It is almost a week since my last blog. Circumstantial evidence, unattributed reports, and the mood music of party media spokesmen all seem to confirm that a EU/Ukraine deal will, most likely, not be struck at the end of the month.
E.g. this recent 'Kyiv Post' report : "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory" by Katya Gorchinskaya, is very gloomy..
'RBK' today report that according to their sources no deal will be struck.
I could go on...
In parliament, a committee of deputies attempting to formulate an agreeable law enabling prisoners [i..e Tymoshenko], to be released for medical treatment abroad, have been going round in never ending circles. Opposition deputies will not leave the table lest they be accused of scuppering the deal. However, this did not prevent about 70 - 80 PoR deputies from flying to Paris on expenses yesterday for the France - Ukraine World Cup qualifying soccer match.....
In their negotiations with the EU, Ukrainians are demanding and expecting the same kind of sums Poland receives from the EU....[ e.g. over the next seven years 73 billion euros of European Union money has been allocated to that country. Source]
'Kommentarii' claims, for the Ukrainian side: "$20Bn would be an acceptable price for signing of the Association Agreement"
So that's the bottom line: $20Bn and 'the bird' can fly out her cage...
For the EU this is unrealistic, considering Ukraine's status vis a vis the EU, and the level of internal corruption. Any money that is provided needs to be doled out piecemeal and closely monitored; it will also be linked to unpalatable reform.
Yanukovych [like his predecessor Yushchenko] is a lazy politician who likes comfort, and making lots of money..not one for directing historical watershed political events. In the remote likelihood of AA being signed there will be piles and piles of stuff to do..years of hard work for the government..introducing unpalatable reforms, cutting out the insider deals, etc.
My guess is that EU leaders are beginning to realise Yanuk, Azarov and the rest of this mob are not really up to this task. How much more humiliation are they going to take?