Thursday, October 30, 2008

Chances of December VR election receeding?

Ukraine`s parliament has given initial approval to a package of bills needed to receive an emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund, BYuT and NUNS voted together, but only two PoR deputies supported the motion.

But the parliament failed to introduce changes to the budget and provide 400 million hryven for elections even though NUNS deputies, voting with PoR to support the motion, used the voting cards of absent colleagues. The voting result indicated 170 out of 172 PoR deputies supported the motion, but only 35 Nasha Ukraina deputies voted with them. The NUNS bloc won 72 seats in last year's VR elections. [So 'heap big' problems in the presidential camp - opinion poll ratings show most if not all of the NUNS deputies would lose their seats in any early election - turkeys voting for Christmas??]

Yushchenko admitted that elections cannot take place without funds being first approved by parliament.

Tymoshenko now claims the Orange coalition can be brought back to life again.

Is this part of [alleged] pre-arranged set-up for a possible deferred parliamentary election in the Spring?

p.s. The general director of the huge Ilich Mariupol MetKombinat, Volodymyr Boyko, declared his plant is in severe economic trouble and that he would agree to its nationalisation. Boyko said that the situation is bad in all of Ukraine's metallurgical plants, and gloomily predicted "Hundreds of thousands of workers could find themselves on the street in the near future."

Update: Even PoR big-wheel Andriy Kluyev considers elections could well take place February next year.


Anonymous said...

There is a way out of this mess.

1. Yushchenko resigns. knowing full well that he does not have the support of the Ukrainian People and that it will be impossible for him to win a second term

2. Yatseniuk, Speaker of Te Parliament becomes Ukraine's new head of state and he immediately seeks to restore the "Democratic Coalition

Yulia has stated previously that she would be prepared to support a single candidate from the "Democratic Forces" but she steered clear from nominating Yushchenko. It may be that if Yatseniuk can prove himself he might get the nod, although I think Yatseniuk is still too green to take on the role of President.

A better alternative for president would be Hryhoriy Nemyria. Yulia can then remain leader of the Parliamentary Party

With Yushchenko out of the way Ukraine can begin to heal the division created during Yushchenko's failed term of office.

The Parliament would be able to openly debate and adopt a new Constitution based on a European Parliamentary System of Governance and true democratic values. Removing the power from the head of state and in the process put an end to the divisive power struggle between Parliament and the President.

On completion of Constitutional Reform both Parliament and the President can face elections together under the terms of Ukraine's new democratic constitution.

The key being the resignation or ousting of Yushchenko.

UkrToday said...

There was an interesting news report on the voting of finances for the election

It appears that whilst there is not a majority of members of Parliament prepared or able to support the formation of a parliamentary majority government, a majority are not prepared to support the holding of fresh elections at this present time.

The President's faction OU-PSD are not united in supporting Yushchenko's destabalization plan.

There is nothing new about minority governments. As long as Julia has the support and vote of confidence of a majority of the Parliament Yushchenko is caught between two different points of reality.

The Constitutional "Imperative Mandate" and the will of individual members of parliament

in 2007 we saw Yushchenko unconstitutionally dismiss the parliament because individuals were being lobbied to support the government's proposed constitutional reform which would have seen Ukraine adopt a democratic Parliamentary system of governance.

This year Yushchenko is has tried a different tact. Face against with the possibility of Constitutional reform to his liking Yushchenko has had a majority of his faction agree to withdraw from the Coalition forcing a minority grouping to also abandon the faction.

But when you add the numbers of the disenfranchised and other minor parties such as the Lytvyn bloc and the Communists, there is a majority of members of parliament that disapprove of the president calling of a snap poll.

Unless the president can obtain the support of a majority members of parliament "Catch 22" no money no election

Last year the US stepped in and offered to find the election. Will they do the same this year? Unlikely as Yushchenko's gamble is certain to back fire on him.

The main party to benefit from fresh elections is Party of Regions because they will secure control over Government. No one else wants to spend their money and limited resources.

Unless the President is hoping to form an alliance with Party of Regions what is his game plan other then to desttableize Ukraine and it's economy?

Somehow, judjing by the lack of activity on the streets, I think Yushchenko has called an election that no one really wants except him and oath of Regions. It does not look like it will happen this year that's for sure.

We can expect a spring election with the President also facing the people of Ukraine. This was the same deal sought back in 2007. Maybe in 2009 Yushchenko will have no other alternative but to except the compromise on offer as Ukraine's economy begins to buckle under the strain, pressure will be brought to bear ion Yushchenko to accept a compromise and early presidential elections my be the deal maker. Either Way Yushchenko is the real loser in this round if not the match.