Sunday, March 02, 2014

No casus belli

Presidential elections in Ukraine were to take place in Spring next year. They are now scheduled to be held at the end of May. Whenever they were to be [or will be], it was almost certain a pro-EU president would have have been elected and progress made in the signing of the EU/Ukraine Association Agreement. Putin simply could not accept this, hence the invasion of Crimea and the destabilisation of Ukraine.

Putin's gangster logic is "If I can't have it...nobody can have it..not until it is raped and pulled to pieces"...This is the reason for his actions.

The vast majority of Russophone Ukrainians are relatively comfortable living in Ukraine. Most revealingly, it is your blogger's experience that even when many Ukrainian diplomatic officials communicate with one another, during unguarded moments, it tends to be in Russian..

To the vast majority of Ukrainians, including Russophone Ukrainians, the idea of any armed conflict with Russia is absolutely abhorrent. There is lots of evidence that provocateurs [a Russian speciality] have been active in Ukraine. They were present yesterday at a mass meeting in Donetsk..[see previous blog]

The vast majority of Russophone Ukrainians do no feel Russian just as Australians or Canadians do not feel English, even if they have an affinity for Great Britain..

A supposedly pro-Russian [absolutely not anti-Russian] president with strong administrative powers has run the country for the last four years, and a new government has only been formed a few days ago. There is scant evidence that Russophone Ukrainians have been discriminated against in any significant way in recent years. Western politician and media seem to ignore this fact.

The parliament of Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada, is an entirely legitimate body...any ruling it makes is absolutely incontrovertible. Many recent decisions have been made there by more than a constitutional majority.

There is no place in Ukraine where Russophones felt more secure than in is a semi-autonomous region. There is a powerful Russian navy base in Sevastopol... so why the invasion?

Quite simply, there is no casus belli...not even a tiny fig leaf..

p.s. The 'king of Donbas' - the king of Ukraine's most significant Russophone reigion, Rinat Akhmetov, has just posted this on the SCM site:

Dear fellow Ukrainians,
The future of our country has been put under threat. The internal political tension threatens to escalate into a lengthy conflict and destroy the integrity of Ukraine. 
The use of force and lawless actions from outside are unacceptable.
I believe that the crisis must only have a peaceful solution.
I call upon all fellow citizens to unite for the sake of the unity and integrity of Ukraine. Today this is the most important action. We must keep a cool head, not yield to provocations and make well-considered and balanced decisions.
The unity of society, business, and authorities is our strength.
Today the economy is a real political power. Our objective is to ensure the safety of people and their families and secure stable operations of companies in the country.
We will work 24/7 to sustain the operability of Ukraine’s infrastructure. This is our biggest contribution to the integrity of the country.
I call upon the politicians and the Ukrainian government to take every effort to secure the nation’s territorial sovereignty, restore democracy, and the unalienable rights and freedoms of citizens.
I call upon business circles in Ukraine and business partners of Ukrainian companies to join our efforts and work together to contribute to the peaceful settlement and to spare no material resource.
I believe that through our combined efforts we will champion our future – a strong, united and independent Ukraine.
I state with all due responsibility that SCM Group, which today employs 300,000 people and represents Ukraine from west to east and from north to south, will do everything possible to maintain the integrity of our country.
[My highlight]


UkrToday said...

✓Cancel Presidential Election
✓Remove power from President
✓Have Parliament elect head of state by 2/3 majority vote
✓Save >$200Mil
✓Remove Yarosh
✓Engage E Ukraine
✓Reinstate Language rights
✓Say No to NATO
✓Unite not divide the nation
✓Remain Independent
✓Remove authority from President
✓Implement Constitutional & Parliamentary reform
✓Hold Fresh Parliamentary elections following

Reset and restart Ukraine

Sadly Ukraine has lost Crimea. Hopefully it will not lose the rest

Excellent balanced debate on

Andry said...

Prediction. The May 25 presidential elections will be canceled.

A summit on Constitutional reform will be initiated prior to fresh elections.

In order to reach out to Eastern Ukraine the authorities will need to rethink the issue on Language and reinstate the law allowing Russian to be an official language. This has been one of the most divisive issues and must be out to rest. It is not important.