Today the staid 'Ekonomicheskie Izvestia' [EI] ran this story:
[President's] Secretariat has devised a new format for the coalition
Yulia Tymoshenko's government could be forced to resign by a resolution of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), whose next session could take place on May 30th, according to a source close to the Security Council leadership.
The basis for the resignation could be the new version of the law on the Cabinet of Ministers, according to which the government is obliged to comply with any decision of the NSDC and activated by Presidential Decree. Yesterday the NSDC Secretary Raisa Bohatyryova reported that the main topic of the May 30th Council session will be the activity of government, adding that this was at the initiation of Viktor Yushchenko.
Also in some mass media outlets there has appeared information yesterday, that the government coulk be sacked already today. The premier would be replaced by VR speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with Bohatyryova taking over his current post. According to EI, the source for this information was one a Party of Regions people's deputy who is close to Viktor Yanukovych.
But NSDC deputy secretary Andriy Pyshnyi told EI that the Security Council does not have sufficient authority to make a decision on the resignation of government. "On May 30th we will examine the state of the domestic market and there will, possibly be proposed a question on the control of execution of decisions of the NSDC," said Pyshnyi.
PoR people's deputy Vasyl Khara considers that Viktor Yushchenko cannot yet force Tymoshenko's resignation. “Yushchenko does not have a realistic mechanism for this - in parliament he has insufficient votes,” stated Khara. He considers that there will not be a direct proposal from the President at the next session of the NSDC demanding the resignation of the premier: “There will be only open and comprehensive evaluation of Tymoshenko's activities in order to create a situation, where the President no longer owes Tymoshenko anything". The Deputy emphasized that the parliamentary forces will not begin to undertake any active actions until after May 25th - the day of the pre-term Kyiv mayoral and city council elections.
Another PoR People's deputy Vladislav Lukyanov thinks the resignation of government could occur during the first 10 days of June. 'DerzhKomStat' will publish data on the rates of inflation in May by June 6th or 7th. It will be politically justifiable to force the government to resign precisely after this publication,” stated Lukyanov.
One additional path to the resignation of government could be the reformation of the BYuT/NUNS coalition. Yesterday Yulia Tymoshenko spoke of attempts by the President's secretariat to force the 'People's Self-defence' (NS) to support the creation of a wide coalition. She described the actions of Presidential secretariat officials directed against VR deputy Davyd Zhvaniya. The Prosecutor General Olexander Medvedko, on the basis of a letter from deputy head of the secretariat Ihor Pukshin, referred a request to the Svyatoshinskiy regional court in Kiev demanding they re-examine the granting of Ukrainian citizenship to Zhvaniya. [Update: a criminal case has now been opened against Zhvaniya, who was of course, one of Yushchenko's closest allies during the OR].
The Secretariat wants to be the third participant in the coalition, Viktor Baloha through his seven loyal Nasha Ukraina deputies, wants to hold the decisive vote, according to deputy chairman of the NUNS fraction, Taras Stetskiv. The People's Self defense group had already requested the President sacks Baloha. But Taras Stetskiv added that a joint statement from BYuT and NUNS demanding Viktor Baloha's resignation "has thus far not yet been prepared”.
p.s. Today it was PoR's turn to block the working of the VR.
Update: The blocking of parliament stymied the deal struck between coalition partners NUNS and BYuT to support the sacking of Valentyna Semenyuk [who according to president Yushchenko, is still head of the State Property Fund] in exchange for BYuT dropping their proposal to form a temporary special commission to investigate changes to the Constitution. Semenyuk at the SPF has been a major obstruction to PM Tymoshenko's privatization plans.