Monday, March 17, 2014

Akhmetov playing with fire {updated]

Some seasoned observers of the current situation in Ukraine claim: "The methods, shifting rhetoric, the vibe in Crimea all point to a wider war"

Most worryingly disturbances by pro-Russia demonstrators in Donetsk have continued for many days and there is little sign they may abate.

Andriy Vysynskiy, in an 'Ekonomichna Pravda' article, suggests 'King of Donbas', Rinat Akhmetov, could bring matters under control with little trouble it this was his wish, but has his own plans. Akhmetov is the man who owns half the town, its law enforcement agencies, judiciary, civil servants, everything of significance; particularly now his old partner-in-crime Yanukovych has jumped ship. If Akhmetov truly wished to clear the pro-Russia demonstrators and out-of-town provocateurs, this could be done, no problem.

Seasoned journalists like Serhiy Leshchenko, takes a similar line. Leshchenko also alleges Akhmetov's aircraft was turned back from Great Britain without landing after rumours that Akhmetov would be asked by Brisish authorities to 'help with enquiries'. Swiss authorities have also raided his DTEK company in Geneva.

Vysytskiy suggests Akhmetov favours a federalisation of Ukraine, or perhaps even a confederation formed by cantons on the Swiss model whereby German, French and Italian citizens all manage to co-exist. His motive? To entrench his power even deeper in the region and to reduce the likelihood of persecution by central Ukrainian authorities in the future for his previous 'transgressions'. [Both the flight of Yanukovych and the arrest of Dmitro Firtash in Vienna several days ago, must have shaken Akhmetov, who has homes in London, Monte Carlo, and elsewhere, to the core.]

The USA, it seems, would also favour some kind of  "power sharing and decentralization through a constitutional reform process" Putin is demanding: 'No NATO, No EU,

If disturbances continue in the eastern oblasts of Ukraine, Akhmetov and his oligarch companions will call for a referendum on federalisation, insisting they are bowing to the demands of 'the street'. But Putin may have other ideas...

p.s. Here is the proposal Lavrov allegedly put before Kerry in London last Friday.

It declares "the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and neutral military and political status [of Ukraine] shall be guaranteed by Russia, the EU, and the US...

Not worth the paper it is written on....territorial integrity was guaranteed under the Budapest what? And now its no EU either....

No comments: