Monday, May 07, 2007

Power of the media

Yush has reason to be grateful to Ukrainian investigative journos. By peeping into letter boxes, following leads, and publicizing leaked documents, they revealed Constitutional Court judge Syuzanna Stanik's 76-year old mum had recently become the owner of real estate valued many millions of dollars, raising suspicions that her daughter had been bribed. This media story, and the re-appointment of Svyatoslav Piskun as Prosecutor-General by the president, changed the course of events in the Ukrainian politics these last few days.

The ruling coalition realized that any decision by the CC on the validity of president Yushchenko's ukaz(s) to dismiss the VR was a 'dead duck' Perhaps for the first time in Ukraine, the media has had a decisive impact on day-to-day politics.

But it may be erroneous to declare that Yanukovych and PoR have been forced to cave in to Yushchenko's demands and agree to early elections. Anyone who has followed political events over the years knows how obstinate, devious and calculating all participants of political negotions are. Ukrainian politics is a zero-sum game - nothing is conceded without some kind of pay-off.

PoR know well that after the elections Tymoshenko will demand the PM's chair in any orange coalition cabinet - something that Yushchenko time and again has found to be unacceptable.

Tymoshenko is insisting already that BYuT will not be part any orange election 'mega-bloc'.

And Yanukovych made it clear today that his ideal coalition would be a PoR/NU. The Socialists, and Communists, [for whom such declarations must be painful], and possibly disgruntled PoR deputies who could be pushed off their party election list, could all sabotage the working group's efforts in the VR to arrange the snap election. For PoR in particular, the later the elections are held, the better.

One recent OP has PoR at 30%, BYut at 17%, NU at 9%, Lutsenko's bloc at 3.9%, Commies at 3.7%,

Another has PoR at 35.5%, BYuT 19.6%. NU 12.9%, Commies 4.2%, Lutsenko's bloc 3.7%.This would produce a VR as in the diagram below, i.e. a possible slender 'blue and white' majority comprising PoR 210 seats and Communists 25.

LEvko thinks such numbers could well produce the resonably stable PoR/NU coalition many big businessmen desire, even if, say, a third to a half of NU's projected 77 deputies defect to a BYuT-led opposition. The clincher would be PoR's supporting Yushchenko for president in [possibly] early presidential elections in 2008. But much can happen in-between - and all could even unravel as soon as this week..


Unknown said...

Just to let you know I value your blog highly.

LEvko said...

Thanks for the kind words coen..I try and be as objective as possible.