Here we go again..

Tonight on TV president Yushchenko announced that he is terminating the activity of the sixth convocation of the Verkhovna Rada and calling for early parliamentary elections.

"I'm convinced, deeply convinced, the democratic coalition was ruined by one thing - human ambition - the ambition of one person [Yu.T]. A greed for power, a divergence in values, the preference of personal interests over national interests," explained the president.

A date for the new elections has not yet been determined.

Earlier today BYuT parliamentary deputy Ostap Semerak, on BYuT's official site stated that early elections would only be possible on the condition that parliament accepts a decision on their financing and on changes to election law.

"The signing of an ukaz on conducting [parliamentary] elections does not mean they will take place....If there is no concensus amongst deputies about fresh elections then they will not take place." he said.

Another BYuT deputy claimed that the decision to dismiss the VR will only take effect after the official publication of the president's ukaz. "There's an abyss between the ukaz of the president and its realisation. To hurdle over it some people will have to work very hard," he said. BYuT intend to mount a legal challenge on Yushchenko's decision.

Viktor Yanukovych announced that PoR were against fresh elections, but it seems they have they agreed to go along with them. "Having lead the country to ruin, today's authorities have driven society to early parliamentary elections again. PoR were against this...PoR proposed coming to an agreement, not about government posts, but about improving the lot of our people and developing the economy. However, the 'oranges' were only interested in chairs. They wanted so many governmental chairs that a whole furniture factory couldn't satisfy their needs," said Yanukovych [not a bad quip]

'Segodnya' speculates that at least students will not be complaining. During last summer's VR elections those who were employed to wave party flags, attend meetings and distribute election leaflets were paid 100-150 hryven per day. This year, because of the seasonal factor, they will be demanding 200-250 hryven.

LEvko says 70 - 80% of the electorate do not understand the need for fresh elections. Most realize they will not change much anyhow. Any president who ignores this widely-held views of the electorate is taking a big risk..

More pathetic innuendo from Yushchenko..

Today [Tuesday] president Yushchenko conducted a meeting with the NUNS VR fraction.

According to an official report on the president's website: "At the start of the meeting the head of state again gave his assessment of events that took place in the VR on 2nd September, and called them a national betrayal...The president emphasized that "the scenario, which was delivered from abroad, had as its aim to turn the national course through 180 degrees."

He declared that the democratic coalition in its previous form has shown itself to be, in a current political situation, superfluous, "because the plan which they dreamed up against Ukraine, was much more important than negotiations on the daily parliamentary agenda, the Georgia question, the Black Sea fleet."

'Korrespondent' speculates that matters could now develop in three possible ways.

The orange coalition could be re-established again, or BYuT could join forces with PoR - but neither of these is likely.

Yushchenko could dissolve parliament in the near future. A snap December election would primarily be a two-horse race with a Yushchenko-aligned bloc attempting to overcome the 3% threshold.

Or a majority coalition fails to be formed, but Yushchenko does not dismiss parliament. Dissolution of parliament is an alternative for him, but he is not duty-bound to do this. PM Tymoshenko remains in power.

LEvko thinks that Yushchenko has now all but nailed his colours to the mast. If he fails to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections he will be seen as a weak-willed choker. If he does 'go for it' he faces major challenges on the legality of such a move, and possibly a major consitutional crisis.

With the current economic crisis swirling around the globe a functioning parliament is vital for any necessary economic decisions to be debated and ruled upon. The president and his secretariat, which employs well over a thousand staff have no game plan - apart from trotting out vague innuendo..

Election in midst of global crisis?

BYuT spin doctors say "An appeal by prominent members of Ukraine's business community, to avoid a pre-term parliamentary election, appears to have gone unheeded as President Viktor Yushchenko declared his intention to hold consultations on the possible dissolution of parliament on 7 October. On Saturday, his press office confirmed he will give lawmakers until next Tuesday to agree a new coalition and thereafter may dissolve parliament and call the third parliamentary election in as many years."

Yulia Tymoshenko, during her 3rd October press conference following her visit to Moscow, commented on Yushchenko's threat thus: "When the world is being torn apart by a financial crisis it is absolutely irresponsible to cast into political chaos parliament, the government, the [Ukrainian] politicum, the country. I will never support this."

In all of the world's major democracies political parties are rallying together to try and save their countries' citizens from what could be the greatest global finacial calamity in over 60 years. But president Yushchenko will probably dismiss parliament soon and create even more political turmoil...crazy.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's steel-makers, vital to the economy, are in deep trouble.

Tymoshenko's Freudian slip?

A week or so ago I mentioned allegations that president Yushchenko had been selling and supplying illicit Ukrainian-made arms to his pal Makheil Saakashvili at knock-down prices, and that a recent explosion at an ammunition dump may have provided 'cover'.

The sale of Ukrainian arms to Georgia was a thread that ran through Tymoshenko's otherwise cordial talks with president Putin last Thursday.

At their joint press conference Putin said, " We do not know, who made the decision on deliveries of special [military] technology and arms during the conflict. We do not know..but whoever it was, this person has made a huge mistake...it is called getting directly involved in an armed confrontation, pitting the Russian and Ukrainian nations against one another. And if we confirm this, we will break-off contacts with those people which permitted this."

Although Tymoshenko admitted all arms sales are under the control of the president and National Security and Defence Council, she was most cautious in her replies, saying that allegations in these matters have not yet been confirmed, and added that the VR had set up a 'special' investigative committee to investigate further.

But whether intentionally or not, she made a significant slip. The VR has in fact set up a 'temporary' investigative committee, not a 'special' one. According to the Constitution, a 'special' committee is created only for one purpose – the initiation of procedures for impeachment..

Commentators agree that following Tymoshenko's visit to Moscow, Putin has a new favourite in Ukraine -Yu.V.T.

The brave rides...the squaw can walk..

The dispute between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko over who would be using 'the plane' yesterday even made the 'London Times'

Tymoshenko was forced to fly for her important rendezvous with Putin in Moscow yesterday in an 8-seater Slovenian-crewed Cessna after the president 'pulled rank' on account of his aircraft being grounded, and used her plane to fly to Lviv.

'Segodnya' claims Yushchenko's plane was airworthy after all, so there was no reason, apart from bloody-mindedness and sabotage, for him to grab the premier's plane. Other newspapers make the same claim.

LEvko says not too many years ago Tymoshenko, during her United Energy Systems of Ukraine days, used to brag about her company owning an entire airline - SES-Avia...Oh happy days..

Yushchenko's real intentions

Persistent speculation continues that despite agreement to reassemble the orange coalition president Yushchenko intends to dissolve the Ukrainian parliament and sack PM Tymoshenko [yet again].

If the coalition deal is not finalized by midnight Thursday, the president could dissolve parliament.

Statements by him during a press conference in Lviv today show how deep is his mistrust of Tymoshenko. When speaking of the BYuT/NUNS coalition he said: "The spirit of coalition agreement had less value for the premier than the paper it was written on. It's disgusting ['Tse nabrydlo' according to one version]."

[The president's own website carries the same quote in a report on his visit to Lviv entitled: 'The president doubts the sincerity of the intentions of coalition partners during today's voting in parliament', but 'Tse nabrydlo' is replaced by 'this is political charlatanism '.. Hmm.. ]

The article claims that although he welcomes today's cancellation of non constitutional decisions accepted in parliament in early September [by the combined votes of BYuT and PoR], he asks, "What is the guarantee that after 10 days the attention of [our] partners will not [again] be turned and they [the resolutions] will be voted in again? Is this not a threat.. such political behaviour?"

"I am convinced that we can return back, but with changes to [our] responsibilities, to our public behaviour... finally, to force the goverment to work productively, not for the cameras, not for constant shows, but to drive the nation, the economy, forward."

In LEvko's opinion Yushchenko is aware that had Tymoshenko had her way during and after the Orange Revolution, former president Kuchma would be behind bars today. If Tymoshenko were to be elected president in the next presidential elections late next year could he be sure that she would leave him in peace? Can he risk her becoming president?

Yushchenko's own statements today only add substance to the speculation on his true intentions.

p.s. Leading PoR deputy, Taras Chornovil, has resigned from the party. In an interview with the BBC he suggests Yushchenko may be cunningly planning early parliamentary elections for the Orthodox Christmas holidays period. The electorates' current disenchantment with politics and the timing of any such election may mean the necessary 50%+ turn-out required for them to be valid may not be achieved.

BYuT and NUNS agree, but poison remains..

Yulia Tymoshenko has agreed to accept all of NUNS' conditions, and the parliamentary 'Democratic Coalition' now joined by Lytvyn's bloc, are apparently back in business. "We agree to all of the steps which they have proposed..all the conditions, ultimatums, all the arm-twisting," announced Tymoshenko sourly.

Tomorrow, 2nd October, she is going to Moscow for critical talks on supplies of Russian gas to Ukraine. She claimed today that her 'KabMin' had confirmed the directives of both the president and the National Security and Defence Council for the talks.

Just two days ago deputy head of the president's secretariat Andriy Kyslynsky declared on the secretariat's official website that he was convinced that during her visit to Moscow "gas contracts for 2009 are not the #1 topic on the agenda.."

"The first item on the list will be the reciept by Yulia Volodymyrivna of political blessings from the Russian administration. All the rest, including gas contracts, will be just tagged on."

"National interests cannot be the hostages of the premier's political intrigues," emphasized Kyslynsky, in what was just the latest of the secretariat's statements systematically 'rubbishing' Tymoshenko.

Does anyone seriously believe that the new coalition is anything other than the buying of time before the presidential elections get under way? With Tymoshenko around, Yushchenko's chances of a second term of office are extremely low. The never-ending vitriolic criticism of PM Tymoshenko by the President's secretariat is bound to continue..

p.s. a commentator on the current global financial crisis said that when political opponents start agreeing and working together to overcome the crisis, then this is the time to really get worried..

Yushchenko under pressure

In an article in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' US ambassador in Ukraine William Taylor says he will work with any coalition in the Ukrainian parliament, as long as it is formed in a democratic manner. But he also warned Ukrainian authorites against using force or introducing direct presidential rule.

And 'Segodnya' reports that former US ambassador in Ukraine, Steven Pifer, has expressed the opinion that Ukraine will not be granted its NATO Membership Action Plan if the Verkhovna Rada is dissolved by the President. 'Segodnya' considers this political 'arm-twisting' by Pifer is intended to push the Presidential NUNS party back into coalition with BYuT.

The same article, entitled 'Tymoshenko stirring mutiny at Yushchenko's rear' [i.e. inside NUNS], says today a pro-premier [pro-Tymoshenko] fraction is being formed inside the presidential block. Tymoshenko's stated today that if "Parliament is pushed into early elections, then it would be logical to hold simultaneous presidential, and parliamentary elections," [which Yushchenko would almost certainly lose.]

'Segodnya' also claims a parliamentary investigative commission will conclude that president Yushchenko himself was involved with the supply of weaponry to Georgia and to his 'kum' Saakashvili..at a monetary loss to Ukraine of whopping half a billion hryvnya.. Will this scandal have legs?

Ukraine slipping in Corruption rankings

Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index for 2008 has Ukraine dropping to 134th place, down from last year's 118th place.

I seem to recall during the Orange Revolution President Viktor Yushchenko appeared on the Maydan expressing shame at Ukraine's 122th position - between Sudan and Cameroon or similar.. Corruption is not something Ukrainian politicians talk about much these days...

Some sense from Kluyev

PoR deputy Andriy Kluyev was allegedly one of the darkest of the 2004 Orange Revolution election fraud plotters. Recently there have been stories in the Ukrainian media that he has been the main PoR liason man in efforts by one wing of PoR to assemble a new parliamentary coalition with Yulia Tymoshenko's BYuT following NUNS walk- out from their democratic parliamentary coalition with BYuT.

Kluyvev has written a well-reasoned article entitled 'Becoming a country of realized possibilities' for the current 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya', which I recommend reading. He argues any coalition is better than the early parliamentary elections sought by president Yushchenko.

I've translated and paraphrased some portions below:

"Since 2004, in Ukraine, the authorities in power have practically not been able to function. The constant political stand-offs, both within the walls of parliament and between the President and the cabinet of ministers, have led to the disintegration of state institutions. Conflicts within the 'orange camp' are most apparent. The work of the organs of power organs and judicial is particularly politicized.

Politicians and ordinary citizens have become weary of this. The myth that inactivity of the authorities is good for the economy sounds reasonable, but is unrealistic."

Kluyev calls for a long-term development program to be written for the country to increase the quality of life of its citizens. The key tasks are to increase the lifespan of Ukraine's citizens by ten years and reduce mortality particularly amongst people of working age, reform public health services, modernization of the pension system, development programs for infrastructure, and improving the education system and science.

For this to be achieved the economy has to grow. In all of these questions the positions of the country's main political forces practically coincide. The reasons for differences lie in personal ambitions, and also in questions most of which concern the past.

The judical disintegration of the current unworkable "democratic" coalition forces the country's politicians either to negotiate and compromise, or to go again for senseless and unnecessary early elections. Today everyone recognizes that without a change in the legislative rules any elections will change nothing, but will only increase polarization and deliver a further blow to the economy. Therefore it is important to come to some agreement.

The [recent] renewal of the full operation of parliament [and the co-operation of PoR and BYuT] has shown that this can be productive, but it is is just a first step.

"I am sure that any working coalition will be more beneficial for the country than sequential elections. Moreover, from the point of view of the interests of the country, any configuration of those being discussed today would be acceptable. The coalition could even be 'technical' - just for solving the most urgent problems - the stabilization of the economic situation, and also for introducing legislation changes, which would make it possible to minimize conflicts amongst those in power.

It is at the same time obvious that creation of any coalition will be difficult, taking into account future presidential elections and ideological differences between main political forces, so that the probability of early parliamentary elections is very high. But soon after, the battle for the presidential post will begin, and the current crisis will automatically be prolonged by one-and-a-half years..which could result in social and economic upheavals comparable to those of the crises in the '90's.

The country's elites must finally understand that decline of the population and economic stagnation threaten the security of Ukraine considerably more than the artificially fanned conflicts with neighbours. We should put aside the topics causing conflict and concentrate on the main priorities. I'm pleased to say that understanding the importance of consolidation of the elites around productive aims is gradually filtering through to my politician friends. I hope that this understanding will give to the Ukraine chance to become a country of realized possibilities."

The main political groups in parliament have about 4 weeks to come to agreement on forming a coalition. Weighing heavily in their minds is how joining any such coalition could affect their ratings. Kluyev seems to be appealing for politicians to look at the broader picture - an honorable position for someone normally associated with sinister behind-the-scenes dealing.

Nemyria in BBC interview

The vice Prime Minister Hryhoriy Nemyria talks to Stephen Sackur tonight on BBC's 'Hardtalk' here.

Don't miss his impressive, eloquent performance.

The worst market crisis in 60 years

Writing on wall many months ago..

Bohatyryova interview

The current political crisis in Ukraine could be said to have started when National Security and Defence Council secretary, Raisa Bohatyryova was sacked from her PoR party following statements in Washington that were generally supportive of President Yushchenko's policy on last month's Russian-Georgian war. In previous VR convocations she had been leader of the PoR faction.

'Obozrevatel' has conducted a most interesting interview with her, entitled: "I will not return to Yanukovych, even if he drops to his knees," which I recommend everyone to read.

She speaks revealingly of serious rifts within PoR, but today I will translate some just these portions:

Qu: Those, who await your further steps and actions, see you as a potential leader, possibly an alternative to Yanukovych. Experts are sure that the creation of a new political project headed by Bohatyryova is just a matter of time. More so because Rinat Akhmetov, [Ukraine's richest oligarch] is ready you to support you.

(Significantly, after a pause..) I am considering my possible perspectives at the moment.

Qu: Party [perspectives]?

I'm examining all possible possibilities. I do not intend to leave active politics. I can't say what my next steps will be.

{Bohatyryova then does not deny that she may be involved in some kind of new political project together Arsene Yatsenyuk [the current VR speaker] and Anatoliy Hrytsenko [until recently, a minister of defence], and that Rinat Akhmetov could be bankrolling it all.}

Qu: Do you agree that early elections are now practically inevitable?
I do not see any other way to deal with the [current] crisis. In the opinion experts, it's further development could lead to an anti-state coup.

Qu: The democratic coalition will not be ressurrected then?
[No,] This is unrealistic. Tymoshenko does not want it...

Qu: Responsibility for the integrity of the union between Tymoshenko and Yushchenko is shared between them. However, the actions of the latter clearly did not further the strengthening of the coalition.
This is not so. As the President, Victor Andriyovych did everything in order not to permit the crisis [to grow and] develop.

Qu: And his Secretariat supported him in this?! Particularly Baloha and Kislinsky?
I am not the attorney of the Secretariat and moreover not its leader. Accordingly, I cannot comment on the activity of his colleagues.

Qu: You have known Yanukovych for many years. Tell us, is he actually capable of establishing a union with Tymoshenko, or is this bluff?
The prospects for the forming of coalition PoR and BYuT depend more greatly on Tymoshenko. If the smell of power is sweet for Yanukovych then I do not exclude it, an alliance with the pretext of the interest of each Ukrainian may be created. However, it won't last long - a divorce scandal is inevitable. And as a result PoR will finally be demoralized and will lose voters...

Certainly, if BYuT agrees to embody PoR policies, including those on language issues, citizenship, non aligned status, the realization of constitutional changes, then these two antipodes could combine and collaborate. But I do not believe this scenario. At the same time fear of Viktor Yushchenko could push Yulia Tymoshenko into a situational alliance with PoR. Such a political incest could happen...

..PoR and BYuT do not have the three hundred votes necessary for changing the Constitution. All statements about complete control of the deputies of the two fractions is bravado, just as in the previous years. One coalition has already bragged about the presence of the constitutional majority, which, after checking, turned out not to be the case...

LEvko thinks she may be correct in this final statement. Up to about 70 PoR deputies are from Rinat Akhmetov's 'personal quota'. He has allegedly been PoR's biggest financial backer so will have a big say on how the crisis now pans out.

p.s. On Friday the President, his daughter, Raisa Bohatyryova, Rinat Akhmetov, and other 'prominenti' attended an exhibition of sculptures from the Paris Louvre which are being displayed in Kyiv. Why do so many of them look like stone-faced aliens?

Yushchenko dangerously out of touch with reality

Ever louder whispers are being heard that President Yushchenko will dismiss the Ukrainian parliament [VR] soon, if a formal coalition between BYuT and Party of Regions is created. NUNS [the president's bloc] walked out of what was the majority ruling coalition in the VR recently because of major disagreements with BYuT.

There would be no legal basis for the dismissal of the VR, but Yushchenko will blame Tymoshenko for "revision of the will of the electorate" if she 'mucks in' with Yanukovych.

This is a highly dangerous path to follow. PoR and BYuT are by far the two largest parties in Ukrainian politics and were fairly elected into parliament. By and large they do represent the will of those who voted them in. Yushchenko dismissed parliament last year on the flimsiest of legal grounds. Does he imagine he could get away with it a second time around?

Interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko told journalists today that he would not allow clashes between power structures to take place in the event of any solution by force of the current political crisis. He considers "The party of war, with Baloha [head of the president's secretariat] at its head, could push for a force scenario."

p.s. The 'Unian' press agency are running an on-line poll, asking its website visitors if they approve the creation of a PoR-BYuT coalition. Over 10,000 have voted; almost 67% of respondents said 'Yes'..

NU in bad shape for any early elections

Kommersant run a story which I have summarised below:

"Our Ukraine" [NU] has begun active preparations for extraordinary parliamentary elections. Following a meeting of the party leadership with president Victor Yushchenko members of "Our Ukraine" agree that their union with BYuT has come to an end. However, NU have a problem - from the first five of the NUNS block list in last year's parliamentary elections, only one - Vyacheslav Kirilenko, would remain on their list.

NUNS VR deputy Xenia Lyapina told 'Kommersant' that her party considered the most realistic scenario is that BYuT will go into coalition with PoR. Another NU member said active preparations for prescheduled parliamentary elections have already begun.

First on the NUNS list in last year's VR election was Yuriy Lutsenko, but his National Self-Defence party has now burnt its bridges with NU. They could possibly link up with BYuT if BYuT are agreeable to this.

VR chairman Arseniy Yatseniuk, who was third on the NUNS list, apparently refuses to be a part of "Our Ukraine". He allegedly spent last week in active negotiations on his political future and is considering creating his own political project. The are rumours that Yatsenyuk has spoken to businessman Rinat Akhmetov who could be ready to financially support the political project as long as head of the National Security and Defence Council, Raisa Bohatyryova, who is quite close to Akhmetov but who has just been kicked out of PoR, should be second in command. But Akhmetov's close associate Boris Kolesnikov claims he knows nothing about such plans.

Former minister of defence Anatoliy Hrytsenko [number 4 on the NUNS list last time around] is considering starting his own political project also.

Number 5 on the NUNS block list was Mykola Katerynchuk, but he already heads the European party of Ukraine and they will probably enter any elections independently.

NUNS deputies are privately admitting that President Yushchenko could dissolve the VR yet again if a coalition which does not suit him is assembled. PoR VR deputy Vadim Kolesnichenko claims: "A military coup is being prepared in Ukraine..and the process of preparation to topple constitutional order in Ukraine has entered an active practical phase."

However, PM Yulia Tymoshenko says: “At present we are not discussing any other configuration of coalition apart from the democratic coalition. And I request that absolutely all provocations on this topic be stopped," So there...

Normal situation for democracy?

President Yushchenko seems to be living in his own fantasy world. In a conversation with journalists in Paris after today's 12th EU-Ukraine summit, when asked about the current political situation in Ukraine, he told them, "There is no crisis, this is a normal situation for democracy." He obviously missed PM Yulia Tymoshenko's two-hour diatribe against him yesterday.

But the ground may be crumbling under his feet. According to Defence minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, ministers allocated from the President's quota and from NUNS intend to take part in all further cabinet meetings. "We will [continue] to work, and believe me, we will work responsibly," said the minister.

And in last night's TV interview, Yulia Tymoshenko claimed that the Prosecutor-General's office has refused to set up a working group to investigate her 'state treason' alleged by the President's secretariat. If this is true, it indicates that Yushchenko's control over the 'sylovyky' is not as great as he had hoped.

Several political 'big-beasts' including interior minister Yuriy Lutsenko, former foreign affairs minister Borys Tarasyuk, and former defence minister Anatoliy Hrytsenko did not support the break-up of the NUNS-BYuT coalition late in the evening on 2nd September when 39 out of 64 NUNS deputies voted to walk out of the NUNS-BYuT coalition. According to the VR 'reglament' the 'divorce' officially takes place on the eleventh day after this resolution was adopted.

Many NUNS deputies are now in a state of panic over possible fresh elections. They are demanding Yushchenko settles his differences with Tymoshenko and sacks troublemaker-in-chief, head of the president's secretariat, Viktor Baloha.

But even if BYuT wer to form a new ruling coalition with 'Regiony' within the allotted 30 day period, President Yushchenko may dismiss parliament in any case, even though no legal basis would exist for this. This is a normal situation for democracy, no?

Predicting the future

There is some interesting speculation in today's 'Segodnya' on how events could develop in Ukrainian politics. Below is a very rough translation:

The political crisis in the Ukraine continues. In response to Yushchenko's ultimatum to adopt a resolution condemning "Russian aggression" against Georgia and demands to cancel recently approved anti-presidential laws, Yulia Tymoshenko advanced her conditions for reconciliation. She demanded the president apologizes for accusing her of state betrayal, but added she does not hold out much hope for this.

There are two realistic possibilities on how matters may develop. The first is the creation of a PoR and BYuT coalition. However the business-wing in 'Regiony', and many of the Western Ukrainian deputies and companions-in-arms of Viktor Pynzenyk in BYuT are not agreeable to this.

The second possibility is early elections, if the above-mentioned coalition fails to be constructed. Two other versions of the course of events cannot be discounted entirely, i.e. the restoration of the NUNS-BYuT coalition, or the creation of the broad NUNS-PoR coalition.

'Segodnya' gives the good and bad points of each possibility:

1. The revival of the BYuT-NUNS coalition could ensure an offer of MAP from NATO in December, but could also lead to a collapse in negotiations on the price of Russian gas, causing great pain to industrial and domestic consumers. Parliament, where the coalition does not an absolute majority, would be further paralyzed at least until the presidential elections to be held at the end of 2009.

2. The creation of a BYuT-PoR coalition would be a 'first' for Ukraine so predicting how such an arrangement would 'pan out' is difficult. However, the government would, maybe, at long last, be able to pass in the VR, at least the most basic necessary laws (e.g. changes in the budget). Furthermore, the alliance of these two largest parties which, combined, total over 300 votes, could, in half a year, change the constitution and affirm a normal system of authority, clarifying who is 'top dog' in the country - the President or premier.

To the pluses of this coalition could be added the normalization of relations with Russia. This coalition could quite realistically agree with Moscow a small increase only in the price of gas, furthermore, if 'Regionaly' are persistent, then the government could 'back off' on Ukrainianization, removing some stresses in the southeast of the country.

On the economy there could be two outcomes - one good and one bad. Tymoshenko's desire to increase her popularity amongst the electorate by means of generous social programs could be combined with the economic pragmatism of 'Regionaly'. Alternatively, businessmen from BYuT and PoR could dictate political progress by excessive lobbying of their own business- interests, increasing corruption.

3.The break-up of parliament and early elections would see a sharp rise in social payments to the electorate by the current government, to be paid off by any incoming government, increasing inflation. Talks with Russia would be put 'on hold' because of the uncertainty of who is in charge of the country. Internal investment would decrease. There would be a sharp increase in the tension in the country on the question of the war in Georgia war and relations with Russia, with ever more deepening divisions in society. Finally, the elections may not provide any change to the current stalement, so the same political chaos that exists now could remain for a long time in the future.

4. Broad PoR-NUNS coalition. This could only take place if 'Regiony' back-down from its fundamental positions on NATO and Russian language, or in case of a volte-face on these questions by NUNS and Yushchenko.

Tymoshenko proposes three scenarios to break present deadlock [in English] here

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Meanwhile 'Kontrakty' expresses the opinion that the many Russian business interests in Ukraine would prevent any repetition of the Georgian scenario in Ukraine. Ukrainian experts on security issues consider a military conflict impossible.

It is indicative that despite the military conflict between Russia and Georgia and the strain in relations that followed it, no new trading war has developed. Russia did not stop gas delivery to Georgia or fuel transits to Armenia. And Georgia does not intend to restrict the import of goods from Russia.

Russian companies have large investment holdings in Georgia, e.g. in electric power generation, banking, chemicals, petroleum products and telecommunications. The same is true of Ukraine.

Desperate comments from pres's secretariat

The Ukrainian President's press service posted the following on the pres's website last night:

The PM's reluctance to obey the fair demands of the President testifies the non Ukrainian origin of the Ukrainian crisis scenario - A. Kyslynskyi [deputy head of the pres's secretariat]

"An impression is being formed that PM Tymoshenko is enduring a psychological crisis linked to the unsuitability of her own ambitions and national interests of Ukraine." This is the only way that absence of adequate reactions [by her] to the latest events, particularly the President's ultimatum, can be explained.

"It is difficult to call the schoolboy jokes with which the head of government 'amuses' the country the position of a serious politician."

"One can assume that the reluctance of the PM to give an honest assessment to the events in Georgia and their possible influence on Ukraine may be the result of her fear of being refused entry to Russia again. There are no other rational explanations for the anti-constitutional acts, i.e. voting for anti-state laws, by the new BYuT coalition, PoR, and Communists, which upset the balance of the system of authority in the country," said Kysynskyi, adding, "It is clear that the possible support from Russia in future presidential elections weigh more heavily for Yulia Tymoshenko than defending of the national interests of her own country."

p.s. Some experts are talking of the possibility that the political crisis in Ukraine may be resolved by force.

BYuT-PoR coalition likely

"Segodnya" carries this story entitled:

BYuT: Coalition with 'Regiony' is better than the re-elections

Neither Party of Regions nor BYuT are hiding the fact that they are actively conducting negotiations on the creation of a new coalition.

According to 'Segodnya's' sources in BYuT, the union between Regionaly and 'Byutovtsi' will be legalized by the end September. "BYuT are categorically against early elections. The majority of 'Byutovtsi', in particular those from the eastern, southern and central regions, consider that a coalition with PoR is absolutely natural. It is somewhat difficult for the representatives from western regions, it is more complex for them to explain this union to its voters. But in any event they understand that a new coalition is more advantageous than re-elections. And the last eight months with NUNS were not easy and pleasant", explained the source.

PoR spokesman Taras Chornovil told "Segodnya" that PoR has now walked out of "stupid" negotiations with NUNS. "I'm so pleased about this! Now, as a party spokesman I don't have to give false statements that we are still trying to come to some agreement with someone. Yes, there are people in PoR who were drawn into negotiations with the Bank St. [president's secretariat], and now we are seriously reorienting [our position]. But as you may have noticed, in recent days these people and the entire fraction, voted for the joint agreements made by PoR and BYuT. And I've heard that even Akhmetov has already said that to it is easier to come to an agreement with Tymoshenko [rather than Yushchenko]. Working with Bank Street is political suicide, everyone understands this. As to early elections or coalition with BYuT - I prefer the latter. And I can assure you - the probability of this coalition is very large. But we are not conducting negotiations [on this], because we need to give BYuT the chance to officially leave the previous coalition".

Meanwhile on Bank Street they do not believe in the union of Tymoshenko Yanukovych. "BYuT and PoR will not be glued together so simply. Tymoshenko will in any event remain premier, and Yanukovych will be made speaker. But this distribution is not equivalent, and problems will appear," a source from the President's secretariat told "Segodnya".
For this very reason the presidential team is counting on early elections, which must take place at the beginning, and at latest, by the middle of December. "A coalition between BYuT and Regionaly, will hit Tymoshenko's positions in the western regions, so elections could substantially change the political distribution", said the source.

['Segodnya' is published by one of Akhmetov's companies]

Other commentators agree that all bridges have now been burned between Yulka T and Yushchenko - the same goes for Yanukovych and any possibility of a PoR/NUNS grand coalition. For the first time in all the years of their existence, both PoR and BYuT totally trusted on another to stick to previously-made agreements and to vote in a co-ordinated fashion in the VR last week.

The Russian-Georgian conflict caused the abscess in the democratic coalition that had been festering for months and which no-one wanted to squeeze, to finally burst.

Unchartered waters for Ukraine's politicians

President Yushchenko's fevered statement on the events in the Verkhovna Rada [in English] here

Tymoshenko's response [in Ukrainian] here

The tone of her response is noticeably more calming and measured that the president's, but includes passages of pure electioneering.

It also includes these passages:

"From tomorrow I am starting consultations with all political parties in parliament in order to create a system of consolidation, in order to finally stop discord, [and] in order to create a centre of stability in parliament and government..."

"I am happy that today parliament is voting 'like clockwork'. Yesterday all laws without exclusion were accepted to raise [the efficency of] the coal mining branch. Today we accepted all decisions and changes to the budget, enabling us to raise wages ...And every day parliament and government will make those decisions that you expect."

"I think that the politicum have worn the country out with early elections. We need to work and not cast the country into crisis every time..."

Is she going to try and assemble a government of national unity with some PoR ministers in her cabinet, and side-line the president?

Both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have both been driven out of office by Yushchenko in the period since the Orange Revolution. LEvko does not believe either will permit history to repeat itself. This is a major constitutional crisis.

p.s. There are some reports that the president has called secret meetings with his 'sylovyky' today..

Sensations in VR

The Ukrainian parliament [Verkhovna Rada] returned to work after the summer recess in what was a most turbulent day. BYuT, PoR and the Communists voted together to change the law on the Cabinet of Ministers, significantly weakening the powers of the President with respect to the KabMin and parliament. The BYuT/PoR/Communists grouping garnered well in excess of a constitutional majority of 300 votes - there is already some talk of impeachment of the president..

The VR, by 362 votes, changed the law on the Security Serice of Ukraine [SBU] and removed the President's powers to appoint and sack the SBU's leadership. It is proposed that this function be transferred into the hands of the VR.

Looks like the ruling BYuT/NUNS coalition is now belly up, dead in the water.

The Verkhovna Rada rejected making any declaration on the situation in Georgia. All the draft resolutions submitted by parliamentary factions in the Rada for consideration on this matter failed to receive the minimum 226 MPs' votes. The parliament also refused to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

VR speaker Yatsenyuk has run away from his chair, declaring, "The collapse of the ruling coalition will not happen with my hands." The remainder of the sitting was led by a newly-appointed deputy.

There was some truth in the rumours that Yulka T had been plotting on the high seas during her summer hols. then.

LEvko thinks Yushchenko has brought much of this about himself. In 2005 he sacked the then PM Yulia Tymshenko together with her government. Last year he dismissed a PoR-led VR in a legally most dubious manner. This year his secretariat's constant unfounded accusations of treachery directed at Tymoshenko and her government have become a bad joke. In the latest macabre twist the head of the pres's secretariat Viktor Baloha, in a letter to the acting head of the SBU, claims Tymoshenko is planning to 'eliminate' him. He says there are plans to poison him, kill him in a staged automobile accident, or to shoot or to blow him up. Even the 'Donbass' daily recently sprung to the defence of PM Yulia Tymoshenko from these never-ending assaults.

Maybe more later..

Update : NUNS have just 'pulled the plug' on the NUNS/BYuT coalition. VR deputies now have 30 days to cobble together a new ruling coalition or else new elections will take place.

Ukrainians seriously worried by Georgian conflict

An O.P. in 'Unian' reveals 48.5% of Ukrainians consider conflict similar to that in Georgia could occur in Ukraine.

40.4% of those questioned disagreed with this point of view. Nevertheless, 47.4% see dangers for Ukraine in the Russian-Georgian conflict.

Clearly, large numbers of Ukrainians are seriously worried about recent events in Georgia.
p.s. I can recommend an analytical article from 'Der Spiegel' [in English] entitled 'The Cold Peace'. It claims there is OSCE evidence that Saakashvili 'drew first' by attacking civilian targets, contrary to his repeated assertions that he did not. The article also highlights the statements and suggestions by Russian officials, particularly on the question of Crimea, that are making Ukrainians so nervous [see above].

Also well worth reading is 'Spiegel's excellent account [in English] of how the events leading to war in Georgia unfolded.

Putin the tiger tamer

Who will be the next target for Putin's tranquilliser gun?

[Check out this video explaining how 'a miracle' saved a TV crew]

PoR on Crimea

'Kommersant' carries this story:

Party of Regions leaves Crimea in peace

"Regionaly" assert that the experiences of South Ossetia and Abkhaziya will not repeated in the Autonomous Republic [of Crimea]

Yesterday the Crimean PoR organization supported the actions of the Russian Federation in the Caucasus in recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But PoR also emphasized that a similar scenario could not be repeated in the Crimea, because it is "an integral part of Ukraine". However, despite this clarification the medzhlis of the Crimean-Tatar nation, and the Crimean branch of Rukh both accused PoR of attempting to unite Crimea and Russia.

Representatives from PoR emphasized that the Autonomous Republic the Crimea must not become a region of instability and geopolitical rivalry. "Crimea is an integral part of Ukraine, in contrast to the republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia, whose citizens were not the citizens of Georgia," stated the leader of the Crimean PoR Vasiliy Kiselev.

Yesterday Crimean Communists responded to PoR's statements thus: "It's a great pity, that they expressed support [for South Ossetia and Abkhaziya] so late, complained the first secretary of the Crimean Communist Party leader Leonid Grach. "As always they sat and swallowed their tongue until Viktor Fedorovich Yanukovich appeared from Altai [where he likes to go for a spot of R&R] and made some vague pronouncement," Grach added.

"This [acknowledgement of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhaiya] is hundred per-cent provocation and ignores fact that similar moves can end badly, said an indignant leader of Rukh in Crimea, Leonid Pilunskiy.

In the opinion the first deputy chairman of the medzhlis, Refat Chubarov, any revision of boundaries in the post-Soviet space is a sure path to the destabilization of relations between all of its states."

LEvko's view is that no-one really knows what the Kremlin's intentions are in Crimea, provoking much anxiety both in Ukraine and elsewhere. A brief statement of clarification on this matter from president Medvedev or PM Putin would greatly reduce tension, but it is unlikely any such statement will be forthcoming. This alone is a cause for concern.

ps. Did Ukraine ever officially recognize Kosovo's independence? I seem to recall consultations were to be held but didn't they just 'kick the ball into the long grass?'

Saturday a.m. Update:

Last night PM Putin, in a German TV interview, clarified the situation on Russia's attitude to Crimea.

"Crimea is no kind of disputable territory. There have been no ethnic conflicts there...inside Crimean society complex processes are taking place. There are problems of the Crimean Tartars, the Ukrainian population, the Russian population, the entire Slavic population. But this is an internal political problem for Ukraine itself," he said, adding, "We have an agreement with Ukraine about our fleet remaining there until 2017, and we will be governed by this agreement."

"Russia recognised the borders of Ukraine a long time ago. In essence we have concluded, in general and totally, our negotiations on borders. The talk [now] is about democracy, but these are technical matters," said Putin.

LEvko says, that's more like it. Maybe the bear's appetite has now been sated.

'Segodnya' proposes neutral stance in Russian-Western crisis

There's a sobering article in the Akhmetov-owned 'Segodnya' today entitled: "Russia and the West: war at the threshold".

Here are some loosely translated portions:

"After the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, unavoidable conflict awaits the Russian Federation and the West..."

The article predicts two possible consequences:

"The first, a new full-scale confrontation of the West and Russia - indications of which will be Nato's MAP being offered to Georgia and Ukraine, and also exclusion, in one form or another, of Moscow from the G8.

The second could be that the West will swallow the bitter pill and accept that Russia has rights also. Russia may have calculated on the creation of new global security structures with leading roles for Russia, Germany, France and China, when it embarked on it's dangerous game.

"In the event of the final break-up of Russian-Western relations, they will lose everything", said Deputy of the RF Gosduma, Sergey Markov to 'Segodnya', "But the West will lose more because [Russia] will cease to support them on Iran, North Korea, and Afghanistan. Therefore I do not believe the West will decide on large scale confrontation," he added. It is not yet clear whether these calculations will be justified.

"As for Russia, Putin and Medvedev have nowhere to step back to - either they will make Russia a powerful and flourishing power, or they will go the way of Milosevic. The posing of this question has already brought down Russia's stock market; local oligarchs, who have placed a substantial part of their wealth in the West, fear they could become the first victims of the new Cold War; simultaneously western investors are withdrawing their assets, frightened by the Russian-Western stand-off. It is possible certainly, to rely on the nuclear shield and billions of petrodollars, but they will not save the situation if corruption, technological backwardness and poverty of [the Russian] population remain at the present level...

As far as the Ukraine is concerned, no matter how things pan out, we should remain on the sidelines during this struggle of titans. Moving closer to either of the sides of this conflict makes us, inevitably, the target for the first strike of the enemy. We risk becoming a "hot" battlefield in the new Cold War with a major threat of division of the country", says 'Segodnya'.

Tymoshenko's Mediterranean junket?

There may be some substance to alleged events which led to accusations of 'national betrayal' levelled at PM Yulia Tymoshenko recently by President Yushchenko's Secretariat.

The normally relatively politically independent 'Obozrevatel' has run a couple of stories about what it calls PM Tymoshenko's 'Sardinian cruises'. These stories allege that Tymoshenko, while cruising between Mediterranean islands earlier this month, conducted a series of meetings and negotiations with influential politicians and businessmen - including Russians. The central theme, in all cases, the paper suggests, was her political future - in particular her presidential election campaign next year..

'Oboz' claims she met the infamous gas middleman Dmitro Firtash of RUE, and influential PoR deputy and one of the alleged principal 2004 Presidential election fraudsters Serhiy Lyovochkin, as well as representatives from Gazprom. She has also managed to gain the support of many of Ukraine's biggest mass media moguls for her Presidential campaign next year.

Apparently, her Mediterranean cruise started aboard a 30-meter yacht owned by the Party of Regions deputy, political rotweiller Nestor Shufrych. The boat had previously been owned by former President Kuchma's 'grey cardinal', Viktor Medvedchuk, hence the confusion. Incidentally, Medvedchuk now owns a 57 meter yacht, the 'Romance'.

Some of the meetings took place on what 'Oboz' claims could be Firtash's super-yacht, the 'Utopia' [70 metres long - a bauble that costs about 1/2 million Euro's a week to hire ]

Saakashvili - Sorcerer's Apprentice

I liked this piece on the Georgia crisis, by Sir Rodric Braithwaite, a former British ambassador to Moscow and former chairman of the British Joint Intelligence Committee :

Here is a portion:

"There is a long, tangled, and disputed back history to all this. Georgia, like the former Yugoslavia, is an ethnic patchwork. The native Abkhazians are largely Muslim. The South Ossetians want to unite with their ethnic relations over the Russian border in North Ossetia. Neither liked being in Georgia, and as the Soviet Union broke up, both made a bid for independence. In an ironic parallel, the Georgians closed down the local university in the Abkhazian capital of Sukhumi just as the Serbs were closing down the Albanian university in Kosovo, on the grounds, one very distinguished Georgian philosopher said, that the Abkhazians had no proper language, history or culture, and did not need a university anyway. [Sounds familiar?]

Georgia's first democratically elected president, the disastrous Zviad Gamsakhurdia, then launched a vicious little war against Abkhazia, smashing its capital Sukhumi. But the Georgians were defeated by a combination of Abkhazians and "volunteers" from Russia and Chechnya. Tens of thousands of Georgian refugees fled to Tblisi. Much the same, though on a smaller scale, was happening in South Ossetia.

Various ceasefires were brokered, with Russian "peacekeepers" acting as guarantors. The ceasefires regularly broke down, thanks to provocations and intrigues by all sides. They were as regularly patched up again.

With the arrival of Mikheil Saakashvili, another democratically elected president, things began to go downhill. The Americans gave him political and economic support and advice, and equipped and trained his army. He turned out to be the Sorcerer's Apprentice, and outran American control. He provoked the Russians and the South Ossetians by one pinprick after another, and, above all, by his application to join Nato.
The Russians regularly warned that there would be consequences. Egged on by the Russians, the South Ossetians increased their provocations. Perhaps it was a deliberate trap. If so, Saakashvili fell right into it. His soldiers had no hope of beating the Russians in a fight. Maybe he assumed that the West would bail him out: an epic miscalculation. Many Georgians now feel that the West betrayed them. In due course they will no doubt turn on Saakashvili himself.

Most Russians believe their government's action in Georgia was entirely justified. They are hugely satisfied that they are now dictating the rules of the game, after endless lectures about their human rights record by the people who brought the world Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo, after years of having their interests systematically ignored by a triumphalist West. They are now back again, teaching an irritating neighbour a sharp lesson, dictating their will in the energy market, and cocking a snook at Nato and the European Union. It is not a pretty sight, but it is understandable.

The Americans and their allies have been made to look weak and foolish. They do not have the power to force South Ossetia and Abkhazia back into Georgia, any more than the Russians had the power to force Kosovo back into Serbia. Their offer of Nato membership to Ukraine and Georgia looks perilously like bluff.

Nato has the means to defend the Baltic States and Poland from Russian aggression. But Georgia? But Ukraine? Most Ukrainians would like to be linked with the West. But they want to remain on good terms with Russia: that is why, according to polls, a majority oppose Nato membership. Do we propose to force it on them? [LEvko's italics]

We have given small countries meaningless guarantees before. After their shameful betrayal of Czechoslovakia in 1938, Britain and France declared war on Hitler in September 1939 to honour their guarantee to Poland. Everyone else, including America, fought only after he had moved against them. But the guarantee did not save Poland, which ended the war under Soviet domination."

Russian-Georgian conflict - Conclusions for Ukraine

Rinat Akhmetov's big-selling 'Segodnya' daily carries the following interesting story entitled:

"Experts [from a Ukrainian think tank] say Russia could provoke Ukraine into employing SpetsNaz [Special Operations] Forces"

It is intriguing that a newspaper owned by PoR's biggest sponsor would run such a story which so openly discusses these matters.

I've loosely translated portions below:

"Experts do not exclude provocations from Russia aimed at goading Ukrainian authorities into decisions to utilize SpetsNaz units.

This is discussed in a study entitled "Russian-Georgian conflict - Conclusions for Ukraine", from the Centre for Army Conversion and Disarmament Studies. [Full document here ]

Future activity of the Russian Federation with respect to Ukraine will be in the format of concentrated actions by political and informational means, with continuous expansion of the RF's zone of influence inside and around Ukraine. The central objective of Russian side is to return Ukraine to the mainstream of Russian policy. Its current task is the destabilization of the situation in Ukraine, and over the long term - the creation of prerequisites for the division of Ukraine”, note experts of the centre.

In their opinion, "There are signs that the Russian side is finalizing scenarios envisaging application of armed forces, although the basic principles of action will remain political and economic pressure, [and] a policy of intimidation of the population".

The Ukrainian analysts explain: "The Russian Federation has too great an arsenal of non-military tools for them to yield to temptation and use armed forces. The latter is possible only as a "reaction" in response to military actions ordered by Ukrainian authorities.

In the opinion the experts of the Centre, at present the main thrust of Russian informational policy is directed toward formulating, in the eyes of the Russian citizens, an enemy in the form of the adjacent Ukraine, and in the eyes of Ukrainians, an enemy in the form of NATO.

"After the Russian-Georgian war the arsenal of activities of the Russian authorities, and the number of anti-Ukrainian measures on the territory of Ukraine will be noticeably extended. Provocations for the purpose of adoption by the Ukrainian authorities of solutions using SpetzNaz units are not excluded," note the analysts.

LEvko considers the above-mentioned level-headed study is well-worth reading. It concludes that the chances of Ukraine being offered MAP are almost zero, and that the Georgia/Russia conflict has terminated previously-made international agreements - the guarantees offered after Ukraine's nuclear disarmament in the early '90's are no longer valid. Ukraine has limited, and ever-decreasing defensive capabilities to ward off agression - it needs to spend much more to modernise its armed forces.

Pres's secretariat accuses PM of treason

Deputy head of the Presidential Secretariat, Andriy Kyslynskyi, has posted a nasty little statement on the official secretariat site entitled: "There are indications of state treason and political corruption in the actions of the current prime minister, says Andriy Kyslynskyi"

He declares that according to available information, the political leadership of the Russian Federation is carefully considering a decision to support the candidature of PM Yulia Tymoshenko in the Ukrainian Presidential elections [late next year] after the fulfillment of the condition by the PM and her political force to adopt a passive position on the Georgian conflict."

According to the posting, "nearly one billion US dollars have been reserved for the project to support Yulia Tymoshenko." It alleges that while on holiday in Sardinia, she has been plotting with 'yesterday's politicians' including disgraced former President Kuchma and his eminence grise Viktor Medvedchuk.'

Where this leaves the current ruling parliamentary coalition heaven knows. Fancy Tymoshenko lying in the sun with the man she used to publicly call 'the red cockroach'.

Business daily 'Delo' today announces that Russia is starting a trade war against Ukraine. Heavy industry in the country's eastern oblasts, including Rinat Akhmetov's SCM could be hard hit by shortfalls in deliveries of Russian coking coal.

As these oblasts are most inclined to support closer co-operation with the Russian Federation, wouldn't such a trade war be counter-productive?

ps The Russian Black Sea Fleet is not rushing to return to its base in Crimea. [Maybe to avoid the sight of it's capital ship being limply towed into port?]

If the fleet did indeed suffer damage in the recent conflict with Georgia, then this enabled Yushchenko to score cost-free points by announcing he was restricting their return.

How a flat tyre took the Caucasus to war

"A flat tyre on a Russian diplomatic car triggered the slide to war in Georgia after it forced the cancellation of key peace talks the day before fighting erupted, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.

Trouble had been brewing in the disputed South Ossetian region for weeks as Moscow-backed militias skirmished with Georgian troops, yet Russian-brokered negotiations between the Georgian government and the separatists had continued.

But the first substantial face-to-face talks on August 7 fell through after a farcical chain of events in which the top Russian diplomat claimed he was unable to attend the meeting in South Ossetia because his car tyre had run flat.. "

Read on here

For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

Russian Black Sea Fleet hit?

Maybe I was a bit hard on the Georgian navy in a previous posting.

'Segodnya' reports that Russian ships are not returning to their base in Crimea right now because of damage suffered when engaging Georgian warships. In particular, the flagship missile cruiser 'Moskva', one of the RFBSF's capital ships, had been hit by Georgian shore artillery.

An internet poll on the widely read Russian language 'Segodnya' website asks readers what conclusions should Ukraine draw from the Ossetian-Georgian-Russian conflict.

So far the replies are as follows: Join NATO as quickly as possible - about 30%; secure friendship and integration with Russia - 55%; strengthen its neutrality and keep away from all military-political unions - 15%. LEvko thinks the second option was loaded. Interesting, nevertheless.

This prescient UK Defence Academy paper entitled 'Georgia and Russia - A Further Deterioration in Relations' published just a month ago and accessible here may be of interest:

A brief quote:

"Conjecture and Exploitation

In view of the uneasy, apprehensive and stressful relationship which the smaller state has with its much larger and more powerful neighbour to the north, it is not surprising that suspicion, speculation and conjecture remain high in Georgia aboutRussia’s future intentions with regard to the unrecognised Abkhaz republic and to Georgian aspirations to join NATO. There can be little doubt that the bullying of Georgia will continue. Harassment and manipulation with a view to provoking a hasty, hot-tempered overreaction would of course be a well-tried stratagem."

Gangster state

I particularly liked this commentary in today's London 'Times'

A portion here:

"One of the curious trends of recent years has been the Western business community’s enduring love affair with the unlovely Russia. With every passing week, it becomes clearer that this is a country run by and for people little different from gangsters. The tanks rolling into Georgia have reminded us that they are gangsters with keys to a big arsenal.

The largest Western companies, Shell and BP included, have been bullied, intimidated and forced into concessions by the Kremlin and its cronies. This week a Moscow court joined in the harassment, targeting the head of BP’s troubled joint venture in Russia.

This is a country that defaulted on its overseas debts less than ten years ago; a country that, after its journey from feudalism to kleptocracy via totalitarian communism, has little truck with Western-style capitalism; a country alive with corruption and not averse, it has been suggested, to the occasional state-sponsored murder. Hardly the ideal recipient of Western capital, you might think.

But Western companies have rushed to throw money at Russia, both in direct and indirect investment. The push by City bankers into Moscow and St Petersburg is matched only by the flood of billionaire oligarchs taking money out. There’s perhaps a lesson there. I’d back the oligarchs to make the shrewder investment call..."

Read the whole article here

Tymoshenko on Georgia

Today's 'Segodnya' again writes about PM Yulia Tymoshenko's most uncharacteristic current purdah.

LEvko can inform them that Ms Tymoshenko has been speaking to the "F.T." over a cup of tea. They will be running the interview in tomorrow's edition..

The question now is, have the events of the last few days in Georgia make it more likely, or less likely that Ukrainians would support membership into NATO in any referendum.
On March 11, 2008 I posted this:

"Couple of interesting O.P.'s from today's "Segodnya"

The majority of Ukrainians - 75,1%, approve of neutral status for Ukraine; 9,8% are against, 15,2% had difficulty answering.

62,3% of respondents are in favor of conducting a referendum on the entry of Ukraine into NATO, 24,9% against such a referendum, 12,8% had difficulty answering."

The O.P. indicated that overall, 56% of Ukraine's citizens would be against the entrance of Ukraine in NATO, 21,6% for the enty into the alliance, 8,3% would not participate in any referendum on this question."

Many Ukrainians think Georgians, Ossetians, and other Caucasian nations are, stereotypically, hot-headed cut-throats - I believe sympathy for any of them is limited. Stalin and Beria were Georgians. However, the Kremlin's heavy-handed behaviour in recent days will be a source of great anxiety..The majority may consider that the best guarantee of security for their country would be modern, well-equipped Ukrainian armed forces.

PS A few moments ago the 'Batkivshchyna' website have just posted an official statement from the BYuT VR fraction on the Georgia crisis. It is totally non judgemental - the only criticism is directed at the President's Secretariat.

E.g. "Ukraine's parliament should do everything possible to ensure that our country is not dragged into conflict on any of the sides. The effectiveness of the peacekeeping activities of Ukraine will depend on this.."

This statement is in clear contrast to those being made by the President and his Secretariat. Maybe more on this later.

PS In order to realize Ukraine's dilemma over its stance on NATO and the Georgia crisis, check out this video of BBC Newsnight discussion tonight, paying particular notice of the comments of Aleksander Nekrasov, a normally a level-headed Russian commentator. Take it from 24 minutes into the clip onward..The response from the lady leading the discussion is priceless..

Yulka hedging her bets

Deputy head of President Yushchenko's Secretariat Andriy Kyslynskyi, claims, that according to the Secretariat's investigations: "There are certain agreements between BYuT and Russia's leaders about their support in future elections."

Several NUNS deputies have already suggested the reason for the absence of any comments by PM Tymoshenko on the current S. Ossetian conflict is her wish to gain Russia's support in the 2010 Presidential elections. There are rumours that she is on holiday somewhere on a Mediterranean island.

Head of President Yushchenko's Secretariat Viktor Baloha is demanding Tymoshenko finally comes clean and say whether she is 'for Russia or for Georgia'.

BYuT VR deputy Serhiy Teryokin declared that the dearth of comments from representatives of his party about the events in Georgia is due to their desire "not to fall-out with the President."

Her signature, together with that of Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko is missing from the National Security and Defence Council's decision to limit the movement of Russia's Black sea fleet based in Sevastopol.

She and her ministers may be mindful that soon she will be engaging in tough haggling with Gazprom over fuel price and deliveries. Already some commentators in Moscow have praised her for keeping 'shtum', adding: "Naturally, any increase in tension between Ukraine and Russia would negatively influence all aspects of our co-operation, including gas negotiations."

'Segodnya' reports that President Saakashvili's Dutch wife Sandra is sheltering in a secure government lodge on the Crimean coast together with her children as a guest of President Yushchenko's wife Kateryna. Looks nice. So much better than a bunker in Tbilisi - and may even offer a good view of the war ships bobbing up and down the Black Sea.

Oh, and how come the Georgian navy was caught with its pants down in Poti, allowing their ships to be sunk at their moorings in port?

Ukraine's attitude to the Georgian troubles

According to the Presidential website, Viktor Yushchenko, accompanied by the presidents of Estonia, Lithuania and Poland, and the PM of Latvia, in a remarkable show of solidarity, is today visiting Tbilisi with the aim of "providing support for Georgia, and also assisting to achieve regulation of the current [Russian-Georgian] conflict..."

"The Ukrainian side considers this common mission of the heads of democratic European states an important part of the efforts of the international community to maintain and guarantee the territorial unity and sovereignty of independent Georgia," says the posting.

A quick look at the websites of other Ukrainian political parties is revealing:

The 'Batkivschyna' party site [whose largest constituent is BYuT] announces that the Ukrainian government, with Yulia Tymshenko at the helm, is to provide humanitarian help to the Georgian population, and that additional aircraft are being provided to assist in evacuation of Ukrainian citizens from that country.

Tymoshenko's own personal site has similar messages. But the latest posting on her site is one of congratulation to an Olympic sportsman for gaining a medal in Beijing in the Jujitsu discipline.

Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions' site announces they are sending humanitarian aid to Ossetians and Georgian families. They are also demanding an emabargo on the supply of weapons to Georgia, whilst PoR spokesperson Hanna Herman considers there is a need to look into the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' competence in investigating the supply of weaponry to global "hot-spots". [Russia had alleged Ukraine had been supplying Georgia with weapons.]

There is also some criticism of the current authority: "The irresponsible confrontational actions of the current authorities are leading to Ukraine being dragged into the conflict between Georgia and Russia. We demand such practices be stopped....PoR condemns any agressive acts directed toward solving regional conflicts by means of force. We call for termination of military action and for the immediate return to peaceful negotiations...PoR appeals to western politicians not to employ dual standards both in the Georgian-South Ossetian-Russian conflict, and in their approach to all other regional problems as one-sided support of one or other side creates dangerous precedents....We appeal primarily to the Ukrainian leadership not to support just one side of the conflict, [but to] conduct a balanced and wise foreign policy in the conflict involving the three sides and to consider the national interests of Ukraine."

PoR and BYuT are by far the two largest political parties in Ukraine. They know which way the wind is now blowing..

p.s. - Something to think about from today's London 'Times' here

Georgia crisis

Check out this interview with old warhorse Richard Holbrooke on the crisis in South Ossetia crisis.

On Thursday the 'Economist' predicted: "It is all too easy to imagine misjudgements on either side leading to a real war." How right they were.

The Russian Foreign Ministry is already trying to put some of the blame for the problems on Ukraine Also here

'Semi-official' Russian observers claim "Western countries and Ukraine have supplied Georgia with an arsenal of heavy weaponry.."

LEvko's view is that Russia doesn't give a fig about Ossetians.

S. Ossetia is all but cut of from N. Ossetia during the winter. What this is all about is about 'The Great Game' and the trashing of Georgia's desire to join NATO.

Nevertheless, the Ossetians [and Abkhazians] have national rights too..

Ukrainian political battle could hit European gas prices

This excerpt from an interesting article entitled:

"Ukrainian political battle could hit European gas prices" from today's British 'Daily Telegraph':

"President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko, former allies since the Orange Revolution in 2004, are locked in a mounting conflict over the price of the gas that is piped across the Ukraine. The country's role as the transit country for 73pc of Western Europe's gas being exported by Russia and the CIS countries makes it vital to the EU's energy markets. What happens in the Ukraine affects what happens further west.
At the heart of the conflict is Tymoshenko's desire to abolish an intermediary arrangement that currently involves gas coming from Russia passing through a Ukrainian company called RosUkrEnergo. Instead she plans to buy gas directly from Russia and the CIS countries, through NaftagasUkrainy, controlled by her government. This is a move that most independent analysts agree will raise the price of gas for consumers in Western Europe.

"Such a course, abolishing a middleman, will increase the price of natural gas and will cause instability in the Ukraine", according to Lidia Lowson at the American Centre for Political Monitoring. "From this instability Tymoshenko will be able to impose her own middleman to calm the situation. That man will be Gayduk.

When contacted, Gayduk's office said he was unavailable for comment.

The reason that the price of gas will rise if bought directly rather than through an intermediary is that its price will be fixed by governments - principally Ukraine's and Russia's - rather than by organisations that operate through commercial criteria.
"Without an intermediary, the governments of Tymoshenko and [Dmitry] Medvedev will be able to dictate prices," Inna Weiss of the Central Group of European Political Monitoring says. "With the existing situation there is a clear interest in co-operation and good relationships with Western Europe. That is what Yushchenko represents."

Is it just me, or is there a whiff of gaseous spin in the air? Would the Kremlin ever permit Ukraine to sell gas westward?

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Head of the Presidential Secretariat, Viktor Baloha, on the President's website yesterday accused BYuT of co-operating with the Communists in a report entitled: 'Tight relations between BYuT and the communists are ever more clearly defining the contours of the new majority in the Verkhovna Rada'.

He claims the two parties, together with a portion of NUNS will be forming a new coalition.

He mentions the betrayal of Oleksandr Moroz's Socialists in 2006 in favour of PoR and claims, "Now it is BYuT that find themselves in the role of traitors in the coalition of democratic values.."

He criticizes BYuT for supporting Davyd Zhvaniya, whom the President accused recently of being implicated in his poisoning [After nearly 4 years the Pres. remembers, hmm....]

He comments on Tymoshenko's absence for the commemoration of 1020 years since the conversion of Kyivan Rus' to Christianity thus: Yulia Tymoshenko explained her absence with various excuses: at first it was illness, then later other important circumstances, finally a vacation. "Is it possible that the leader of government adheres not to the orthodox faith, but to some other faith, maybe shintoism or buddhism?" This final snide, rather offensive comment says more about Baloha than Tymoshenko..

Lytvyn returning into the spotlight

'Kommentarii' run a story shedding light on Volodymyr Lytvyn's attempt to return to the top flight of Ukrainian politics.

Here are some [loosely] translated portions:

Volodymyr Lytvyn has begun a p.r. campaign to regain his status as the all-Ukrainian peacemaker, but this time he will try to reconcile not the 'white and blue' Party of Regions and the 'Orange' camps, but rather NUNS and BYuT. The Lytvyn Bloc [LB] press-service has hinted that the Lytvynites are prepared to take part in the reformatting the ruling coalition.

The LB have been speaking about possible participation in the reformatting of the coalition for a long time already. Lytvyn not unreasonably hopes that his engagement as a peacemaker between BYuT and NUNS may improve his national image.

The reality is that the conflict between the prime minister and the President has reached deadlock. On the one hand, Yulia Tymoshenko leads a semi-legitimate minority coalition from which could leave, at any moment, tens of deputies linked to the President's Secretariat on Bank Street. On the other hand, the President's Secretariat, even though it has the means to bring down the 'democratic' coalition, is absolutely not capable of creating a new majority. So both the President's Secretariat and Tymoshenko are looking ever more often toward Lytvyn as a possible ally in their coalition. Both think that Lytvyn would rather help them than the other.

Until recently the LB fraction has operated more closely on political policy with head of the Pres's Secretariat, Viktor Baloha; however the refusal of the Lytyvynites to support the vote of no confidence in PM Tymoshenko in the VR, tends to indicate that the prime minister has began to work more closely with Volodymyr Mykhaylovych [Lytyvyn]. The government in their changes in the budget has satisfied a number of policy positions lobbied by the Lytvynites. The prime minister is also ready to promote one of Lytvyn's pet schemes - an all-Ukrainian forum with the participation of the President, the government, members of parliament and heads of local governments and local authorities. After the forum is held, at which he, of course would play the major role of chief moderator, a public contract would be signed. Lytvyn has also recently contemptiously called Baloha's 'Yedyniy Tsentr' project as 'an immature party', which should please Tymoshenko also.

Bank Street is, of course, concerned by the warming of relationships between Lytvyn and Tymoshenko and under no circumstances would agree to the entry of the Lytyvynites into a coalition as covert allies of BYuT. But for the prime minister, reformatting the coalition to include the LB fraction is not too favourable either— in that case she would not be able to restrict the small concessions to LB as mentioned above. After signing of any new coalition agreement several Lytvynites could enter the cabinet, while some NUNS ministers close to her, e.g. Yuriy Lutsenko, could depart. It's no secret that Lytvyn would very much like to return to the VR speaker's chair, which would benefit neither Bank Street, nor Tymoshenko who has now sorted out her relationship with Arseniy Yatsenyuk again. Neither Yulia T, nor Yushchenko and Baloha wish to see Lytvyn as head of the VR because he would use this position to play his own game by all means possible. So at the moment tentative links with Lytvyn, and situational help from his party in exchange for certain concessions suits both Bank Street, and Tymoshenko.

In turn, Lytvyn also benefits from the current situation. Volodymyr Mykhaylovych is not rejecting the strategic possibility of participating in the coalition with BYuT and NUNS with all the benefits accruing from this, but is taking into account possible public relations benefits. He is hoping to gain favour amongst the orange electorate as the leader of a third force and a wise moderator placed between a warring prime minister and President. In this respect he could even forgo his desire to be VR speaker if a tripartite coalition were to be formed.

Lytvyn may also be aiming for higher things. He may be setting himself up for participation in next year's presidential race, hoping to eclipse the the current president, Viktor Yushchenko, whose ratings continue to steadily fall, by presenting himself as the main moderate orange alternative to Yulia Tymoshenko.

According to 'Kommentarii', Lytvyn is also being encouraged by people from within the Kremlin who have promised to give him their blessing rather than to Yanukovych, Tymoshenko or Yushchenko. In this regard, Lytvyn's statements about postponing decisions on the debatable questions separating society, e.g.relations with NATO, language and religious questions, the Black Sea fleet and the historical past, do not appear arbitrary. All these policy messages from Lytvyn, and support from Moscow could be useful not only in presidential, but in parliamentary elections. Lytvyn believes that an early parliamentary election, as well as President election may take place soon, and he would like to start his election campaign before anyone else. For this reason the Lytvynites have disturbed the summer political calm.

Presidential website becoming a rag

Head of President Yushchenko's secretariat, Viktor Baloha, continues his risible criticism of PM Yuliya Tymoshenko in a recent posting on the President's official website.

He accuses the PM of working actively with PoR head, Viktor Yanukovych: "for the purpose of gaining advantages in the future presidential elections." In his opinion, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych: "frequently operate in a tactical tandem, despite their declared irreconcilable differences".

Baloha claims that: "It is quite likely that there will be joint voting [in the VR] by the ByuT and 'Regiony' fractions for a new Constitution."

"This strange union between the ruling coalition and the opposition has a wholly prosaic explanation: the dream of both Y. Tymoshenko and V Yanukovych for the presidential post. Both political forces cheer themselves in the hope that together they may achieve the acceptance of beneficial decisions for themselves. These calculations are also made in order to gain some kind of advantages in relationships with the current head of state. However, such a construct is illusory...It is not worth expecting that [these kind] of anomalous tandems can sway President Yushchenko's positions or obstruct him to embody his declared path for the country's development, economic reform and social changes which can provide an improved [living] standard for people," said Baloha.

Baloha [concerning her recent visits to Poland, and particularly Russia] continues : "She made generous promises...of co-operation in [areas of] sensitive interest with the two neighbouring states, particularly in economics. The aims of such assurances is the search for support in future elections in exchange for substantial dividends after victory."

"It is clear that Y. Tymoshenko right now is trying to run the country as [if it were] her own dacha. On her foreign visits, without batting an eyelid, she promises her foreign interlocutors that what they are interested in. The prime minister is not greatly concerned that these promises should coincide with the interests of Ukraine. After all, personal plans and ambitions are above all!"

As further evidence of Tymoshenko's presidential ambitions Baloha cites incessant attempts by her to place under her personal control international economic projects, started without participation of the KabMin. This, he claims, is necessary in order to change their participants and introduce 'friendly' companies, giving them prefence in exchange for their political and financial support. The benefits from such exchange are intended to fund the BYuT leader's presidential campaign.

LEvko says the President and PoR have been sniffing one another's **** for many months in the hope of forming the fabled broad coalition. But when BYuT and Regiony, the two biggest political forces in the country, speak to one another, this is considered an 'abnormal tandem'.

There is no evidence provided on the Presidential site to support the serious allegations mentioned above. Well over a thousand of Ukraine's brightest work at the President's Secretariat - they should be able to produce more than this kind of political agitprop. Baloha's desperate comments are not worthy of a nation's Presidential website.

Difficulties for any political 'third force'

Some portions from an article in the latest 'Kommentarii' weekly, giving reasons why any 'third force' is unlikely to emerge in Ukrainian politics any time soon, even though the current polarized 'orange'-'white and blue' political set-up that sprung forth after the Orange Revolution has not produced much benefit to the country:

"One of the central problems for the forces who have pretentions to be a 'third alternative' is the absence in their structures of charismatic leaders. No matter how interesting their party program is, Ukrainian voters invariably make their choice according to personalities. Competent election campaigns with promotion of party leaders have proven to be decisive. Because Ukraine has been living in what can be described as a permanent election campaign race in recent times, new forces never have the opportunity to shine, and if they do, the main political heavyweights 'buy them up', and the existing organizational structures of any third force are merged or absorbed by the major players.

The second problem for 'third forces' is even more difficult — they do not propose practically any alternative ideological messages. At best they manage to develop creative ideas already instigated by the leading political players, and at worst they merely plagiarize them. The thesis, 'they are all bad, and only we care about the interests of the people', seldom finds an adequate response in the hearts of electorate, more likely, it creates even more scepticism. And Ukrainian votes tend to vote only for parties that have solid prospects for entering parliament.

Finally, the the third problem for 'third forces' is the bi-polarity of the Ukrainian politicum, looking either towards the West, or to Moscow, where there is simply no place for any alternative third view. The maximum that can be be hoped for by those entering the big game and who want to 'graze' on either Pro-Russian, or westernized electoral fields, is to steal votes from the true keepers of these two vectors. Moreover, while the definitive geopolitical choice for Ukraine is undecided, political struggles cannot turn to everyday matters, and the creation of an effective project geared to the needs of a certain social group, is simply unreal.

There are many examples in the country's contemporary history where movements based on agricultural workers, youth, feminists, and even ecological movements were only ever marginal. Besides, there have been separate sections for quite a while already for all these target audiences in the programs of the 'first' and 'second forces."

Also from 'Kommentarii', this:

Economic problems of Russia's Fifth column' in Ukraine.

In the light of a new wave of political, economic and informational pressure from Russia on Ukraine it is becoming clear that the Kremlin has no-one in Ukraine to promote its anti-Ukrainian messages. In earlier times Party of Regions would loyally repeat them, but now support for the Russian initiatives in the 'blue and white' camp can be heard only from isolated, withered voices.

Recent statements from Moscow have put 'Regionaly' in a rather uncomfortable position. This is revealed by the opinions of PoR leader Viktor Yanukovych who stated that the Russian State Duma statement on the possibility of revision of wide-ranging Russian-Ukrainian agreements were an unpleasant surprise. The declaration of the vice-premier of the Russian Federation Sergey Ivanov, that Russia will be compelled to respond to Ukraine's entry into NATO with the introduction of a visa regime for Ukrainians, was self-consciously called by Viktor Fedorovych, as "just a proposal".

It is clear that PoR has declined to make any firm statements, indicating an unstable internal situation exists inside 'Reginaly'. It's no secret that PoR's Ahmetov-Kolesnikov wing co-ordinates its activities in many matters with the Presidential Secretariat, which has its own views on the 'Russian vector'. Therefore it is not convenient for Regionaly right now to echo Moscow's opinions and enter into conflict with Viktor Yushchenko. In this context it is necessary to note that this conditionally"pro-presidential" wing of PoR controls a number of radically Pro-Russian organisations in Donbas, e.g the recently forbidden civic organisation 'Donetskaya Respublika', 'Svyatogora', and 'Union born by Revolution'. The Donetsk City Council Secretary Nikolai Levchenko who carefully cultivates an image of an ardent fighter with Ukrainian nationalism, is considered a protege of Boris Kolesnikov.

In Crimea there is a similar situation; 'Regionaly', having secured themselves at local authority level, do not see any economic reason for close co-operation with the Kremlin. If in earlier times financial assistance from Moscow was an attractive bonus for maintaining 'correct ideology', now there is less economic sense for the leaders of the Autonomous Republic to go into conflict with Kyiv. In order for the Kremlin to advance its policies in Ukraine it is compelled to work with political outcasts - The Progressive Socialists of Natalia Vitrenko, the Party Russian-Ukrainian Union, the Crimean Communist Leonid Grach and others. However these forces are only capable of making a lot of noise and creating an informational background, but cannot really help Russia in any way to lobby its interests in Ukraine.

Out for summer

So the dust covers have been placed over the chairs in Ukraine's parliament for the summer recess. Sittings will resume on 2nd of September. Yulia Tymoshenko's cabinet easily survived a no confidence vote today because Communist party and Lytvyn bloc deputies reneged on their promises to support an attempt by 'Regionaly' to bring down her government.

BYuT deputies had been alerted earlier in the week to the possibility of such a vote being proposed by a rare sighting of PoR deputy Rinat Akhmetov in the vicinity of the VR. Many of his party colleagues had already departed for their summer holidays to tropical islands but had been rounded up, in some cases by charter aircraft, for the vote. They were not best pleased.

But politiking will go on. The 'Yedynyi Tsentr' project is being wheeled out at a big meeting tomorrow - will it fizzle out on the launch pad?

PoR propose amending Constitution

Today Party of Regions presented their proposed parliamentary bill to amend certain articles in the Constitution of Ukraine.

The main points:

• Non aligned status for Ukraine
• A single 'vertical' executive power structure
• Judicial reform
• Russian as a second state language

A 'Regiony' spokesman, Oleksandr Lavrynovych, claimed that it was "quite realistic and possible" 300 deputies' signatures could be collected in support of the bill. This could occur even by next week.

Other observers described as "minimal" the chances of PoR's constitutional project containing the points above being passed through parliament.

PoR currently have 175 deputies in the VR. Maybe they should go back and redo their homework.