As Mustafa Nayem and Serhiy Leshchenko point out in an article in U.P. any Yushchenko-led party standing for election in the proposed December 7th elections will be in an untenable position.
The president in his address to the nation on Wednesday explained that the reason for calling early elections was BYuT's 'betrayal' of its partner NUNS in the democratic coalition.
On returning from the summer recess on September 2nd BYuT promptly voted in concert with PoR to enact laws weakening the president's authority.
Yushchenko said: "The events of 2nd September and those decisions which were accepted in parliament, unconditionally made the [further] existence of the democratic coalition impossible. And from 3rd September, de jure, the collapse of the coalition was announced [by NUNS].
In early VR elections any President-led party will most likely come in third, or worse, the first two places being fought over by PoR and BYuT.
Any rapprochement between BYuT and NUNS is most unlikely as this would mean returning to Tymoshenko powers that president has taken from her by dismissing parliament. Furthermore Tymoshenko and Yushchenko will be slugging it out for the orange electorates' vote in next year's presidential elections.
On the other hand, any hint of movement by the presidential bloc toward PoR will be fully expoited by BYuT as indication of an oligarchic conspiracy between PoR money-bags Rinat Akhmetov, and the president.
LEvko thinks that just over a month ago BYuT and PoR launched a plan that had clearly been prepared during the summer recess to truncate the president's authority. Now PoR are quite keen on early elections because they have a good chance of winning and returning to government. If PoR are back in power after the election how can the president be sure they will not revert back to that same policy as agreed with BYuT during the summer and 'shaft' him again? He knows that as president he could probably live with one opponent..but not with two..hence the presidential secretariat's vicious campaign to destroy the weaker.
It was a PoR-led parliament that was dismissed kicking and screaming by Yushchenko last year. This year it is BYuT. My guess is that there is a lot of capital deposited in PoR's 'grudge bank' last year waiting to be cashed in by PoR if they return to power in the snap election... particularly as there are huge differences on policies between the president and PoR on such key topics as relations with Russia and the Georgia/South Ossetia crisis, NATO, Russian as a second state language etc. And Yulka T. will be hovering to finish off the job too..