Eurasian Economic Union crumbling part 2

In a previous blog I wrote Putin's Customs Union currently comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, is crumbling.

On Friday, at a Russian youth camp Putin declared: "Russians and Ukrainians are 'practically one people". [Implying, I suppose, that invading Ukraine and trampling over its sovereign rights is not really invading a foreign country at all.]

If there were any truth in this 'practically one people' remark, it could arguably apply to an even greater extent to Russians and Belarusians, so Putin's loose talk will certainly will cause great apprehension and anger in Minsk.

Putin's declaration that same day the Kazakhstan 'was never a state', has already elicited a reaction from that country's president Nursultan Nazarbayev. He has broadly hinted Kazakhstan may even withdraw from the Eurasian Union

"If the rules laid down in the agreement are not carried out, Kazakhstan has the right to give up the Eurasian Economic Union. I have said it before and I say it again," he said.

According to him, Kazakhstan will not be a part of any organization that poses a threat to its independence.

"Our independence is our most precious treasure for which our grandfathers fought," said the president of Kazakhstan. "Firstly, we will never surrender our independence and, secondly, we will do everything to protect it," - said Nazarbayev.

Taras Berezovets in 'Novoye Vremya' explains why Kazakhstan may be being lined up for same treatment as Eastern Ukraine in Putin's strategy to rearrange Russia's borders. About one quarter of Kazakhstan's population is Russian - they live predominantly in regions adjacent Russia. These regions were bolted on in 1936 when Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic was formed from the Kazakh Autonomous Socialist Soviet Republic that had existed from 1925 until 1936. [Similaries with Crimea?]

More on Putin's crass remarks and their major significance here

Will Minsk 2014 be Munich 1938?

Former Putin adviser and now critic Andrei Illarionov, in his blog, quoting many sources, explains what, in his opinion, Putin and Merkel are proposing to Poroshenko and Ukraine in order to resolve the current war between these two countries.

The joint position of Putin and Merkel probably looks something like this:

- Bilateral unconditional cease-fire, which automatically means the legalisation of the separatists and their transformation into a legitimate party in endless negotiations.

- Determination of the internal political system of Ukraine not by Ukrainians, but by Russia and Germany, which will result in the eastern regions of Ukraine being granted special status, i.e. the creation of a "Ukrainian Transnistria" - Putin's beloved "Novorossiya."

- Denial of Ukraine not only from joining NATO, but also denial of any rapprochement with NATO, which would leave her under constant threat of attacks from its aggressive neighbour.

- Denial of Ukraine joining the European Union.

- Solution of gas issues to the satisfaction of Gazprom and Germany.

- For Ukraine's agreement on these points, "Novorossiya" in the Donbas will receive 500 million. Euros from the European Union (Germany) .

Ilaryonov compares the proposed deal to the 1938 Munich Agreement when Hitler was appeased and Czechoslovakia sold down the river. Poroshenko in Minsk will be in a similar position to Czech president of the day, Edvard Benes...

Putin's Customs Union is crumbling

President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Petro Poroshenko are attending a summit together with top European Union officials in Belarus's capital of Minsk on 26th August.  Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko and Kazkahstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev, whose countries belong to the Russia-led Customs Union, will also be present.

Vitaliy Portnikov makes the following observations in his article "Meeting in Minsk - an important stage toward divorce".

No major break-throughs can be expected. Even if Putin does give any undertakings, he will most likely break them. [There is a 'shed-load' of evidence that Russian regular armed forces have been active in eastern Ukraine. E.g. captured prisoners, captured equipment, scattered iron rations, military equipment packaging, intercepted sig-int.. video evidence, etc. etc. Despite this Russian spokesmen continue to deny any involvement of their troops. So why should Putin be trusted in the future?]

Portnikov says the summit is an opportunity for Lukashenko to at least partially rehabilitate himself with Europeans.

Lukashenko and Nazarbayev can also use next week's meeting to distance themselves a bit from Putin because the current Russia/Ukraine crisis is harming their countries' interests. They are fearful of an aggressive Putin and will try to delicately persuade him to come to his senses. They feel that by his unilateral declaration of sanctions against EU countries, Putin has 'dissed' Customs Union members Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Interesting podcast on what awaits Russia

Listen to this most engaging 'rferl' 50 minute podcast entitled:

 'Russia's Elusive New Normal',

Peter Pomerantsev and Ben Judah speculate on what lies in store for Putin and Russia following Putin's policy of 'perpetual mobilisation and agitation' - combining both 'patriotic cocaine' and fear - of which the current Russia/Ukraine crisis forms a central plank.

A wicked imported conflict [updated]

Check out this article from Spiegel [in English] about the surreal Russian - Ukrainian war:

"Could it be that the much discussed conflict between the Russians, the West and the eastern Ukrainians doesn't really exist?
The longer I am in this city [of Donetsk], the more I believe that much of what is said about the war in eastern Ukraine isn't true. Others have imported the conflict."

p.s. An absolute must-read: Andrey Kurkov's just-published 'Ukraine Diaries'...

"an invaluable guide to the present crisis"

Also "Strategic snapshots: The Ukraine Crisis and the International System"
Short 10 minute video from IISS here 

pps "Of all the horror I've seen this one


 

stands out. Girl in #Ukraine dress symbolizes "suicidal" country of mine." 03'40" http://youtu.be/TaXKGToxduE 

[source - Myroslava Petsa]

Collective madness against Ukraine [update 2]

If anyone has doubts as to Putin's intent to punish and subjugate Ukraine  then they should check out this video of a recent Biker show held in Sevastopol:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPnb97ybtiU

The crudest anti-Ukrainian propaganda concoction imaginable.. an Orwellian nightmare come true...on a par with Hitler's Germany..

What harm have Ukrainians done to Russians to deserve this?

p.s. the MC of the show, blurting the anti-Ukraine rhetoric, is Alexander Zaldostanov (a.k.a 'The Surgeon)', head of the Night Wolves. He allegedly has an enduring friendship with Putin himself, no less....

Update: This hate-show about #Ukraine was broadcast live on #Russia-2 TV channel. [source]

Here's a much shorter, 20-minute version..

Update 2: A great analysis of this diabolical show, and message from Putin,  from Buzzfeed here

Seeds of Merkel-led de-escalation plan?

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko had a phone conversation with Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel. [Saturday night]

The President drew attention to the efforts of the Ukrainian government to establish humanitarian assistance in the cities affected by the actions of terrorists. In particular, about sending to Lugansk professionals to repair electrical substations and restore water and food supply.

Petro Poroshenko informed that after the talks with President of the International Committee of the Red Cross Peter Maurer and other international partners, the possibility of sending a humanitarian mission to Lugansk is considered: "We are ready to receive humanitarian assistance, but it will be an international mission, without military escort, which goes only through border crossing points controlled by Ukrainian border guards and accompanied by Ukrainian military for the security of the mission", stressed the President.

Angela Merkel said that Germany, as well as its allies, holds a clear position that any humanitarian mission should be sent only in accordance with the international law, namely only through the channels of the UN or the Red Cross, and only in consultation with the Ukrainian side. "Our position is clear - any invasion, even if it is called humanitarian, is an invasion, and it is a red line that no state may cross", said the Chancellor of Germany.


Angela Merkel and Petro Poroshenko discussed the possibility of participation of Germany in international humanitarian mission. They also coordinated the next steps for de-escalation of the situation in the counter-terrorist operation.

Will Russia invade Ukraine?

If you have a spare half hour or so, listen to this excellent, frequently fascinating podcast from 'The Interpreter' 

"This week on The Interpreter podcast Boston College Professor Matt Sienkiewicz and The Interpreter’s managing editor James Miller are joined by The Interpreter’s editor-in-chief Michael Weiss to discuss the latest news from Ukraine.

The key questions on everyone’s mind — will Russia invade Ukraine? What is Russia’s end game here? Why is Putin doing what Putin is doing? And what does this all have to do with the shooting down of MH17?"

One of the speakers explains: To understand Russia...watch 'The Godfather' or series like 'The Sopranos'...

Yatsenyuk still favourite for PM

Interesting straw poll in big-selling 'Segodnya' website.

Who would you like to see in the prime minister's chair?

56% respondents proposed Yatsenyuk, 37% 'another candidate', and 7% said Groysman..

Over 18 thousand votes so far...

Кого бы вы хотели видеть в кресле премьер-министра Украины?

56%

Арсения Яценюка

37%

Другую кандидатуру

7%

Владимира Гройсмана

Всего проголосовало 18 134комментарии

Also this, just off the press [click to enlarge]

Klimkin explains Ukraine's position in Washington

Watch a rather dozy Foreign Minister of Ukraine speaking at today's Atlantic Council event
"Wartime Diplomacy, A Discussion with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin":

[Starts about 18 minutes in]

Klimkin claimed three years ago: "Tymoshenko's trial is not a witch-hunt"...Men such as him and his colleagues at Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, by strictly adhering to this view, by working to crush Yanukovych's greatest political opponent, caused the signing of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement to be delayed for many months...a calamity that has cost Ukraine very, very dear...

"When young democracy criminalizes political disputes, it won't long stay a democracy. See Russia, Yanik's Ukraine..."

p.s. Also this fascinating brief CNN interview with brilliant young journalist, Ben Judah about Putin's weird, saddo lifestyle..Can such an isololated man make rational decisions?

Beyond reasonable doubt

AP now provide the most detailed account to date of the shooting down  of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17, in this report.

Their journalists happened to be on the spot last week when it occurred.

It is almost certain the highly trained crew that operated the Buk M-1 missile system used in the fatal attack were from Russia. Their monumental error was the result of the crew having to depend on moronic separatists who identified their target.

The Buk crew and their separatist collaborators had been seen by AP journalists wearing distinctly differing camo outfits.

Your humble blogger lives on top of a hill. On summer evenings he likes to watch the con trails of high-flying aircraft while sitting in the garden. Sometimes, in order to identify the aircraft and their destination, together with family members we get this readily available data from www.flightradar24.com website in a matter of seconds.

We tracked Yanukovych's air liner as it fled from Kyiv in February...[he was not on board]

A 10-year old armed with a simple compass can can use it, but the morons in Snizhne who killed 300 innocents were not capable...

Some pompous commentators who should know better claim: "The downing of flight MH17 was clearly an accident. " ..shame on them.

p.s. Is the the delay by AP in posting of this story due them submitting all their information to appropriate aviation investigative bodies, and agreeing to 'sit tight for one week' before publishing?

Russia ramps up war against Ukraine

The US State Department today said:

".. the Russians intend to deliver heavier and more powerful multiple rocket launchers to the separatist forces in Ukraine, and have evidence that Russia is firing artillery from within Russia to attack Ukrainian military positions,"

There are some reports that a latest generation 'Tornado' Multiple Rocket Launcher has crossed into Ukraine from Russia already.

This is a fearsome weapon:  "It is equipped with a single container with six launcher tubes for 300-mm rockets, which can fire all current Smerch rockets, including HE-FRAG, incendiary, thermobaric, cluster with anti-personnel or anti-tank mines. Cluster rounds may also carry self-targeting anti-tank munitions. The 800 kg standard rocket has a maximum range of 90 km. A range and direction correction system provides better accuracy compared to its predecessors.

The 9A52-4 can launch rockets singularly, by a partial ripple or by a full salvo, which can cover an area of 32 hectares. A full salvo can be fired with 20 seconds. The 9A52-4 launching vehicle can be reloaded within 8 minutes. Launcher pods designed for use with 122-mm and 220-mm rockets.

The weapons system is equipped with an automated laying and fire control system, along with an autonomous satellite navigation and positioning system."
[Source]

'Grad' MRL's are now regularly being employed by separatists, [e.g. as videoed by a passer by here]. There have been reports in the media of 'Grad' and other weapons systems being deployed from inside Russia against Ukrainian forces for several days now.

Despite this, today Ukraine's armed forces gained control of the strategically important town of Lysychansk. Relieved residents hope 'the nightmare will soon end'.

Horrors yet to be revealed

After a truly diabolical last few days, an indication of possible fresh horrors yet to be revealed: From the superb "The Interpreter":

"Ukrainian Police Discover Mass Grave in Slavyansk

22:22 (GMT)

A mass grave has been found in the city of Slavyansk, recently re-taken by Ukrainian military as pro-Russian separatists fled, Information Resistance reported, citing the TV station TSN.ua.

"In Slavyansk, I met with the group for the Interior Ministry's criminal investigation department. They discovered a burial ground with civilians of Slavyansk who had been tortured to death. There were dozens of them. They were tortured, stabbed, and burned alive. Now there are witnesses to all of this," said Yury Lutsenko, advisor to the president on TSN.

In recent weeks there have been reports in Western media and by human rights watchdog Amnesty International of kidnappings, torture and disappearances in Slavyansk and other towns in southeastern Ukraine under control of pro-Russian separatists. Ukrainian forces have also been alleged to mistreat detainees."

Lukyanchenko hounded out of Donetsk

Yesterday, long-serving mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko, who figured in my previous blog, released a video explaining why he has now been driven out of the city. Here is a portion

"Three days ago I, as mayor [of Donetsk], was given an ultimatum. It was demanded of me not to engage in providing for the welbeing of citizens' life, but to provide the military needs of the Donetsk People's Republic, at the expense of [the city's] residents. 

All this time I have strove to establish a dialogue for a peaceful resolution of the conflict, but it was directly declared to me that the DNP military is not interested in peace initiatives.

I do not accept this ultimatum. Last week I met with the President of Ukraine twice. I discussed a whole number of important issues concerning the welbeing of the city. I remain a supporter of the peace talks, because I understand what war means for a city of one million residents.

Unfortunately, my position does not allow me to remain in Donetsk, because if I do, there is a possibility of my physical elimination. I am in Kyiv and intend  to defend the interests of my native city to change the situation, from here.  I will return to the territory of Donetsk at the first opportunity.

I sincerely regret that today I can not be in the city and hope for a speedy resolution to this terrible conflict."

Lukyanchenko has always been very popular in his home town - known for getting things done. His decision to leave will be cause of much regret amongst Donetsk residents.

The DNR leadership, until they seized power, where totally unknown in eastern Ukraine. They have virtually no grass roots links there at all. They are stealing money, payrolls, automobiles, etc. from locals, turfing them out of their homes. Support for them is evaporating. The forced flight of Lukyanchenko and many other fearful Donetsk citizens will only speed up this process.

p.s. Russia was supposed to:

"present the best products of its aircraft and rocket and space industries at the Farnborough International Airshow 2014, which begins in the London suburb of Farnborough on Monday and will last through July 20.

"This year the Russian exposition occupies 1,738 square meters. Seventy-four organizations will deploy their stands, and 16 of them, including seven participants in military-technological cooperation, will demonstrate military hardware: OJSC Rosoboronexport, OJSC Sukhoi Company, OJSC Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG, OJSC Ilyushin, OJSC Oboronprom, FSUE Gas Turbine Research and Production Center Salut and OJSC Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant (UOMZ),"

But a couple of days ago 'representatives from Russia were not given visas to enable them to travel to this year’s Airshow because of the "Russian government’s actions in the Ukraine"

This is exactly to response European countries should be should be giving.

DNP leadership arrogance to local officials

Mayor of Donetsk, Aleksander Lukyanchenko is a well-respected servant of the city's residents. He has been elected by them to his position as head of the city council on no less than three occasions.  He previously worked for decades in the city's technical services department and knows Donetsk inside out.

During the current troubles Lukyanchenko and his staff have done their utmost to make life for Donetsk residents as normal as possible and they have kept the city's essential services running in the most trying of circumstances.

Now the so-called Donesk People's Republic leaders, Russian citizens Igor Strelkov and Alexander Borodai, are demanding Mayor Lukyanchenko declare on what side he is on - on the side of the DPR, or the side of the government of Ukraine.

The DNP leadership say if he is not prepared to do this, he will be replaced. They also graciously promised,  "not to shoot Lukyanchenko if he refuses to co-operate".

Such statements will cause local support for the DPR to wither away even more quicky. Locals know who truly has their interests at heart.

Akhmetov gets a visit from unwanted guests

On Tuesday, several journalists entered the grounds of Rinat Akhmetov's mansion in Kyiv's elite Koncha Zaspa district. Security men allowed them access following a demonstation by Maidan activists held at the mansion's huge ornamental gates. [Eight minute video of what occurred here]

A dozen or more Maidan activists managed to climb over the fence. They had been demanding Akmetov make clear who he supports - the Ukrainian state...or the Donetsk People's Republic separatists..Two of the activists took a dip in Akhmetov's swimming pool.

Several weeks ago a demonstation took place outside Akhmetov's mansion in Donetsk. Demonstrators were a whisker away from inviting themselves in...Akhmetov left him the city for reasons of personal safety.

Now this in Kyiv - demonstrators metaphorically 'peeing in his swimming pool'

[Photos here]

Akhmetov's security cannot be guaranteed in western countries. He could be linked to the alleged crimes of his old pal, former presidentViktor Yanukovych, that are currently under international investigation.

Akhmetov's power is haemorrhaging and room for manoeuvre dwindling.

Russia blackmailing Berlin?

According to Ostro.org, seasoned and well-respected German Green Party Bundestag deputy, Marieluise Beck, posts the following on her Facebook page:

"Why is the EU so hesitant about sanctions? In Berlin political circles well-informed sources say that highly placed Russian diplomats openly threatened that Russia will feel completely free to march straight into Ukraine in the event of serious sanctions ... If this is true, it explains so much, "

It also explains the Russian military 'hokey-cokey' on Ukraine's borders...and would be a natural corollary to Putin's delusions about Ukraine.

What they are saying to the Germans is if you apply painful sanctions you will be co-responsible for the destruction and killings that will occur in the event of invasion..

Odesa knows what it wants

Okean Elzy are probably the most successful and popular rock band in Ukraine's history. They was formed in 1994 in Lviv. The band's vocalist and frontman is Svyatoslav Vakarchuk.

Okean Elzy are also popular in most CIS countries

The band firmly supported  and performed at the Euromaidan-protests in Kyiv last winter.

On June 22, the day after Ukraine declared a ceasefire in the east of the country, 70,000 people enjoyed a 20th anniversary concert in Kyiv staged by the band. The frontman’s message to the audience was that a united Ukraine can achieve anything. [Reuters video, with brief Vakarchuk interview here]

Yesterday, the band performed in Odesa in front of around 50,000 fans - the biggest concert ever seen in the city.

The stadium was filled with yellow and blue flags and lights - even more than were seen during the Euromaidan, according to people shouting in the fan zone..
[Photos and brief video at this link]

Anyone who has visited the city will know it is almost entirely Russophone...

p.s. ...compare with this:

In Kharkiv around 100 generally older folks with red flags  protested against the conducting of anti-terrorist actions this Sunday..

In April many if not most residents in the Donbas were in favour of the creation of a possible Donetsk People's Republic. Since then many local businessmen, both large and small in the Donbas region have been systematically subjected to extortion and have frequently been held hostage by Donetsk People's Republic mobsters..According to this report from Censor.net.ua, now all they want is for the Ukrainian army to come as quickly as possible and end the disorder..

A must-see video - Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Absolutely essential viewing - this most engrossing video of Chatham House, London event which took place 25 Jun 2014:

Russia, Ukraine and the West: Is Confrontation Inevitable?

Participants:
CHRYSTIA FREELAND, MEMBER OF CANADIAN PARLIAMENT

MICHAEL MCFAUL, US AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA (2012-14)

JOHN MEARSHEIMER, PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

DMITRI TRENIN, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE MOSCOW CENTER

CHAIR: ROGER COHEN, COLUMNIST, THE NEW YORK TIMES

How events will pan out in Eastern Ukraine

Respected commentator and journalist, Vadym Densysenko, explains the dangers for Ukraine in continuing the current ceasefire.

Here is a summary of the points he makes:

President Poroshenko, following the signing of the Association Agreement document with the EU, is under great pressure both from the EU and from Russia, to 'freeze' the conflict and maintain the current ceasefire.

Russia needs time to create state-like institutions, banking, law enforcement agencies, civil servants structures etc. for its Novorossiya project for Eastern Ukraine. Denysenko says that Oleh Tsaryov [photo below] has now been earmarked to lead this project. Unlike the current leader of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic leader Aleksander Boroday, at least Tsaryov can claim to be Ukrainian. He will be totally loyal to the Russian leadership, and will scrupulously follow their instructions.

Introduction of Russian/EU monitors will help freeze the conflict further. Opinion in the rest of Ukraine to jettison Donbas region could grow, particularly if 'stimulated' by organised anti-war protests etc. Deterioration in the country's economy could increase these sentiments further.

But, Denisenko concludes, right now, Putin need a period of 'peace' to help legitimise Tsaryov, and permit roots of the Novorossiya project to take hold.

Your blogger wonders what do the elites, the businessmen and local officials, that have run Donbas with such a firm grip for almost two decades think about all of this? How did they permit everything to slip out out hand? They surely will lose out in any new set-up. Their cosy and corrupt money-making  schemes will surely be seriously messed up. And as for being bossed about by Tsaryov, aka 'Neanderthal' by his parliamentary colleagues, hmmm

And the residents in the two easternmost Ukrainian oblasts? What kind of future can they expect in a limbo 'Transdnistria- type' state? Pretty bleak I would guess.

p.s Good graphic representation of who's who in the DPR here