Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Martial law

There is a lot to be said on this subject but I don't have any time today to do it. I will just say though that there is not anyone completely in charge of the government and the military and if it is thought that Kuchma would have a free hand in declaring and imposing martial law, that would be wrong. If he tried, it would create more unpredictability rather than less. Who would be following whom and for what purpose is not all that clear right now.

Of course the idea of terrorist kinds of acts would be a way of forcing him to do it. And that just might happen if the paramilitary guys are out there and are really up to something. (I would assume they are.) But if anyone thinks that that is some sort of clear shot for Kuchma and the oligarchs to retain power they had better think again. It is just not all that clear who is in charge of what here anymore.


Ron said...

"..who is in charge of what here.."Indeed, it is still a tricky and dangerous time, Scott. But, yesterday Putin may have thrown a large bucket of cold water on nefarious plans - with his statement that, "the Kremlin would work well with Viktor Yushchenko."

That may have been about as strong a signal to the outgoing Kuchma-thug crowd he could have sent. It may not end the possibility of real trouble - but, it has to help, and it may have cost the thugs a larger percentage of votes than anyone might yet expect.

Ron said...

"Kuchma would have a free hand.."!

On second thought though, there are a LOT of people headed for prison, perhaps Kuchma himself. I'm not convinced we won't see assassinations, and whatever other means deemed necessary to protect the guilty - if it appears there is no other recourse.

That thought still gives me great pause... no matter the hopeful signs that lull beyond the highest possible vigilance.

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