'Ukrainska Pravda' has run several articles lately exposing corruption at the top of Ukraine's Mount Olympus. Here's a precis of what they say:
First Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Klyuyev heads a Government Commission for funding investment projects. One of the first decisions made this body on his appointment was to allocate state aid of about $ 25 million to a semiconductor factory in Zaporizhzhya earmarked for the development of solar power plants.
The main shareholder of the factory with a share of 75 percent, is the Vienna-based "Activ Solar GmbH" - it has been linked many times with Klyuyev himself.
Klyuyev's son-in-law, Kaveh Ertefai from Dubai, is a director. His son Bohdan is a business development manager at the company. Amongst its founders is "Slav Beteiligung GmbH" which is owned by the Kluyev brothers on a 50-50 basis. Slav Beteiligung's offices are in the same building as those of Activ Solar in Vienna.
The secretive end-owners of Activ Solar are a mysterious Leichtenstein-based company, 'P&A Corporate Trust', 1 Stocklerweg, Vaduz.
A major portion of Yanukovych's palatial 'Mezhyhirya' residence, as well as hunting lodges and large expanses of forest near Kyiv, are owned by London-registered Blythe (Europe) Ltd which in turn owns 35% of the Kyiv 'Tantalit' company. The director and nominated share holder of Blythe (Europe) Ltd is the same 'P&A Corporate Trust' registered at the same address in Leichtenstein.
Wikileaks reveals that Klyuyev and Yanukovych were almost certainly close business partners in the past. Is it possible they still are? The president 'plugged' the Zaporizhzhya factory in his scandalously plagiarised book, and actively promoted the sale of its solar panels during a recent visit to Greece.
Two years ago Yanukovych sold Klyuyev his Kyiv apartment for a grossly inflated price of $7m.
When Europeans decide whether to grant Associate Membership to Ukraine, or not, later this year, apart from the persecution of Tymoshenko, Lutsenko and others, these matters, as well as those I've recently blogged about, will be borne in mind as they vote.. No-one wants to invite pick-pockets to their house-party.
p.s. Ukraine's Foreign Ministry welcomed today's resolution [which was supported by all factions in the European Parliament] calling it: "A great victory." One PoR deputy called it "absolutely normal" and claimed "the main credit for this resolution should go to president Viktor Yanukovych". A few more victories like that ...
LEvko's view is that the EU's 'red lines' are very clear; all these statements are groundwork for internal consumption intended to shift blame elsewhere when the deal goes 'belly up'...
p.p.s. "One of the reasons the EU has reacted so harshly is they feel they've been hoodwinked twice by Yanukovych," said Andrew Wilson, a senior policy fellow with the London-based European Council on Foreign Relations. "The EU is entirely right to have taken the tough line with Ukraine. And in many ways they can and should be even tougher. Yanukovych's biggest problem in dealing with the EU is his belief that the rest of the world is as cynical as he is.
"Ukraine is always said to be at a crossroads, and because of this miscalculation, now they actually are."
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Wednesday, October 26, 2011
Authorities' brazen greed knows no bounds
In June this year I posted several blogs about a huge scam involving the purchase by the state-owned 'ChornomorNaftohaz' company of an oil drilling rig but, not content with the $150 million kick-back from that deal, Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko has just pulled the same stunt again.
According to 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', 'ChornomorNaftohaz' has purchased yet another oil drilling platform, this time for $399.8 million. Tenders were received from three middlemen, all of them highly dubious, including from Highway Investment - the middlemen for the first oil rig.
The winners of the tender process this time were the Latvian Rigas Kugu company. They have nothing to do with oil platforms, but are merely a shipyard for construction and refurbishement of small-sized coastal vessels. Their majority share owner is a certain Vasyl Melnyk who is currently entangled in big-time scandals in his home country.
'D.T.' with the aid of the specialist U.S. consultants, 'Rigzone', found there are two oil drilling platforms currently available on the world market which would have suited ChornomorNaftohaz's requirements - both priced at $200m.
The publication consider rental of such a rig would be a far better bet - even optimistic oil production projections indicate that there is no need for purchase of such expensive capital equipment. Anyhow, after the scandal following the purchase of the first oil drilling platform, it would be reasonable to assume that the purchase of the second would be conducted in a 'squeeky clean' manner.
'D.T.' suggest the brazen attitude of ChornomorNaftogaz and Ukrainian ministers in this latest purchase indicates that the president himself must be involved in the scam too, particularly as ChornomorNaftogaz's parent company, 'NaftoHaz Ukrainy' is already up to its ears in debt.
In the light of such stories, the prosecution of opposition politicians looks even-more politically motivated. No wonder the Europeans are so disgusted with Ukraine's leaders whose commitment to fighting corruption is total hogwash.
The kleptomaniacs in the Ukrainian cabinet should take note of how things are done in other European countries. The British Business Secretary and cabinet member Vince Cable who has just been penalised by the taxman for failing to pay up to £25,000 in VAT on time. The £500 penalty was for late payment of tax on earnings from media work and speaking engagements in 2009-10 - the year before he became a minister.
p.s. An excellent, quick-paced television documentary, in Ukrainian, on the above-mentioned oil rig scandal from TVi here
According to 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', 'ChornomorNaftohaz' has purchased yet another oil drilling platform, this time for $399.8 million. Tenders were received from three middlemen, all of them highly dubious, including from Highway Investment - the middlemen for the first oil rig.
The winners of the tender process this time were the Latvian Rigas Kugu company. They have nothing to do with oil platforms, but are merely a shipyard for construction and refurbishement of small-sized coastal vessels. Their majority share owner is a certain Vasyl Melnyk who is currently entangled in big-time scandals in his home country.
'D.T.' with the aid of the specialist U.S. consultants, 'Rigzone', found there are two oil drilling platforms currently available on the world market which would have suited ChornomorNaftohaz's requirements - both priced at $200m.
The publication consider rental of such a rig would be a far better bet - even optimistic oil production projections indicate that there is no need for purchase of such expensive capital equipment. Anyhow, after the scandal following the purchase of the first oil drilling platform, it would be reasonable to assume that the purchase of the second would be conducted in a 'squeeky clean' manner.
'D.T.' suggest the brazen attitude of ChornomorNaftogaz and Ukrainian ministers in this latest purchase indicates that the president himself must be involved in the scam too, particularly as ChornomorNaftogaz's parent company, 'NaftoHaz Ukrainy' is already up to its ears in debt.
In the light of such stories, the prosecution of opposition politicians looks even-more politically motivated. No wonder the Europeans are so disgusted with Ukraine's leaders whose commitment to fighting corruption is total hogwash.
The kleptomaniacs in the Ukrainian cabinet should take note of how things are done in other European countries. The British Business Secretary and cabinet member Vince Cable who has just been penalised by the taxman for failing to pay up to £25,000 in VAT on time. The £500 penalty was for late payment of tax on earnings from media work and speaking engagements in 2009-10 - the year before he became a minister.
p.s. An excellent, quick-paced television documentary, in Ukrainian, on the above-mentioned oil rig scandal from TVi here
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
Petroleum scam money used to fund PoR election campaign?
Nearly a year ago, I posted a blog about a huge scandal surrounding the importation of petroleum products into Ukraine via the mysterious "Livela" company.
A good overview was provided on the osw.waw.pl website:
"Problems of refineries in Ukraine
2011-01-19 Last week, the Supreme Administrative Court judgement passed a ruling confirming the mysterious Livela company’s right to the untaxed import of crude oil and fuels. This company is most likely linked to politicians belonging to the Party of Regions. The Court’s judgement may form the basis for the resumption of the company’s activities; it has led to multi-billion losses for the Ukrainian budget and harmed the profitability of the oil processing industry.
Livela is a daughter company of the secretive Taistra firm; it has been operating on the basis of an outdated Ukrainian law from 1992 on the protection of foreign investments, which exempts companies with foreign capital from the payment of taxes (customs duties, VAT and excise duties). Although the act expired in 2003, the next year Taistra managed to obtain a judgement from the Court which preserved its tax breaks. Livela worked actively from August to November 2010 to rapidly monopolise the market for fuel imports (resulting in an 80% market share). In December, in connection with a investigation by the anti-monopoly committee, Livela ceased its imports.
The losses to the Ukrainian budget amounted to approximately 3 billion hryvnia (US$375m). The import of cheap fuels has caused a decline in the profitability of refineries in Ukraine; the LUKoil refinery in Odessa suspended production in October. On 15 January, the Executive Director of TNK-BP in Ukraine announced that if the Government does not take measures to protect the Ukrainian petroleum industry, production in the group's refineries in Lysychansk will cease.
It is not known who benefits from Taistra’s activities, but it is clear that it must be supported at the highest level of the Party of Regions (some sources suggest that the first Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Kluyev is involved). If Livela resumes importing fuels, this could lead to the rapid bankruptcy of the already unprofitable Ukrainian oil-refining industry."
Many more details on "Livela" and "Taistra" here
Now 'Ukrainska Pravda's brave journalists run a story providing strong circumstantial evidence that Yanukovych and his band of crooks had indeed been using 'Livela' as a milch-cow, almost certainly to fund the nationwide 2010 local election campaign.
Amongst their conclusions:
According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" and "Taistra" actively imported fuel in 2004, 2007 and 2010, respectively. Viktor Yanukovych was either prime minister or president during these years,
In the summer of 2010, when the Party of Regions began to prepare for country-wide local elections the PoR headquarters were headed by First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Klyuyev.
"Taistra" is linked, via PoR parliamentary deputy Volodymyr Zubyk, to a big-time property developer 'InterHalBud' which has probably been used, in turn, to 'legalise' 'Taystra's liquid assets - converting them into high-rise residences and other buildings. Zubyk has previously been associated with Klyuyev.
According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" started to import fuel to Ukraine again in August 2010. A month later the electoral campaign for election of deputies and heads of local councils was launched.
Local elections formally ended on November 3rd. According to the country's customs service, on the 23rd of that month, "Livela" ceased importing fuel to Ukraine.
The 'U.P' article provides a stunning graphic for the last 5 months of 2010 showing the quantity of diesel and petroleum that was imported by 'Livela' during that period and its correlation with the 2010 election campaign... In November 2010 around 80% of the country's diesel and gasoline was imported via "Livela" - in December it dropped to zero.
p.s. Is it any wonder that the EU are wary of signing Association Agreements with party leaders who 'legally' steal money from state coffers to fund their political election campaigns while at the same time they imprison political rivals e.g. for 'overpaying their driver'?
p.p.s. From a recent thoughtful essay "Expanding the EU’s Ostpolitik" by Thomas de Waal
"To these [Eastern Partnership] oligarchic elites the EU’s toughly regulated economy model is, as one Brussels official put it to me, a “Trojan horse,” which could undermine everything they currently possess. Which is why with three of the six countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus—there is currently no prospect of any free trade agreement and in the other three—Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—there is resistance to the proposed Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. [No more 'Livela fiddles for a start..LEvko]
Viktor Yanukovych’s Ukraine is the starkest example of this duality. The Ukrainian leadership knows that the EU offers its best development model and route out of poverty, but the short-term political agenda—put crudely, the preservation of power and wealth—trumps a longer-term vision. The jailing of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko on October 11 was a slap in the face to concerted efforts by the EU to encourage Ukraine to look west...."
....If a new Ostpolitik is to have a really transformative effect in these post-Soviet countries, then its central component should be an eventual membership perspective. Those who baulk at this prospect should not just consider the positive outcomes it could bring but also the negatives of a continuing status quo. In the eastern regions of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, that would mean they remain a continuing source of criminality, poverty, and perhaps political repression, while in the South Caucasus, that means they will continue to be sources of potential conflict and disaster—while in both cases the big western neighbor of these regions, the EU, will inevitably end up fighting the fires and footing the bills." [Hmmm...]
A good overview was provided on the osw.waw.pl website:
"Problems of refineries in Ukraine
2011-01-19 Last week, the Supreme Administrative Court judgement passed a ruling confirming the mysterious Livela company’s right to the untaxed import of crude oil and fuels. This company is most likely linked to politicians belonging to the Party of Regions. The Court’s judgement may form the basis for the resumption of the company’s activities; it has led to multi-billion losses for the Ukrainian budget and harmed the profitability of the oil processing industry.
Livela is a daughter company of the secretive Taistra firm; it has been operating on the basis of an outdated Ukrainian law from 1992 on the protection of foreign investments, which exempts companies with foreign capital from the payment of taxes (customs duties, VAT and excise duties). Although the act expired in 2003, the next year Taistra managed to obtain a judgement from the Court which preserved its tax breaks. Livela worked actively from August to November 2010 to rapidly monopolise the market for fuel imports (resulting in an 80% market share). In December, in connection with a investigation by the anti-monopoly committee, Livela ceased its imports.
The losses to the Ukrainian budget amounted to approximately 3 billion hryvnia (US$375m). The import of cheap fuels has caused a decline in the profitability of refineries in Ukraine; the LUKoil refinery in Odessa suspended production in October. On 15 January, the Executive Director of TNK-BP in Ukraine announced that if the Government does not take measures to protect the Ukrainian petroleum industry, production in the group's refineries in Lysychansk will cease.
It is not known who benefits from Taistra’s activities, but it is clear that it must be supported at the highest level of the Party of Regions (some sources suggest that the first Deputy Prime Minister Andriy Kluyev is involved). If Livela resumes importing fuels, this could lead to the rapid bankruptcy of the already unprofitable Ukrainian oil-refining industry."
Many more details on "Livela" and "Taistra" here
Now 'Ukrainska Pravda's brave journalists run a story providing strong circumstantial evidence that Yanukovych and his band of crooks had indeed been using 'Livela' as a milch-cow, almost certainly to fund the nationwide 2010 local election campaign.
Amongst their conclusions:
According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" and "Taistra" actively imported fuel in 2004, 2007 and 2010, respectively. Viktor Yanukovych was either prime minister or president during these years,
In the summer of 2010, when the Party of Regions began to prepare for country-wide local elections the PoR headquarters were headed by First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine, Andriy Klyuyev.
"Taistra" is linked, via PoR parliamentary deputy Volodymyr Zubyk, to a big-time property developer 'InterHalBud' which has probably been used, in turn, to 'legalise' 'Taystra's liquid assets - converting them into high-rise residences and other buildings. Zubyk has previously been associated with Klyuyev.
According to the Ukrainian customs data, "Livela" started to import fuel to Ukraine again in August 2010. A month later the electoral campaign for election of deputies and heads of local councils was launched.
Local elections formally ended on November 3rd. According to the country's customs service, on the 23rd of that month, "Livela" ceased importing fuel to Ukraine.
The 'U.P' article provides a stunning graphic for the last 5 months of 2010 showing the quantity of diesel and petroleum that was imported by 'Livela' during that period and its correlation with the 2010 election campaign... In November 2010 around 80% of the country's diesel and gasoline was imported via "Livela" - in December it dropped to zero.
p.s. Is it any wonder that the EU are wary of signing Association Agreements with party leaders who 'legally' steal money from state coffers to fund their political election campaigns while at the same time they imprison political rivals e.g. for 'overpaying their driver'?
p.p.s. From a recent thoughtful essay "Expanding the EU’s Ostpolitik" by Thomas de Waal
"To these [Eastern Partnership] oligarchic elites the EU’s toughly regulated economy model is, as one Brussels official put it to me, a “Trojan horse,” which could undermine everything they currently possess. Which is why with three of the six countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Belarus—there is currently no prospect of any free trade agreement and in the other three—Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine—there is resistance to the proposed Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with the EU. [No more 'Livela fiddles for a start..LEvko]
Viktor Yanukovych’s Ukraine is the starkest example of this duality. The Ukrainian leadership knows that the EU offers its best development model and route out of poverty, but the short-term political agenda—put crudely, the preservation of power and wealth—trumps a longer-term vision. The jailing of former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko on October 11 was a slap in the face to concerted efforts by the EU to encourage Ukraine to look west...."
....If a new Ostpolitik is to have a really transformative effect in these post-Soviet countries, then its central component should be an eventual membership perspective. Those who baulk at this prospect should not just consider the positive outcomes it could bring but also the negatives of a continuing status quo. In the eastern regions of Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, that would mean they remain a continuing source of criminality, poverty, and perhaps political repression, while in the South Caucasus, that means they will continue to be sources of potential conflict and disaster—while in both cases the big western neighbor of these regions, the EU, will inevitably end up fighting the fires and footing the bills." [Hmmm...]
Monday, October 24, 2011
Could anyone do any better?
On Friday's 'Shuster Live' programme, former president Yushchenko expained why Ukraine is paying far to much for Russian gas. He used a marker and board, drawing complex, and i.m.o. very poorly drawn 'back-of-an envelope' diagrams and figures. For someone who claimed he was 'one of the best five bankers in the world' it was all very unprofessional - terrible white-board work. Has he not heard of Powerpoint?
Naturally all of her enemies claim Yulia Tymoshenko is to blame for the dreadful 2009 gas deal.
But what none of them can explain is how, under the same circumstances, they would have done better.
It seem to me the only way this could be done is if either Putin confesses he bribed Tymoshenko to do a bad deal [solid evidence of this, rather than conjecture would need to be produced], or Putin openly declares that another Ukrainian interlocutor would have been granted a better deal. Either are hardly likely.
What Yushchenko should have said is: if you buy from a monopolist supplier, you always get screwed, particularly if you are one of the world's biggest consumers of the product being purchased.The Russians are smarter, they have spend billions on North Stream - to deny Ukraine being a monopolist transitter of gas....Like the meerkat in this amusing advert says: "Seempels".
Naturally all of her enemies claim Yulia Tymoshenko is to blame for the dreadful 2009 gas deal.
But what none of them can explain is how, under the same circumstances, they would have done better.
It seem to me the only way this could be done is if either Putin confesses he bribed Tymoshenko to do a bad deal [solid evidence of this, rather than conjecture would need to be produced], or Putin openly declares that another Ukrainian interlocutor would have been granted a better deal. Either are hardly likely.
What Yushchenko should have said is: if you buy from a monopolist supplier, you always get screwed, particularly if you are one of the world's biggest consumers of the product being purchased.The Russians are smarter, they have spend billions on North Stream - to deny Ukraine being a monopolist transitter of gas....Like the meerkat in this amusing advert says: "Seempels".
Thursday, October 20, 2011
Why Tymoshenko is the deal-breaker..
"The European Union said on Thursday it had reached a technical agreement with Ukraine on a free trade deal, but linked its implementation on Kyiv's treatment of the jailed former prime minister and opposition leader, Yulia Tymoshenko."
Rather than a softer mattress and warmer radiator..pineapple chunks for dessert..hot cocoa before bed....'treatment' surely means release from jail, no?
Yesterday, president Yanukovych was interviewed on television. He commented only once, unprompted, on the Tymoshenko fiasco:
"[As for the] Tymoshenko case ... I am convinced that time will pass - and everything will stand its own place. If she is innocent - the court will make a decision, and this will be the decision of the court. If she is guilty - she will bear responsibility. So I do not even want to comment. This process will, at the end of the day, eventually come to an end."
Tymoshenko, as every man and his dog knows, was found guilty on October 11th and sentenced to seven years in jail for her crimes, so how come the "if she is innocent"?
It seems to me Yanukovych's Freudian slip reveals she is being used a bargaining chip or hostage in the Russian vector/EU vector game, while at the same time her political career is being destroyed - she may well be innocent after all...
Maybe he even admires his adverary. Unlike him and his buddies she did not run for the hills like a timid rabbit, as they did in 2004, even though this was suggested to her by intermediaries..
Some commentators, with the best interests of Ukraine at heart, and out of geopolitical considerations, say the EU should perhaps cast a blind eye onto what is going on in the country and allow Ukraine to sign up to the club.
I googled "Why was the EU founded?" This is what came up top :
"The overall aim of the EEC/EU, since its foundation in 1958, is to promote peace; the values of human rights; democracy; equality; the rule of law; and the well-being of its peoples. These values are the bedrock of the EU’s work and its role in the world....
The European Union is a unique body. No other part of the world has such an organisation whose mission is to bring countries together to pursue shared interests and values."
Nothing to do with geopolitics, my friends.
Rather than a softer mattress and warmer radiator..pineapple chunks for dessert..hot cocoa before bed....'treatment' surely means release from jail, no?
Yesterday, president Yanukovych was interviewed on television. He commented only once, unprompted, on the Tymoshenko fiasco:
"[As for the] Tymoshenko case ... I am convinced that time will pass - and everything will stand its own place. If she is innocent - the court will make a decision, and this will be the decision of the court. If she is guilty - she will bear responsibility. So I do not even want to comment. This process will, at the end of the day, eventually come to an end."
Tymoshenko, as every man and his dog knows, was found guilty on October 11th and sentenced to seven years in jail for her crimes, so how come the "if she is innocent"?
It seems to me Yanukovych's Freudian slip reveals she is being used a bargaining chip or hostage in the Russian vector/EU vector game, while at the same time her political career is being destroyed - she may well be innocent after all...
Maybe he even admires his adverary. Unlike him and his buddies she did not run for the hills like a timid rabbit, as they did in 2004, even though this was suggested to her by intermediaries..
Some commentators, with the best interests of Ukraine at heart, and out of geopolitical considerations, say the EU should perhaps cast a blind eye onto what is going on in the country and allow Ukraine to sign up to the club.
I googled "Why was the EU founded?" This is what came up top :
"The overall aim of the EEC/EU, since its foundation in 1958, is to promote peace; the values of human rights; democracy; equality; the rule of law; and the well-being of its peoples. These values are the bedrock of the EU’s work and its role in the world....
The European Union is a unique body. No other part of the world has such an organisation whose mission is to bring countries together to pursue shared interests and values."
Nothing to do with geopolitics, my friends.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
What 'Der Spiegel' thinks about Ukraine..
Check out:
"Ukraine Retreats to a Dark Past"
"Ukraine May Soon Have Pariah Status Like Belarus"
Cf. President Yanukovych today claiming: "Ukraine's reputation is gradually growing in the world. We are returning respect, we are returning trust".
"Ukraine Retreats to a Dark Past"
"Ukraine May Soon Have Pariah Status Like Belarus"
Cf. President Yanukovych today claiming: "Ukraine's reputation is gradually growing in the world. We are returning respect, we are returning trust".
Yanuk fails marshmallow experiment
Many years ago, in the now-famous Stanford marshmallow experiment, children were led into a room, empty of distractions, where a treat of their choice (Oreo cookie, marshmallow, or pretzel stick) was placed on a table, by a chair. The children could eat the marshmallow, the researchers said, but if they waited for fifteen minutes without giving in to the temptation, they would be rewarded with a second marshmallow.
Years later the experiment revealed a strong correlation between a children's capacity for deferred gratification and their success in later life.
As Oleksandr Motyl points out, president Yanukovych could have waited for EU association and free-trade agreements to be signed late this year before 'setting the dogs' onto Tymoshenko. She posed no threat to the president, and the country's organs of power were all under his firm grip.
He would have basked in the glory of successfully signed agreements, and the future would have looked rosy. There would have been plenty of time to 'deal with' the Tymoshenko problem if there were to be any sign of uplift in her ratings.
Playing off the EU against Russia in order to obtain the best possible result for his country makes some kind of sense, but why mess all of this up with the Tymoshenko trial and sentencing?
The man couldn't wait to gobble up the fluffy marshmallow..
Years later the experiment revealed a strong correlation between a children's capacity for deferred gratification and their success in later life.
As Oleksandr Motyl points out, president Yanukovych could have waited for EU association and free-trade agreements to be signed late this year before 'setting the dogs' onto Tymoshenko. She posed no threat to the president, and the country's organs of power were all under his firm grip.
He would have basked in the glory of successfully signed agreements, and the future would have looked rosy. There would have been plenty of time to 'deal with' the Tymoshenko problem if there were to be any sign of uplift in her ratings.
Playing off the EU against Russia in order to obtain the best possible result for his country makes some kind of sense, but why mess all of this up with the Tymoshenko trial and sentencing?
The man couldn't wait to gobble up the fluffy marshmallow..
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Three scenarios from 'Segodnya'
Today's big-selling, PoR-leaning 'Segodnya' newspaper runs a story which depicts three scenarios "that the West could choose" for Ukraine, following Yulia Tymoshenko's inprisonment.
The first is that the furore will die down quite soon and Tymoshenko will soon be forgotten - the likelyhood of such scenario is 60%, they suggest. The Europeans and the USA will not want to push Ukraine too far into isolation or into Russia's hands, for geo-political reasons, and some EU countries [apparently?] fear loss of business opportunities. As a result, the association and free trade agreements with the EU will be signed. Closer euro-integration will [hopefully?] speed up democratisation processes in Ukraine. Naturally, this is the scenario envisaged by the president and his advisers.
The second is the 'Belarusisation'of Ukraine. 'Segodnya' suggests a 30% likelyhood and claims Germany, France and Italy are perhaps not too keen on closer ties between Ukraine and the EU, because of their relationships with Russia. They could even support Belarus-type sanctions against Ukraine. The Kremlin's position vis a vis Ukraine's would become stronger in such circumstances.
The final scenario, which they say is 'hypothetical', is the toppling of Yanukovych - 10% likelyhood. There is nowhere near a critical mass of dissatisfaction, there is no figurehead to lead such mass movement of discontent, and the USA in particular is not prepared to support any possible opposition forces. Segodnya admits though, that dissatisfaction with the authorities within a significant portion of society is near a critical level.
The latent assumption in this piece is that Tymoshenko remains behind bars, even though Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Brussels today optimistically predicted she would be freed on 18th October".
In your humble blogger's opinion, for what it is worth, if Yatsenyuk is wrong about Tymoshenko's release, the chances of the first two proposed scenarios are 30-60 rather than 60-30....But the fact that 'Segodnya' speculate at all on these matters is significant..
Now if Tymoshenko were to be released...
Update - WSJ report president Yanukovych told them he has given her the 'thumbs down'...
European leaders will interpret his declaration as a snub and i.m.o. will respond robustly..
Similar from Bloomberg.
The first is that the furore will die down quite soon and Tymoshenko will soon be forgotten - the likelyhood of such scenario is 60%, they suggest. The Europeans and the USA will not want to push Ukraine too far into isolation or into Russia's hands, for geo-political reasons, and some EU countries [apparently?] fear loss of business opportunities. As a result, the association and free trade agreements with the EU will be signed. Closer euro-integration will [hopefully?] speed up democratisation processes in Ukraine. Naturally, this is the scenario envisaged by the president and his advisers.
The second is the 'Belarusisation'of Ukraine. 'Segodnya' suggests a 30% likelyhood and claims Germany, France and Italy are perhaps not too keen on closer ties between Ukraine and the EU, because of their relationships with Russia. They could even support Belarus-type sanctions against Ukraine. The Kremlin's position vis a vis Ukraine's would become stronger in such circumstances.
The final scenario, which they say is 'hypothetical', is the toppling of Yanukovych - 10% likelyhood. There is nowhere near a critical mass of dissatisfaction, there is no figurehead to lead such mass movement of discontent, and the USA in particular is not prepared to support any possible opposition forces. Segodnya admits though, that dissatisfaction with the authorities within a significant portion of society is near a critical level.
The latent assumption in this piece is that Tymoshenko remains behind bars, even though Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Brussels today optimistically predicted she would be freed on 18th October".
In your humble blogger's opinion, for what it is worth, if Yatsenyuk is wrong about Tymoshenko's release, the chances of the first two proposed scenarios are 30-60 rather than 60-30....But the fact that 'Segodnya' speculate at all on these matters is significant..
Now if Tymoshenko were to be released...
Update - WSJ report president Yanukovych told them he has given her the 'thumbs down'...
European leaders will interpret his declaration as a snub and i.m.o. will respond robustly..
Similar from Bloomberg.
Sunday, October 16, 2011
Make or break week for Ukraine?
From regular 'Economist' commenter "Didomyk":
Oct 14th 2011 7:12 GMT .
Ukraine's future relations with the West and specifically with EU, as well as with Putin's Russia, will be shaped by the results of four significant events that are scheduled over the next week or so:
(1)Yanukovych will meet Russia's President Medvedev in Donetsk on Oct. 18th [Ukrainian-Russian Inter-regional Economic Forum..LEvko] for further talks on his attempt to get lower prices for Russian gas. Will Russia show more flexibility both in terms of gas pricing (now tied to crude oil prices) and in terms of a requirement to pay for a fixed annual gas volume irrespective of the actual consumption ? Will Medvedev continue to link possible reduction of gas prices to Russian control over Ukraine's gas transmission system ? Is there a room for a compromise on Ukraine's proposals for a tri-party control (Ukraine-Russia-EUnion) over the operations of the transmission system over a long term ?
(2)On Oct.18th Ukraine's Parliament will continue to consider changes to the 50 years old Soviet criminal code that remains valid in Ukraine. The main issue is decriminalization of political decisions taken by political leaders who were confronted with limited options. In a democratic system their errors in judgement, if any, are subject to the electorate's vote on the election day, not to criminal proceedings of the type Tymoshenko has been subject of.
(3)Yanukovych is planning to visit Brussels on Oct. 20th [nothing about this on prezza's official site yet] hoping to advance bilateral talks on the free-trade agreement. Opinions have been voiced calling for EU leaders to boycott Yanukovych until Tymoshenko is set free and the verdict annuled. Others possible options would be to meet with Yanukovych and to conclude EU-Ukraine free-trade negotiations, while making it very clear that ratification of the agreement will be suspended unless Yanukovych demonstrates a substantial change to his policy of using courts in oppressing opposition.
(4)An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit Kyiv next week to negotiate a resumption of an urgently needed lending program. Last March the IMF froze loans after disbursing $3.4 billion of a possible $15.6 billion approved for Ukraine, because Yanukovych' government did not meet budget austerity requirements.
The willingness of the IMF team to approve further disbursements will reflect a consensus in Brussels, Paris, London, New York, etc. to assist Ukraine in implementing further economic reforms..
Oct 14th 2011 7:12 GMT .
Ukraine's future relations with the West and specifically with EU, as well as with Putin's Russia, will be shaped by the results of four significant events that are scheduled over the next week or so:
(1)Yanukovych will meet Russia's President Medvedev in Donetsk on Oct. 18th [Ukrainian-Russian Inter-regional Economic Forum..LEvko] for further talks on his attempt to get lower prices for Russian gas. Will Russia show more flexibility both in terms of gas pricing (now tied to crude oil prices) and in terms of a requirement to pay for a fixed annual gas volume irrespective of the actual consumption ? Will Medvedev continue to link possible reduction of gas prices to Russian control over Ukraine's gas transmission system ? Is there a room for a compromise on Ukraine's proposals for a tri-party control (Ukraine-Russia-EUnion) over the operations of the transmission system over a long term ?
(2)On Oct.18th Ukraine's Parliament will continue to consider changes to the 50 years old Soviet criminal code that remains valid in Ukraine. The main issue is decriminalization of political decisions taken by political leaders who were confronted with limited options. In a democratic system their errors in judgement, if any, are subject to the electorate's vote on the election day, not to criminal proceedings of the type Tymoshenko has been subject of.
(3)Yanukovych is planning to visit Brussels on Oct. 20th [nothing about this on prezza's official site yet] hoping to advance bilateral talks on the free-trade agreement. Opinions have been voiced calling for EU leaders to boycott Yanukovych until Tymoshenko is set free and the verdict annuled. Others possible options would be to meet with Yanukovych and to conclude EU-Ukraine free-trade negotiations, while making it very clear that ratification of the agreement will be suspended unless Yanukovych demonstrates a substantial change to his policy of using courts in oppressing opposition.
(4)An IMF delegation is scheduled to visit Kyiv next week to negotiate a resumption of an urgently needed lending program. Last March the IMF froze loans after disbursing $3.4 billion of a possible $15.6 billion approved for Ukraine, because Yanukovych' government did not meet budget austerity requirements.
The willingness of the IMF team to approve further disbursements will reflect a consensus in Brussels, Paris, London, New York, etc. to assist Ukraine in implementing further economic reforms..
Saturday, October 15, 2011
Tickets to west torn up
The chances of signing association and free trade agreements with the EU are rapidly diminishing. If Tymoshenko is not released from prison very, very soon, the agreements will not be signed and the country's hopes for closer ties with Europe will be in tatters.
Watching last Friday's political shows, there was little sign from PoR spokesman of any possible back down and attacks on the 'devil-woman' Tymoshenko were as vituperative as ever. Even if she were to be released, the persecution will continue...she will be be continually hounded, called in for questioning, hassled, arrested...
On the day of the verdict and sentencing of Tymoshenko her supporters on the street were outnumbered by black-helmeted 'space cadets' - why should the president feel threatened?
'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' claims Yanukovych finally decided on Thursday to lock up Tymoshenko despite the shitstorm from abroad. They suggest the consequences for the economy of Ukraine if the country turns its back on the EU, could be "catastrophic" .
As the excellent political commentator Vitali Portnikov says, Ukraine has just entered the Eurasian Sovok world without even signing any documents. Their pass card to the Eurasian Union was Tymoshenko's verdict.
LEvko's tip: Dump hryvnya a.s.a.p.
p.s. Big-selling "Donbass" newspaper asks its online readers whether Tymoshenko's sentence was fair.
40% say Yes - she is guilty
53% say No - it's all politics..
Well over 2000 respondents so far....
Watching last Friday's political shows, there was little sign from PoR spokesman of any possible back down and attacks on the 'devil-woman' Tymoshenko were as vituperative as ever. Even if she were to be released, the persecution will continue...she will be be continually hounded, called in for questioning, hassled, arrested...
On the day of the verdict and sentencing of Tymoshenko her supporters on the street were outnumbered by black-helmeted 'space cadets' - why should the president feel threatened?
'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' claims Yanukovych finally decided on Thursday to lock up Tymoshenko despite the shitstorm from abroad. They suggest the consequences for the economy of Ukraine if the country turns its back on the EU, could be "catastrophic" .
As the excellent political commentator Vitali Portnikov says, Ukraine has just entered the Eurasian Sovok world without even signing any documents. Their pass card to the Eurasian Union was Tymoshenko's verdict.
LEvko's tip: Dump hryvnya a.s.a.p.
p.s. Big-selling "Donbass" newspaper asks its online readers whether Tymoshenko's sentence was fair.
40% say Yes - she is guilty
53% say No - it's all politics..
Well over 2000 respondents so far....
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Hanging on to the money, above all else
One curious aspect of Yulia Tymosenko' criminal sentence was the ridiculously huge fine of $188 million that accompanied the 7 year stretch. It was set as reimbursement for alleged losses caused by the 2009 gas contract she had negotiated with Putin.
It's possible that she has this sort of cash salted away on some far and distant shore..but not in Ukraine, and not anywhere it would be easily accessible. So what happens if she does not pay the fine?
Imposition of such a gigantic financial penalty onto a single person seems slightly absurd, particularly as Tymoshenko was not accused of corruption or self-enrichment in the case against her, yet Yanukovych and his pals seem to take a different view. Maybe they think this was her under-the-table 'rake-off' from the 2009 gas deal?
Fuel and Energy minister Yuriy Boyko says the fine money is to be used to pay for Russian gas, [ho,ho, ho..] and Yanukovych himself, apparently raised the issue of a fine with Angela Merkel when the met a few days ago in Warsaw.
There have been a couple of unconfirmed reports that he caved in and agreed to Merkel's insistence he release Tymoshenko, but remained adamant Tymoshenko 'compensate the state' for the alleged $188 million loss. Merkel responded: "We're not in a market here where you can haggle!" and on this their conversation ended. Maybe she took this as a hint from Yanukovych she pays Tymoshenko's fine?
Yelena Bondarenko, a prominent PoR spokesperson, is of the opinion that if Tymoshenko doesn't pay up then she should serve her full sentence. "Decriminalisation is not amnesty...whoever is guilty of damage should either compensate the damage, or serve time".
I think the mercantile approach is revealing of Yanukovych's world view. Values, justice etc. count for nothing. Money and wealth, grabbing it, stealing it, taking it away from enemies, is everything. Just like in the gangster movies - throw them in the cellar until they get the money back.
Anyone who is mega rich in Ukraine [including Tymoshenko] made their money in the 'wild east' period - the early and mid nineties. If the country is to make any progress these people, who entered politics merely to protect their wealth and interests, have to sort out their differences and call a truce if the country is to make any progress.
The big dilemma for Yanukovych is that if he releases Tymoshenko now the chances of him and associates hanging on to wealth they themselves have amassed decreases markedly. It is dawning on them that they could be in big, big trouble in a year or two's time when their political fortunes fade and her's rise..Remember how they all bolted abroad after the O.R.? [This option may now be narrowing.] But the massive anti-Yanukovych bombardment from the West may yet turn out to be counterproductive..There has been a bit of a rally by PoR spokesmen today to protect the 'vozhd' from foreign critics...the UESU charges against her have been reanimated... and she is still behind bars..
Yanukovych today profoundly commented on the Tymoshenko affair thus: "If such a situation occurred in any other country, even the most democratic, no-one would be say anything there, [no-one would] even open their mouth"....but Ukraine is being examined "under a microscope."
Clearly this man 'knows his stuff'.
Maybe 'Lucky' Alex from Belarus has persuaded him being a pariah is not that bad after all..
It's possible that she has this sort of cash salted away on some far and distant shore..but not in Ukraine, and not anywhere it would be easily accessible. So what happens if she does not pay the fine?
Imposition of such a gigantic financial penalty onto a single person seems slightly absurd, particularly as Tymoshenko was not accused of corruption or self-enrichment in the case against her, yet Yanukovych and his pals seem to take a different view. Maybe they think this was her under-the-table 'rake-off' from the 2009 gas deal?
Fuel and Energy minister Yuriy Boyko says the fine money is to be used to pay for Russian gas, [ho,ho, ho..] and Yanukovych himself, apparently raised the issue of a fine with Angela Merkel when the met a few days ago in Warsaw.
There have been a couple of unconfirmed reports that he caved in and agreed to Merkel's insistence he release Tymoshenko, but remained adamant Tymoshenko 'compensate the state' for the alleged $188 million loss. Merkel responded: "We're not in a market here where you can haggle!" and on this their conversation ended. Maybe she took this as a hint from Yanukovych she pays Tymoshenko's fine?
Yelena Bondarenko, a prominent PoR spokesperson, is of the opinion that if Tymoshenko doesn't pay up then she should serve her full sentence. "Decriminalisation is not amnesty...whoever is guilty of damage should either compensate the damage, or serve time".
I think the mercantile approach is revealing of Yanukovych's world view. Values, justice etc. count for nothing. Money and wealth, grabbing it, stealing it, taking it away from enemies, is everything. Just like in the gangster movies - throw them in the cellar until they get the money back.
Anyone who is mega rich in Ukraine [including Tymoshenko] made their money in the 'wild east' period - the early and mid nineties. If the country is to make any progress these people, who entered politics merely to protect their wealth and interests, have to sort out their differences and call a truce if the country is to make any progress.
The big dilemma for Yanukovych is that if he releases Tymoshenko now the chances of him and associates hanging on to wealth they themselves have amassed decreases markedly. It is dawning on them that they could be in big, big trouble in a year or two's time when their political fortunes fade and her's rise..Remember how they all bolted abroad after the O.R.? [This option may now be narrowing.] But the massive anti-Yanukovych bombardment from the West may yet turn out to be counterproductive..There has been a bit of a rally by PoR spokesmen today to protect the 'vozhd' from foreign critics...the UESU charges against her have been reanimated... and she is still behind bars..
Yanukovych today profoundly commented on the Tymoshenko affair thus: "If such a situation occurred in any other country, even the most democratic, no-one would be say anything there, [no-one would] even open their mouth"....but Ukraine is being examined "under a microscope."
Clearly this man 'knows his stuff'.
Maybe 'Lucky' Alex from Belarus has persuaded him being a pariah is not that bad after all..
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Yanuk not welcome in Brussels [updated]
As I predicted in by previous blog...
Today's 'Kommersant' newspaper reports that according to a source: '"Right now there his a high probability that Jose Manuel Barrosso [president of the Eurocommission] will refuse to meet Yanukovych [next week in Brussels]."
They were told by EU representatives: 'We've had it up to here with the actions of Ukraine authorites'.
A Polish Euro-deputy was blunt when addressing the Ukrainian Foreign Minister: 'Mr Hryshchenko, you have betrayed [us] and made a laughing stock of your friends in the EU!'
Prominent German Euro-deputy Elmar Brock claimed: "The visit of Yanukovych possibly may not take place."
Update: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs are getting their excuses in early to attenuate any political fiasco resulting from Yanuk's possible un-invitation, by claiming that: "The 20th October date was not declared officially. We are preparing for the visit and are interested it takes place as quickly as possible. But everything depends on the dynamics of the Association Agreement negotiation process."
LEvko's fears that even if the meetings take place next week, and even Association Agreements are signed, Ukraine's window of opportunity for Eurointegration may have now closed.. The moment may have passed. Any enthusiasm for it amongst EU members and friends has now drained away...
Today's 'Kommersant' newspaper reports that according to a source: '"Right now there his a high probability that Jose Manuel Barrosso [president of the Eurocommission] will refuse to meet Yanukovych [next week in Brussels]."
They were told by EU representatives: 'We've had it up to here with the actions of Ukraine authorites'.
A Polish Euro-deputy was blunt when addressing the Ukrainian Foreign Minister: 'Mr Hryshchenko, you have betrayed [us] and made a laughing stock of your friends in the EU!'
Prominent German Euro-deputy Elmar Brock claimed: "The visit of Yanukovych possibly may not take place."
Update: The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs are getting their excuses in early to attenuate any political fiasco resulting from Yanuk's possible un-invitation, by claiming that: "The 20th October date was not declared officially. We are preparing for the visit and are interested it takes place as quickly as possible. But everything depends on the dynamics of the Association Agreement negotiation process."
LEvko's fears that even if the meetings take place next week, and even Association Agreements are signed, Ukraine's window of opportunity for Eurointegration may have now closed.. The moment may have passed. Any enthusiasm for it amongst EU members and friends has now drained away...
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
No duty-frees for Yanuk in Brussels next week?
Amongst the unprecedented tsunami of criticism from European leaders [these from the White House and the British Foreign Secretary are typical] there is one declaration that could hurt Yanukovych more than others.
He is scheduled to visit the European parliament in Brussels a week on Thursday - on 20th October. Elmar Brok, a well-known figure there and former Chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, says Ukraine must resolve the situation surrounding the Tymoshenko case before his visit. Other Euro-parliamentarians are already talking of cancelling his visit.
Yanukovych has been stringing along his European critics for several months now, misleading them with commitments of a 'soft landing' for Tymoshenko. Now that she has been sentenced he has been exposed a charlatan.
Today's attempts by Yanukovych to wriggle out of his responsibility for her imprisonment, declaring that this is not a final verdict because there's still an Appeal Court to which she can turn, and his attempt to blame an outdated legal system and his predecessor who instigated investigations against her, will not cut much ice because Ukraine's legal system, with its 99%+ conviction rate, is totally discredited already. The prosecutor's office, the Perchersk court..they are all his people.
Yanukovych will be feeling very satisfied right now having eliminated his biggest enemy from the field of battle. All the country's oligarchs must now bow before him -he can become as rich as they are - no other politician can challenge his power. But the concrete step of cancelling next week's visit to Brussels would hit Yanukovych harder than all of today's declarations of dismay and anger from world leaders..bring him back down to earth, at least a little.
Expect Yanukovych in that event to 'cry wolf' and threaten integration eastwards rather westward..
p.s. One commenter notes that the losses from Tymoshenko's 2009 gas deal would be as nothing compared to economic losses to Ukraine - lost exports, lost inward investment, lost remittances from Ukrainian's working abroad etc. that would result from cancellation of the planned association and free trade agreements. But would the Customs Union compensate? Hardly..With Russia everything is a zero-sum game..
He is scheduled to visit the European parliament in Brussels a week on Thursday - on 20th October. Elmar Brok, a well-known figure there and former Chairman of the European Parliament Committee on Foreign Affairs, says Ukraine must resolve the situation surrounding the Tymoshenko case before his visit. Other Euro-parliamentarians are already talking of cancelling his visit.
Yanukovych has been stringing along his European critics for several months now, misleading them with commitments of a 'soft landing' for Tymoshenko. Now that she has been sentenced he has been exposed a charlatan.
Today's attempts by Yanukovych to wriggle out of his responsibility for her imprisonment, declaring that this is not a final verdict because there's still an Appeal Court to which she can turn, and his attempt to blame an outdated legal system and his predecessor who instigated investigations against her, will not cut much ice because Ukraine's legal system, with its 99%+ conviction rate, is totally discredited already. The prosecutor's office, the Perchersk court..they are all his people.
Yanukovych will be feeling very satisfied right now having eliminated his biggest enemy from the field of battle. All the country's oligarchs must now bow before him -he can become as rich as they are - no other politician can challenge his power. But the concrete step of cancelling next week's visit to Brussels would hit Yanukovych harder than all of today's declarations of dismay and anger from world leaders..bring him back down to earth, at least a little.
Expect Yanukovych in that event to 'cry wolf' and threaten integration eastwards rather westward..
p.s. One commenter notes that the losses from Tymoshenko's 2009 gas deal would be as nothing compared to economic losses to Ukraine - lost exports, lost inward investment, lost remittances from Ukrainian's working abroad etc. that would result from cancellation of the planned association and free trade agreements. But would the Customs Union compensate? Hardly..With Russia everything is a zero-sum game..
EU to respond swiftly to Tymoshenko trial
Today a spokesman for EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxemburg said: "All the ministers expressed grave concern about the Tymoshenko case. It is clear that in the event of a deterioration in the situation it will be difficult to avoid delays in signing and ratifying the [association] agreement; " adding that the EU is following the case very closely, and as soon as a verdict is announced, they will study it and respond as quickly as possible.
On September 12th Tymoshenko's trial was adjourned for two weeks - until September 27th. Then on the 30th of that month the trial was again adjourned until Tuesday 11th October, when the court's verdict is expected.
Over the last four weeks the court has sat for only four days, during which lengthy concluding statements were delivered. This has given plenty of time for observers to sift through all of the evidence presented in the four-month trial, and thoroughly assess the entire proceedings.
So a swift response is certain...maybe even written already..
On September 12th Tymoshenko's trial was adjourned for two weeks - until September 27th. Then on the 30th of that month the trial was again adjourned until Tuesday 11th October, when the court's verdict is expected.
Over the last four weeks the court has sat for only four days, during which lengthy concluding statements were delivered. This has given plenty of time for observers to sift through all of the evidence presented in the four-month trial, and thoroughly assess the entire proceedings.
So a swift response is certain...maybe even written already..
Saturday, October 08, 2011
The case for Tymoshenko [video]
Watch this half hour video: "The trial of Yulia Tymoshenko. True story" here
Thursday, October 06, 2011
EU prospects damaged already
There has been much speculation lately that former PM Yulia Tymoshenko will be found guilty and sentenced next week; but by means of an artificially created mechanism of decriminalisation of portions of the law, she will be freed soon after.
This has lead to a commonly held view that: "The authorities will realize two strategic goals – preserve their political image, demonstrate strength and consistency by pronouncing Tymoshenko guilty, at the same time [the verdict] will be softened by the decriminalization after the trial to satisfy the Europeans,"
Commentators who propose such a view are mistaken. The political image of Ukraine's current rulers has already been serious damaged in the West, whatever the outcome of the Tymoshenko trial, because of the barrage of allegations voiced by European leaders and press over the last few months that the trial is politically motivated. The damage is difficult to quantify, but the country has certainly experienced terrible 'bad press' - no question about this. Prosecuting Tymoshenko has delivered little or no political gain domestically either.
The grubby face-saving decriminalisation maneouvres apparently 'forced' onto the Ukrainian authorities will not satisfy Europeans either because everyone is aware the motives for them are completely cynical. They merely leave a bad taste in the mouth.
The reason for the probably permanent damage to Ukraine's current authorities' reputation, and also to the country's medium term euro-integrational prospects, is that the case against Tymoshenko has been fundamentally weak. What should have been a showcase trial has turned into a catalogue of procedural errors, the judge has been biassed, and the defence has clearly not had a fair opportunity to challenge and test the evidence against them. This will all be supported and confirmed in the weeks to come by international monitoring groups. Hence the conclusion that the trial was concocted to eliminate a major political opponent.
However, having taken a pounding in recent weeks from European leaders at the YES conference and at the Eastern Parnership summit in Warsaw , Yanukovych may feel he has already taken the hardest knocks they can deliver. He suffers from the delusion that the EU needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs the EU so after Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced there will surely be a big temptation to say: 'Not so fast..not so fast...let's see what happens..' and keep Tymoshenko under lock and key. A final option to pardon her will always remain available of course, if the political heat gets too great..
If, and/or when Tymoshenko is released, her priority will be to ensure the West's attention is focussed on former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko's preposterous trial. Then there will be hearings in New York, and in the European court of Human rights..and appeal hearings in Ukraine..
Yanukovych should check out the press frenzy surrounding the return of Amanda Knox to the US, after her recent release from an Italian jail ...and draw parallels... imagine the welcome Tymoshenko will receive the next time she visits Brussels or Strasbourg..or even Moscow.
Now if she was a plain Jane...
p.s. Lots of aerial photos of Yanukovych's Mezhyhirya palace and grounds here
Remember, the man's overriding ambition is to be one of Europe's richest men..
Also photos of Yatsenyuk's and Tymoshenko's houses nearby..she apparently, ahem, 'rents' hers..
This has lead to a commonly held view that: "The authorities will realize two strategic goals – preserve their political image, demonstrate strength and consistency by pronouncing Tymoshenko guilty, at the same time [the verdict] will be softened by the decriminalization after the trial to satisfy the Europeans,"
Commentators who propose such a view are mistaken. The political image of Ukraine's current rulers has already been serious damaged in the West, whatever the outcome of the Tymoshenko trial, because of the barrage of allegations voiced by European leaders and press over the last few months that the trial is politically motivated. The damage is difficult to quantify, but the country has certainly experienced terrible 'bad press' - no question about this. Prosecuting Tymoshenko has delivered little or no political gain domestically either.
The grubby face-saving decriminalisation maneouvres apparently 'forced' onto the Ukrainian authorities will not satisfy Europeans either because everyone is aware the motives for them are completely cynical. They merely leave a bad taste in the mouth.
The reason for the probably permanent damage to Ukraine's current authorities' reputation, and also to the country's medium term euro-integrational prospects, is that the case against Tymoshenko has been fundamentally weak. What should have been a showcase trial has turned into a catalogue of procedural errors, the judge has been biassed, and the defence has clearly not had a fair opportunity to challenge and test the evidence against them. This will all be supported and confirmed in the weeks to come by international monitoring groups. Hence the conclusion that the trial was concocted to eliminate a major political opponent.
However, having taken a pounding in recent weeks from European leaders at the YES conference and at the Eastern Parnership summit in Warsaw , Yanukovych may feel he has already taken the hardest knocks they can deliver. He suffers from the delusion that the EU needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs the EU so after Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced there will surely be a big temptation to say: 'Not so fast..not so fast...let's see what happens..' and keep Tymoshenko under lock and key. A final option to pardon her will always remain available of course, if the political heat gets too great..
If, and/or when Tymoshenko is released, her priority will be to ensure the West's attention is focussed on former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko's preposterous trial. Then there will be hearings in New York, and in the European court of Human rights..and appeal hearings in Ukraine..
Yanukovych should check out the press frenzy surrounding the return of Amanda Knox to the US, after her recent release from an Italian jail ...and draw parallels... imagine the welcome Tymoshenko will receive the next time she visits Brussels or Strasbourg..or even Moscow.
Now if she was a plain Jane...
p.s. Lots of aerial photos of Yanukovych's Mezhyhirya palace and grounds here
Remember, the man's overriding ambition is to be one of Europe's richest men..
Also photos of Yatsenyuk's and Tymoshenko's houses nearby..she apparently, ahem, 'rents' hers..
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Ukies love expensive watches..
Probably Ukraine's best known television political talk-show host, Savik Shuster, was seen recently wearing a $120k Breguet wristwatch, of the kind so beloved by Ukraine's flashy elites..and also by missus Yanukovych.
He admitted to journalists the watch was a gift, but refused to say from whom...
absolutely astonishing...the man is compromised...but we knew that already..
Another recipent of an expensive watch, Presidential Administration spokesperson, Hanna Herman, seems to have been banished from the PA, and is now standing on the "naughty step". She did not accompany her boss Viktor Yanukovych to New York recently, and was not seen in Warsaw for the Eastern Partnership summit either, even though she had lived in Poland in the past and knows the scene there well. Someone had to take the blame for the plagiarised book fiasco and it was, allegedly, all her idea... Did she have to give the watch back too?
p.s. How far respect for the law in Ukraine lags behind that of normal European countries is well illustrated in this 10-minute video clip produced by brave journalist Dmytro Hnap.
In most countries the roads belong to everyone and can be freely used by everyone - but not in Ukraine. The video exposes the scandalous and rapidly-growing practice of businesses, banks, restaurants etc. reserving portions of the roadside for their own exclusive use by means of unofficial, [but official-looking] signage, and traffic cones. Invariably, hostile security men challenge any normal citizen who dares take advantage of his citizen's right to park his vehicle in such locations. Because all of this is illegal, in clear and direct contravention to Ukrainian traffic laws, one would think it would be easy to sort out, but no...Asking notoriously corrupt police officers to intervene is a complete waste of time. As the video clip reveals, some state agencies, including DAI traffic police themselves, deploy these despicable practices themselves...
If any vehicle dare get in the way of premier Azarov's motor cavalcade in Kyiv, it gets a whack from the baton of Azarov's bodyguards..Meanwhile thousands of the capital's commuters are stuck in public transport for half an hour at a time waiting for Azarov to pass..
When are people going to say, 'Enough is enough?'
He admitted to journalists the watch was a gift, but refused to say from whom...
absolutely astonishing...the man is compromised...but we knew that already..
Another recipent of an expensive watch, Presidential Administration spokesperson, Hanna Herman, seems to have been banished from the PA, and is now standing on the "naughty step". She did not accompany her boss Viktor Yanukovych to New York recently, and was not seen in Warsaw for the Eastern Partnership summit either, even though she had lived in Poland in the past and knows the scene there well. Someone had to take the blame for the plagiarised book fiasco and it was, allegedly, all her idea... Did she have to give the watch back too?
p.s. How far respect for the law in Ukraine lags behind that of normal European countries is well illustrated in this 10-minute video clip produced by brave journalist Dmytro Hnap.
In most countries the roads belong to everyone and can be freely used by everyone - but not in Ukraine. The video exposes the scandalous and rapidly-growing practice of businesses, banks, restaurants etc. reserving portions of the roadside for their own exclusive use by means of unofficial, [but official-looking] signage, and traffic cones. Invariably, hostile security men challenge any normal citizen who dares take advantage of his citizen's right to park his vehicle in such locations. Because all of this is illegal, in clear and direct contravention to Ukrainian traffic laws, one would think it would be easy to sort out, but no...Asking notoriously corrupt police officers to intervene is a complete waste of time. As the video clip reveals, some state agencies, including DAI traffic police themselves, deploy these despicable practices themselves...
If any vehicle dare get in the way of premier Azarov's motor cavalcade in Kyiv, it gets a whack from the baton of Azarov's bodyguards..Meanwhile thousands of the capital's commuters are stuck in public transport for half an hour at a time waiting for Azarov to pass..
When are people going to say, 'Enough is enough?'
Saturday, October 01, 2011
Late on comments
I have been a bit tardy on moderating some comments. Blogger hasn't been notifying me like it is supposed to. We'll see waht we can do about that.
Thanks for the comments. We live in interesting times and none more interesting than in the kingdom of Ukraine. (Kingdom because it is one and no parliamentaty reform is going to change that.)
Cheers all.
Thanks for the comments. We live in interesting times and none more interesting than in the kingdom of Ukraine. (Kingdom because it is one and no parliamentaty reform is going to change that.)
Cheers all.
Friday, September 30, 2011
"You have to be completely devoid of political sense of smell, not to sense tension"
Alexandra Kuzhel, deputy head of the Serhiy Tihipko-led 'Strong Ukraine', would not advise anyone to start up a business in Ukraine right now. She said this in a TV interview on Thursday.
Kuzhel is a prominent Ukrainian politician, a sometimes maverick spokesman for small and medium-size businesses, and former head of a government business development committee. She says she voted for Yanukovych in the last presidential elections.
"At the moment the average business is in one of two states. In the first a [criminal] case has been opened against you, and you are somehow, sorting out the issues, so you are not thinking about protest actions. In the other, your business is about to be taken away and you have to save it, and in this case you also will not be demonstrating either," said Kuzhel.
"Both states, however, can not last long, they will develop into something. Tension is growing," added Tigipko's deputy.
'Shock-jock' blogger Oles' Buzynya, who posts on the 'Segodnya' website, and is known for his anti Ukrainian nationalist, anti-'orange' views, [as well as the occasional fist fight on television] posted the following blog after last week's rowdy demonstrations by Afghan war veterans outside [and almost inside]the Verhovna Rada building.
Pre-revolutionary situation?
Last week Afghan war veterans nearly took the Verkhovna Rada by storm. The demonstration by the former took the government completely by surprise.
No political party sponsored this action. The "Afghans" arose themselves, because they wanted to take away their benefits, and you have to be blind not to see how many benefits are grabbed by those sitting under the dome of Parliament and how they are setting a budget for their own benefit.
The authorities feared Yulia, but it turns out that need to fear their own people, tired of waiting for improvements.
After the demonstations a fence has been hurredly constructed around the parliament building.
Buzyna continues: This fence is a symbol of the terrible boundary which now stands between the upper and lower classes. A pre-revolutionary situation has now arisen. But it is still not revolutionary..
Those at the top can still operate as before, separated from the electorate by a fence, and the lower classes in the main seem to have agreed to be patient for a while. But tension in the country is growing, like the mercury in a thermometer when flu takes a hold. The air smells of rebellion.
You have to be completely devoid of political sense of smell, not to sense it. No pickets can not save those who rule us if the economic situation worsens. Kiev includes 4 million new residents. These are people who who have to escape from the provinces that have been devastated over the past twenty years. They have nowhere else to run. They are young, strong and active. As soon as the economic collapse starts, they will take down not only the fence, but also the walls and government buildings.
And then talk that our labour force is too expensive will be redundant - it's our bureaucrats and oligarchs that are too expensive. And if the authorities continue to be more expensive than the people, this could be very costly for the government. And for the people too.
And 'UkrainianJournal.com' reports: Ukrainian farmers soon will hold protest rallies demanding the cancellation of the grain export duties in effect until the end of 2011, Hennadiy Novikov, head of the Agrarian Union of Ukraine said at the annual food industry forum in Kiev on Thursday. He said that the union's council made the decision at a meeting held earlier.
"Farmers have been brought to boiling-point. They decided to hold a rally: strikes and block roads with machinery," he said.
Novikov said that export duties have led to unprofitability of grain production.
p.s. Some excellent pieces of analysis entitled "Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw - fears and hopes"from easternpartnership.org here
Kuzhel is a prominent Ukrainian politician, a sometimes maverick spokesman for small and medium-size businesses, and former head of a government business development committee. She says she voted for Yanukovych in the last presidential elections.
"At the moment the average business is in one of two states. In the first a [criminal] case has been opened against you, and you are somehow, sorting out the issues, so you are not thinking about protest actions. In the other, your business is about to be taken away and you have to save it, and in this case you also will not be demonstrating either," said Kuzhel.
"Both states, however, can not last long, they will develop into something. Tension is growing," added Tigipko's deputy.
'Shock-jock' blogger Oles' Buzynya, who posts on the 'Segodnya' website, and is known for his anti Ukrainian nationalist, anti-'orange' views, [as well as the occasional fist fight on television] posted the following blog after last week's rowdy demonstrations by Afghan war veterans outside [and almost inside]the Verhovna Rada building.
Pre-revolutionary situation?
Last week Afghan war veterans nearly took the Verkhovna Rada by storm. The demonstration by the former took the government completely by surprise.
No political party sponsored this action. The "Afghans" arose themselves, because they wanted to take away their benefits, and you have to be blind not to see how many benefits are grabbed by those sitting under the dome of Parliament and how they are setting a budget for their own benefit.
The authorities feared Yulia, but it turns out that need to fear their own people, tired of waiting for improvements.
After the demonstations a fence has been hurredly constructed around the parliament building.
Buzyna continues: This fence is a symbol of the terrible boundary which now stands between the upper and lower classes. A pre-revolutionary situation has now arisen. But it is still not revolutionary..
Those at the top can still operate as before, separated from the electorate by a fence, and the lower classes in the main seem to have agreed to be patient for a while. But tension in the country is growing, like the mercury in a thermometer when flu takes a hold. The air smells of rebellion.
You have to be completely devoid of political sense of smell, not to sense it. No pickets can not save those who rule us if the economic situation worsens. Kiev includes 4 million new residents. These are people who who have to escape from the provinces that have been devastated over the past twenty years. They have nowhere else to run. They are young, strong and active. As soon as the economic collapse starts, they will take down not only the fence, but also the walls and government buildings.
And then talk that our labour force is too expensive will be redundant - it's our bureaucrats and oligarchs that are too expensive. And if the authorities continue to be more expensive than the people, this could be very costly for the government. And for the people too.
And 'UkrainianJournal.com' reports: Ukrainian farmers soon will hold protest rallies demanding the cancellation of the grain export duties in effect until the end of 2011, Hennadiy Novikov, head of the Agrarian Union of Ukraine said at the annual food industry forum in Kiev on Thursday. He said that the union's council made the decision at a meeting held earlier.
"Farmers have been brought to boiling-point. They decided to hold a rally: strikes and block roads with machinery," he said.
Novikov said that export duties have led to unprofitability of grain production.
p.s. Some excellent pieces of analysis entitled "Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw - fears and hopes"from easternpartnership.org here
Kiryeev's lunchtime phone call?
Just before midday today Rodion Kiryeev, the presiding judge in the Tymoshenko gas trial, announced that the court would be cleared when the court's sentence was to be passed. Only journalists [their cameras] and the trial's direct participants would be allowed to be present. This was interpreted by many present as confirmation of an guilty verdict.
All that remained before sentencing was a statement of conclusion from Tymoshenko, so the clear expectation was that the handing down of a sentence was soon to take place. A few minutes later the judge turned down the former PM's request for an adjournment until Monday to enable her to prepare this statement, but in response, declared a break until 2.00 p.m.
On return to the courtroom Tymoshenko again asked him for more time to prepare her final statement. Kiryeev's denied her request and proposed Tymoshenko continue with her last chance to address the court....
Tymoshenko retorted: "You have no other argument than that timetable painted for you by the president's administration."
Kiryeev then announced that he would be 'returning to his consulting rooms' until October 11th.
The impression throughout this week was that the court's verdict would be delivered today, so the only conclusion that can be reasonably drawn from this sequence of events is that, most likely, Kiryeev received a 'phone call during the lunch recess from Warsaw where Yanukovych had crumbled under the onslaught from EU leaders...
Had Kiryeev planned to adjourn proceeding until 11th October earlier, he wouldn't have made his statement about clearing the court before lunch would he?
All that remained before sentencing was a statement of conclusion from Tymoshenko, so the clear expectation was that the handing down of a sentence was soon to take place. A few minutes later the judge turned down the former PM's request for an adjournment until Monday to enable her to prepare this statement, but in response, declared a break until 2.00 p.m.
On return to the courtroom Tymoshenko again asked him for more time to prepare her final statement. Kiryeev's denied her request and proposed Tymoshenko continue with her last chance to address the court....
Tymoshenko retorted: "You have no other argument than that timetable painted for you by the president's administration."
Kiryeev then announced that he would be 'returning to his consulting rooms' until October 11th.
The impression throughout this week was that the court's verdict would be delivered today, so the only conclusion that can be reasonably drawn from this sequence of events is that, most likely, Kiryeev received a 'phone call during the lunch recess from Warsaw where Yanukovych had crumbled under the onslaught from EU leaders...
Had Kiryeev planned to adjourn proceeding until 11th October earlier, he wouldn't have made his statement about clearing the court before lunch would he?
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Yanukovych's gas losses in 2004 greatly exceeded those of Tymoshenko in 2009
While the Ukraine's media, and that of other countries is completely focused on the Tymoshenko gas case, 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', in a sober and well investigated recent article, revealed that Yanukovych and his close associates Yuriy Boyko and Andriy Kluyev, allegedly played fast and loose with Ukraine's laws and made decisions in the Russian-Ukrainian gas trade which cost the country many times more than the $190m Tymoshenko alleged 'screwed up' on.
In the April-August 2004, a Yanukovych-led cabinet of ministers concocted a scheme to repay Gazprom debts incurred by Ukraine between 1997 and 2000 for gas which was consumed but not paid for.
Earlier, on November 15th 2001, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified an "Agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Russian Government on additional measures to ensure the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine" (Law № 2797-III), in accordance with Art. 9 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which subsequently became part of national law.
This intergovernmental agreement determined a mechanism for repaying Naftohaz Ukraine's debt to the Gazprom by means of issue of standard corporate Eurobonds with maturity dates between 2004 to 2013. The agreement also defined the initial principal amount of debt - nearly $ 1.4 million. Later the Russian side determined the debt to be $ 1.26 billion, but with penalties, fines and other payments the final debt figure was set at $ 1.62 billion. For Ukraine, this scheme of gas debt repayment was most beneficial. It allowed repayment of all debts to be completed by 2013 in a gradual and predictable manner without worsening the financial situation of Naftohaz Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance appointed The Bank of New York [London] to handle the entire business, and international legal consultants White and Case to provide oversight.
However, as subsequent events showed, the decision taken later by top Ukrainian officials, in clear violation of the law, resulted in Ukraine being saddled with huge additional costs.
Gazprom never fully accepted the intergovernmentally agreed method of settling the unpaid debt, and during the protocol negotiations of August 6, 2002 between Naftohaz and Gazprom, the-then Naftohaz chairman Yuriy Boiko and deputy chairman of Gazprom, Alexander Ryazanov nominated the Russian VneshEkonomBank (VEB) as sole financial consultant in this matter; legal counsellors White & Case were added into the mix. They began to implement what was to be a disastrous plan to change the scheme of repayment from Eurobonds to pure cash.
White & Case warned Naftohaz that the new plan was far from optimal for settling its debt with Gazprom, and that risks were involved. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Economy and European Integration of Ukraine, and Ukrainian tax authorities all protested too, but Yuriy Boiko and the-then Deputy Prime Minister, Andriy Klyuev ignored all these objections and continued to do away with the fixed repayment plan, which had also included an early settlement of debt option.
Naftohaz Ukraine chiefs then 'legalised' a new mechanism which they had set up jointly with Gazprom and VEB [whose Supervisory Board Chairman, incidentally, was Vladimir Putin].
Naftohaz's board agreed to Gazprom's proposal to transfer all of their debt (the principal sum, penalties, fines and arbitration collection) to VneshEkonomBank, contrary to the previously developed scheme. This was all approved by a resolution of the Cabinet of Ukraine № 1002 of 06.08.2004. But 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' asks the question: Was the law violated when the-then Prime Minister V. Yanukovych, signed the allegedly illegal resolution?
According to this Cabinet resolution, Gazprom gave Naftohaz Ukraine an advance of $ 1.25 billion as partial payment for transit of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory for the period 2005-2009.
As a result, Ukraine would have pay for the 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year [the cost equivalent of transiting Russian gas to Europe] for those five years out of its own pocket, in exchange for the cancellation of the debt from the previous decade when gas cost $50 per thousand cubic metres. [A major portion of the total cost of transiting gas is the price of the gas used to drive the gas turbine pumps situated along the length of the pipeline.]
However, in the period between 2006 to 2009 gas prices rose from $ 90 to $ 450 dollars for thousand cubic metres, so Yanukovych's fiddling of the initial 2002 agreement cost Ukrainian consumers an additional several billion dollars...
Tymoshenko's deal, made under duress in 2009, for which she may be jailed for seven years, allegedly caused losses of under $200 million..
LEvko thinks the date of the Cabinet of Ministers' resolution is interesting...there have been many allegations, e.g. in Andrew Wilson's "Ukraine's Orange Revolution", that Russia spent between $ 600 and 900 million on Yanukovych's 2004 presidential election campaign, a portion of this allegedly channeled via Gazprom and Naftohaz..
Update: Excellent analysis from Anders Aslund in 'Moscow Times' on the current Ukraine/EU/Russia situation here
In the April-August 2004, a Yanukovych-led cabinet of ministers concocted a scheme to repay Gazprom debts incurred by Ukraine between 1997 and 2000 for gas which was consumed but not paid for.
Earlier, on November 15th 2001, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine ratified an "Agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the Russian Government on additional measures to ensure the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine" (Law № 2797-III), in accordance with Art. 9 of the Constitution of Ukraine, which subsequently became part of national law.
This intergovernmental agreement determined a mechanism for repaying Naftohaz Ukraine's debt to the Gazprom by means of issue of standard corporate Eurobonds with maturity dates between 2004 to 2013. The agreement also defined the initial principal amount of debt - nearly $ 1.4 million. Later the Russian side determined the debt to be $ 1.26 billion, but with penalties, fines and other payments the final debt figure was set at $ 1.62 billion. For Ukraine, this scheme of gas debt repayment was most beneficial. It allowed repayment of all debts to be completed by 2013 in a gradual and predictable manner without worsening the financial situation of Naftohaz Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance appointed The Bank of New York [London] to handle the entire business, and international legal consultants White and Case to provide oversight.
However, as subsequent events showed, the decision taken later by top Ukrainian officials, in clear violation of the law, resulted in Ukraine being saddled with huge additional costs.
Gazprom never fully accepted the intergovernmentally agreed method of settling the unpaid debt, and during the protocol negotiations of August 6, 2002 between Naftohaz and Gazprom, the-then Naftohaz chairman Yuriy Boiko and deputy chairman of Gazprom, Alexander Ryazanov nominated the Russian VneshEkonomBank (VEB) as sole financial consultant in this matter; legal counsellors White & Case were added into the mix. They began to implement what was to be a disastrous plan to change the scheme of repayment from Eurobonds to pure cash.
White & Case warned Naftohaz that the new plan was far from optimal for settling its debt with Gazprom, and that risks were involved. The Ukrainian Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Justice, the Ministry of Economy and European Integration of Ukraine, and Ukrainian tax authorities all protested too, but Yuriy Boiko and the-then Deputy Prime Minister, Andriy Klyuev ignored all these objections and continued to do away with the fixed repayment plan, which had also included an early settlement of debt option.
Naftohaz Ukraine chiefs then 'legalised' a new mechanism which they had set up jointly with Gazprom and VEB [whose Supervisory Board Chairman, incidentally, was Vladimir Putin].
Naftohaz's board agreed to Gazprom's proposal to transfer all of their debt (the principal sum, penalties, fines and arbitration collection) to VneshEkonomBank, contrary to the previously developed scheme. This was all approved by a resolution of the Cabinet of Ukraine № 1002 of 06.08.2004. But 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' asks the question: Was the law violated when the-then Prime Minister V. Yanukovych, signed the allegedly illegal resolution?
According to this Cabinet resolution, Gazprom gave Naftohaz Ukraine an advance of $ 1.25 billion as partial payment for transit of Russian natural gas across Ukrainian territory for the period 2005-2009.
As a result, Ukraine would have pay for the 5 billion cubic meters of gas per year [the cost equivalent of transiting Russian gas to Europe] for those five years out of its own pocket, in exchange for the cancellation of the debt from the previous decade when gas cost $50 per thousand cubic metres. [A major portion of the total cost of transiting gas is the price of the gas used to drive the gas turbine pumps situated along the length of the pipeline.]
However, in the period between 2006 to 2009 gas prices rose from $ 90 to $ 450 dollars for thousand cubic metres, so Yanukovych's fiddling of the initial 2002 agreement cost Ukrainian consumers an additional several billion dollars...
Tymoshenko's deal, made under duress in 2009, for which she may be jailed for seven years, allegedly caused losses of under $200 million..
LEvko thinks the date of the Cabinet of Ministers' resolution is interesting...there have been many allegations, e.g. in Andrew Wilson's "Ukraine's Orange Revolution", that Russia spent between $ 600 and 900 million on Yanukovych's 2004 presidential election campaign, a portion of this allegedly channeled via Gazprom and Naftohaz..
Update: Excellent analysis from Anders Aslund in 'Moscow Times' on the current Ukraine/EU/Russia situation here
Make your mind up time approaching - East or West?
Summary of comments made by Mykola Knyazhitsky, Director-General and a presenter of the TVi television company during a public debate on Ukraine's geopolitical choice:
He was sure the euro-integrational aspirations of Ukraine's current authorities is wholly egotistical in nature, intended to benefit PoR's oligarch sponsors. The desire to co-operate with Europe is driven solely in order to benefit their personal economic schemes, and the values and institutions essential to fully integrate into European society are of no interest to the government or president.
Nevertheless, the time has come for the Ukrainian nation to finally make up its mind. The country must decide whether it wants to live under the paradigm of a Byzantine court, as adopted by modern Russia, or strive to develop a European vector with its values of democracy, freedom and justice.
Before making a final decision, the country should reflect on the fact that there is not one undemocratic country in the EU, and there is not one democratic country in the Customs Union.
So...sukhari*, or oranges for Tymoshenko?
*dried bread crusts.. a reference to going to prison in Russia and Ukraine
He was sure the euro-integrational aspirations of Ukraine's current authorities is wholly egotistical in nature, intended to benefit PoR's oligarch sponsors. The desire to co-operate with Europe is driven solely in order to benefit their personal economic schemes, and the values and institutions essential to fully integrate into European society are of no interest to the government or president.
Nevertheless, the time has come for the Ukrainian nation to finally make up its mind. The country must decide whether it wants to live under the paradigm of a Byzantine court, as adopted by modern Russia, or strive to develop a European vector with its values of democracy, freedom and justice.
Before making a final decision, the country should reflect on the fact that there is not one undemocratic country in the EU, and there is not one democratic country in the Customs Union.
So...sukhari*, or oranges for Tymoshenko?
*dried bread crusts.. a reference to going to prison in Russia and Ukraine
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Ukraine's leading lights try hard in Brussels, but Yanik more interested in the money
From European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy, Štefan Füle's speech at conference: "Ukraine 20 years on: challenges for the future" European Policy Center Brussels, 21 September 2011
"There has been a lot of good news about Ukraine in the last twenty years. Unfortunately there have also been some difficult moments, which have brought the wrong kind of publicity. We are living through such a moment, and there are some basic problems which all of Ukraine’s key partners want to see addressed. Its ability to successfully overcome these problems would give a strong incentive to further consolidate the rule of law in the entire region. I know that - with the right will -Ukraine can surmount these obstacles, which are creating so many questions right now between us.
As I explained in Yalta, the on-going trials against opposition politicians appear to be politically motivated and damage Ukraine’s reputation. In order to change the negative picture of Ukraine that is emerging, I urged the leaders of Ukraine to work harder to ensure the judiciary’s independence. They need to show that they embrace the values underpinning political association with the EU. They need to convince us that Ukraine is serious about democracy, the rule of law, and that Ukraine is serious about the Association Agreement currently being negotiated with the EU.
The Association Agreement is based on political association. It involves a clear and effective commitment to the core values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law to which Ukraine has committed itself, towards OSCE, the Council of Europe and also the EU. It is a concern in itself that so many opposition figures are now facing legal action. But in addition, legal experts have criticised the conduct of the trials. Judicial processes need to be clearly unbiased, and it goes without saying that defendants should have a fair chance to prepare their cases. A weak, opaque justice system is a worry to all who value human rights and European values. It is also a deterrent for foreign investment since businesses need to be reassured about property rights and the functioning of the Courts.
But this negative development is not irreversible. Through my close contacts with Ukrainian counterparts, I am convinced that the Ukrainian leaders have understood the gravity of the situation, and are able to turn things around, and choose a different track. Ukraine can clearly demonstrate that weak rule of law is a remnant of the past. Ukraine can show that European values are at the heart of its European choice. This involves fair and transparent trials of former opposition leaders. But it also involves beginning serious work on a comprehensive justice reform. This is an ambitious project that requires determination and commitment over many years. The EU stands ready to continue supporting you in this endeavour..."
Also brief 5-minute video here
In her write-up of the event, 'Lyeviy Bereg's' Sonya Koshkina describes the efforts of first vice prime minister responsible for economic development and trade, Andriy Kluyev, as well as those of Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk , who try their utmost to put a brave positive spin into their presentations in support of euro-integration.
She says the Party of Regions' oligarchs have long been pro-Europe, but the president was slow to react to BYuT's lobbying in European circles on behalf of Tymoshenko after she was charged. Yanukovych failed to react right up to Independence day, by which time opinion had hardened in Europe that Tymoshenko was indeed being politically persecuted. By that time it was too late to change opinions and now the Europeans will be scrutinising events most carefully and critically before Ukraine's future in Europe is decided.
Koshkina's transcript of Fule's statement at the conference indicates he took a much stronger line, perhaps ad-libbed during his presentation, than that offered in the official print-out above.
Her article ends with rumours that over the last few months, whenever euro-integrational themes have been raised with Yanukovych, his response has been: 'Explain, why is this necessary, personally, to me? What will I have from this? In other words: where's the money?
***
In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"
"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]
LEvko wonders...Did Yanukovych and his close advisers really think Europeans would ratify association and trade agreement deals at a time when Ukraine's opposition leaders were in jail?
"There has been a lot of good news about Ukraine in the last twenty years. Unfortunately there have also been some difficult moments, which have brought the wrong kind of publicity. We are living through such a moment, and there are some basic problems which all of Ukraine’s key partners want to see addressed. Its ability to successfully overcome these problems would give a strong incentive to further consolidate the rule of law in the entire region. I know that - with the right will -Ukraine can surmount these obstacles, which are creating so many questions right now between us.
As I explained in Yalta, the on-going trials against opposition politicians appear to be politically motivated and damage Ukraine’s reputation. In order to change the negative picture of Ukraine that is emerging, I urged the leaders of Ukraine to work harder to ensure the judiciary’s independence. They need to show that they embrace the values underpinning political association with the EU. They need to convince us that Ukraine is serious about democracy, the rule of law, and that Ukraine is serious about the Association Agreement currently being negotiated with the EU.
The Association Agreement is based on political association. It involves a clear and effective commitment to the core values of democracy, human rights and the rule of law to which Ukraine has committed itself, towards OSCE, the Council of Europe and also the EU. It is a concern in itself that so many opposition figures are now facing legal action. But in addition, legal experts have criticised the conduct of the trials. Judicial processes need to be clearly unbiased, and it goes without saying that defendants should have a fair chance to prepare their cases. A weak, opaque justice system is a worry to all who value human rights and European values. It is also a deterrent for foreign investment since businesses need to be reassured about property rights and the functioning of the Courts.
But this negative development is not irreversible. Through my close contacts with Ukrainian counterparts, I am convinced that the Ukrainian leaders have understood the gravity of the situation, and are able to turn things around, and choose a different track. Ukraine can clearly demonstrate that weak rule of law is a remnant of the past. Ukraine can show that European values are at the heart of its European choice. This involves fair and transparent trials of former opposition leaders. But it also involves beginning serious work on a comprehensive justice reform. This is an ambitious project that requires determination and commitment over many years. The EU stands ready to continue supporting you in this endeavour..."
Also brief 5-minute video here
In her write-up of the event, 'Lyeviy Bereg's' Sonya Koshkina describes the efforts of first vice prime minister responsible for economic development and trade, Andriy Kluyev, as well as those of Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk , who try their utmost to put a brave positive spin into their presentations in support of euro-integration.
She says the Party of Regions' oligarchs have long been pro-Europe, but the president was slow to react to BYuT's lobbying in European circles on behalf of Tymoshenko after she was charged. Yanukovych failed to react right up to Independence day, by which time opinion had hardened in Europe that Tymoshenko was indeed being politically persecuted. By that time it was too late to change opinions and now the Europeans will be scrutinising events most carefully and critically before Ukraine's future in Europe is decided.
Koshkina's transcript of Fule's statement at the conference indicates he took a much stronger line, perhaps ad-libbed during his presentation, than that offered in the official print-out above.
Her article ends with rumours that over the last few months, whenever euro-integrational themes have been raised with Yanukovych, his response has been: 'Explain, why is this necessary, personally, to me? What will I have from this? In other words: where's the money?
***
In mafia circles the capo di tutti capi is usually the wealthiest of the bunch. Yanukovych looks down on his cabinet of ministers, on his close business associates and sponsors, and thinks: "These guys, whom I have known for decades, are so much wealthier than me...they owe so much to me...surely in my position I deserve to be up there with them too, no?" Hence the Mezhyhirya's with gold sanitary fittings in the bathrooms, the helicopters, executive jets, hunting lodges...etc."Because I'm worth it?"
"The talent for self-justification is surely the finest flower of human evolution, the greatest achievement of the human brain." [From 'The age of absurdity' by Michael Foley]
LEvko wonders...Did Yanukovych and his close advisers really think Europeans would ratify association and trade agreement deals at a time when Ukraine's opposition leaders were in jail?
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Only one choice for Ukraine
I really liked Vitaliy Pornikov's latest analytic article in 'Lyeviy Bereg' so I thought I would [loosely] translate portions:
Winter time has come early to Ukraine. Although it will not be cold for several months we are witnessing the first signs of social unrest at home and tough ultimatums from neighbours abroad...
Europe, and the West in general want little from Viktor Yanukovych - just a bit of sanity.
Our European partners do not want to encroach on the Yanukovych government's authority or on the decision-making mechanisms in the country. In actual fact they have closed their eyes to the constitutional coup which took place after the incumbent won the last presidential election - the Europeans explain all this away as mere growing pains.
But they can not, and will not be able to accept the demonstrative limitations on freedom of speech, and the destruction of the political opposition using judicial levers. We should not have illusions about this.
If the criminal case against Tymoshenko is not terminated the Europeans will not sign anything with Kyiv that would even allow any talk of a conditional presence of Ukraine in the European club. And this is a sound decision on their part, primarily in the interests of Ukraine, and then in the interest of Europe.
Such a decision shows the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to sell the products of local oligarchs in European markets, if it want to crash their cars outside Monte Carlo casinos [as a daughter of one high-up Ukrainian official did recently], and if it wish to continue to sunbathe in the best resorts and rub shoulders in high society circles they will have to give way and stop raping the country over which they have inherited control. This is what they were trying to explain to Yanukovich in Yalta.
And this is precisely what neither Yanukovych nor Ukrainian politicians can understand - that the question of values cannot be compromised, at least not in public.
The people who have to sign agreements with Yanukovych are accountable to their fellow citizens. Elected deputies who have to ratify any agreements in local parliaments are accountable to their constituents and these voters have a clear idea about what is good and what is bad. Europeans have a conscience. That's why what happened at Yalta should be considered a terrible embarrassment for Ukraine.
When European officials were trying to explain to Yanukovych is that on questions of values there cannot be any compromise. Ukrainian policians, who are supposed to be protecting the interests of their European-minded voters, were demanding their Western interlocutors commit political suicide by signing an agreement with a country that ignores the basic values the European Union. This is a clear indication of the political immaturity of Ukraine - its lack of readiness not only to join the EU, but even to get close.
Russia [on the other hand] wants far more from Yanukovich than Europe does - the surrender of the country's economy, its gas transport system, and its strategically important businesses.
Viktor Federovych will not succeed and get Medvedev and Putin to change track. But this certainly does not mean that if Ukraine does not now make any concessions to its European partners and does not 'stumble' into Europe, it will finish up in Russia's 'zone of influence'.
In reality no such 'zone' exists. Russia, cannot come to any agreement, even with its partners in the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, so what talk can there be about Ukraine?
Russian zone of influence? It's Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, but even there Moscow cannot work with the local leaders. And Ukraine is so much bigger.
Russia simply has no money to sponsor Ukraine, so cannot significantly reduce the price of gas.
Yanukovich absolutely does not need to be a Russian governor of Ukraine. He does not have the technical ability to be this, and his oligarchs will oppose any restriction to their possibilities for trade. Then there is the membership of Ukraine in the World Trade Organisation, and Ukrainian authorities indeed want to head in the European direction.
Medvedev and Putin do not understand this. We are fortunate that during a period of absolute weakness amongst the Ukrainian authorities Russia is run by people of an equally poor intellectual potential who sincerely believe that any normal person considers Ukraine to be merely 'a misunderstanding' which should be integrated back into the imperial structure.
So they will not seek compromise with Yanukovych, they will pressurise him and humiliate him, and he, already considering himself to be a tsar, will fly into a rage and not agree to anything, so we should forget about the myth of a choice between Europe and Russia which, supposedly, the Ukrainian authorities have to take.
We should just support the efforts of our European friends who are trying to prevent our country's slide into authoritarian morass. It's as simple as that....
p.s. On Saturday Yanukovych flies to Moscow to try and get a better gas deal - Medvedev is going to play hard-ball and the chances of success for Yanukovych, as stated by Valeriy Portnikov above, are slim. What some have called the 'Russian vacuum cleaner' is getting harder to resist - but closer ties with the EU would have provided a hand-hold.
Now, according to Ukraine's arrogant leaders it is the fault of the Europeans' that things are going wrong there too..
Former President Viktor Yushchenko recently warned in the 'WSJ' that the European Union's reluctance to offer a clear path to membership puts Ukraine at risk of falling into Russia's orbit and style of governance. [Nothing to do then with erosion of democracy and indications of political repression in Ukraine...of course not...not at all...]
Now 'walking disaster' adviser to the President, Hanna Herman believes that the European Union should offer a hand and give Ukraine a clear signal of future EU membership too.
"We see our future in the European home. In the home - not in the entrance hallway. And if our Western partner will not give us a clear signal that the doors to the European lounge are open, we need to think firmly: what we gain from kicking our heels in the hallway? " said Herman.
She added: "..We hope our western partner will give us a hand, and that Ukraine will accept this hand...Ukraine stands before a choice, and from its choice possibly depends all of the future of the geopolitical map of the continent."
She must have had her head up her arse not to have heard the 'clear signals' in Yalta...and perphaps read too many interior design magazines like 'House and Home' on the flight home...
Winter time has come early to Ukraine. Although it will not be cold for several months we are witnessing the first signs of social unrest at home and tough ultimatums from neighbours abroad...
Europe, and the West in general want little from Viktor Yanukovych - just a bit of sanity.
Our European partners do not want to encroach on the Yanukovych government's authority or on the decision-making mechanisms in the country. In actual fact they have closed their eyes to the constitutional coup which took place after the incumbent won the last presidential election - the Europeans explain all this away as mere growing pains.
But they can not, and will not be able to accept the demonstrative limitations on freedom of speech, and the destruction of the political opposition using judicial levers. We should not have illusions about this.
If the criminal case against Tymoshenko is not terminated the Europeans will not sign anything with Kyiv that would even allow any talk of a conditional presence of Ukraine in the European club. And this is a sound decision on their part, primarily in the interests of Ukraine, and then in the interest of Europe.
Such a decision shows the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to sell the products of local oligarchs in European markets, if it want to crash their cars outside Monte Carlo casinos [as a daughter of one high-up Ukrainian official did recently], and if it wish to continue to sunbathe in the best resorts and rub shoulders in high society circles they will have to give way and stop raping the country over which they have inherited control. This is what they were trying to explain to Yanukovich in Yalta.
And this is precisely what neither Yanukovych nor Ukrainian politicians can understand - that the question of values cannot be compromised, at least not in public.
The people who have to sign agreements with Yanukovych are accountable to their fellow citizens. Elected deputies who have to ratify any agreements in local parliaments are accountable to their constituents and these voters have a clear idea about what is good and what is bad. Europeans have a conscience. That's why what happened at Yalta should be considered a terrible embarrassment for Ukraine.
When European officials were trying to explain to Yanukovych is that on questions of values there cannot be any compromise. Ukrainian policians, who are supposed to be protecting the interests of their European-minded voters, were demanding their Western interlocutors commit political suicide by signing an agreement with a country that ignores the basic values the European Union. This is a clear indication of the political immaturity of Ukraine - its lack of readiness not only to join the EU, but even to get close.
Russia [on the other hand] wants far more from Yanukovich than Europe does - the surrender of the country's economy, its gas transport system, and its strategically important businesses.
Viktor Federovych will not succeed and get Medvedev and Putin to change track. But this certainly does not mean that if Ukraine does not now make any concessions to its European partners and does not 'stumble' into Europe, it will finish up in Russia's 'zone of influence'.
In reality no such 'zone' exists. Russia, cannot come to any agreement, even with its partners in the Customs Union, Belarus and Kazakhstan, so what talk can there be about Ukraine?
Russian zone of influence? It's Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria, but even there Moscow cannot work with the local leaders. And Ukraine is so much bigger.
Russia simply has no money to sponsor Ukraine, so cannot significantly reduce the price of gas.
Yanukovich absolutely does not need to be a Russian governor of Ukraine. He does not have the technical ability to be this, and his oligarchs will oppose any restriction to their possibilities for trade. Then there is the membership of Ukraine in the World Trade Organisation, and Ukrainian authorities indeed want to head in the European direction.
Medvedev and Putin do not understand this. We are fortunate that during a period of absolute weakness amongst the Ukrainian authorities Russia is run by people of an equally poor intellectual potential who sincerely believe that any normal person considers Ukraine to be merely 'a misunderstanding' which should be integrated back into the imperial structure.
So they will not seek compromise with Yanukovych, they will pressurise him and humiliate him, and he, already considering himself to be a tsar, will fly into a rage and not agree to anything, so we should forget about the myth of a choice between Europe and Russia which, supposedly, the Ukrainian authorities have to take.
We should just support the efforts of our European friends who are trying to prevent our country's slide into authoritarian morass. It's as simple as that....
p.s. On Saturday Yanukovych flies to Moscow to try and get a better gas deal - Medvedev is going to play hard-ball and the chances of success for Yanukovych, as stated by Valeriy Portnikov above, are slim. What some have called the 'Russian vacuum cleaner' is getting harder to resist - but closer ties with the EU would have provided a hand-hold.
Now, according to Ukraine's arrogant leaders it is the fault of the Europeans' that things are going wrong there too..
Former President Viktor Yushchenko recently warned in the 'WSJ' that the European Union's reluctance to offer a clear path to membership puts Ukraine at risk of falling into Russia's orbit and style of governance. [Nothing to do then with erosion of democracy and indications of political repression in Ukraine...of course not...not at all...]
Now 'walking disaster' adviser to the President, Hanna Herman believes that the European Union should offer a hand and give Ukraine a clear signal of future EU membership too.
"We see our future in the European home. In the home - not in the entrance hallway. And if our Western partner will not give us a clear signal that the doors to the European lounge are open, we need to think firmly: what we gain from kicking our heels in the hallway? " said Herman.
She added: "..We hope our western partner will give us a hand, and that Ukraine will accept this hand...Ukraine stands before a choice, and from its choice possibly depends all of the future of the geopolitical map of the continent."
She must have had her head up her arse not to have heard the 'clear signals' in Yalta...and perphaps read too many interior design magazines like 'House and Home' on the flight home...
Wednesday, September 21, 2011
Yanuk could leave Ukraine wandering in the wilderness
Steven Pifer, in an excellent article describes a means of resoving the Tymoshenko problem:
"Does Yanukovych now get it? Maybe. His answer to the Tymoshenko question [at the Yalta European Strategy conference] - which was carefully worded and most likely thought through in advance - opened a door to a possible solution by noting that the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) will examine certain provisions of the criminal code and may decide to remove them. Rada deputies have already proposed dropping the law that is the basis for the charges against Tymoshenko.
This could offer an elegant way out of the mess. If the Rada removes the relevant provision from the criminal code, it would eliminate the grounds for the Tymoshenko trial. Ukrainian analysts and Western diplomats at the Yalta conference expressed some optimism that the door to a solution might now be open—though one skeptic observed that the door had opened to a long corridor. All politics in Ukraine are transactional.
Tymoshenko’s release certainly would not erase all the Western concerns about democratic backsliding. Indeed, EU officials make clear that she must be freed and also allowed to participate in politics, including running in future elections..."
The body language of the government's mouthpieces on ICTV's 'Svoboda Slova', where the topic of decriminalisation of economic crimes [to solve the Tymoshenko problem] were under discussion, revealed their discomfort at having to eat humble pie. Their attempts to place the blame on deficiencies in the country's current laws was unconvincing.
An astonishing statement was made by Presidential Adviser Hanna Herman. She claimed Tymoshenko's arrest, which took place when Yanukovych was on vacation, was not only wrong, but was also an act of sabotage intended to discredit the president, carried out by someone whom she "would strangle with her own hands"...
'Kommentarii' suggests this may be an indication that members of Yanukovych's inner circle are beginning to plot against one another. Herman has had to take the flak for the plagiarism fiasco surrounding the book 'wot Yanukovych rote' - perhaps one of his inner circle was responsible for exposing Herman as the book's instigator. It could be she did not travel to New York with the president this week, as punishment.
[According to Kommentarii it may have well been First Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Renat Kuzmin, who 'screwed up' on Tymoshenko. For successfully 'putting her away', the black-hearted Kuzmin was seeking promotion as head of the Ukrainian Security Service - the SBU].
Sonya Koshkina in 'L.B' claims:
"The European integration of Ukraine, and with it the entire future of the country as a whole, is under massive question ." This is the biggest and most depressing conclusion of the eighth of Yalta European Strategy conference.
She concludes by saying Europeans have finally understood that key decisions in the country are being made by one person, the president, and that public opinion and the position of the elites are irrelevant to that man. PoR's oligarchs are willing to go along with Yanukovych's decisions, whatever they are, and are probably frightened that he may wish to become as wealthy as they are..
Yanukovych does not really understand why Ukraine should be in Europe. He could have been the Moses who leads Ukraine to the promised land of the EU, but his chance for a place in the history books could be blown for reasons of political revenge and personal greed.
"Does Yanukovych now get it? Maybe. His answer to the Tymoshenko question [at the Yalta European Strategy conference] - which was carefully worded and most likely thought through in advance - opened a door to a possible solution by noting that the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) will examine certain provisions of the criminal code and may decide to remove them. Rada deputies have already proposed dropping the law that is the basis for the charges against Tymoshenko.
This could offer an elegant way out of the mess. If the Rada removes the relevant provision from the criminal code, it would eliminate the grounds for the Tymoshenko trial. Ukrainian analysts and Western diplomats at the Yalta conference expressed some optimism that the door to a solution might now be open—though one skeptic observed that the door had opened to a long corridor. All politics in Ukraine are transactional.
Tymoshenko’s release certainly would not erase all the Western concerns about democratic backsliding. Indeed, EU officials make clear that she must be freed and also allowed to participate in politics, including running in future elections..."
The body language of the government's mouthpieces on ICTV's 'Svoboda Slova', where the topic of decriminalisation of economic crimes [to solve the Tymoshenko problem] were under discussion, revealed their discomfort at having to eat humble pie. Their attempts to place the blame on deficiencies in the country's current laws was unconvincing.
An astonishing statement was made by Presidential Adviser Hanna Herman. She claimed Tymoshenko's arrest, which took place when Yanukovych was on vacation, was not only wrong, but was also an act of sabotage intended to discredit the president, carried out by someone whom she "would strangle with her own hands"...
'Kommentarii' suggests this may be an indication that members of Yanukovych's inner circle are beginning to plot against one another. Herman has had to take the flak for the plagiarism fiasco surrounding the book 'wot Yanukovych rote' - perhaps one of his inner circle was responsible for exposing Herman as the book's instigator. It could be she did not travel to New York with the president this week, as punishment.
[According to Kommentarii it may have well been First Deputy Prosecutor General of Ukraine Renat Kuzmin, who 'screwed up' on Tymoshenko. For successfully 'putting her away', the black-hearted Kuzmin was seeking promotion as head of the Ukrainian Security Service - the SBU].
Sonya Koshkina in 'L.B' claims:
"The European integration of Ukraine, and with it the entire future of the country as a whole, is under massive question ." This is the biggest and most depressing conclusion of the eighth of Yalta European Strategy conference.
She concludes by saying Europeans have finally understood that key decisions in the country are being made by one person, the president, and that public opinion and the position of the elites are irrelevant to that man. PoR's oligarchs are willing to go along with Yanukovych's decisions, whatever they are, and are probably frightened that he may wish to become as wealthy as they are..
Yanukovych does not really understand why Ukraine should be in Europe. He could have been the Moses who leads Ukraine to the promised land of the EU, but his chance for a place in the history books could be blown for reasons of political revenge and personal greed.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Dark clouds over Yalta
'Kommersant' newspaper, not known for sensationalist reporting, runs a story today with this heading and first paragraph:
Europe indignant about the [Tymoshenko] case
EU makes future of [relations with] Ukraine dependent on the future of Yulia Tymoshenko.
The annual Yalta European Strategy conference took place in Yalta on 16-17th September. Its main events were talks between President Viktor Yanukovych and European policy-makers concerning the prosecution of ex-premier, leader of the "Fatherland" party, Yulia Tymoshenko.
It is believed in Brussels that Kyiv will agree to a complete rehabilitation of Ms Tymoshenko. However, the EU is preparing a "plan B" whereby the the process of rapprochement with Ukraine could be completely halted.
So, it's getting serious..
Yanukovych tried to 'vybrekhatysya' [lie his way out], but failed...
p.s. Two of the guests at the YES conference were Andriy Kluyev, first vice prime minister of Ukraine responsible for economic development and trade, and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.
Kluyev and his younger brother Serhiy are very wealthy businessmen - they own two executive jets. Nevertheless, Andriy chose to fly to Crimea to attend the YES conference in a specially chartered aircraft paid for by the government [at an estimated cost for the return trip of up to $20k]
Fule flew economy class on the Frankfurt-Simferopol flight..
Former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko has been imprisoned since last December in connection with charges alleging he overpaid his driver by a few thousand dollars..
Europe indignant about the [Tymoshenko] case
EU makes future of [relations with] Ukraine dependent on the future of Yulia Tymoshenko.
The annual Yalta European Strategy conference took place in Yalta on 16-17th September. Its main events were talks between President Viktor Yanukovych and European policy-makers concerning the prosecution of ex-premier, leader of the "Fatherland" party, Yulia Tymoshenko.
It is believed in Brussels that Kyiv will agree to a complete rehabilitation of Ms Tymoshenko. However, the EU is preparing a "plan B" whereby the the process of rapprochement with Ukraine could be completely halted.
So, it's getting serious..
Yanukovych tried to 'vybrekhatysya' [lie his way out], but failed...
p.s. Two of the guests at the YES conference were Andriy Kluyev, first vice prime minister of Ukraine responsible for economic development and trade, and Stefan Fule, European Commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy.
Kluyev and his younger brother Serhiy are very wealthy businessmen - they own two executive jets. Nevertheless, Andriy chose to fly to Crimea to attend the YES conference in a specially chartered aircraft paid for by the government [at an estimated cost for the return trip of up to $20k]
Fule flew economy class on the Frankfurt-Simferopol flight..
Former interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko has been imprisoned since last December in connection with charges alleging he overpaid his driver by a few thousand dollars..
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Tit for tat over Tymoshenko?
The first reading of the draft report of the European Parliament’s recommendations to the Council, the Commission and the EEAS on the negotiations of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has been postponed from the 26 - 29th September pleniary session, provisionally until 16th November.
The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.
Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.
'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.
President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.
The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.
'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..
The Tymoshenko gas trial, which had been in its final run-in last week, was sensationally adjourned on Monday, until 27th September. A verdict was imminent and therefore would probably have been announced on Friday 30th September, or more likely, on Monday 3rd October, i.e. just after the European parliament session.
Now after this postponement in the European parliament, a further adjournment in the Tymoshenko trial could be likely, as I suggested in my previous blog.
'Lyevyi Bereg' editor-in-chief Sonia Koshkina reckons it could almost be the New Year before a sentence is passed in the Tymoshenko trial, and claims the former PM can be regarded as a hostage or a bargaining chip, serving to focus both Brussels' and Moscow's attention on to the looming gas war; to be released once a new gas price for Ukraine is settled.
President of European People`s Party Dr. Wilfried Martens met President Victor Yanukovych today. He had been denied access to the incarcerated Tymoshenko earlier in the day.
The big-selling pro-PoR 'Segodnya' concludes an article describing his visit thus: "..the European politician yet again made clear that a decision on the Association Agreement with the EU depends on the court's decision on Tymoshenko.
'Segodnya', quoting a recent 'Ukrainska Pravda' piece, says: "It's difficult to land up behind bars on the "Tymoshenko [criminal] article", media reports -The defendants usually get off with a fine or a 'suspended' sentence....They are preparing their readers for a soft landing for Lady Yu, as they sometimes call her..
Monday, September 12, 2011
Turning point for Tymoshenko today?
Today could turn out to be a pivotal day in Ukrainian politics.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Since the start of the Tymoshenko trial in June the presiding judge has done his utmost to force proceedings at break-neck speed. Day after day court sessions have frequently started at 9 a.m. and continued almost without a break into the early evening. Tymoshenko's team have been constantly denied the right to call dozens of expert witnesses, despite their frequent appeals to do so. Requests for additional time to prepare the case for the defence have been almost invariably denied, as have requests to present detailed evidence such as Naftogas external auditors' reports.
In a word, it has been blinding obvious that the prosecution, judges and their political puppet-masters hads all intended the trial to come to an end and a guilty verdict to be pronounced just as quickly as half-decently possible.
But, to the astonishment of virtually all commentators, when court was re-convened today, the presiding judge announced a two-week adjournment until September 27: "to guarantee the rights of the defence and provide extra time." Significantly, the prosecuting council who had previously protested the granting of any slack to the defence, offered no challenge to the judge's decision.
In other words a complete about-face..
At a meeting of big-shot 'Regionnaires' recently, the whispers were that most of the talking was about finalising the details of the denouement of Tymoshenko's career. Most media observers considered a guilty verdict and a hefty sentence to be imminent, and the trial to be wrapped up by the end of this week. There had been lots of speculation over how heavy the sentence would be, and whether president Yanukovych would amnesty his deadliest political foe in order to attenuate the unprecendented pressure from abroad. Either way Tymoshenko's political career looked all but doomed.
My impression is that Yanukovych has been told in no uncertain terms by Western leaders: If Tymoshenko's political career is terminated, i.e. if a guilty verdict is announced at the end of the trial, we are not messing about...we are closing the door on any further business...Yanukovych has now been forced to make a stark choice.
At the moment Tymoshenko is not guilty of anything and can be released by a snap of the fingers of sourcerer's apprentice of a judge. But a not guilty verdict would be just too much to bear for the current authorities, so the Tymoshenko trial could be suspended for an indefinite period,,..allegations remaining hanging over her. The pressure from abroad, however, would immediately subside.
A guilty verdict in the Tymoshenko trial immediately after the Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw, which is to take place September 29-30, reduces the chances of ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreements initialled in Warsaw because the two-week adjournment announced today in the Pechersk court would be regarded as a cynical ploy intended to temporarily deceive EU leaders.
Yanukovych will be at the United Nations General Assembly next week, so the delay helps avoid embarrassment in New York too.
p.s. But there again, who knows what goes on in the heads of the people who got themselves into this mess in the first place? Tymoshenko's political career was in decline, the opposition were demoralised and fractured, European perspectives were looking rosy, and after the Kharkiv agreement, things were set fair with Russia....how did it all go wrong?
It woz the 'mother's union' that fixed it.
Friday, September 09, 2011
Medvedev says gas formula is universal and applies to Ukraine and other countries - and 'Tymo', 'Lutsyk' to be free soon?
Yesterday president Medvedev of Russia was interviewed by Euronews.
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Below is a portion of that interview:
Euronews: Another winter is coming, and once more there is another conflict between Russia and Ukraine about gas.
Dmitry Medvedev: Well, so far there’s no conflict, rather there are differences that might lead to various developments.
Euronews: Could that lead to problems with the gas supply to Europe, for example?
Dmitry Medvedev: You know, I hope that after all the recent experiences our close partners and friends must learn that you can’t torpedo existing contracts – even if you don’t like them, like when our colleagues and partners, the president of Ukraine or the Ukrainian Prime Minister say that a contract is unfair and bad and they won’t honour it.
It is completely unacceptable. All agreements, as long as they are not refuted in court or abandoned by the parties, must be carried out.
And I hope that our partners, our Ukrainian friends will likewise stick strictly to the framework agreement concluded in 2009. As for the future, I have repeatedly said that we are willing to discuss various cooperation schemes with our Ukrainian colleagues. Including advanced plans, based on the integration of Ukraine in the Customs Union.
But they, for some reason, say that the WTO prevents them from being in the Customs Union – but it’s a little strange, as the Customs Union doesn’t prevent us from joining the WTO. But that’s their own view.
Or we could discuss integration based on some other approaches, including our investment in Ukraine’s economy or gas transport system.
If we can agree on this, we will probably be ready to consider change in the scheme of cooperation. But at the same time the immutable principle remains that gas cooperation is always based on a formula. The formula is universal, and it applies to Ukraine and other countries. Talk like “we’re paying more than other countries” isn’t based on anything. This is pure propaganda.
Ukraine pays by the same formula, and pays commensurate with the price paid by other European consumers. Current prices are high, that’s true. But they can also be extremely low sometimes. And then it’s a problem for the energy supplier. So, in summary, I hope Ukrainian consumers will keep following the contract properly, and we’ll come to an agreement about our future business.
It is unlikely what Medvedev says about Ukraine's gas payments is far from the truth. On top of this Yanukovych gave up Sevastopol for several decades to the Russian Black Sea fleet in exchange for a gas discount..
So why is Tymoshenko being charged and imprisoned for negotiating a bad gas deal with a monopolistic supplier under extreme duress, in 2009?
[A most informative, up-to-date concise explanation of the Ukrainian-Russian gas dispute can be read here ]
This article from 'Ukrainian Weekly ' explains the backstreet gangster tactics being employed to eliminate Tymoshenko from Ukrainian politics...What else can be expected from these thugs?
p.s. Interesting and intriguing statement on the president of Poland's official site today following a meeting between himself and president of the European Council, Herman van Rompuy on Friday afternoon, during which Ukraine's European perspectives were discussed.
"After talks with President Yanukovych [on Thursday ] I can have a limited, but reasonably, optimistic point of view on the prospects for development of the situation (in Ukraine), also in the context of the Yulia Tymoshenko's case.... We will continue to take actions which should ensure the success of the Eastern Partnership Summit in Warsaw, but also [provide] an exit for Ukraine from a difficult situation in which it has found itself, in the opinion of many EU member states, due to the ongoing trial of Tymoshenko, said president Komorowski."
Hmm....Has Yanik made certain pledges or undertakings?
Saturday Update: 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' thinks some kind of 'fudge' or as they call it, 'ersatz -variant' is likely in the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko cases too...
Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' having its balls sqeezed too...
Arseniy Yatsenyuk's 'Front Zmin' reports the head of their Donetsk oblast organisation, Oleksandr Yaroshenko, was arrested late Wednesday night in Kyiv. They claim he has been taken by automobile to Donetsk, but no-one has been able to contact him.
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
The party says the arrest took place immediately after a visit by Yatsenyuk to the Donetsk oblast where he 'severely criticised the actions of the president, govermnent, and city council'.
Yaroshenko is the head doctor in dermatology clinic in Mariupol and over the last few years has set up several diagnostic medical centres in Ukraine, so sounds like a 'regular guy'.
Neither the Kyiv police nor the Ukrainian Security Service, SBU, seem to know anything about Yaroshenko's arrest..
If Yulia Tymoshenko is found guilty and sentenced to a prison 'stretch', as most observers predict , Yatsenyuk, whether he likes it or not, will become 'leader of the opposition' and a most realistic challenger to Yanukovych..
The authoritative 'Kommentarii' weekly considers this shady Yaroshenko business to be part of a co-ordinated campaign, already underway, intended to frighten off Donetsk businessmen who may be sympathetic to 'Front Zmin'.
Yatsenyuk's party have been landing some heavy political blows in the region lately, and 'Kommentarii' suggest that if it were not for his immunity from prosecution provided by his parliamentary deputy status, young Arseniy may have been in the same 'hot water' as Tymoshenko already..
Loosely paraphrasing 'Kommentarii's' conclusions:
..many of the rich 'Frontovyky' [in the Donetsk area] are now encountering problems with enviable regularity to make them realise that it makes not the slightest sense to financially support 'Front Zmin'.. to 'lean on them', but if they persist, [to let them know] their businesses can be taken off them. The [biggest] threat the authorities' tactics pose to Yatsenyuk himself right now is loss of financing... forcing him to consider seeking a"roof" provided by one of the Party of Regions' oligarchs and becoming a PoR-operated glove-puppet opposition [leader].
In other words: 'Front Zmin' are being "made an offer they cannot refuse" ....now who said that?
Two of Yanukovych's biggest rivals, Tymoshenko and Lutsenko, are behind bars.. A third majpr party led by a potential future president, Tihipko's 'Strong Ukraine', has recently 'melded' with PoR. Now Yatsenyuk is being squeezed....you gotta admire these guys...straight out of Mario Puzo..
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
The book 'wot Yanukovyhc rote'
So the translator of Yanukovych's latest book, 'Opportunity Ukraine', has now taken the blame for this piece of blatant plagiarism.
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
After denials of plagiarism by presidential administration spokesperson Hanna Herman and the subsequent scandal that flared up in the international press, someone had to be made the fall guy.
The translator of the book, Konstyantyn Vasylkevych, now admits he omitted references to sources because: "It was necessary to make the book more convenient to read."
LEvko says everyone knows that Yanukovych is not a well-read man capable of writing book of several hundreds of pages. Nothing wrong in that. I recall when Yanukovych had to write a comment in a visitors book several years ago in a European city, he discreetly pulled out a little crib-sheet to make sure he did not make any spelling mistakes...Nothing wrong with that either..
But to claim authorship of a trashy piece of plagiarism shows Yanukovych is losing his sense of reality, and is becoming self-delusional, which is dangerous..And a panglossian book, intended to encourage sceptical foreigners and hard-nosed businessmen to invest in Ukraine, will have quite the opposite effect..
p.s. "The book what I wrote" is the title of a book about two well-loved British comedians - so, strictly no plagiarism in this blog..
Update on oil platform scandal
In late May and early June I posted several blogs [here, here, here] about an alleged scam, exposed by the 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' newspaper, involving the purchase of an oil drilling platform for hundreds of millions of dollars via a highly dubious off-shore company, all overseen by odious energy minister Yuriy Boyko.
Now Stan Gorin, a director of the off-shore name-plate company, 'Highway Investment Processing LLP', whose registered offices are over a plumber's merchant between a Chinese take-away and a tattoo parlour in Cardiff, Wales, claims he has received no money, has never been in Ukraine, and has nothing to do with drilling platforms, even though Ukrainian National Joint Stock Company'Chornomornaftogaz' has has already paid $202 million into his company's bank account 'up-front' for the drilling platform.
At the time the story broke, Boyko claimed the story had been 'commissioned' in order to discredit him. He promised to refer the matter to the Ukrainian State Security [SBU] for investigation so that the instigators of this 'disgraceful muck-raking' could be revealed.
Its now seems that the matter was investigated - not by the SBU, because they are headed by Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, a financial/political associate of Boyko's, but by the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
To date no-one has been named as the alleged [fictional?] commissioner of this story, and 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' has not been told to retract their story..
Saturday, September 03, 2011
European leaders not bluffing...
At an informal meeting of Ministers of Foreign Affairs of 27 EU countries in Sopot, Poland today, discussions were held on preparations for the forthcoming Eastern Partnership Summit, [scheduled for 29-30th September in Warsaw] where association and free trade agreements with Ukraine could be finalised.
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Today, Reuters reported the meeting thus: "European Union members could block an agreement on closer ties with Ukraine if Kiev continues with a "show trial" against the country’s former leader, senior EU diplomats said on Saturday"
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, in a separate press conference, said: “The majority view (in the EU) is that the agreement can be finalised only if the Tymoshenko case is solved..It means having a free and fair trial and abandoning the unjustified charges against her.”
Many similar declarations have been voiced for many weeks now. However, reading stuff in Ukrainian newspapers and listening to Ukrainian TV and radio, so-called experts, representatives of 'vlasti', and maybe even the man in the street, all consider these to be empty threats and bluff.
E.g. well-known German Eurasia expert, Alexander Rahr, appearing in a recent 'Bolshaya Politika' talk show , said the sorts of responses heard today in Sopot are merely 'ritualistic' and declared that in politics, apart from moral, there are also absolutely cynical, 'realpolitik' judgements to be made.
According to Rahr, Europeans big fear that Ukraine could slip back into Russia's sphere of influence and a new Russian empire could reemerge. To prevent this, free trade and association agreements will, sooner or later be signed between the EU and Ukraine. Geo-political interests need to be served even if Tymoshenko has to 'go to the wall'.
LEvko's view is that 'big-beast' foreign ministers do not bluff...they have have made too many big decisions, sent their young persons to war too many times in recent years to have to do this... There is domestic political capital to be gained by standing up for democratic principles...protecting the imprisoned fairy princess from the brutal ogre etc...'Realpolitik' is applied in different measure according to each individual country and situation..
Most likely there will be a verdict in the Tymoshenko trial by the time of the Eastern Partnership Summit, so not long to wait for its messy resolutions ...
p.s. Tymoshenko, in a recent letter co-written with Hryhoriy Nemyria, said: "It is our fervent belief that Ukraine's future lies in Europe. Our government displayed our commitment to this goal by initiating talks for a comprehensive free-trade agreement with the EU, which is due to be finalized this year. And while we do not want Mrs. Tymoshenko's or her associates' political show-trials to deflect Ukraine from its European path, it is worth noting that never before has the EU entered into such a far-reaching free-trade agreement with a non-democratic state. Sadly, this is exactly what Ukraine is becoming."
Thursday, September 01, 2011
Cunning plan to save Yanik's face?
'Kommentarii' weekly claims that according to their sources, Ukraine's ruling authorities will never give up on putting Tymoshenko behind bars. But in order to reduce the degree of criticism from the West, the presidential administration has dreamt up a plan to extricate themselves from the bind they find themselves in as a result of the criminal cases in progress against Tymoshenko and former internal affairs minister, Yuriy Lutsenko.
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
The plan is as follows: Tymoshenko is to be found guilty and convicted, but Lutsenko is to be released, and, at worst, is to receive a suspended sentence.
In order to "enhance and confirm the objectivity and impartiality of the Ukrainian judiciary", some of Party of Regions' lesser fish are to be caught and arrested on charges of corruption.
In addition, slimeball parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn, who has recently been 'fingered' by alleged perpetrator Oleksiy Pukach for commissioning the murder of Georgiy Gongadze, could be made to 'take a fall' for this offence.
All this is supposed to get Yanukovych back into the 'good books' of the West.
Only a thuggish numbskull moron could come up with such a hare-brained scheme, so your humble blogger attaches no credence to this story at all....but there again....
Recently 'Der Spiegel' declared: "As alarm grows in the West over the trial against former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, German politicians are threatening to withdraw their support for an agreement that would strengthen ties between the European Union and the former Soviet Republic.."
Everyone's gaze is only on queen bee...
p.s. How ironic that Ukraine's government is threatening to file lawsuits in international courts regarding its gas disputes with Russia, when, at the same time, its own domestic courts are bungling the Tymoshenko gas trial at home... maybe she should be tried in an international court too...what would the verdict be there, I wonder?
Will Yanukovych accept any ruling e.g by the European Court of Human Rights on the political show-trials taking place in Ukraine right now?
...stupid question...
Why cases against opposition are seen to be politically motivated
According to the pro-Yanukovych "Segodnya'" newspaper the inevitable 'source close to Yanukovych' exposed the president's calculations by claiming:
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
Polish president Komorowski is not interested in Tymoshenko herself - he is perfectly well aware that by signing a gas contract in 2009, Yulia T. worked for the benefit of Russia as well as for herself in the presidential race, but this topic had to be raised to take account of a strong BYuT lobby the European Parliament.
The only important thing is which argument tips the scales - the need to mitigate the situation around Tymoshenko, or the need to draw Ukraine into the EU because of the serious pressure being strongly applied by Russia onto Ukraine.
For Komorowski the choice is clear already - drawing Ukraine into the EU is more important than Tymoshenko, and his opinion as the current head of the EU is influential, but it is also clear that there are more powerful heads of state in the EU.
However the Polish President will make every effort, because he understands that Ukraine will either receive an association agreement under his Presidency, i,e. by the end of 2011, or it will it be postponed indefinitely.
At the same time, a 'Segodnya' BYuT informant claims that it was made clear to the president of Ukraine in Gdansk that the EU integrates only with democracies, or those countries moving toward democracy; and a country where the opposition leader is behind bars can not be considered democratic.
Neither of these viewpoints are strictly correct - no leader is above the law.
The criminal cases against both Tymoshenko, and Lutsenko, are fundamentally weak - that is the reason why they are seen to be politically motivated. In countries with independent judiciary there would have been no trial in either case, or the trials would have collapsed very quickly.
Furthermore, even though these trials are being carefully scrutinised, they have been conducted from the very beginning in a completely shambolic and prejudicial manner, so any verdict cannot be considered sound.
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