Wednesday, June 06, 2007

Some early speculation..

RFE/RL reports:

"Parliament speaker Oleksandr Moroz said at a session of the Verkhovna Rada on June 5 that those lawmakers from the opposition Our Ukraine and Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc who withdrew last week did so in violation of relevant procedures.

According to last month's deal between the president, the prime minister, and the speaker, the opposition lawmakers were to withdraw to make the Verkhovna Rada illegitimate, thus paving the way for its self-dissolution and early polls in the fall. Moroz said the pullout of lawmakers should have been announced in the session hall and confirmed by him. "But this has not been done since, firstly, many deputies were absent and, secondly, there are absolutely substantiated doubts that the resignation statements were signed by the people named in them," the "Ukrayinska pravda" website quoted Moroz as saying.

"Unless the Central Election Commission signals to us that there is no one to replace those [deputies] who pulled out, and that those who pulled out have been stripped of their deputy powers, parliament will continue to work," he added.

Moroz also asserted that nearly 40 lawmakers from Our Ukraine actually do not want to give up their parliamentary seats, UNIAN reported."

Latest OP has PoR at 28.5%, BYuT at 20.1%, NU at 5.8%, Lutsenko's National Self-Defence at 5.3%, and Communists at 4.1%.

Socialists, with 2.3% would fail to enter the VR in early elections. Hence Moroz's desperate sabotaging..

LEvko thinks NU lack an attractive 'front-man' for their campaign so will struggle to gain any greater support; and these figures explain why BYuT were so keen on raising the minimum threshold for admission to the VR to 7 or 10%.

Communists will be pleased because they could well be required by PoR to form a ruling coalition [another big pay day..]

Lutsenko will be pleased too, and his political movement may be gaining momentum.

The OP figures, if repeated on September 30th, could well produce a PoR-NU coalition..But that is still a hell of long way away.

1 comment:

UkraineToday said...

You forgot to mention also the poll published on May 29.

Poll Notes Little Change in Voter Sentiment

Source: UkrNews

A recent public opinion poll published on May 29, 2007 (Source UkrNews) prior to the announcement of the October 30 Parliamentary election confirms little change in voter sentiment with Party of Regions securing over 51% of the parliamentary seats in their own right. The polls have been fairly consistent and the only party to experience a shift in fortune is the Socialist Party of Ukraine, headed by Olexander Moroz, who is currently on 2.8% (0.2% below the 3% parliamentary electoral threshold). If the polling results hold, and all indication is that they will, then the question must be asked - for what purpose has the president initiated his actions.