Thursday, December 23, 2004

An appeal

We hear that Yanukovych supporters are taking the Supreme Court ruling to the Constitutional Court to have it declared whatever they would declare it. (It's not an appeal so they wouldn't reverse it. I guess they would void it in some way or issue an order against its enforcement.)

Yanukovych's clan is exhausting their remedies with those institutions they used to control. We'll see what happens here if this is accurate. If the Constitutional Court does not have jurisdiction, they would do well to dismiss it. If they don't, they had better find a way to avoid the issue. There is certainty now that there wasn't before the Supreme Court ruled and there has been no violence. If it were overturned in some way, that would lead to a whole lot of uncertainty and who knows what else which could not benefit anyone not even the Constitutional Court. (They have to go home and live in the community. The ivory tower shuts up for the night.) That has to weigh on them if they know what is good for them. (Seeing the mighty fallen has to be a lesson for them too.) And I suspect they detect the sea change even if they have been susceptible to "inducements" before. So I think they will find a way to duck it or agree with it.

If they don't what would happen? If they constitutionally overturned the Supreme Court's ruling what would happen then? Would Kuchma cancel the election? He might but he must see something in it that works to his interest or he wouldn't have caved in in the first place. (I think there must have been a deal to spare him which would not sit well with certain members of the Yuschenko camp. I don't think that is a bad thing either because Yuschenko et al do not have time nor do they have an unlimited amount of political capital to spend on a series of trials of high officials. They have other things they have to do and they have to do them fast.)

But if he did cancel the election, are people going to put up with that? And would they think they could count on another peaceful demonstration like before? Aren't people going to be fed up with it and look for ways to take more direct action? Could they contain what happened then if they didn't think they could contain it in the first place (which is what I think happened)? This is not to say that he won't do it, but not doing it would be more consistent with what he has ended up having done than doing it would be. And he has less power to make things happen now than he did then.

I get a sense that people are weary of maneuvering right now. And a people who are weary of it may just be tired enough to sweep away everything, or at least to try. That would be a real revolution and it could suck everyone in.

1 comment:

Ron said...

This is only one of so many things the crooks are up to - the next few days are going to be very interesting.

And, maybe not in a happy way. Let's just pray that all their efforts fail.