Monday, January 16, 2006

Advice for Yulia

A recent Opinion Poll on the 'Korespondent' internet site [a staid and reliable source of information] asked readers for their opinion of the gas crisis compromise.

  • 19% thought it was a victory for Ukraine
  • 20% a victory for Russia,
  • 10% a compromise for both sides,
  • 12% a forced step for both sides,
  • 20% a staged stunt, and
  • 19% said time will tell.

In other words the Ukrainian electorate's opinions are split, and they are as confused as everyone else. Readers are currently being asked if they support the sacking of PM Yekhanurov,

  • 19% say yes,
  • 72% say no,
  • 9% are indifferent.

Although not scientific, these OP results should be noted immediately by Yulia T and BYuT, and acted upon. Unfortunately "bringing down" Yekhanurov and his Cabinet in the VR was a big mistake, which cannot now be repaired. But they should leave the gas question for now, set up an investigative commission, anything, but leave it. There is no political mileage to be gained pursuing the matter further. They should focus on trying to win an election, not solve the gas problem - this can only be done when in power. Election campaigns have to be paced, like a long distance race, and won by telling people what they want to hear.

Yulia has often been accused of being a populist, she should start behaving like one, or she'll slip further in the ratings.

The official BYuT site quotes a seasoned party member Volodymyr Yavorivskyi as saying, during a visit to the town of Lutsk today , "We were perfectly aware that our rating after this vote [in the VR to dismiss the PM and cabinet] will dip. We consciously took this step because to us national interests are far more important than our personal ratings."

"We thought to demand one thing - the denounciation of this cabbalistic [gas] agreement, but not the dismissal of the Cabinet of Ministers."

But surely getting into power is paramount, because you can't change anything if you're not in power...


Anonymous said...

"They should focus on trying to win an election"

What? This is EXACTLY what she and the party are trying doing.
Look at the data - in the polls surged ahead, inc. her visibility, press/air time and "credibility" as opposition leader, etc. What's not to like?
The reality that the actions (sacking govt) are not running parallel with the best interests of the country but are when gunning for the elections.

My reading of your post is that you are a supporter of Yulia's who would want to see her do well in the coming election, and as a supporter are biased reagarding her actions (ahem, whitewashing). Scott, I thought better of you. Disappointed.

LEvko said...

Thanks for your comment, which I welcome. I would like NSNU do well in the election, and I would like to see BYuT do reasonably well also. My ideal result would be an NSNU government and a BYuT/Socialist opposition in the VR, but realistically this won't happen because of a largely impregnable block-vote for Regiony in the east.

The likelyhood is that an NSNU/BYuT, Regiony/BYuT, or Regiony/NSNU coalition will command the next VR; or, heaven forbid, Regiony, and the smaller fry will have an absolute majority. l earnestly hope that it is the first of these possibilities. Yulia's current targetting of Yushchenko's and Yekhanurov's handling of the gas crisis reduces the likelyhood of the election results I'm hoping for. But BYuT are more likely to win over Regiony voters, than are NSNU.

The OP's I quoted show that Yulia's 'gunning' down of Yekhanurov was not considered wise by the electorate, and as I said, because of the spread in electorate opinion on the matter, there is not much electoral mileage to be gained in persuing the gas business further, so she should drop it, even though her fears may well be valid. These are echoed in a detailed article in the latest 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya,' one of the most respected periodicals in Ukraine, which concludes that the signature of Fuel and Energy minister, O. Ivchenko should be removed from the 4th January gas agreement. The OP I quoted may be interpreted as indicating that Yekhanurov is a big asset for NSNU too.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for providing this public opinion poll data - very interesting. I've reblogged this post to DemoBlog, a blog of global democracy struggles. - Mary (Editor in Chief)