Friday, June 29, 2007

Politics - a rough trade..

So NU led by Vyacheslav Kyrylenko have formed a election bloc with Yuriy Lutsenko's National Self-Defence 'party'. Yuliya Tymoshenko has given this union her blessing, but has again emphasized that BYuT will be campaigning separately.

Yushchenko 'pulled the plug' on the Verkhovna Rada in April, four years before the next VR elections were due, because power was haemorrhaging from the presidency, yet most O.P.'s indicate the newly elected parliament's composition will be little different to that which was elected in March last year - PoR will undoubtedly be the largest bloc, and events since the OR suggest that any BYuT/NU coalition would not be durable, if it could be assembled. BYuT and NU will again be fighting over the same electorate - one party's loss will be the other party's gain.

Whether the president's forthright actions since April 2nd have contributed to democratic consolidation is debatable. Ukrainian politics over the years is replete with betrayal and treachery, and there is no reason to believe this state of affairs will not continue in the newly elected VR.

Sonya Koshkina, in a provocative article in the BYuT-leaning 'Obozrevatel' claims that Yushchenko is preparing to 'shaft' some of his orange assciates, in particular Tymoshenko, as part of a plan to win a second presidential term of office in 2009.

I've loosely translated portions:

The formation of a democratic mega-bloc has fizzled out, as could have been predicted, in many respects because Yushchenko himself has personally taken over manual control of the process. He has done this in order to simultaneously neutralize both Lutsenko and Tymoshenko - two of his main opponents in the 2009 presidential elections. Once this is accomplished, then he can tackle Yanukovych.

Current NU leader Vyacheslav Kirilenko is not a crowd-pulling political heavyweight so Yushchenko has bowed to former socialist Yuriy Lutsenko's demands and promised many of his National Self-defence people top jobs in any NU government, in exchange for his joining forces with NU. In this way the popular Lutsenko may be kept in check. The smaller right-wing parties in NU will probably be dumped.

However, Lutsenko's appearance in the orange bloc reduces the chances of a broad coalition being formed, and could even threaten the elections themselves, according to some PoR party workers.

Sonya Koshkina claims that Viktor Yanukovych agreed to take part in early elections only because the president had promised him that NU and "Regionaly" would form a broad ruling coalition after the elections. They also secretly mutally agreed to 'knobble' Tymoshenko.

About a week befor Ivan Plyushch's appointment as National Security and Defence Council secretary he contacted that old political fixer, the Donetskiyite Yefim Zvyagilskiy. These two senior statesmen outlined a plan between themselves to overcome the crisis by forming a broad coalition, and this meant combined action against Tymoshenko. They then met head of the pres's secretariat Viktor Baloha, and further plotting took place - the president being well aware of what was going on. Subsequently Rinat Akhmetov and Raisa Bohatyryova met Yushchenko, who later praised Akhmetov for his assistance in solving the political crisis.

Mutual dislike of Tymoshenko is the only factor that Yu and Ya share - both have presidential ambitions, so both need to remove Tymoshenko from their path. According to Koshkina, they are both planning a dirty election campaign, which could even involve the SBU security services, to discredit Tymoshenko.

The Oboz article ends with a link to an audio file recording of an eavesdropped telephone conversation, allegedly between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko, in which he bawls her out for an interview she supposed to have given to the BBC in which she is critical of him. Her responses are of bewilderment. [This may well have been 'placed' in the media by Tymoshenko's camp.]

O.K, this all could be speculation and 'provokatsiya', but politics in Ukraine is a rough trade..and the elections are a long way off..


UkraineToday said...

Friday, June 29, 2007
Marriage of Convenience
Or Strategic Mistake

The long and at times agonising negotiations over the formation of a political alliance between Our Ukraine and the breakaway dissident People's Self-Defence party has finally been signed. (Link: ). The details of the agreement have not yet been published.

The formation of the alliance will put pressure on Yulia Tymoshenko as the new political bloc could very well secure the most votes at the election and as such will decide who will become prime-minister. Previous polls have shown Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and a possible Our Ukraine alliance neck and neck for public support. Each with around 16-19% of the vote.

The established alliance may deliver much needed "public relations" benefits as Our Ukraine tries to bolster its public appeal and

The down side is that according to
the People's Self-defence group would receive more then 3% of the vote and as such would have had a reasonable chance of being elected to the parliament in its own right, giving it much more freedom of movement and control over decision making. The upside is that its leaders are guaranteed to be elected in an expanded alliance.

The other possible downside is that whilst a number of people would have been prepared to support and vote for the People's Self-Defence Party as a stand alone party they may not continue to attract the same support as a junior partner in what is seen as a marriage of convenience. On the numbers game People's self-defence would have been better off remaining unencumbered as a stand alone party.

It is early days in the campaign and whilst there will be an expected "honey moon period" as the campaign begins to take form and the issues facing Ukraine are discussed things could go anyway. With around 15% of Ukrainians uncommitted the outcome is still an unknown quantity.

elmer said...

Tell me something, please.

At this point, with all the information that has been revealed, why would anyone vote for the Party of Regions and "donbass democracy"?

The Party of Regions has done nothing for the people.

Notwithstanding huge, confusing long ballots, the upcoming elections are the one chance that PEOPLE have to finally break the system of oligarchy and corruption, which does only a few oligarchs some good.

I run into people who still think their phones are being tapped, and that they are being watched, and, if they have a computer, that "someone" is pulling information about them out of their computer.

Are people still really that easily fearful and intimidated?

If I'm going to choose someone who speaks out for the average person, the last people I would choose is the Party of Regions, the commies, and the socialists.

I would go only with Lutsenko's bloc or with Tymoshenko's bloc.

Help me figure this one out, please.

Anonymous said...

Comements are not being publihsed ... editorial policy?