Friday, June 08, 2007

Finita la comedia?

An article in today's 'Gazeta po Kiyevski' claims Yanukovych has finished with Moroz and PoR are preparing for the early elections.

Here are some paraphrased portions:

Yesterday's statements by the premier, and the actions of companions-in-arms in his party show that "Regionaly" will no longer fight with the President over the question of early elections, and are themselves beginning preparations for the election campaign.

After the president's 5th June ukaz ordering VR elections for 30th September, Viktor Yanukovych kept silent; and in the aftermath of hysterical proclamations from VR speaker Moroz and some PoR members, experts were forecasting another round of conflict over Yushchenko's ukaz, but no challenge was forthcoming.

Yesterday Yanukovich finally spoke out, supporting Yushchenko's ukaz. "It practically supports all the understandings, which were made in [our] declaration," he said.
He promised the government not will dispute the legality of the ukaz in the constitutional court. Moreover, it is possible to assert the following: if VR speaker Moroz does not calm down and continues his games with the judicial actions, then "Regionaly" will block this process.

Voters in the southeast cannot yet understand why he made concessions in favour of the President, so Viktor Yanukovych yesterday added that, in spite of Yushchenko's ukaz, the Verkhovna Rada of the 5th convocation remains legitimate. "Until a final ruling is made or an explanation is given by the constitutional court, the VR will continue to function," the premier stated. Yanukovych did not go into detail into what final ruling he had in mind. Furthermore, he knows well that Yushchenko will not sign any law passed by the VR.

Yesterday Yushchenko gathered together foreign ambassadors and informed them on behalf of the Ukrainian state that the VR's authority has been terminated. He asked diplomats not to associate with the VR leadership or the remaining deputies in their capacity as official representatives of Ukrainian authority. In other words Yushchenko has publicly stated that Moroz is an nobody in the state hierarchy. Interestingly, no reaction followed from Yanukovych to such a frank attack on his recent ally. This silence says much.

It is clear that the period of conflict is now over. This became apparent after the distribution of new posts in the Prosecutor-General's office and in the Central Election Committee, and the adoption of necessary laws for the elections, proposed by "Regionaly". The two Viktors have finally agreed. Although, as before, they have not weakened, and expect further dirty tricks from each other.

The Yushchenko-Yanukovych truce means final defeat for Moroz. San Sanych [Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Moroz] has lost everything, particularly the "golden share" of the Sotspartiya in the VR coalition. He has now served his purpose..

Today's "Kyiv Weekly' in an article entited "Parliamentary elections: the hawks have landed!" [in English], is not quite as optimistic and describes problems that may arise in the run-up to the elections.

And RBK reports that 30 BYuT deputies want to reactivate their activity in the VR, even though 103 of their number have supposedly 'ripped up' their VR deputy mandates.

BYuT deputy Oleksandr Kovtunenko is quoted as saying that a working group of 30 has been formed. Amongst them are those that do not agree "with the hysteria created by the leader of the bloc."

LEvko thinks some of these guys paid big money for a seat in the VR and so are not best pleased with what is happening..


UkraineToday said...

First I must agree a time comes when they political game play must come to an end. But never the less the fact still remains that Yushchenko has torn up the rule book and is clearly acting unconstitutional.

The only legal basis for dissolving the parliament is if 151 or more members resign from the parliament and the subsequent vacancies can not be fulfilled.

Technically the President should wait 30 days following September 4 before he is authorised to dismiss the parliament and call fresh elections under Article 90 section 3. On this basis the earliest elections can be held is October 6. But it seems that in the mind of Viktor Yushchenko and his ill-considered advisor's the only way the president is held accountable under the constitution is if the Constitutional court rules against his decree. In order to prevent this from happening the president has attacked the constitutional court again unconstitutionally, making it dysfunctional and unable to make a ruling according to the principle of law.

Two wrongs do not make a right and the president is clearly in the wrong. The president's actions are most certainly not one of a person who respects or understands the principles of democracy and rule of law, more like that of a despot dictator.

Whilst Moroz is technically correct there comes a time when practicality and common sense must prevail. The September 30 date is not "technically legal" and yes under the provisions of Ukraine's Constitution members of parliament are supposed to tender their resignations to the parliament before Article 90 section 3 can be evoked following 30 days period of grace.

According to all public opinion poll the results of the election will not change (Apart from a possibility of the Socialists falling behind the 3% artificial threshold barrier) The most recent poll shows the Party of Regions securing a 51% majority of the Parliamentary seats. (This will most like change as the campaign picks up not by much)

It is difficult to determine exactly why the president has taken such extreme measure and in doing so undermine public confidence and created deep divisions in Ukrainian society.

Is this really all about trying to get the numbers to have Ukraine join NATO? or is it more to do with a bit of house cleaning from the opposition benches.

Fresh elections will allow the opposition parties to dis-endorse those members they fell have betrayed their cause by crossing the floor and voting against the party/faction that elected them to office. In this respect it will strengthened opposition parties but to what extent and what impact. Those members that will be dis-endorsed will undoubtable seek to redirect their support elsewhere where they can continue to have some influence.

Given their track record it is difficult to see how Our Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko will work together.

Viktor Yushchenko having asserted authority where he has none has also stirred up a hornets nest which will eventually come back and sting the attacker.

Meaningful Constitutional reform will be that much harder to obtain consensus, if not out right impossible. There are lessons to be learnt from all other nations. No Nation has managed to succeed in having a referendum passed where there is significant opposition. Like what happened in France and in Holland with the European Union Constitution the people will vote down any reform that does not have broad support.

Maybe the president hopes that from a position of renewed strength he will be in a better situation to negotiate a compromise and suitable agreement to the formation of a grand coalition between our Ukraine and Party of Regions following the September election.

Whilst elections now appear as a forgone collusion to avoid ongoing damaging disputation the fact remains that fresh parliamentary elections are unlikely to resolve the conflict which will linger on until Ukraine holds fresh presidential elections.

if Party of Regions, as expected wins the elections and right to govern then the president position will be that somewhat tenuous and he would once again be under pressure to resign.

LEvko said...

Big comment from ukrainetoday - thank you for your contribution.

I tried to predict in my blog that PoR had come to terms with, and had accepted that Sept 30th elections will take place.

Today's 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has a lengthy interview with Boris Kolesnikov - he says.."30th September elections will take place, which PoR will win, and will form a government."

I do not think Yushchenko is a dictator, but he panicked that a 300+ majority would be formed in the VR that would 'drain away' his power. The war will continue after Sept 30th, but Moroz and the Socialists will probably have been forced from the field of battle.

I agree that there is not much chance of BYuT and NU working together, but there is a reasonable possibility of PoR and NU forming a coalition after the elections..

Yushchenko has already begun his 2009 presidential election campaign. He is looking fit and well.

elmer said...

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!

Ukraine Today has showed up to pee on everyone's leg and tell us it's raining!!!!

Yushchenko "attacked" the Constitutional Court?

Among many other questions - why did Susanna Stanik's mother get $12 million?

And why did the Party of Rogues and thugs BLOCK the formation of the Constitional Court for over 8 months?

In typical neo-sovok fashion, employed by the Party of Rogues, Ukraine Today gives us his Alice in Wonderland version of what is going on.

As does Yanukovych, who runs over to the poor people on Maidan who are paid to wave blue flags, and annonunces to people, who are paid to cheer: "I have brought Yushchenko to justice, I have brought Yushchenko to democracy."

Without Yushchenko, without Tymoshenko, without Lutsenko in Ukraine, there would only be a bunch of big, fat ugly thug oligarchs enriching themselves and continuing to stomp on the heads of people at whose expense they are enriching themselves.

In other words - Kuchmism.

Ukraine Today, go pee on your own leg.

Democracy is not about bribery, or oligarchs. I hope you can learn that.