Listen here to the March 27, Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings (CUSE) discussion on the challenges facing Ukraine, the U.S. and the European Union.
In the first panel, Edward Chow, senior fellow with the Center for Strategic & International Studies; Nadia Diuk, vice president at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Brookings Senior Fellow Steven Pifer discuss current Ukrainian domestic and foreign policy. Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill, director of CUSE, moderates.
In the second panel, Pirkka Tapiola, an officer with the European External Action Service, and Daniel Russell, deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, discuss the European Union and U.S. policy responses. Senior Fellow Steven Pifer moderates.
Essential listening to anyone interested in Ukrainian affairs...stick with it...
An important observation [from the transcript of the discussion]:
"Keith C. Smith from CSIS.. I don’t know Ukraine as well as the panelists, but I spent a long time as a diplomat and I made a lot of mistakes in judgment. I estimated governments wrong in, I can think of many, many cases; but after being... I was in Ukraine, Kyiv three months after the Yanukovych government, this one took over and somebody in the U.S. Government asked me to give them a summary of what I thought, and I said two things. One, I thought the level of corruption would increase, and two, that the main thing would be to make sure they never lose another election.
And I think that when we talk about actions by the government that are against their own interest, we have to put ourselves in their place, which is something I failed to do many times over my career, and I think that they see this as, no matter what, the most important thing is to make sure they never lose another election, no matter what, no matter what it takes.
And it think that that’s what their pattern has been from the very beginning, and paying off some debts, the debts to Dmytro Firtash, for instance, for his election support.
The first thing they did was put in jail Igor Didenko, which was a payoff for, you know, carrying out Tymoshenko’s order on gas -- moving the gas from his control to Naftagas’ control. And you can see this in a whole pattern of things. It’s paying off a certain campaign debt and ensuring that there not be a loss in the next election.
And I think that’s how they see this: as even more important than a balance between East and West or getting into the EU or anything else, quite frankly.
Thanks."
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Don't believe what you read in the papers...
According to the staid and reliable 'Kommersant' business daily, Viktor Yanukovych and president Barak Obama, who were both attending the nuclear summit in Seoul, spoke together yesterday for just over four minutes. No separate room was prepared for them, and both presidents remained standing during their brief conversation. Yanukovych's meeting with European Council president Herman von Rompey and European commission head Jose Manuel Barrosso followed a similar format. They spoke briefly during a short intermission between pleniary sessions.
The White House described the Obama/Yanukovych meeting in a single paragraph:
"The President and Ukrainian President Yanukovych spoke today at the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea. President Obama expressed appreciation to President Yanukovych and the Ukrainian people for the complete removal of highly enriched uranium from their country as a sign of Ukraine’s continuing courageous leadership on nuclear security. The leaders agreed this is an important step towards securing all vulnerable nuclear materials and is an important milestone for global security. The President underscored the importance of demonstrating the vitality of Ukrainian democracy by ensuring free, fair, and transparent parliamentary elections in October. The President also raised U.S. concerns about selective prosecutions of the political opposition."
The big-selling pro-Yanukovych 'Segodnya' daily put an entirely different slant on their meeting. They 'stretched' the time the two presidents spent talking to "a little over 15 minutes".
Commented on his meeting with EU leaders Herman van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso, Yanukovych claimed: "We were able to discuss the situation briefly, but could not execute the entire program of talks." This meeting took place immediately after the rendezvous with Obama, and because the discussion with the American president went on for longer than planned, [oh yes?..F.N] accordingly, Yanukovych's conversation with the Europeans had to be shortened. However president Yanukovych was not particularly upset, "I think there will be time for this. We agreed to keep in contact."
In another article, 'Segodnya' claims:
"Tonight, the Ukrainian president leaves Seoul in a good mood, because his stay in the city has revived hopes that the Ukrainian leadership's geopolitical plans may still be fulfilled as a result of meetings with U.S. President Barack Obama, and with the leaders of the European Union.
Since Ukraine's main geopolitical game is with Russia and the EU, the U.S. does not play a key role here. For Viktor Yanukovych is was important to merely obtain a stance of friendly neutrality from the American president, which he received in Seoul. There is no doubt that until the November U.S. presidential elections take place, the White House will not utter a single critical word about Ukraine, and this will be a signal to a global audience that Yanukovych can not be put on a par with Lukashenko, Chavez, or even president Ahmadinejad of Iran. For Obama, the president of Ukraine is a respectable leader of a democratic state about whom he has no complaints."
'Segodnya' and Yanukovych kid no-one. There will be no further Euro-integration until opposition leaders are released from jail. And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has on many occasions made the U.S. position most clear too.
The White House described the Obama/Yanukovych meeting in a single paragraph:
"The President and Ukrainian President Yanukovych spoke today at the Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea. President Obama expressed appreciation to President Yanukovych and the Ukrainian people for the complete removal of highly enriched uranium from their country as a sign of Ukraine’s continuing courageous leadership on nuclear security. The leaders agreed this is an important step towards securing all vulnerable nuclear materials and is an important milestone for global security. The President underscored the importance of demonstrating the vitality of Ukrainian democracy by ensuring free, fair, and transparent parliamentary elections in October. The President also raised U.S. concerns about selective prosecutions of the political opposition."
The big-selling pro-Yanukovych 'Segodnya' daily put an entirely different slant on their meeting. They 'stretched' the time the two presidents spent talking to "a little over 15 minutes".
Commented on his meeting with EU leaders Herman van Rompuy and Jose Manuel Barroso, Yanukovych claimed: "We were able to discuss the situation briefly, but could not execute the entire program of talks." This meeting took place immediately after the rendezvous with Obama, and because the discussion with the American president went on for longer than planned, [oh yes?..F.N] accordingly, Yanukovych's conversation with the Europeans had to be shortened. However president Yanukovych was not particularly upset, "I think there will be time for this. We agreed to keep in contact."
In another article, 'Segodnya' claims:
"Tonight, the Ukrainian president leaves Seoul in a good mood, because his stay in the city has revived hopes that the Ukrainian leadership's geopolitical plans may still be fulfilled as a result of meetings with U.S. President Barack Obama, and with the leaders of the European Union.
Since Ukraine's main geopolitical game is with Russia and the EU, the U.S. does not play a key role here. For Viktor Yanukovych is was important to merely obtain a stance of friendly neutrality from the American president, which he received in Seoul. There is no doubt that until the November U.S. presidential elections take place, the White House will not utter a single critical word about Ukraine, and this will be a signal to a global audience that Yanukovych can not be put on a par with Lukashenko, Chavez, or even president Ahmadinejad of Iran. For Obama, the president of Ukraine is a respectable leader of a democratic state about whom he has no complaints."
'Segodnya' and Yanukovych kid no-one. There will be no further Euro-integration until opposition leaders are released from jail. And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has on many occasions made the U.S. position most clear too.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Association of Ukrainian Banks slams National Bank of Ukraine's management
The Association of Ukrainian Banks today presented the President of Ukraine, Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine and its deputies, members of the Supervisory Board of the National Bank, and others, with an in-depth analysis into the activities of the National Bank of Ukraine [NBU] in its monetary and regulatory policy in 2011.
An accompanying letter, written by the president of AUB states: "We are forced to write to you because of threats to the stability and negative trends in the financial and economic, monetary and banking sectors, which are magnified by the mistakes made by the NBU's management in their implementation of monetary and regulatory policies, as well as in the violation by the NBU, of the Constitution, legislation, and President of Ukraine's decrees.
The AUB questions the professional competence of NBU's management and proposes they all resign...
Not much chance of this happening when the NBU is run by pals of the 'Yanukovych Family'.
An accompanying letter, written by the president of AUB states: "We are forced to write to you because of threats to the stability and negative trends in the financial and economic, monetary and banking sectors, which are magnified by the mistakes made by the NBU's management in their implementation of monetary and regulatory policies, as well as in the violation by the NBU, of the Constitution, legislation, and President of Ukraine's decrees.
The AUB questions the professional competence of NBU's management and proposes they all resign...
Not much chance of this happening when the NBU is run by pals of the 'Yanukovych Family'.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
Bankers being "bumped off" again
Several days ago a top Russian banker, German Gorbuntsov, was 'whacked' in London by a lone assassin, but survived. He remains in a critical but stable condition in an unnamed London hospital. The attack, which was front page news in the papers, may well be linked to an ongoing investigation into the attempted murder of another Russian banker, Aleksandr Antonov, in Moscow in 2009.
Yuriy Butusov, in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', describes an almost identical event that occurred a day earlier, on 20th March, in Kyiv. The deputy head of the 'Soyuz' Bank, and, more importantly, founder of the scandal-ridden 'Rodovid' Bank, Serhiy Dyadechko, was also shot-up, but also survived.
Butusov suggests the attempt on Dyadchenko's life is connected to the collapse in 2009 of the Ukrainian 'Rodovid' bank - one of the biggest bank busts ever seen in Eastern Europe. The tab for losses of up to 35Bn Hryven was picked up by the Ukrainian state and its citizens when the bank was recapitalised.
The Security Service of Ukraine, [SBU], led by recently-appointed first vice prime minister Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, failed to 'nail' anyone for fraud even though in March 2010 the State Financial Inspectorate provided a detailed report on financial machinations by top managers at the bank to the tune of over 22 Bn Hryven. Khoroshkovsky, at the time, promised to personally control the investigation.
Only one guy has been 'brought to justice' so far - temporary administrator Serhiy Shcherbyn, who actually joined 'Rodovid' bank after it went 'belly-up'. The former president of the bank, famed Olympian Serhiy Bubka has never even been questioned, and a third founder of the bank, Denys Horbunenko, head of the bank's administration, now lives in London.
The main witness to the huge alleged bank fraud, multimillionaire Hennadiy Piskun, mysteriously fell out of a the 7th floor Donetsk apartment window on 29th October last year, while, allegedly, attempting to fix the air conditioning unit. It seems things got 'rather too hot' for him shortly after being questioned by the SBU, when he 'fingered' the bank's directors for theft of the money. Piskun's death has never been properly investigated so it is quite probable he was 'silenced'.
This was not the first 'accident' involving witnesses in the 'Rodovid' case. After being questioned by the SBU, the head of the bank's legal department, Olekshandr Ivakhnenko 'slipped in the bath' and received serious head injuries. He was hospitalised for many months.
Having survived his ordeal, Serhiy Dyadchenko has, unsurprisingly, fled the country with his family and may be seeking asylum, possibly in France.
Butusov, in his 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' article concludes: Organisers of financial scams are the people most invulnerable to justice in Ukraine - they are second only to the organisers of political scams. Witnesses who provide evidence are thrown out of windows, and appointed administrators are found guilty. No one takes responsibily for the collapse of banks. The legal system means nothing in the black hole that is Ukraine's financial system.
Yuriy Butusov, in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', describes an almost identical event that occurred a day earlier, on 20th March, in Kyiv. The deputy head of the 'Soyuz' Bank, and, more importantly, founder of the scandal-ridden 'Rodovid' Bank, Serhiy Dyadechko, was also shot-up, but also survived.
Butusov suggests the attempt on Dyadchenko's life is connected to the collapse in 2009 of the Ukrainian 'Rodovid' bank - one of the biggest bank busts ever seen in Eastern Europe. The tab for losses of up to 35Bn Hryven was picked up by the Ukrainian state and its citizens when the bank was recapitalised.
The Security Service of Ukraine, [SBU], led by recently-appointed first vice prime minister Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, failed to 'nail' anyone for fraud even though in March 2010 the State Financial Inspectorate provided a detailed report on financial machinations by top managers at the bank to the tune of over 22 Bn Hryven. Khoroshkovsky, at the time, promised to personally control the investigation.
Only one guy has been 'brought to justice' so far - temporary administrator Serhiy Shcherbyn, who actually joined 'Rodovid' bank after it went 'belly-up'. The former president of the bank, famed Olympian Serhiy Bubka has never even been questioned, and a third founder of the bank, Denys Horbunenko, head of the bank's administration, now lives in London.
The main witness to the huge alleged bank fraud, multimillionaire Hennadiy Piskun, mysteriously fell out of a the 7th floor Donetsk apartment window on 29th October last year, while, allegedly, attempting to fix the air conditioning unit. It seems things got 'rather too hot' for him shortly after being questioned by the SBU, when he 'fingered' the bank's directors for theft of the money. Piskun's death has never been properly investigated so it is quite probable he was 'silenced'.
This was not the first 'accident' involving witnesses in the 'Rodovid' case. After being questioned by the SBU, the head of the bank's legal department, Olekshandr Ivakhnenko 'slipped in the bath' and received serious head injuries. He was hospitalised for many months.
Having survived his ordeal, Serhiy Dyadchenko has, unsurprisingly, fled the country with his family and may be seeking asylum, possibly in France.
Butusov, in his 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' article concludes: Organisers of financial scams are the people most invulnerable to justice in Ukraine - they are second only to the organisers of political scams. Witnesses who provide evidence are thrown out of windows, and appointed administrators are found guilty. No one takes responsibily for the collapse of banks. The legal system means nothing in the black hole that is Ukraine's financial system.
Friday, March 23, 2012
Beware the Youtube generation
Several days ago a criminal investgation was opened into the illegal felling of 9 hectares of forest in the elite Koncha Zaspa region near Kyiv. Over 4 thousand trees have allegedly been chopped down without permission by a company building an exclusive boarding school for local VIP residents. Photo of proposed project here
Because of the nature of the project, the amount of money involved, and the corrupt way these matters are arranged, the chances the project will be terminated are slim even though there already apparently exists a moratorium on the felling of trees in this ecologically important area designated solely for recreational purposes.
On Wednesday, a group of masked activists/vigilantes, maybe several dozen in number, took matters into their own hands. They raided and trashed the building site then posted a video of their action on youtube.
So far there have been over 20,000 viewings of the youtube video
Will these kind of protests become more common? There are many people out there seriously pissed with the way the country's elites disdainfully flout rules and regulations and mess things up for the regular joe.
Because of the nature of the project, the amount of money involved, and the corrupt way these matters are arranged, the chances the project will be terminated are slim even though there already apparently exists a moratorium on the felling of trees in this ecologically important area designated solely for recreational purposes.
On Wednesday, a group of masked activists/vigilantes, maybe several dozen in number, took matters into their own hands. They raided and trashed the building site then posted a video of their action on youtube.
So far there have been over 20,000 viewings of the youtube video
Will these kind of protests become more common? There are many people out there seriously pissed with the way the country's elites disdainfully flout rules and regulations and mess things up for the regular joe.
Monday, March 19, 2012
Homo neanderthalensis observed in Kyiv
On Sunday 18th March, mayoral elections were held in the small town of Obukhiv near Kyiv. There were lots of observers present because of a continuous stream of allegations of' election fraud.
But the election will be remembered for an incident that took place between the slightly built NUNS parliamentary deputy Iryna Herashchenko [who at one time had been president Yushchenko's press spokesperson], and a bull of a man, PoR deputy Petro Melnyk.
Herashchenko attended as an officially registered observer; Melnyk was apparently there as the PoR's mayoral candidate's main adviser.
After a brief dispute, Melnyk grabbed Herashchenko violently by the waist and tried to physically drive her out of the polling station. She was rescued by observers who were man-handled themselves in the scuffle. Observers from the U.S. Embassy were involved and saw what went on as well. [Video of the incident here]
At a press briefing today the leader of the Party of Regions' fraction leader Oleksandr Yefremov announced: "I have just spoken with deputy Melnyk and he says he is ready to apologize to his colleague, if she apologizes for having publicly called him [a rude name] in the polling station." [He added that physical violence is not acceptable in any form, and suggested Melnyk apologize.]
Later, Melnyk said: "Of course it was wrong that I did not conduct myself quite correctly with a woman. But Iryna Herashchenko herself was also wrong because she refused to obey the polling station commission to leave the polling station committee room, and not interfere with the work of the commission."
"In addition, on the video clip broadcast on the internet, you cannot hear she called me a boor [or lout..in Ukr 'Kham']," added Melnyk.
He does not seem to understand his absolutely inexcusable behaviour merely confirmed Herashchenko was actually being tactful just calling him a 'kham'. She has nothing to apologise for...he deserves far, far worse. Yefremov's comments reveal how out of touch he is with contemporary world attitudes.
It is an iron rule of 'F.N' not to descend to name-calling of despicable politicians so I am not going to break my rule even for the bloated neanderthal pig Melnyk. He has no place in politics..Incidentally, parliamentary deputy Melnyk is also a university rector, a doctor of economic science ...heaven help his female students...
An omen for autumn's parliamentary elections?
p.s. More on the appalling Oksana Makar rape case, and untouchable 'mazhory' from 'EUobserver' here
But the election will be remembered for an incident that took place between the slightly built NUNS parliamentary deputy Iryna Herashchenko [who at one time had been president Yushchenko's press spokesperson], and a bull of a man, PoR deputy Petro Melnyk.
Herashchenko attended as an officially registered observer; Melnyk was apparently there as the PoR's mayoral candidate's main adviser.
After a brief dispute, Melnyk grabbed Herashchenko violently by the waist and tried to physically drive her out of the polling station. She was rescued by observers who were man-handled themselves in the scuffle. Observers from the U.S. Embassy were involved and saw what went on as well. [Video of the incident here]
At a press briefing today the leader of the Party of Regions' fraction leader Oleksandr Yefremov announced: "I have just spoken with deputy Melnyk and he says he is ready to apologize to his colleague, if she apologizes for having publicly called him [a rude name] in the polling station." [He added that physical violence is not acceptable in any form, and suggested Melnyk apologize.]
Later, Melnyk said: "Of course it was wrong that I did not conduct myself quite correctly with a woman. But Iryna Herashchenko herself was also wrong because she refused to obey the polling station commission to leave the polling station committee room, and not interfere with the work of the commission."
"In addition, on the video clip broadcast on the internet, you cannot hear she called me a boor [or lout..in Ukr 'Kham']," added Melnyk.
He does not seem to understand his absolutely inexcusable behaviour merely confirmed Herashchenko was actually being tactful just calling him a 'kham'. She has nothing to apologise for...he deserves far, far worse. Yefremov's comments reveal how out of touch he is with contemporary world attitudes.
It is an iron rule of 'F.N' not to descend to name-calling of despicable politicians so I am not going to break my rule even for the bloated neanderthal pig Melnyk. He has no place in politics..Incidentally, parliamentary deputy Melnyk is also a university rector, a doctor of economic science ...heaven help his female students...
An omen for autumn's parliamentary elections?
p.s. More on the appalling Oksana Makar rape case, and untouchable 'mazhory' from 'EUobserver' here
Sunday, March 18, 2012
By their friends shall ye know them
The following has been posted on the Party of Regions' official website:
"Foreign political partners of the Party of Regions congratulated it on the XIII Congress, which took place in Kyiv on Saturday, March 17.
The congratulations on the Congress, during which it was announced the merger of the Party of Regions and "Strong Ukraine", sent:
- National Council of the Bulgarian Socialist Party;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of China;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam;
- Political Council of the Party "Yeni Azerbaijan";
- Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Party "United Russia" Boris Gryzlov;
- Chairman of "Prosperous Armenia" Gagik Tsarukyan.
Press Service of the Party of Regions"
And that's it....
Almost a 'Nobby no-mates' party then....
p.s. Other stories covered on the PoR site: "Serhiy Kivalov: Someone benefits from artificial worsening of relations between Ukraine and the Council of Europe" [?!]
"Foreign political partners of the Party of Regions congratulated it on the XIII Congress, which took place in Kyiv on Saturday, March 17.
The congratulations on the Congress, during which it was announced the merger of the Party of Regions and "Strong Ukraine", sent:
- National Council of the Bulgarian Socialist Party;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of China;
- Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam;
- Political Council of the Party "Yeni Azerbaijan";
- Chairman of the Supreme Council of the Party "United Russia" Boris Gryzlov;
- Chairman of "Prosperous Armenia" Gagik Tsarukyan.
Press Service of the Party of Regions"
And that's it....
Almost a 'Nobby no-mates' party then....
p.s. Other stories covered on the PoR site: "Serhiy Kivalov: Someone benefits from artificial worsening of relations between Ukraine and the Council of Europe" [?!]
Criminal lawlessness by 'mazhory' may eventually lead to civil disorder
Several days ago in Mykolayiv, 18-year old Oksana Makar was allegedly raped by three 'mazhory', sons of privileged elite parents, and then set on fire. She has had several limbs amputated and her life hangs in the balance. Two of the three suspects were released shortly after their arrest. Spontaneous ad-hoc protests sprung up, and as a result this diabolical event has figured prominently in news bulletins and political tv shows, and had led to much critical self-examination of Ukrainian society.
Since then, a similarly dreadful event has occurred in Simferopol.
Most Ukrainians agree that there now exists an entire caste of unruly untouchables who can simply pay off any law enforcement or judicial agency in order that their misdemeanours go unpunished. Barely a week goes by without their behaviour causing deaths amongst the innocent. Apart from the odd glib statement from ruling politicians, this shocking phenomenon remains unchecked.
Brazen flouting of the law, particularly by 'chinovnyky' and their offspring is encountered on a daily basis. Trust in the police, state prosecutors and judges is almost non existent.
My guess is the issue of law and order would figure very highly on the Ukrainian electorate's list of concerns - and yet these matters are not addressed by politicians with any of the seriousness encountered in Western democracies.
Despite being regarded of a nation of stoics, there are limits to what the man in the street will put up with. A Russian political analyst, Andrei Okara, in a 'U.P' blog, claims that recent resonant, despicable acts of violence against girls in Mykolayiv and Simferopol could be a detonator for public anger in Ukraine:
"If it were not for a student protest rally by 10 people before the regional department of Ministry of Internal Affairs' offices in Mykolayiv, the story would not have come to public prominence. Without this picket no-one would have gotten to know about it. All the detainees would have been released and the story would have been: the girl raped three boys from respectable families and then, realizing the gravity of her deed, doused himself with gasoline and set herself on fire. But the existence of a civil society ensured the events became publicly known and widely discussed," emphasized the analyst.
"These two terrible tragedies are an example of how everyday feudal reality intrudes into our lives. The cup of patience of the Ukrainian people is beginning to overflow. The story of [Yanukovych's] Mezhyhirya [palace], the story of the president's helicopter, the story of Peysazh Avenue [the brazen urban land grab of a public space in Kyiv by developers], now the story of these mazhory who raped and tried to burn a girl alive. As a result, a public vendetta against the government may spring up. This government does not know how to respond to these situations and their sole reaction - Yanukovych's social initiative, takes the form of bribing the electorate with a thousand hryvnia [in pre-election hand-outs]. Most people will recognise this as a crude attempt to buy the sympathy of voters, "said the expert.
"The latest horror was an analgous situation in Simferopol [where local residents discovered the body of a girl, that had been mauled by dogs. According to the Crimean media, the girl had been beaten, raped and left by the side of the roadway]. And every time it turns out that the children of those in government are absolutely immune from blame and punishment. It is always the victim's fault. This is a very powerful detonator for public anger and discontent which could create conditions for a revolutionary situation in Ukraine," concluded Okara.
[Note on the night of 9/10th March, three people allegedly lured 18-year-old Oksana Makar into an apartment after they had met in a bar. She was then serially raped. When the victim threatened to tell the police, one of the suspects began to strangle her. Believing that she is dead, the perpetrators carried her body to an abandoned construction site and set her fire. ]
Since then, a similarly dreadful event has occurred in Simferopol.
Most Ukrainians agree that there now exists an entire caste of unruly untouchables who can simply pay off any law enforcement or judicial agency in order that their misdemeanours go unpunished. Barely a week goes by without their behaviour causing deaths amongst the innocent. Apart from the odd glib statement from ruling politicians, this shocking phenomenon remains unchecked.
Brazen flouting of the law, particularly by 'chinovnyky' and their offspring is encountered on a daily basis. Trust in the police, state prosecutors and judges is almost non existent.
My guess is the issue of law and order would figure very highly on the Ukrainian electorate's list of concerns - and yet these matters are not addressed by politicians with any of the seriousness encountered in Western democracies.
Despite being regarded of a nation of stoics, there are limits to what the man in the street will put up with. A Russian political analyst, Andrei Okara, in a 'U.P' blog, claims that recent resonant, despicable acts of violence against girls in Mykolayiv and Simferopol could be a detonator for public anger in Ukraine:
"If it were not for a student protest rally by 10 people before the regional department of Ministry of Internal Affairs' offices in Mykolayiv, the story would not have come to public prominence. Without this picket no-one would have gotten to know about it. All the detainees would have been released and the story would have been: the girl raped three boys from respectable families and then, realizing the gravity of her deed, doused himself with gasoline and set herself on fire. But the existence of a civil society ensured the events became publicly known and widely discussed," emphasized the analyst.
"These two terrible tragedies are an example of how everyday feudal reality intrudes into our lives. The cup of patience of the Ukrainian people is beginning to overflow. The story of [Yanukovych's] Mezhyhirya [palace], the story of the president's helicopter, the story of Peysazh Avenue [the brazen urban land grab of a public space in Kyiv by developers], now the story of these mazhory who raped and tried to burn a girl alive. As a result, a public vendetta against the government may spring up. This government does not know how to respond to these situations and their sole reaction - Yanukovych's social initiative, takes the form of bribing the electorate with a thousand hryvnia [in pre-election hand-outs]. Most people will recognise this as a crude attempt to buy the sympathy of voters, "said the expert.
"The latest horror was an analgous situation in Simferopol [where local residents discovered the body of a girl, that had been mauled by dogs. According to the Crimean media, the girl had been beaten, raped and left by the side of the roadway]. And every time it turns out that the children of those in government are absolutely immune from blame and punishment. It is always the victim's fault. This is a very powerful detonator for public anger and discontent which could create conditions for a revolutionary situation in Ukraine," concluded Okara.
[Note on the night of 9/10th March, three people allegedly lured 18-year-old Oksana Makar into an apartment after they had met in a bar. She was then serially raped. When the victim threatened to tell the police, one of the suspects began to strangle her. Believing that she is dead, the perpetrators carried her body to an abandoned construction site and set her fire. ]
Monday, March 12, 2012
Lesson for Verkhovna Rada from British parliament
Last month in the British House of Commons, Labour MP Eric Joyce physically attacked four politicians in a drunken assault. He was arrested by police and charged.
After a court trial last week in which he pleaded guilty, Joyce was handed a 12-month community order. He was lucky to avoid imprisonment; fined £3,000 and told to pay £350 to each of his victims plus costs.
He was suspended from his party; today publicly apologised in the parliament chamber for his behaviour, then resigned from the Labour party.
Read more and see video of Joyce's personal parliamentary statement here. Despite his behaviour last month he remains a man of honour.
In Ukraine he could have been promoted to the cabinet of ministers - maybe as Minster of Defence, just like Dmytro Salamatin, who lead a vicious assault against opposition deputies in the Verkhovna Rada just over a year ago, resulting in several victims being hospitalised.
At the time Yanukovych dismissed the whole incident as merely a disagreement between men, emotions that boiled over....got a bit out of hand... Perhaps only a president with such a deeply violent, criminal past would not be embarrassed to appoint Salamatin to head the MoD...
More from 'F.N.' on this here
p.s. "Council of Europe examines detention conditions and ill-treatment by police in Ukraine. Jagland concerned about Tymoshenko’s health"
Today's CoE press release here
After a court trial last week in which he pleaded guilty, Joyce was handed a 12-month community order. He was lucky to avoid imprisonment; fined £3,000 and told to pay £350 to each of his victims plus costs.
He was suspended from his party; today publicly apologised in the parliament chamber for his behaviour, then resigned from the Labour party.
Read more and see video of Joyce's personal parliamentary statement here. Despite his behaviour last month he remains a man of honour.
In Ukraine he could have been promoted to the cabinet of ministers - maybe as Minster of Defence, just like Dmytro Salamatin, who lead a vicious assault against opposition deputies in the Verkhovna Rada just over a year ago, resulting in several victims being hospitalised.
At the time Yanukovych dismissed the whole incident as merely a disagreement between men, emotions that boiled over....got a bit out of hand... Perhaps only a president with such a deeply violent, criminal past would not be embarrassed to appoint Salamatin to head the MoD...
More from 'F.N.' on this here
p.s. "Council of Europe examines detention conditions and ill-treatment by police in Ukraine. Jagland concerned about Tymoshenko’s health"
Today's CoE press release here
Tymoshenko's imprisonment could affect Euro 2012?
Letter from Eurasian Transition Group to UEFA chairman about current political situation and possible influence on Euro 2012's in Ukraine this summer, signed by many EU 'top bananas' here
..."Although the UEFA is not a political institution, we know that the organization's power does not end at the football stadium. But as the EURO 2012 was and is one of the most important sportive and social events in Europe, it also gives an example, how society, European organizations and sport can have an influence on political surpression in regimes like Ukraine.
You might heard that some managers of successful European football teams already announced, that they will boycott the Ukrainian EURO 2012, not traveling to the country, even not watching it on TV.
Therefore, we would like to ask you as the President of the UEFA not to close your eyes on what is happening in the Ukraine. Please mention the issues of political suppression and injustice in public, talk about it with Ukrainian officials and the government..."
..."Although the UEFA is not a political institution, we know that the organization's power does not end at the football stadium. But as the EURO 2012 was and is one of the most important sportive and social events in Europe, it also gives an example, how society, European organizations and sport can have an influence on political surpression in regimes like Ukraine.
You might heard that some managers of successful European football teams already announced, that they will boycott the Ukrainian EURO 2012, not traveling to the country, even not watching it on TV.
Therefore, we would like to ask you as the President of the UEFA not to close your eyes on what is happening in the Ukraine. Please mention the issues of political suppression and injustice in public, talk about it with Ukrainian officials and the government..."
Friday, March 09, 2012
Who is going to pay for the pre-election carrots?
In an excellent bni analysis article, Graham Stack, explains:
"Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves, essential to supporting the country's fixed exchange rate, have fallen by nearly one-quarter since August, and are now hovering at only a fortnight over the three-month import cover regarded as minimum. With global steel prices on which Ukraine depends continuing to slide and the price of Russian imported gas soaring, it is time for Kyiv to look for external help – but that's easier said than done.
Ukraine's central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), reported March 6 that its forex reserves had fallen to only $31bn, which it said is sufficient to finance imports of goods and services for only three-and-a-half months. The central banker's rule-of-thumb says that three months import cover is a minimum to support a currency, giving Kyiv a fortnight to put things right..."
Stack concludes:
"Ukraine's best bet now – aside of course from releasing Tymoshenko and Lutsenko – is that the newly-elected Putin, looking to get off to a good start with Ukraine and his foreign policy, might now choose to soften these conditions [relating to the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas] in return for some woolly commitment by Kyiv to the Eurasian bloc.
Putin has said his first foreign visit as president would be to a CIS state and this likely means Ukraine. But Putin's inauguration is scheduled for May, so he won't make it to Kyiv in his new role for another six weeks. And with the pace of events heating up as Greece and Europe wobble, this may even prove too late for Ukraine."
The EU are in no mood to sign political-association and free-trade deals while opposition leaders remain in jail. The IMF feel the same way about additional loans for the same reason.
Meanwhile, earlier this week president Yanukovych announced a $2Bn pre-election 'blow-out' to boost Party of Regions' sagging prospects in the October 28th parliamentary elections.
Something is gonna have to give...
-----------------------------
Meanwhile the macabre Tymoshenko soap opera continues..
Deutsche Welle report:
"Tymoshenko needs treatment outside of confines of prison, say German doctors.
According to German doctors, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is so seriously ill that she needs treatment [that can only be provided] outside of prison.
Representatives of the Berlin University Hospital "Charite", who examined the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko believe that because of the severity of her illness, she needs urgent treatment, "if at all possible, outside prison". To conduct the necessary therapy according to international standards inside prison is impossible "because of its complexity"...
Ukrainian and German doctors "came to a consensus" on the diagnosis of the former prime minister. Tymoshenko feels very ill and needs immediate treatment.."
The former PM has complained of health problems for many months. All of this begs the question: "Why has she not received the best treatment possible for all of this time?
"Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves, essential to supporting the country's fixed exchange rate, have fallen by nearly one-quarter since August, and are now hovering at only a fortnight over the three-month import cover regarded as minimum. With global steel prices on which Ukraine depends continuing to slide and the price of Russian imported gas soaring, it is time for Kyiv to look for external help – but that's easier said than done.
Ukraine's central bank, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), reported March 6 that its forex reserves had fallen to only $31bn, which it said is sufficient to finance imports of goods and services for only three-and-a-half months. The central banker's rule-of-thumb says that three months import cover is a minimum to support a currency, giving Kyiv a fortnight to put things right..."
Stack concludes:
"Ukraine's best bet now – aside of course from releasing Tymoshenko and Lutsenko – is that the newly-elected Putin, looking to get off to a good start with Ukraine and his foreign policy, might now choose to soften these conditions [relating to the price Ukraine pays for Russian gas] in return for some woolly commitment by Kyiv to the Eurasian bloc.
Putin has said his first foreign visit as president would be to a CIS state and this likely means Ukraine. But Putin's inauguration is scheduled for May, so he won't make it to Kyiv in his new role for another six weeks. And with the pace of events heating up as Greece and Europe wobble, this may even prove too late for Ukraine."
The EU are in no mood to sign political-association and free-trade deals while opposition leaders remain in jail. The IMF feel the same way about additional loans for the same reason.
Meanwhile, earlier this week president Yanukovych announced a $2Bn pre-election 'blow-out' to boost Party of Regions' sagging prospects in the October 28th parliamentary elections.
Something is gonna have to give...
-----------------------------
Meanwhile the macabre Tymoshenko soap opera continues..
Deutsche Welle report:
"Tymoshenko needs treatment outside of confines of prison, say German doctors.
According to German doctors, the former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko is so seriously ill that she needs treatment [that can only be provided] outside of prison.
Representatives of the Berlin University Hospital "Charite", who examined the former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko believe that because of the severity of her illness, she needs urgent treatment, "if at all possible, outside prison". To conduct the necessary therapy according to international standards inside prison is impossible "because of its complexity"...
Ukrainian and German doctors "came to a consensus" on the diagnosis of the former prime minister. Tymoshenko feels very ill and needs immediate treatment.."
The former PM has complained of health problems for many months. All of this begs the question: "Why has she not received the best treatment possible for all of this time?
Sunday, March 04, 2012
Five EU Foreign Ministers blast Ukrainian authorities
Carl Bildt, William Hague, Karel Schwarzenberg, Radoslaw Sikorski and Guido Westerwelle - the foreign ministers of Sweden, Britain, the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany - have today written a letter to the 'New York Times'.
"We cannot, however, conceal our growing concerns regarding the state of democracy in Ukraine. Independent media and civil society organizations report pressure from the authorities.
In late 2010, criminal proceedings were started against a number of leading opposition politicians. And a year later, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for allegedly abusing her office, following a trial that has been widely criticized both in Ukraine and abroad as not meeting international standards.
Moreover, more than a dozen other opposition politicians are facing similar charges. On Feb. 27, the former minister of the interior, Yuri Lutsenko, was sentenced to four years in prison after another disappointing trial.
These trials bear the marks of politically motivated and selective justice. According to independent experts, they have been conducted in a manner that has failed to respect the principles of the rule of law and the human rights of the defendants.
These developments are incompatible with Ukraine’s own European choice. Democracy, human rights and the rule of law are the values underpinning the association agreement and Ukraine has already committed itself to them in the framework of the O.S.C.E., the Council of Europe, and also vis-Ã -vis the E.U. Thus, it is fair to say that the association agreement has been imprisoned, and the Ukrainian leadership is holding the key. "
Yanukovych has made his decision. He is prepared to pay the price of isolation rather than release his most feared political opponents from prison.
"We cannot, however, conceal our growing concerns regarding the state of democracy in Ukraine. Independent media and civil society organizations report pressure from the authorities.
In late 2010, criminal proceedings were started against a number of leading opposition politicians. And a year later, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for allegedly abusing her office, following a trial that has been widely criticized both in Ukraine and abroad as not meeting international standards.
Moreover, more than a dozen other opposition politicians are facing similar charges. On Feb. 27, the former minister of the interior, Yuri Lutsenko, was sentenced to four years in prison after another disappointing trial.
These trials bear the marks of politically motivated and selective justice. According to independent experts, they have been conducted in a manner that has failed to respect the principles of the rule of law and the human rights of the defendants.
These developments are incompatible with Ukraine’s own European choice. Democracy, human rights and the rule of law are the values underpinning the association agreement and Ukraine has already committed itself to them in the framework of the O.S.C.E., the Council of Europe, and also vis-Ã -vis the E.U. Thus, it is fair to say that the association agreement has been imprisoned, and the Ukrainian leadership is holding the key. "
Yanukovych has made his decision. He is prepared to pay the price of isolation rather than release his most feared political opponents from prison.
Saturday, March 03, 2012
Mafia state, or what?
Just over a year ago I mentioned how Viktor Yanukovych was "Building himself a private Kingdom of Monaco - in Crimea", complete with a 900 metre length of private beach along one of the most beautiful and desirable parts of the Black Sea coastline.
This beachside mini-kingdom is based around a former recreational holiday centre called 'Mis Aiya' which had previously been owned by Ukraine's national highways agency - 'UkrAvtoDor'. It was privatised at a knock-down price in the summer of 2007, just after major constructional improvements had taken place.
The purchasers are tightly connected to the two opaque shell companies, 'Tantalit' and 'Vidrodzhennya Ukrainy', who ostensibly own Yanukovych's infamous 'Mizhhirya' palace on the banks of the Dnipro riiver near Kyiv, and shell companies that own a large hunting hunting lodge, adjacent forests and hunting grounds, also near Kyiv. No-one can be absolutely sure who the true offshore-registered owner of all of this real estate is..but most reasonable observers consider it to be 'Yanukovych.. and family.
In 2006 Viktor Yanukovych was appointed head of the government for a second time, and a PoR parliamentary deputy, Volodymyr Demishkan, was appointed head of the highways agency 'UkrAvtoDor'. Almost immediately a decision was made to commence privatisation of this most desireable chunk of Crimea real estate.
Several months later, in 2007, Demishkan's son, Serhiy, was arrested, allegedly on a charge of premeditated murder. [Gruesome details from a previous blog of mine here. and an up to date report from 'K.P' here]. The victim, who had 'crossed' Demishkan jr in business deal, had a heating radiator tied to his back and was thrown into a canal to drown.
Demishkan Jr confessed to the offence when in custody, but once Yanukovych became president, he was released on bail.
Just a month ago he was found guilty of kidnapping and murder...and then released on the grounds he may be seriously ill with a terminal illness. As a rule, Ukrainian courts seldom take such factors into account when passing sentence.
LB.com journalist, Tetyana Chornovil, who describes the Mis Aiya affair in a series of recent articles, provides one example: Judge Rodion Kyreyev, who sentenced Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison last year, previously sent to prison a man suffering with hepatitis B and C, and who was HIV positive. The poor man was the only support for his elderly mother, invalid sister, and pregnant girlfriend. His crime? Stealing jewelry valued around $65.
Chornovil writes: "Was the compassion of the court shown to Serhiy Demishkan a coincidence? ...the court freed a killer whose father helped 'UkrAvtoDor' give up the highway agency's workers' holiday recreational centre...in the West such coincidences woud destroy the career of any highly-placed official.."
p.s. Just out: a new book entitled "The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin" by Masha Gessen
Read two reviews here and here
"Gessen speculates, the Russian prime minister suffers not so much from kleptomania as pleonexia, "the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others… He compensates for his compulsion by creating the identity of an honest and incorruptible civil servant."
Check out Putin's Black Sea palace here . Does Yanukovych suffer from the same affliction?
This beachside mini-kingdom is based around a former recreational holiday centre called 'Mis Aiya' which had previously been owned by Ukraine's national highways agency - 'UkrAvtoDor'. It was privatised at a knock-down price in the summer of 2007, just after major constructional improvements had taken place.
The purchasers are tightly connected to the two opaque shell companies, 'Tantalit' and 'Vidrodzhennya Ukrainy', who ostensibly own Yanukovych's infamous 'Mizhhirya' palace on the banks of the Dnipro riiver near Kyiv, and shell companies that own a large hunting hunting lodge, adjacent forests and hunting grounds, also near Kyiv. No-one can be absolutely sure who the true offshore-registered owner of all of this real estate is..but most reasonable observers consider it to be 'Yanukovych.. and family.
In 2006 Viktor Yanukovych was appointed head of the government for a second time, and a PoR parliamentary deputy, Volodymyr Demishkan, was appointed head of the highways agency 'UkrAvtoDor'. Almost immediately a decision was made to commence privatisation of this most desireable chunk of Crimea real estate.
Several months later, in 2007, Demishkan's son, Serhiy, was arrested, allegedly on a charge of premeditated murder. [Gruesome details from a previous blog of mine here. and an up to date report from 'K.P' here]. The victim, who had 'crossed' Demishkan jr in business deal, had a heating radiator tied to his back and was thrown into a canal to drown.
Demishkan Jr confessed to the offence when in custody, but once Yanukovych became president, he was released on bail.
Just a month ago he was found guilty of kidnapping and murder...and then released on the grounds he may be seriously ill with a terminal illness. As a rule, Ukrainian courts seldom take such factors into account when passing sentence.
LB.com journalist, Tetyana Chornovil, who describes the Mis Aiya affair in a series of recent articles, provides one example: Judge Rodion Kyreyev, who sentenced Yulia Tymoshenko to seven years in prison last year, previously sent to prison a man suffering with hepatitis B and C, and who was HIV positive. The poor man was the only support for his elderly mother, invalid sister, and pregnant girlfriend. His crime? Stealing jewelry valued around $65.
Chornovil writes: "Was the compassion of the court shown to Serhiy Demishkan a coincidence? ...the court freed a killer whose father helped 'UkrAvtoDor' give up the highway agency's workers' holiday recreational centre...in the West such coincidences woud destroy the career of any highly-placed official.."
p.s. Just out: a new book entitled "The Man Without A Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin" by Masha Gessen
Read two reviews here and here
"Gessen speculates, the Russian prime minister suffers not so much from kleptomania as pleonexia, "the insatiable desire to have what rightfully belongs to others… He compensates for his compulsion by creating the identity of an honest and incorruptible civil servant."
Check out Putin's Black Sea palace here . Does Yanukovych suffer from the same affliction?
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
New man at MinFin closes Yanuk's grip on state finances
The sober-minded 'Kommersant' runs a story today entitled 'Financial assistance', about the new 38-year-old Minister of Finance, Yuriy Kolobov.
Below are some portions of the article:
A powerful ally of the National Bank has appeared in the government. Yesterday, the President appointed first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Yuriy Kolobov as Minister of Finance.
According to experts, he will be responsible for the refinancing of debt, and preventing social benefits problems springing up on the eve of parliamentary elections. Political analysts believe that his appointment now gives the President full control of the country's monetary and fiscal policy.
The post of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade is still open. The main contender, Petro Poroshenko, met the president last week and has now to submit a plan for the development for the economy.
The head of the parliamentary committee on finance, banking, tax and customs policy, Vitaliy Khomutynnyk (PoR) called financier Mr. Kolobov a professional with extensive experience in banking. "He knows the problems of the financial system from the inside. As the first deputy chairman of the National Bank, Yuriy Kolobov attended our committee meetings and we had a constructive relationship. I think, in his new position he will also be effective," said Khomutynnyk.
Mr. Kolobov has worked in the National Bank about a year before that held senior positions in Ukreximbank, BTA Bank and Oshchadbank. His career before 2008 is almost unknown.
According to economic experts, in his new position Mr. Kolobov's first task is to fulfill obligations and eventually repay debts of up to $100 billion, a portion of which have to be repayed by the summer. [BTW Much more on this here: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/staring-into-the-ukrainian-economic-and-political-abyss/ ]
His predecessor, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, last week said that Ukraine would be able to fully repay foreign debts, even without assistance from the IMF.
Director of economic programs of the Razumkov Centre, Vasyll Yurchishin doubts whether further IMF lending will take place: "The IMF does not like to give money before elections."
Kolobov has to find sources of funding to improve social welfare standards - increases of which will become an integral part of autumn's parliamentary election campaign. "If he agreed to head the Finance Ministry, it means he knows what he has to do," said one commentator.
Others add that the the new finance minister will "find common ground with the banks and "persuade" them to actively buy government bonds".
"Foreign borrowing is now closed, leaving only internal resources - and these resources are primarily the money of banks. If practices of the mid-'90's are revived when the sale of government bonds was carried out in close relationship between the Treasury and the banks, a substantial increase in the flow of money to buy hryvnia and foreign currency government bonds can be expected. At that time a system of "manual control" was utilised whereby banks were interviewed, after which they could not refuse to buy government bonds. They were given a direct recommendation to buy, so that there would be no problems" according to a 'Liga.net' source.
Political analysts also believe that the appointment of 'their own man' to this key ministry finally firmly closes the president's circle of control over public finance income and expenditure.
National Bank of Ukraine chairman Sergey Arbuzov is the son of Valentina Arbuzova, who heads the VseUkrainskiy development bank, owned by the president's son, Alexander Yanukovych.
34-year-old Arbuzov and Kolobov share spectacular common career trajectories.
Viktor Yanukovych has thus concentrated all the financial, monetary and fiscal policies in the country, according to the director of the Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev.
"The [newly] constructed financial vertikal should now bolster the power vertikal, cutting off any lobbying efforts to control the budget", he said. This is especially true on the eve of parliamentary elections.
The article includes a cartoon captioned "He knows how to find solutions to problems, and senses where the financial streams are" It shows a tiny [offshore?] island with half-buried money in the sand... suggesting Yanukovych now has all of the levers of power necessary to put the squeeze on the offshore accounts in which Ukraine's richest oligarchs/politicians stash their loot.
Will Kolobov have any success in all of this? My hunch is not much.. Most banks are in a pretty anaemic state right noww...drawing a cash transfusion from them is not a good idea.
And squeezing your sponsors..?
Below are some portions of the article:
A powerful ally of the National Bank has appeared in the government. Yesterday, the President appointed first deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Yuriy Kolobov as Minister of Finance.
According to experts, he will be responsible for the refinancing of debt, and preventing social benefits problems springing up on the eve of parliamentary elections. Political analysts believe that his appointment now gives the President full control of the country's monetary and fiscal policy.
The post of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade is still open. The main contender, Petro Poroshenko, met the president last week and has now to submit a plan for the development for the economy.
The head of the parliamentary committee on finance, banking, tax and customs policy, Vitaliy Khomutynnyk (PoR) called financier Mr. Kolobov a professional with extensive experience in banking. "He knows the problems of the financial system from the inside. As the first deputy chairman of the National Bank, Yuriy Kolobov attended our committee meetings and we had a constructive relationship. I think, in his new position he will also be effective," said Khomutynnyk.
Mr. Kolobov has worked in the National Bank about a year before that held senior positions in Ukreximbank, BTA Bank and Oshchadbank. His career before 2008 is almost unknown.
According to economic experts, in his new position Mr. Kolobov's first task is to fulfill obligations and eventually repay debts of up to $100 billion, a portion of which have to be repayed by the summer. [BTW Much more on this here: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2012/02/staring-into-the-ukrainian-economic-and-political-abyss/ ]
His predecessor, Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, last week said that Ukraine would be able to fully repay foreign debts, even without assistance from the IMF.
Director of economic programs of the Razumkov Centre, Vasyll Yurchishin doubts whether further IMF lending will take place: "The IMF does not like to give money before elections."
Kolobov has to find sources of funding to improve social welfare standards - increases of which will become an integral part of autumn's parliamentary election campaign. "If he agreed to head the Finance Ministry, it means he knows what he has to do," said one commentator.
Others add that the the new finance minister will "find common ground with the banks and "persuade" them to actively buy government bonds".
"Foreign borrowing is now closed, leaving only internal resources - and these resources are primarily the money of banks. If practices of the mid-'90's are revived when the sale of government bonds was carried out in close relationship between the Treasury and the banks, a substantial increase in the flow of money to buy hryvnia and foreign currency government bonds can be expected. At that time a system of "manual control" was utilised whereby banks were interviewed, after which they could not refuse to buy government bonds. They were given a direct recommendation to buy, so that there would be no problems" according to a 'Liga.net' source.
Political analysts also believe that the appointment of 'their own man' to this key ministry finally firmly closes the president's circle of control over public finance income and expenditure.
National Bank of Ukraine chairman Sergey Arbuzov is the son of Valentina Arbuzova, who heads the VseUkrainskiy development bank, owned by the president's son, Alexander Yanukovych.
34-year-old Arbuzov and Kolobov share spectacular common career trajectories.
Viktor Yanukovych has thus concentrated all the financial, monetary and fiscal policies in the country, according to the director of the Institute of Global Strategies Vadim Karasev.
"The [newly] constructed financial vertikal should now bolster the power vertikal, cutting off any lobbying efforts to control the budget", he said. This is especially true on the eve of parliamentary elections.
The article includes a cartoon captioned "He knows how to find solutions to problems, and senses where the financial streams are" It shows a tiny [offshore?] island with half-buried money in the sand... suggesting Yanukovych now has all of the levers of power necessary to put the squeeze on the offshore accounts in which Ukraine's richest oligarchs/politicians stash their loot.
Will Kolobov have any success in all of this? My hunch is not much.. Most banks are in a pretty anaemic state right noww...drawing a cash transfusion from them is not a good idea.
And squeezing your sponsors..?
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Yanukovych unconcerned about Ukraine's isolation
The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office commented on today's 4 year sentence handed down to former Ukrainian Interior Minister, Yuriy Lutsenko thus : "The apparent political motivation behind the trial calls into question Ukraine’s commitment to a closer relationship with the European Union and runs counter to fundamental EU principles of democracy and a transparent and fair judicial process"
Similar reactions have been voice by other European capitals and multigovernmental institutions.
New Secretary of the NSDC, Andriy Kluyvev, when asked today in Brussels about Yulia Tymoshenko's imprisonment, admitted it had had a negative impact on EU-Ukraine relations, but declared unapologetically : 'criminal responsibility for crimes committed was irreversible.'
[BTW, Klyuyev's recent demotion from vice PM has caused some irritation in Party of Regions']
Clearly, Yanukovych and his pals are totally unconcerned by this negative impact - they intend to gain ever-greater control - their critics can "blow it out of their a**".
LB.com's Sonya Koshkina describes the emergence of what she calls a new 'Cold war'.
Here's a precis of some of the point she makes:
During 2010 and most of 2011 many in Europe and Washington lived under the illusion that Yanukovych dreamt of defining his place in history as a great reformer and Euro-integrator. However, as a result of the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko trials, and 'the leader's' broken promises to his European interlocutors, this illusion has been shattered. There is now serious talk about application of sanctions against some Ukrainian individuals in the Europarliament.
Relations with the USA have also become frosty - Yanukovych received a final warning from Hillary Clinton in Munich several weeks ago, but despite this, Lutsenko was today sentenced to four years inprisonment. The US ambassador had previously been denied the right to visit Tymoshenko in prison and new criminal proceedings have been opened against her too.
According to Koshkina, after Munich, the Presidential Adminstration started thinking seriously about Autumn's parliamentary elections.
In order to minimise the risk of losing, the following strategy has been devised:
Conducting a campaign of maximum pressure against the opposition to dissuade as many as possible of their candidates from standing for election.
Maximising economic pressure, e.g. by the tax authorities, on major businessmen who would be prepared to fund an opposition election campaign [this process is already well under way].
To manipulate the election laws and 'deprive the opposition of oxygen'.
If these measures do not ensure a favourable result, the elections could be postponed indefinitely.
It has been made clear to Yanukovych that if Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are not allowed to participate in the Autumn elections, they will not be considered valid in the West, so why bother holding them at all?
In order to compensate for the huge deficits which would have been filled by no-longer available overseas borrowings, those at the top of Ukraine's 'Forbe's list' are to be squeezed. Quite what the reaction of these guys will be, Koshkina does not say...
China could also be a source of funds, if Ukraine's farmlands were provided as collateral.
Similar reactions have been voice by other European capitals and multigovernmental institutions.
New Secretary of the NSDC, Andriy Kluyvev, when asked today in Brussels about Yulia Tymoshenko's imprisonment, admitted it had had a negative impact on EU-Ukraine relations, but declared unapologetically : 'criminal responsibility for crimes committed was irreversible.'
[BTW, Klyuyev's recent demotion from vice PM has caused some irritation in Party of Regions']
Clearly, Yanukovych and his pals are totally unconcerned by this negative impact - they intend to gain ever-greater control - their critics can "blow it out of their a**".
LB.com's Sonya Koshkina describes the emergence of what she calls a new 'Cold war'.
Here's a precis of some of the point she makes:
During 2010 and most of 2011 many in Europe and Washington lived under the illusion that Yanukovych dreamt of defining his place in history as a great reformer and Euro-integrator. However, as a result of the Tymoshenko and Lutsenko trials, and 'the leader's' broken promises to his European interlocutors, this illusion has been shattered. There is now serious talk about application of sanctions against some Ukrainian individuals in the Europarliament.
Relations with the USA have also become frosty - Yanukovych received a final warning from Hillary Clinton in Munich several weeks ago, but despite this, Lutsenko was today sentenced to four years inprisonment. The US ambassador had previously been denied the right to visit Tymoshenko in prison and new criminal proceedings have been opened against her too.
According to Koshkina, after Munich, the Presidential Adminstration started thinking seriously about Autumn's parliamentary elections.
In order to minimise the risk of losing, the following strategy has been devised:
Conducting a campaign of maximum pressure against the opposition to dissuade as many as possible of their candidates from standing for election.
Maximising economic pressure, e.g. by the tax authorities, on major businessmen who would be prepared to fund an opposition election campaign [this process is already well under way].
To manipulate the election laws and 'deprive the opposition of oxygen'.
If these measures do not ensure a favourable result, the elections could be postponed indefinitely.
It has been made clear to Yanukovych that if Tymoshenko and Lutsenko are not allowed to participate in the Autumn elections, they will not be considered valid in the West, so why bother holding them at all?
In order to compensate for the huge deficits which would have been filled by no-longer available overseas borrowings, those at the top of Ukraine's 'Forbe's list' are to be squeezed. Quite what the reaction of these guys will be, Koshkina does not say...
China could also be a source of funds, if Ukraine's farmlands were provided as collateral.
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Reshuffles will not help Ukraine
I can recommend this OSW article on the recent reshuffles in the Ukrainian government as prelude to Autumn's parliamentary elections in the country.
However, the article claims that for Andriy Klyuvev, who was recently demoted[?] from deputy PM to Secretary to the post of the National Security and Defence Council, [See previous F.N. blog on this topic], the "main task at the NSDC will be to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this autumn, which proves that he is still trusted by Viktor Yanukovych."
In Friday night's big TV interview, Yanukovych said that Klyuyev will not be heading the Party of Regions' election headquarters even though he was one of the main architects of this political project.
The OSW article claims "A parallel goal for President Yanukovych is to contribute to the growing significance of ‘the Family’ and at the same time to preserve a certain balance of influences of individual oligarch groupings within his inner circle and to build his position as an arbiter between them. The oligarchs are too strong for the president to be able to rule without giving due respect to their interests. On the other hand, allowing one of the oligarch groups to gain a clear advantage over the other poses the risk of weakening the president’s position.." and the emergence of conflicts.."
The weakening of Klyuyev and 'confederation of Donetsk clans' in favour of 'the Family' and the RosUkrEnergo lobby could turn out to be a major miscalculation.
In another 'L.B.' article, Vitaliy Pornikov also discusses the recent reshuffle, but he concludes: "To overcome these [economic] problems, redistribution [of power] amongst the clans is not what is required. Nor is the victory of one group over another. And not even the appearance of a decorative professional [like Poroshenko] in the government. Even a supra-party government of professionals will not now save the country.
To overcome the problems, a new government is required, one that is not only merely competent, but one that has gained trust. A government that will be trusted both inside the country, in the West and in the East.
However, the article claims that for Andriy Klyuvev, who was recently demoted[?] from deputy PM to Secretary to the post of the National Security and Defence Council, [See previous F.N. blog on this topic], the "main task at the NSDC will be to prepare the Party of Regions for the elections this autumn, which proves that he is still trusted by Viktor Yanukovych."
In Friday night's big TV interview, Yanukovych said that Klyuyev will not be heading the Party of Regions' election headquarters even though he was one of the main architects of this political project.
The OSW article claims "A parallel goal for President Yanukovych is to contribute to the growing significance of ‘the Family’ and at the same time to preserve a certain balance of influences of individual oligarch groupings within his inner circle and to build his position as an arbiter between them. The oligarchs are too strong for the president to be able to rule without giving due respect to their interests. On the other hand, allowing one of the oligarch groups to gain a clear advantage over the other poses the risk of weakening the president’s position.." and the emergence of conflicts.."
The weakening of Klyuyev and 'confederation of Donetsk clans' in favour of 'the Family' and the RosUkrEnergo lobby could turn out to be a major miscalculation.
In another 'L.B.' article, Vitaliy Pornikov also discusses the recent reshuffle, but he concludes: "To overcome these [economic] problems, redistribution [of power] amongst the clans is not what is required. Nor is the victory of one group over another. And not even the appearance of a decorative professional [like Poroshenko] in the government. Even a supra-party government of professionals will not now save the country.
To overcome the problems, a new government is required, one that is not only merely competent, but one that has gained trust. A government that will be trusted both inside the country, in the West and in the East.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Opinion hardening - Tymoshenko is being maltreated
After medical investigations and scans last November it was generally agreed that the imprisoned former PM Yulia Tymoshenko was suffering from a herniated disc in her spine.
Treatment for this frequently painful condition varies from 'Rest and Activity Modification', 'Ice and Heat Application', 'Therapy'...prescription of various medications...steroid injections ...through to various surgical procedures, depending on the condition of the patient and the diagnosis of physicians.
I have posted two previous blogs [here and here] about what I consider Ukrainian authorities' demonstratively brutal treatment of Tymoshenko.
Several days ago she was examined by a team of German and Canadian doctors - but as usual, the Ukrainian authorities have tried to muddy the waters.
Attempts by Ukrainian Minister of Health and PoR spokesmen to 'rubbish' the three Canadian doctors who examined her in advance of their diagnosis being made known prompted a strong reaction from the Canadian Ambassador.
Some PoR spokesmen have suggested that Tymoshenko is faking her illness, adding that maybe it would be good idea if a psychiatrist was also summoned...
Statements from Ukraine's penitentiary service usually declare that Tymoshenko's state of health is satisfactory. and that no surgical procedures are necessary.
However, they recently admittted they cannot exclude the possibility that an operation may be required to treat her condition .
The only comment thus far from the two emininent Berlin doctors has been: "The sitation with the state of her health is very serious."
Today 'Kyiv Post' reports: [Zuzana] Roithova, former healthcare minister of the Czech Republic and a member of the European People's Party which has long supported Tymoshenko, visited Kiev this week and saw part of Tymoshenko's medical records dating back to November 2011.
"(The record) clearly shows that even then the medical findings concerning the lumbar spine area required proper treatment with anaesthetics, followed by appropriate rest and a further decision on possible surgical solution following more examinations," Roithova said in a statement.
"That would have been the standard procedure. Instead, however, she was deprived of her supportive crutches, she spent endless hours interrogated and was even temporarily deprived of the painkillers."
Roithova said she would "be taking much more seriously the concerns of Tymoshenko's family, who fear that Yulia Tymoshenko could be exposed to toxic substances so she would succumb to the pressure upon her".
"Yulia Tymoshenko's health raises concerns that she has been maltreated while being in prison," she said."
Apart from sadistic pleasure and cruel demonstration to intimidate politicial enemies, I fail to see what else Yanukovych and his thugs intend to gain from this..
Treatment for this frequently painful condition varies from 'Rest and Activity Modification', 'Ice and Heat Application', 'Therapy'...prescription of various medications...steroid injections ...through to various surgical procedures, depending on the condition of the patient and the diagnosis of physicians.
I have posted two previous blogs [here and here] about what I consider Ukrainian authorities' demonstratively brutal treatment of Tymoshenko.
Several days ago she was examined by a team of German and Canadian doctors - but as usual, the Ukrainian authorities have tried to muddy the waters.
Attempts by Ukrainian Minister of Health and PoR spokesmen to 'rubbish' the three Canadian doctors who examined her in advance of their diagnosis being made known prompted a strong reaction from the Canadian Ambassador.
Some PoR spokesmen have suggested that Tymoshenko is faking her illness, adding that maybe it would be good idea if a psychiatrist was also summoned...
Statements from Ukraine's penitentiary service usually declare that Tymoshenko's state of health is satisfactory. and that no surgical procedures are necessary.
However, they recently admittted they cannot exclude the possibility that an operation may be required to treat her condition .
The only comment thus far from the two emininent Berlin doctors has been: "The sitation with the state of her health is very serious."
Today 'Kyiv Post' reports: [Zuzana] Roithova, former healthcare minister of the Czech Republic and a member of the European People's Party which has long supported Tymoshenko, visited Kiev this week and saw part of Tymoshenko's medical records dating back to November 2011.
"(The record) clearly shows that even then the medical findings concerning the lumbar spine area required proper treatment with anaesthetics, followed by appropriate rest and a further decision on possible surgical solution following more examinations," Roithova said in a statement.
"That would have been the standard procedure. Instead, however, she was deprived of her supportive crutches, she spent endless hours interrogated and was even temporarily deprived of the painkillers."
Roithova said she would "be taking much more seriously the concerns of Tymoshenko's family, who fear that Yulia Tymoshenko could be exposed to toxic substances so she would succumb to the pressure upon her".
"Yulia Tymoshenko's health raises concerns that she has been maltreated while being in prison," she said."
Apart from sadistic pleasure and cruel demonstration to intimidate politicial enemies, I fail to see what else Yanukovych and his thugs intend to gain from this..
Monday, February 20, 2012
Ossetian presidential election turmoil
There have been very few reports in the mass media about the latest turmoil in South Ossetia. Below is a small portion from an excellent report by Anna Nemtsova published in 'The Daily Beast'
"A few months ago, the republic [of South Ossetia]'s former minister of education, Alla Dzhioyeva, was joyfully celebrated as the first woman to win a presidential election in the long-suffering local conflict zones of the Caucasus.
During the election, Dzhioyeva—an independent candidate—and her team had opened up an acute discussion of the Kremlin's failed promises to reconstruct the republic, of massive bureaucratic corruption, and billions of rubles that disappeared on the way to South Ossetia.
Excited about the idea of the first free election after the August 2008 war, more people voted for Dzhioyeva than the Kremlin-backed candidate. She received a copy of the election commission report confirming that she had won by a 16 percent margin. Moscow had drastically miscalculated.
The drama that followed brought blood and violence to the enclave that Russia went to war to protect. Instead of letting the ruined republic enjoy their independent candidate, a local court annulled Dzhioyeva's victory.
[Note: Some reports say their Supreme court annulled the election result because of 'irregularites'... Dzhioyeva was then drawn into negotiations with acting president, the Russian Vadim Brovtsev - who was nominated by the Kremlin despite having no previous connection to South Ossetia. But Brovtsev failed to keep his side of their agreement...LEvko]
This pushed thousands of her supporters to the streets to protest. "An active civic position and the sense that their opinion was being ignored brought people out," said Varvara Pakhomenko, an analyst with International Crisis Group. "By now South Ossetians probably feel they have become hostages of recognition."
To stop the uprising, the Moscow-backed acting president ordered Dzhioyeva arrested. In early February, dozens of men in balaclavas allegedly broke into her house and beat Dzhioyeva's closest family, supporters, whoever tried to protect her. The last that her brother Konstantin remembered of that night's horror, he says, was his sister's unconscious body being thrown into a military truck...."
More at the link above.
Journalist Vataliy Portnikov describes the situation thus:
"For Georgia, South Ossetia is occupied territory. For residents of South Ossetia it is an independent republic. But in reality it is a colony of Russia; just a colony for use as a propaganda demonstration of their own greatness.
This is why the colony is managed by an emissary from Moscow. And no matter how the Ossetians vote, the only president there will be one that is approved by Moscow. This is why all the stolen money for restoring the broken roads and emergency facilities is stolen, and why there is so much poverty and hopelessness.
People live this way in a many regions of Russia intself. But at least there no one cheats them or says that they can decide something."
P.s. Nemstova's article was elsewhere entitled: 'Did Kremlin thugs attack Alla Dzhioyeva?'
All of the above has got me thinking about Yanukovych's latest appointments... and parliamentary elections later this year in Ukraine..
"A few months ago, the republic [of South Ossetia]'s former minister of education, Alla Dzhioyeva, was joyfully celebrated as the first woman to win a presidential election in the long-suffering local conflict zones of the Caucasus.
During the election, Dzhioyeva—an independent candidate—and her team had opened up an acute discussion of the Kremlin's failed promises to reconstruct the republic, of massive bureaucratic corruption, and billions of rubles that disappeared on the way to South Ossetia.
Excited about the idea of the first free election after the August 2008 war, more people voted for Dzhioyeva than the Kremlin-backed candidate. She received a copy of the election commission report confirming that she had won by a 16 percent margin. Moscow had drastically miscalculated.
The drama that followed brought blood and violence to the enclave that Russia went to war to protect. Instead of letting the ruined republic enjoy their independent candidate, a local court annulled Dzhioyeva's victory.
[Note: Some reports say their Supreme court annulled the election result because of 'irregularites'... Dzhioyeva was then drawn into negotiations with acting president, the Russian Vadim Brovtsev - who was nominated by the Kremlin despite having no previous connection to South Ossetia. But Brovtsev failed to keep his side of their agreement...LEvko]
This pushed thousands of her supporters to the streets to protest. "An active civic position and the sense that their opinion was being ignored brought people out," said Varvara Pakhomenko, an analyst with International Crisis Group. "By now South Ossetians probably feel they have become hostages of recognition."
To stop the uprising, the Moscow-backed acting president ordered Dzhioyeva arrested. In early February, dozens of men in balaclavas allegedly broke into her house and beat Dzhioyeva's closest family, supporters, whoever tried to protect her. The last that her brother Konstantin remembered of that night's horror, he says, was his sister's unconscious body being thrown into a military truck...."
More at the link above.
Journalist Vataliy Portnikov describes the situation thus:
"For Georgia, South Ossetia is occupied territory. For residents of South Ossetia it is an independent republic. But in reality it is a colony of Russia; just a colony for use as a propaganda demonstration of their own greatness.
This is why the colony is managed by an emissary from Moscow. And no matter how the Ossetians vote, the only president there will be one that is approved by Moscow. This is why all the stolen money for restoring the broken roads and emergency facilities is stolen, and why there is so much poverty and hopelessness.
People live this way in a many regions of Russia intself. But at least there no one cheats them or says that they can decide something."
P.s. Nemstova's article was elsewhere entitled: 'Did Kremlin thugs attack Alla Dzhioyeva?'
All of the above has got me thinking about Yanukovych's latest appointments... and parliamentary elections later this year in Ukraine..
Dissapointed Klyuyev's role may be pivotal at election time
President Yanukovych's transfer of one of his closest PoR colleagues, 'partner in crime', Andriy Klyuyev, from deputy PM to Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council, has caused much speculation. Yulia Mostova in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' suggests Klyuyev's first reaction would have been that of dissapointment and dismay. He was one of the favourites to step into PM Mykola Azarov' shoes when he eventually goes, and possibly may have been promised the top cabinet job by 'el presidente' himself in the past.
Mostova suggests that the president is counting on the 'demoted' Klyuyev to 'prove himself' and create an impact in the oncoming parliamentary election campaign, which in any case is predicted to be very tough and dirty. The reward would be high.
Klyuev is a very bright boy - has cordial contacts, even with leaders of the opposition. He is well thought of in Europe - he had done good work behind the scenes preparing the as-yet-uninitalled EU/Ukraine Association Agreement, so his transfer to the NSDC was a puzzlement to his EU interlocutors.
'Tyzhden' speculates in an unpublished article [see previous blog] that if the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled this Autumn are poor for the ruling authorities, leading oligarchs will propose the president stands down in the 2015 presidential elections, and under a guarantee of immunity, nominates another candidate. [Andriy Klyuyev and his brother also regularly figure in lists of wealthiest Ukrainians.]
Yanukovych may well feel the only sure guarantee of avoiding any trouble would be to remain in power - hence his determined efforts to ensure the Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. police], Ministry of Defence, and Security Service of Ukraine are headed by firm loyalists. Klyuyev and the NSDC will be pivotal if the president postpones the elections and declares some kind of martial law situation, .
Mostova suggests that the president is counting on the 'demoted' Klyuyev to 'prove himself' and create an impact in the oncoming parliamentary election campaign, which in any case is predicted to be very tough and dirty. The reward would be high.
Klyuev is a very bright boy - has cordial contacts, even with leaders of the opposition. He is well thought of in Europe - he had done good work behind the scenes preparing the as-yet-uninitalled EU/Ukraine Association Agreement, so his transfer to the NSDC was a puzzlement to his EU interlocutors.
'Tyzhden' speculates in an unpublished article [see previous blog] that if the results of the parliamentary elections scheduled this Autumn are poor for the ruling authorities, leading oligarchs will propose the president stands down in the 2015 presidential elections, and under a guarantee of immunity, nominates another candidate. [Andriy Klyuyev and his brother also regularly figure in lists of wealthiest Ukrainians.]
Yanukovych may well feel the only sure guarantee of avoiding any trouble would be to remain in power - hence his determined efforts to ensure the Ministry of Internal Affairs [i.e. police], Ministry of Defence, and Security Service of Ukraine are headed by firm loyalists. Klyuyev and the NSDC will be pivotal if the president postpones the elections and declares some kind of martial law situation, .
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Yanukovych preparing several scenarios in lead-up to Autumn VR elections?
During last Friday's 'ShusterLive' show, the transfer of former deputy PM Andriy Klyuyev to the chair of the National Security and Defence Council head by presidential decree was discussed. For over 10 years now Klyuyev has probably been Party of Regions' smartest political manager and organiser.
Chief-editor of the LB.ua site, Sonya Koshkina expressed the view that in his new position Klyuyev will have greater opportunity to successfully manage Party of Regions' campaign for the parliamentary election scheduled to take place next Autumn, and would also be ideally placed to manage the country's security forces in order to produce the 'required election result'. [PoR's ratings are currently in the low to mid teens... and falling.]
But, in her opinion, there is a possibility parliamentary elections could be cancelled or be postponed indefinitely. The NSDC, in close collaboration with the President, could even declare a state of emergency in the country.
Koshkina pointed out that in Europe opinion is hardening that if Yulia Tymoshenko is not free to take part in the elections then they will not be considered valid in any case...so why bother?
[Note: Messing about with election dates is not new:
On February 16, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada cancelled all Ukrainian local election dates original set for May 30, 2010. A new date was not set but Members of Parliament expected new local elections in the spring of 2011. On April 2, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada set early local elections in a number of cities, towns and villages for June 20, 2010. According to opposition lawmaker Mykola Katerynchuk (Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc faction) the voting results proved that the Party of Regions intends to extend its influence over local government bodies, as the faction did not support elections in any of those regions where they already had a majority.
Late April 2010 President Viktor Yanukovych expected local elections in Ukraine to take place in 2011. Late May 2010 Yanukovych stated that local elections should be held next autumn. Yanukovych also called for these elections to be based on the majority representation system and stressed the need to adopt the relevant laws.
On July 1, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada scheduled the election for Sunday, October 31, 2010. On July 11 lawmakers approved the bill on the procedure for holding the elections. Source
In April 2007, in an attempt to resolve a political crisis in Ukraine, President Yushchenko issued a constitutionally highly dubious decree, and dissolved Ukraine's parliament. Fresh elections took place at the end of September that year. Source]
The latest edition of 'Tyzhden' weekly runs an article entitled: 'Cadres decide everything?' "The new appointments heading the Security Service of Ukraine [SBU] and Ministry of Defence are evidence the president does not trust the 'endless cadre of reserves' that Party of Regions traditionally boast of." The article predicts other figures, distant from PoR but 'recommended by authoritative members close to president', may soon be appointed to other strategically important positions. In other words, 'Lidder' as he is called in PoR correspondence, is distancing himself from his own party and building his own power 'vertikal'..there as rumblings of internal discontent already amongst senior party paymasters.
'Tyzhden'also runs another article entitled 'They are preparing to give [their opponents] one in the face' which describes how the authorities intend to use 'adminresurs' manipulations and falsifications in the run-up to the 2012 parliamentary elections. Their intention to do this was clearly signalled by Roman Zabzaliuk's bribery recordings [ see previous F.N. blog]
Unfortunately these two articles can only be read on the net at the links above. 'Tyzhden' has been withdrawn from sale for reasons, as yet, not explained...
p.s. The prosecutor-general says his office is not compentent to investigate alleged bribery of deputies in the V.R. In other words, carry on as normal...
Chief-editor of the LB.ua site, Sonya Koshkina expressed the view that in his new position Klyuyev will have greater opportunity to successfully manage Party of Regions' campaign for the parliamentary election scheduled to take place next Autumn, and would also be ideally placed to manage the country's security forces in order to produce the 'required election result'. [PoR's ratings are currently in the low to mid teens... and falling.]
But, in her opinion, there is a possibility parliamentary elections could be cancelled or be postponed indefinitely. The NSDC, in close collaboration with the President, could even declare a state of emergency in the country.
Koshkina pointed out that in Europe opinion is hardening that if Yulia Tymoshenko is not free to take part in the elections then they will not be considered valid in any case...so why bother?
[Note: Messing about with election dates is not new:
On February 16, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada cancelled all Ukrainian local election dates original set for May 30, 2010. A new date was not set but Members of Parliament expected new local elections in the spring of 2011. On April 2, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada set early local elections in a number of cities, towns and villages for June 20, 2010. According to opposition lawmaker Mykola Katerynchuk (Our Ukraine–People's Self-Defense Bloc faction) the voting results proved that the Party of Regions intends to extend its influence over local government bodies, as the faction did not support elections in any of those regions where they already had a majority.
Late April 2010 President Viktor Yanukovych expected local elections in Ukraine to take place in 2011. Late May 2010 Yanukovych stated that local elections should be held next autumn. Yanukovych also called for these elections to be based on the majority representation system and stressed the need to adopt the relevant laws.
On July 1, 2010 the Verkhovna Rada scheduled the election for Sunday, October 31, 2010. On July 11 lawmakers approved the bill on the procedure for holding the elections. Source
In April 2007, in an attempt to resolve a political crisis in Ukraine, President Yushchenko issued a constitutionally highly dubious decree, and dissolved Ukraine's parliament. Fresh elections took place at the end of September that year. Source]
The latest edition of 'Tyzhden' weekly runs an article entitled: 'Cadres decide everything?' "The new appointments heading the Security Service of Ukraine [SBU] and Ministry of Defence are evidence the president does not trust the 'endless cadre of reserves' that Party of Regions traditionally boast of." The article predicts other figures, distant from PoR but 'recommended by authoritative members close to president', may soon be appointed to other strategically important positions. In other words, 'Lidder' as he is called in PoR correspondence, is distancing himself from his own party and building his own power 'vertikal'..there as rumblings of internal discontent already amongst senior party paymasters.
'Tyzhden'also runs another article entitled 'They are preparing to give [their opponents] one in the face' which describes how the authorities intend to use 'adminresurs' manipulations and falsifications in the run-up to the 2012 parliamentary elections. Their intention to do this was clearly signalled by Roman Zabzaliuk's bribery recordings [ see previous F.N. blog]
Unfortunately these two articles can only be read on the net at the links above. 'Tyzhden' has been withdrawn from sale for reasons, as yet, not explained...
p.s. The prosecutor-general says his office is not compentent to investigate alleged bribery of deputies in the V.R. In other words, carry on as normal...
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