Friday, May 23, 2008

Tymoshenko to go in June?

Today the staid 'Ekonomicheskie Izvestia' [EI] ran this story:

[President's] Secretariat has devised a new format for the coalition

Yulia Tymoshenko's government could be forced to resign by a resolution of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), whose next session could take place on May 30th, according to a source close to the Security Council leadership.

The basis for the resignation could be the new version of the law on the Cabinet of Ministers, according to which the government is obliged to comply with any decision of the NSDC and activated by Presidential Decree. Yesterday the NSDC Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova reported that the main topic of the May 30th Council session will be the activity of government, adding that this was at the initiation of Viktor Yushchenko.

Also in some mass media outlets there has appeared information yesterday, that the government coulk be sacked already today. The premier would be replaced by VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with Bohatyryova taking over his current post. According to EI, the source for this information was one a Party of Regions people's deputy who is close to Viktor Yanukovych.

But NSDC deputy secretary Andriy Pyshnyi told EI that the Security Council does not have sufficient authority to make a decision on the resignation of government. "On May 30th we will examine the state of the domestic market and there will, possibly be proposed a question on the control of execution of decisions of the NSDC," said Pyshnyi.

PoR people's deputy Vasyl Khara considers that Viktor Yushchenko cannot yet force Tymoshenko's resignation. “Yushchenko does not have a realistic mechanism for this - in parliament he has insufficient votes,” stated Khara. He considers that there will not be a direct proposal from the President at the next session of the NSDC demanding the resignation of the premier: “There will be only open and comprehensive evaluation of Tymoshenko's activities in order to create a situation, where the President no longer owes Tymoshenko anything". The Deputy emphasized that the parliamentary forces will not begin to undertake any active actions until after May 25th - the day of the pre-term Kyiv mayoral and city council elections.

Another PoR People's deputy Vladislav Lukyanov thinks the resignation of government could occur during the first 10 days of June. 'DerzhKomStat' will publish data on the rates of inflation in May by June 6th or 7th. It will be politically justifiable to force the government to resign precisely after this publication,” stated Lukyanov.

One additional path to the resignation of government could be the reformation of the BYuT/NUNS coalition. Yesterday Yulia Tymoshenko spoke of attempts by the President's secretariat to force the 'People's Self-defence' (NS) to support the creation of a wide coalition. She described the actions of Presidential secretariat officials directed against VR deputy Davyd Zhvaniya. The Prosecutor General Olexander Medvedko, on the basis of a letter from deputy head of the secretariat Ihor Pukshin, referred a request to the Svyatoshinskiy regional court in Kiev demanding they re-examine the granting of Ukrainian citizenship to Zhvaniya. [Update: a criminal case has now been opened against Zhvaniya, who was of course, one of Yushchenko's closest allies during the OR].

The Secretariat wants to be the third participant in the coalition, Viktor Baloha through his seven loyal Nasha Ukraina deputies, wants to hold the decisive vote, according to deputy chairman of the NUNS fraction, Taras Stetskiv. The People's Self defense group had already requested the President sacks Baloha. But Taras Stetskiv added that a joint statement from BYuT and NUNS demanding Viktor Baloha's resignation "has thus far not yet been prepared”.

p.s. Today it was PoR's turn to block the working of the VR.
Update: The blocking of parliament stymied the deal struck between coalition partners NUNS and BYuT to support the sacking of Valentyna Semenyuk [who according to president Yushchenko, is still head of the State Property Fund] in exchange for BYuT dropping their proposal to form a temporary special commission to investigate changes to the Constitution. Semenyuk at the SPF has been a major obstruction to PM Tymoshenko's privatization plans.


UkrToday said...

I do not believe the NSDC, which operates as some kind of star executive chamber, has the authority to dismiss the government. But hey this is Ukraine and the president is renowned for his unconstitutional activities.

There are a number of provisions of the new revised Law on the Cabinet that are highly questionable and should be referred to the CCU for review. Previously Party of Regions has indicated that they would do just that.

The revised Law on the Cabinet seeks to usurp power and authority where it has no authority.

Yulia should have deferred is acceptance pending the outcome of constitutional reform.

The only way a new government can be formed is if the parliament moves a vote of no confidence in Tymoshchenko's government and then resolves on the basis of the "Imperative Mandate" to support a new coalition. To achieve this the support of 37 OU-PSD parliamentary members would be needed to direct the faction.

If such an unholy alliance has been formed then one can only speculate until facts are disclosed the term and basis of any agreement.

Yushchenko was facing the axe, with Yulia supporting the transition to a full parliamentary democracy. She was supposed to release her draft constitutional bill last week but failed to do so. The passing of the Law of Cabinet may very well have been her down fall as it in theory stands until and if the CCU rules otherwise.

If such a realignment of power does take place it makes a mockery once again of the President Office and his decision to undermine Ukraine's democratic development and in the process inflict considerable economic damage to Ukraine that flows on from its continuing political instability.

Once again it is the President's office that is the cause of ongoing devisive conflict.

A realignment of power before constitutional reforms and before fresh Presidential elections would have a very damaging long term effect on Ukraine.

The only real solution for Ukraine's ongoing political conflict is constitutional reform and a move to a full parliamentary democracy.

Gene said...

I agree that Yush has become the problem. I hate to say this, as previously, I've been a big Yush supporter. He moved Ukraine on the path of democracy, but things have changed since Baloha came on board...and these are not good changes.

It disappoints me that Yush did not attempt to work with Yulia, instead preferring to undermine her and to attack her publicly instead of attempting to work with her in public as most normal adults will do...when they are on a team.

While I have a fair amount of confidence in Yatsenyuk, I have none in Yush and his priorities. Perhaps his priorities haven't changed and have always been in this direction...just another corrupt political leader of Ukraine.

My sense is that this is going to be his attempt at a grand coalition with PR. One has to believe that all his meetings with Renat were helpful in setting this up.

I believe that the problem in any coalition with PR is going to be Yanu. Renat may have money and some power, but the true power in PR is still Yanu and I sense he favors Yulia and a parliamentary with such, he believes he can obtain the power he has desired since 2004.

What angers me the most is that Yush and Yulia had a great opportunity to do GREAT things for Ukraine. Thanks to Yush and Baloha's constant attempts to undermine her and to weaken her, he has given Yanu and PR new life...which is not good for Ukraine.

A Yanu lead Ukraine could very easily become another I've seen no democratic tendencies from Yanu.

Renat and some of the PR industrialists may prefer closer ties with Europe, as it may mean more money and expansion, but with Yanu in power...I tend to believe he will be no different than Lukashenko in Belarus...and the other oligarchs in PR will have to toe the line...or else.

Anonymous said...

Mind you it was rumoured that Tymoshchenko's government would collapse early May. Yushchenko will not survive a political realignment if 37 members of Our Ukraine Peoples self-defence decide to shift alliances. what was his point ion calling fresh elections in 2007 only to then resinate the same faction in 2008. Was the 2007 election designed just to remove the Socialist party from a position of power? Or was it really designed to destabilise Ukraine's in a pure and simple power struggle game? A very costly one at that. Surely it would be in the Presidents and Party of Regions interest to hold ground and abide their time until November when Party of Regions can force fresh elections, better still would be to wait until Presidential elections are due and kill two birds with one stone. To dismiss Yulia now would make a martyr of her. wait a little longer and she will not be in a position to even challenge Yushchenko.

Anonymous said...

She was supposed to 'GO' in April, with the 'Broad Coalition' what ever happened to THAT!!!!, She keeps delaying the inevitable. She's a joke, just like VDC!!!