different opinions, but all are inclined to believe that Kyiv should negotiate and not fight for this to happen).
Bifurcated authority
Essentially, almost all Ukrainian institutions are fully functioning and behave just as before the DPR took over. Pensions and social benefits are being paid, and until recently, there has been no interference with the National Bank of Ukraine. Donetsk city council is fully operational, the police patrol the streets together with the DPR soldiers in camouflage and Cossacks, and all are unarmed.
Patrols are rare, and are not especially hunting for anyone, police in Ukrainian police uniform attend call-outs and perform their duties normally.
It should be noted almost the entire staff of the police and the Security Services of Donetsk did not interfere, but even assisted in the seizure of buildings from which large numbers of weapons were plundered for distribution to the separatist militia. This could not have happened without clear orders of local elites. Similarly, the "protesters" were permitted to enter the Oblast Administration building where they remain until now. Police are still working from their usual buildings, and the SBU have reverted to a "home working" mode. Just as with most Donetsk residents, enthusiasm for the DPR is falling in police ranks, providing a hope that in the future Donetsk may return back to the Ukrainian fold.
Prospects for the Anti Terrorist Operation.
Ukrainian patriots living in Donetsk complain that Ukrainian law enforcers did not conduct any reconnaissance before starting any military action in the city. E.g. when the battle for the airport took place, the Ukrainian army could have easily taken the Oblast Admin building too.
Any large-scale combat operations with aircraft and widespread destruction in Donetsk will be highly counterproductive - support for the DPR will only grow as a result. Pinpoint spetsnaz operations with the support of local people can be much more efficient. Even more effective can be negotiations with the real masters of the city where hundreds of thousands of supporters of a unified Ukraine currently live.
Prospects for the DPR
The DPR cannot exist without two things - Russian propaganda and a Russian invasion. Russian television, which today is watched by almost all the inhabitants of Donetsk, creates a virtual reality.
The possibility of a Russian invasion still exists - it could happen if Glazyev, Dugin and Zhirinovsky persuade Putin to do it.
Without these two factors Donetsk Republic is doomed and will soon cease to exist. TV and clumsy actions of the troops executing the ATO can prolong the agony, and a possible Russian invasion would dramatically complicate the situation in Ukraine."
------------------------------------------------------
Several other local bloggers and commentators paint a similar picture.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Appeal from Mayor of Donetsk
One person who has conducted himself honourably throughout the hybrid war currently taking place in in Eastern Ukraine, looking after the welfare of his city's citizens, is the popular, long-time Mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko.
Today he made the following statement:
"Today there are calls and appeals by many politician and deputies to declare martial law and to roll out full scale hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. I remind you that these two oblasts contain 42 cities, 36 districts and have a population of about 7 million inhabitants.
Until now, no one has explained why hundreds of armed militants can penetrate, virtually unchecked, into our country's territory or who is paying them. I am convinced that not one of these mercenaries is fighting out of idealism. No one is drawing any attention to these important questions. There are only accusations of separatism and complicity directed at the seven million inhabitants. [My highlight]
This is despite the fact that residents are already suffering from the armed conflicts and that they comprise no less 15% of the [country's total] population.
The life support structure of these cities and regions is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster. The introduction of martial law, in my opinion, will not improve the situation, but only make it worse. First, it is not clear what forces will be provided to maintain this state [of martial law] on the territory of all these cities and two oblasts. Secondly, with open borders, these measures are practically useless. Third, the military situation will lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of cities and lead to an uncontrolled flow of refugees.
I want to appeal to the President of our country, the Government and Parliament to start immediate full-scale talks at the highest level on the territory of our two oblasts to resolve the conflict with the involvement of our northern neighbour - Russia, and international organizations. With their intermediation it is essential to stop this fratricidal war, to prevent the deaths of civilians, children and the elderly. While there is at least one chance to stop the war, it should be used."
[Video here]
IMO It is vital that the properly elected ruling authorities in the two Easternmost oblasts be fully engaged in negotiations if there is to be any chance of the conflict being resolved. President Poroshenko must make this clear right away.
Today he made the following statement:
"Today there are calls and appeals by many politician and deputies to declare martial law and to roll out full scale hostilities in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. I remind you that these two oblasts contain 42 cities, 36 districts and have a population of about 7 million inhabitants.
Until now, no one has explained why hundreds of armed militants can penetrate, virtually unchecked, into our country's territory or who is paying them. I am convinced that not one of these mercenaries is fighting out of idealism. No one is drawing any attention to these important questions. There are only accusations of separatism and complicity directed at the seven million inhabitants. [My highlight]
This is despite the fact that residents are already suffering from the armed conflicts and that they comprise no less 15% of the [country's total] population.
The life support structure of these cities and regions is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster. The introduction of martial law, in my opinion, will not improve the situation, but only make it worse. First, it is not clear what forces will be provided to maintain this state [of martial law] on the territory of all these cities and two oblasts. Secondly, with open borders, these measures are practically useless. Third, the military situation will lead to the destruction of the infrastructure of cities and lead to an uncontrolled flow of refugees.
I want to appeal to the President of our country, the Government and Parliament to start immediate full-scale talks at the highest level on the territory of our two oblasts to resolve the conflict with the involvement of our northern neighbour - Russia, and international organizations. With their intermediation it is essential to stop this fratricidal war, to prevent the deaths of civilians, children and the elderly. While there is at least one chance to stop the war, it should be used."
[Video here]
IMO It is vital that the properly elected ruling authorities in the two Easternmost oblasts be fully engaged in negotiations if there is to be any chance of the conflict being resolved. President Poroshenko must make this clear right away.
Tuesday, June 10, 2014
Two 'must see' videos
If you have a spare hour do watch this video of a recent Hromadske.tv/Atlantic Council discussion, entitled:
'From Revolution to Reform'
entirely in English, with British journalist David Patrikarakos, Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development PavloSheremeta, the impressive, passionate Hanna Hopko [more about this rising star here], and Adrian Karatnycky. [Actually starts about 5 minutes into the video]
Also this video, also all in English, from
Wroclaw Global Form 2014 - Plenary Panel 4 — Building a New Ukraine: A Pillar of European Security?
Panelists: Paula Dobriansky, former US Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs; Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy; Senator Ron Johnson, US Senate; Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Member of European Parliament; Ievgen Vorobiov, Analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs
Moderator: Matthew Kaminski, Member of Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal
p.s. I really liked this from John O'Sullivan in the 'Spectator'
'From Revolution to Reform'
entirely in English, with British journalist David Patrikarakos, Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development PavloSheremeta, the impressive, passionate Hanna Hopko [more about this rising star here], and Adrian Karatnycky. [Actually starts about 5 minutes into the video]
Also this video, also all in English, from
Wroclaw Global Form 2014 - Plenary Panel 4 — Building a New Ukraine: A Pillar of European Security?
Panelists: Paula Dobriansky, former US Undersecretary of State for Global Affairs; Carl Gershman, President, National Endowment for Democracy; Senator Ron Johnson, US Senate; Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Member of European Parliament; Ievgen Vorobiov, Analyst, Polish Institute of International Affairs
Moderator: Matthew Kaminski, Member of Editorial Board, The Wall Street Journal
p.s. I really liked this from John O'Sullivan in the 'Spectator'
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain – what Putin's really up to
Russia’s foreign policy has become a ‘Wizard of Oz’ mixture of fake grandiosity and real menace
Monday, June 09, 2014
ATO will continue
"...it's important to bear in mind when you talk about separatism in the east [of Ukraine], we're talking about activity in two eastern regions, out of six. And if you look at the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, which are predominantly Russian speaking -- that's nine regions. And in only two, and at that only parts of two, are the separatists pretty firmly in control. So that context has to be borne in mind.
The Russians' tactics are rapidly adjusting. When the Russians started this whole enterprise in eastern Ukraine, they expected that the citizen population living there would rise up in their support. And that has not happened. We had hundreds of thousands of people on the street in Kiev [referring to the original protests in December], you have not have that in Donetsk and Luhansk -- the fighters have been supported by at most crowds of hundreds, and at most a few thousands.
So they started changing tactics then. And I think the election itself has been a further blow to them.
Their preoccupation still is to get Western acquiescence in an overall deal that will federalize Ukraine in such a way that the regions it partially controls will not only have autonomy, but have veto power over the central government itself. That's what they mean by federalization..."
Will withdrawal of armed separatists/proxies help Putin achieve his goal? Most unlikely...For this reason Kyiv have no other choice but to continue their anti-terrrorist operation [ATO]
Many of the separatist gunmen are shameless looters and thieves. Locals are getting fed up with them already.
Thursday, June 05, 2014
Donetsk region on the verge of economic disaster
The catastrophic effect the current troubles in Ukraine's easternmost oblasts are having on the local economy are described in an interview in 'Segodnya' with Donetsk State University professor, Yuriy Makogon.
He explains the economy of Donetsk region is primarily export-oriented with about 70% of production going to markets outside Ukraine.
If the Donetsk People's Republic formally declares independence, two-thirds of its export markets could be lost.
Even now manufacture of engineering products has fell back by 40% and unemployment in the region over the last 4 months had doubled. Small and medium businesses have been particularly badly hit.
Makogon believes the region will lose about 30% of its gross domestic product this year.
Even in the event of a most optimistic scenario of speedy resolution to the current conflict it will be 2016 before industrial production climbs back to 2008 levels.
The economic outlook it truly bleak.
He explains the economy of Donetsk region is primarily export-oriented with about 70% of production going to markets outside Ukraine.
If the Donetsk People's Republic formally declares independence, two-thirds of its export markets could be lost.
Even now manufacture of engineering products has fell back by 40% and unemployment in the region over the last 4 months had doubled. Small and medium businesses have been particularly badly hit.
Makogon believes the region will lose about 30% of its gross domestic product this year.
Even in the event of a most optimistic scenario of speedy resolution to the current conflict it will be 2016 before industrial production climbs back to 2008 levels.
The economic outlook it truly bleak.
Saturday, May 31, 2014
What are Vostok Battalion doing in Donbas?
A totally plausible explanation why the Kremlin-controlled 'Vostok Battalion' has been active in Eastern Ukraine is provided by the excellent Mark Galeotti in his blog.
Some thought-provoking comments too..
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today also provide illuminating information in their article "Vostok Battalion, A Powerful New Player In Eastern Ukraine"
Galeotti concludes:
Moscow’s strategy of chaos has worked too well, eating away not just at the cohesion of the rump Ukrainian state but also the emergent East Ukrainians, too. There appears to be increasing evidence of disputes between militias, and between the relatively professional defectors from the Ukrainian security forces, the opportunist thugs, and the “war tourists” from Russia. [And local mafia gangs ..LEvko] Thus, Moscow’s hopes to be able to cut a deal with Kyiv–regardless of whether Poroshenko can and will offer the Kremlin what it wants–depends now on bringing order to chaos. The Russians wished for chaos; now they know why so many folk tales warn of being careful what one wishes for…
Some thought-provoking comments too..
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty today also provide illuminating information in their article "Vostok Battalion, A Powerful New Player In Eastern Ukraine"
Galeotti concludes:
Moscow’s strategy of chaos has worked too well, eating away not just at the cohesion of the rump Ukrainian state but also the emergent East Ukrainians, too. There appears to be increasing evidence of disputes between militias, and between the relatively professional defectors from the Ukrainian security forces, the opportunist thugs, and the “war tourists” from Russia. [And local mafia gangs ..LEvko] Thus, Moscow’s hopes to be able to cut a deal with Kyiv–regardless of whether Poroshenko can and will offer the Kremlin what it wants–depends now on bringing order to chaos. The Russians wished for chaos; now they know why so many folk tales warn of being careful what one wishes for…
Wednesday, May 21, 2014
Shakhtar Donetsk bus attacked
Shakhtar Donetsk team bus attacked [hijacked?] by team of Donetsk People's Republic gun men. Video here
This is a big deal...a massive challenge to the king of Donbas...to Shaktar's massive base of supporters...How many more of them will now turn out to vote in Sunday's presidential election as a result?
Dare I say, a massive own-goal by the separatists?
p.s. You tocha ma car...I smasha you face...[!?]
This is a big deal...a massive challenge to the king of Donbas...to Shaktar's massive base of supporters...How many more of them will now turn out to vote in Sunday's presidential election as a result?
Dare I say, a massive own-goal by the separatists?
p.s. You tocha ma car...I smasha you face...[!?]
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