Thursday, June 04, 2009

What's in it for Yanik?

At the time of writing PM Yulia Tymoshenko, PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych, and VR speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn are still in talks on the possible formation of a PoR/BYuT broad coalition. No-one really knows what the chances of success are.

But the question has to be asked, what's in it for Yanukovych? He is easily the most popular politician in Ukraine, and his party are well-funded. He would most likely win any scheduled presidential elections early next year, or this year, if president Yushchenko were to call early presidential elections. Parliamentary oppositions always strive to bring down the incumbent government, particularly if it is as 'wobbly', as the current administration is in Ukraine. This could still happen. So why go for coalition?

It's true that the oligarchs and financial-industrial groups that dominate Ukraine's major parties crave the political peace and stability a PoR/BYuT coalition could possibly bring. And none of them is keen to 'stump up' the $1/2Bn required for a presidential election campaign at the height of a global economic crisis.

Events last September proved PoR and BYuT had spent a busy summer recess last year plotting on how to weaken the president's powers. It is clear now that dialogue continued between them until now, and that PoR fancied such a 'shyrka' [the broad coalition now being proposed].

In 2005 Yushchenko dismissed Yulia Tymoshenko from her PM's position a few months after the orange revolution. In 2007 he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a constitutionally most dubious manner, leading to Yanukovych's exit from the PM's office, so both have a common enemy.

And it is possible that 'the new kid on the block', Arseniy Yatseniuk could 'pip' both of them to the presidency in the next presidential elections, so maybe not a bad idea to 'shut him out'.

But none of this IMO is sufficient for Yanukovych to join Tymoshenko in a PoR/BYuT coalition with Tymoshenko remaining PM, even if he were to be elected president in parliament in half a year's time. PoR have no other credible candidate for president apart from Yanukovych.

I believe that Yanukovych is aware that in any future presidential election he, personally, with his shady background would again be placed under the microscope, as during the 2004 campaign. It would be dirty - and no doubt, painful for him. And some of the mud always sticks.

A deal now with BYuT would 'clear the slate', provide absolution of previous sins - he would become a man worthy of the presidency - his criminal background, the theatrical collapse caused by the egg, the sweeties for Putin, proffessorships etc. all transferred to a previous life. He would be able to hold his head up high amongst the ranks of the righteous - his place in history secure. And to be able to present the winning football team with their medals in 2012 - the whole of Europe watching - what a prize!


Anonymous said...

You've got to be kidding, this is a joke, right?

Anonymous said...

If you think that the only goal of Yanukovych and Party of regions is to win the presidency then yes there is not much in it for him.

Yanukovych holds poll position in the next Presidential race. He has everything going for him. He is the highest polling candidate and as such he will face off with any other second highest poling candidate in the second round of voting. The polls place him ahead of both Yulia Tymochenko or Yatseniuk in a two horse race.

The fact that Yushchenko has indicated his intention to nominate for a second term of office only works in Yanukovych's favour.

The proposed coalition is not about winning the Presidency. It is about Ukraine's long term interest and the need for Ukraine to implement democratic constitutional reform. .

Winning the next round of presidential or parliamentary elections will not address the problems facing Ukraine.

Contrary to Yushchenko's false statements Party of Regions and Block Yulia Tymoshenko are both supportive of Ukraine becoming a true democratic state.

Ukraine must put an end to the politics of division and Presidential rule.

The presidential system has failed Ukraine and now is the time for Ukraine to embrace European models and European systems of governance.

Without consensus and constitutional reform both sides of politics along with Ukraine will continue to flounder.

The question is not "what's in it for Yanukovych but what it has to offer Ukraine"

The proposed constitutional amendments will put an end to the politics of division and will allow Ukraine to establish stability and democratic governance.

Anonymous said...

If Constitutional reform is to be enacted prior to the next scheduled Presidential elections then it will have to be introduced this session of parliament.

Under the terms of Ukraine's Constitution (Article ) two-thirds of Ukraine's Parliament must agree to the proposed amendments which must be passed at the next regular session (Article 82 and 83) of the parliament which starts in September this year.

Extract from Ukraine's Constitution

Article 82

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine works in sessions.

Article 83

Regular sessions of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine commence on the first Tuesday of February and on the first Tuesday of September each year.

Chapter XIII

Introducing Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine

Article 154

A draft law on introducing amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine may be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by the President of Ukraine, or by no fewer People’s Deputies of Ukraine than one-third of the constitutional composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.

Article 155

A draft law on introducing amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine, with the exception of Chapter I — "General Principles," Chapter III — "Elections. Referendum," and Chapter XIII — "Introducing Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine," previously adopted by the majority of the constitutional composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, is deemed to be adopted, if at the next regular session of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, no less than two-thirds of the constitutional composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine have voted in favour thereof.

Article 156

A draft law on introducing amendments to Chapter I — "General Principles," Chapter III — "Elections. Referendum," and Chapter XIII — "Introducing Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine," is submitted to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine by the President of Ukraine, or by no less than two-thirds of the constitutional composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, and on the condition that it is adopted by no less than two-thirds of the constitutional composition of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, and is approved by an All-Ukrainian referendum designated by the President of Ukraine.

Anonymous said...

Yushchenko's failure and betrayal of Ukraine has been his greatest achievement. He has united BYuT and Party of Regions in the belief that Ukraine needs to adopt a Parliamentary system of governance.

in 2006 Yushchenko's Our Ukraine betrayed the supporters of the Orange revolution and in the process caused its demise. The Socialist Party rejected the policies of domination sought by the President and faced with little alternative abandoned the President and reached agreement with Party of Regions and the Communist party of Ukraine to form a governing coalition restoring political stability.

In 2007 Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismissed Ukraine's democratically elected Parliament and in the process caused Ukraine into suffer seven months of political and social unrest. It was later revealed that Yushchenko's motive for the dismissal of Parliament was to 1. Prevent the Parliament from securing support for Ukraine to amend its constitution and adopt a full parliamentary model of governance in line with other European States. Yushchenko and his Political advisors where of the belief that fresh Parliamentary election would result in Our Ukraine holding the balance of power in the new Parliament and as such would be able to once again open negotiations with Party of Regions to form a new coalition government.

Seven months of political unrest and betrayal, Yushchenko gambled and lost on the outcome of forced elections.

In September 2008 one year on form the 2007 Parliamentary election Yushchenko with the support of his secretariat once again tried to undermine Ukraine's parliamentary system by seeking to cause the collapse of the governing coalition with Block Yulia Tymoshenko.

Yushchenko's betrayal and his ongoing efforts to undermine and oppose Ukraine's democratic development has been his won undoing.

Yushchenko has had four years in office and has achieved nothing. His support has collapsed to below 3%. He no longer is trusted. His vision and proposal for constitutional reform does not address the underlying problems facing Ukraine.

The proposed reforms being discussed by BYuT and Party of Regions are worthy of support. they would see Ukraine complete the transition from a Presidential system to a Parliamentary democracy. It would see Ukraine adopt European standards and European models of Governance. Most importantly it will pout an end to the divisive and destructive and power struggle between the office of the president and the Parliament. Restoring stability and hopefully trust.

Direct election of a head of state is not the basis or test of a democracy.

There are many examples of successful Western democracies where the head of state is not directly elected.

At a cost of over 100 million dollars per round there is no justification to hold direct Presidential elections, even more so when there is an acceptable democratic alternative in having the head of state appointed by a constitutional majority of the parliament.

Instead of clinging on to power and opposing the proposed coalition of reform and stability alliance between BYuT and Party of Regions Yushchenko should be embracing it.

Yushchenko's attempt to enlist the support of other western nations by falsely claiming the proposed coalition as a coup will fail.

Western democracies can not be seen to deny Ukraine the right to chose itэs form of governance. Even more so when that proposed reforms are in line with European standards and European models.