The Mummy Returns?

Here's some speculation on how things may develop in Ukraine in the following days and weeks. Two possible scenarios are described in an article by Mykola Pysarchuk, which he claims are envisaged by PoR political advisers and strategic planners in documents they have prepared for the PoR leadership.

PoR is run by just a handful of people - their total control over their party was demonstrated when Socialist Moroz was elected VR speaker, receiving every single PoR vote. Mykola Azarov, PoR's official nomination, did not receive one vote, not even his own..

In the peaceful alternative, Yushchenko meekly submits Yanukovych's name to the VR as PM for their approval. A portion of NSNU joins the anti-crisis coalition, gaining a 'few crumbs off the table' in parliamentary commitees and so on. The President loses significant power in the process.

However, the president may dissolve parliament on the 25th July, ostensibly because 60 days have elapsed from the winding up of the previous government, without a new government being appointed. If this were to occur, then a grimmer alternative is predicted .

Thousands of blue supporters would arrive in Kyiv, staging demonstrations of support for Yanukovych and the anti-crisis coalition. Moroz declares in parliament that the presidential ukaz dissolving parliament is unlawful, and that it is an act of treason. Parliament starts proceedings to impeach the Yushchenko. The anti-crisis coalition forms a 'government of national consolidation and stability' headed by Viktor Yanukovych. Once the Constitutional Court is re-activated and its currently depleted seats filled by the 'right people', the events described would naturally receive the Court's approval.

PoR will certainly not wait for months for re-elections to take place and allow their political enemies to regroup, as the oranges did after the March elections.

Pysarchuk claims that the financier deputies in BYuT would rather cut their losses, switch over to the anti-crisis coalition and throw their lot in with PoR, than fund and organize further street actions of protest against the 'anti-crisists'.

Latest opinion polls indicate that most Ukrainian citizens do not really favour dissolution of parliament - more bad news for Yush..

Ukrainians may soon be governed by the likes of Yanukovych and Azarov, who when they were previously in power, systematically abused their positions, continuously using sinister means to neutralize their political opponents, including, astonishingly, their new-found allies the Socialists and Communists.

I gave a brief description last January of the type of guys who now sit in the PoR seats in the VR.

As for Yushchenko, slightly misquoting a song by Boz Scaggs, "You had it in the palm of your hand...and baby you lost it.."

A few thoughts..

So, what happens next?

Yushchenko's predicament reminds me of an old joke about a tourist on a driving holiday in Ireland. Having become hopelessly lost, he stops in a remote village and asks an old local, "Excuse me old fella, how do I get to Ballygilligan?"
The old guy, thinks..and thinks. After a while he replies, "You know what, If I was you...then I wouldn't be starting from here.."

Yushchenko must take the blame for astonishing missteps after the March parliamentary elections. The truth is though, the election results for the Oranges didn't pan out as well as they had hoped, so their position was always weak - an highly vulnerable overall majority of only 17, in a 450 seat parliament, where bribery and corruption is endemic. NSNU in particular, with only 14% of the vote took a beating.

This perhaps explains why NSNU began double-dealing from the start - and have fallen between two stools. Maybe Moroz is correct: the position Ukrainian politics finds itself in now, would have probably come to pass anyhow, after just a few months of an NSNU/BYuT/Socialist coalition.

Who know? Maybe Moroz himself was given assurances by PoR regarding allocation of ministerial positions for possible NSNU defectors, in order to make it easier for him to go over and join the 'anti-crisisists'. He probably hoped that his switching from democratic coalition to anti-crisis coalition would improve matters, that a grand coalition would be quickly formed, and that his betrayal of his orange partners quickly forgotten.

If the country does spin out of control, he will be aware that his actions may have caused this to happen..Will he now be having second thoughts or regrets?

PoR know their anti-crisis coalition is not particularly stable either, so despite all of the confident talk, they will be desperately trying to poach as many NSNU and BYuT deputies, hence the rumors of $5M and $10M inducements mentioned in my previous blog. Messy protracted battles with the President in the weeks to come will not suit them either. Maybe early re-elections would suit them best too? Former president Leonid Kuchma, once called a red cockroach by Yuliya T, has crawled out from under his stone and said as much.

Prominent Socialist and Minister of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko, tore up his Socialist party card yesterday, so there's some turmoil there too, as well as in NSNU. Even the Communists are worried that NSNU will join PoR in the new coalition, and that they will be dumped. You just can't trust anybody these days..

Maybe the President will come up with something in his regular Saturday radio address..

Some comments

I have been at a loss for anything to say about the events of the past week. What has happened is simply stunning. Here are some comments though:

--How incompetent is the leadership of Our Ukraine? What did they think Moroz would do if they courted PR? Did they really think he was going to stand still and not make his own deal when it looked like Our Ukraine was looking out for its interests alone by negotiating with PR? Moroz has to answer for his actions and if there is an election, from some of the things I have heard around from people, the goodwill he and the Socialists have had with Ukrainians may be at an end. He might find himself out of a job if it were put up to a vote today. But that said, the Our Ukraine leadership must have thought that they were free to do anything they liked, to push anyone they liked, and to court anyone they liked without any consequences. Looks like we’ll have to count them part of that Ukrainian elite for whom there have never been any consequences because of power or money or both. How else to explain it?

--Yulia is Yulia. She is pretty effective in opposition. But she and the rest of the coalition sat in the VR and watched what happened on Friday unfold without the slightest protest. To have done it then would have reinforced the idea that what was happening was illegal. Now the protests make it look as if they just don’t like the result. That's what comes over from what’s going on in the Rada. All the noise and storming of the rostrum look like attempts to stop the proper functioning of government. And this by so-called guardians of democracy. If they had stood up and protested at the time, they could have made their case that it was extra-legal, unconstitutional, immoral, not cricket, whatever. Now it looks like they are just crummy losers and undemocratic at that.

This is not very good strategy, I’m afraid. But Our Ukraine has shown itself to be very poor in that department. The better strategists—you have to hand it to them-- are in PR. Since they were so poor at it before, maybe they have bought better?

--There are tents cities going up from PORA and others but PR has them too. If there’s a
call for protests now, what will it be for? Corruption? After the allegations that accompanied the dismissal of Poroshenko and Tymoshenko? People think that Our Ukraine is as corrupt as PR. And making Poroshenko the poster boy for Our Ukraine puts the problem front and center. People don't like him. They think he’s corrupt. That he is a powerful figure in Our Ukraine just taints the whole party.

So what we would be left with is a call for protests over what amounts to political differences. "Come out and protest their forming a different coalition!" To paraphrase a quote from a movie, that’s a helluva a concept to have men die for. It just ain’t gonna work.

--How is this playing in the east? Think of it for a minute. Your elected representatives put together a coalition to govern when Our Ukraine and BYuT couldn’t. And when they start to govern, Our Ukraine and BYuT won’t let them. From their point of view it looks like democracy is about getting the right result, and, if you are in the east, anything you want is going to be the wrong result. How is that any different from what has happened in the past here? And is that going to make them willing to participate in elections and in democratic processes? I don’t think so.

Not all the people who voted for PR are criminals and corrupt, not nearly. And it was to the people who aren’t that Yuschenko and Our Ukraine should have been appealing all along. But they haven’t and that is a spectacular failure.

Tymoshenko, to her credit, has tried harder at this but there hasn’t been the wholesale courting of the east that there should have been.

--The truncheons have come out again. A reporter was beaten by a group of four men including a Rada deputy from PR at the PR tent city. The deputy in question, Oleg Kalashnikov is the name I have, said he was provoked. [Correction: He's the spokesman for PR and wasn't involved. But they still maintain he, whoever it was, was provoked. "But we're sorry."] [Correction correction: Looks like I was right the first time. It was Oleg Kalashnikov. I'll stop now.] Here's hwo it must have gone: The reporter held up this thing that looked like a shoulder fired missile launcher—the reporter said it was a camera but you never know about these things—and the deputy feared for his life. So he and his buddies, who were simply minding their own business, subdued the assailant and took the launcher-that-looked-like-a-camera from him. When they opened it up they found a missile, a rectangular missile about the size and shape, that is, exactly the size and shape of a video tape. With video tape in it. Since you never know, they had to destroy it to prevent any harm to the rest of the tent community. This is what any good public servant would do, no? A few well placed temniki would make this version stick.

Anyway, this was what came out second. A complete denial was what came out first. Finally, later in the day, Kushnarov, the great statesman from PR, came out and said that they were sorry for what happened. They would, of course, return the tape but it had been destroyed—the danger thing I guess.

This is the sort of thing that happened before. One of the results of the Orange Revolution is a free press. That is endangered now by the thugs and criminals that PR has brought in its wake. If that goes, there’s really nothing left but corruption, status, power, and a willingness to use it against anyone who gets in the way. Exactly like it used to be. I can’t say how sad this makes me.

--Where’s Yuschenko? I have been a supporter of Yuschenko and still am, at least for now. But that has not stopped us here from detailing the failings of his administration. And they are there for all to see. All of what happened this past week has come about not only because of the failings of the past few months but because of the failings of the past year and some of the Yuschenko administration.

I'm not so sure that he is the head of Our Ukraine anymore. Their party lost and in any other country that would result in a no confidence vote for the party leader. Maybe that has happened and Our Ukraine now has a de facto other head?

Some of his waffling on the issues I think comes because he is trying to be non-partisan, to keep the presidency above the fray. That would make him the anti-Kuchma and maybe that’s it. The problem with it is that it isn't helping. The real problem around here now is that the system is breaking down and it could lead to people taking to the streets, this time without the higher sensibilities of the Orange Revolution. Someone’s going to have to steady things and people are looking to Yuschenko to do it. But he’s not looking steady.

Other people have a different view of Yuschenko. That’s fine. Either way, he’s been the reason for the problems. Now he’s going to have to deal with it.

--The courts. The courts could provide some stability in this situation but they are not credible. They could have been but there hasn’t been the kind of reform there that has been needed. So there’s no confidence in them. And now that Tymoshenko wants to pursue remedies in the courts, it would be a good time for them to have credibility. But they don’t.

Problem is that no institution in Ukrainian society has any credibility, not the presidency, not the Rada, not the courts. And this is a catastrophe. More work that should have been done but wasn’t.

Oranges and blues 'digging in', constructing d.o.t.s*

Yesterday's talks between NSNU, PoR, and the President were fruitless, and president Yushchenko refused to validate either Moroz as speaker, or the anti-crisis coalition.

NSNU are demanding exclusion of the Communists from any broad coalition, and nomination of a representative of the Our Ukraine bloc as the coalition's candidate for the post of prime minister.

Experts are predicting events may develop in three different ways.

There is only a slight chance that a broad coalition with NSNU's participation could be formed, i.e. if the above-mentioned conditions are met by PoR. The Communists are getting nervous about this though - their leader Petro Symonenko, on returning from Moscow today said that he would not work with the 'anti-crisis-ites' if NSNU also joined this coalition; but Yanukovych quickly assured them there are no plans to dump them. [The support of the Communists last week possibly cost a lot of 'brown envelope' money, so PoR want to 'get their money's worth']

Another possibility is that BYuT go in opposition together with loyal NSNU deputies, against the 'anti-crisis' coalition. There are snags here because the President has several levers to pull to prevent the VR and ministers working. E.g. there is a deadline before which the cabinet must be formed, but as the President himself appoints the ministers of defense and foreign affairs, can a cabinet be considered complete without these two important ministers being in place?

The president has the right to veto laws passed by the VR, which can only be overcome by 2/3 of deputies' votes, i.e. 301 votes. The president can redirect decisions made by the VR to the constitutional court, which is not functioning at the moment. Hindering the work of the VR could cause a reshuffle after just a few weeks amongst the ranks of the 'anti-crisisists'.

A final, quite realistic possibility is the dissolution of parliament by the President, which has to form a government by 25th July, or face dissolution, according to the constitution.

Yanukovych reiterated a statement made by one of PoR's 'top bananas,' Yevhen Kushnaryov: If the president does not submit the VR's chosen candidate for PM for their approval, then the anti-coalitionists will confirm this candidate for PM themselves. In other words, Yanukovych will 'self-coronate' himself as PM.

And Yuliya T, in an emotional impromptu press conference said that BYuT are going into opposition, and are demanding early parliamentary re-elections. She alleged that some of her deputies are being offered bribes of between $5 and $10 million, for their votes by the 'anti-crisisists' - serious money by any standards. She looked quite tired and stressed out, as do the other leading players. But she's a 'class act' on TV.

Yanukovych, in contrast, is embarrassingly clumsy and oafish - always rolling his eyes and looking for words - very uncomfortable in front of cameras. It's looking like stalemate until the 25th.. but you never know..

*d.o.t. - dolgovremyennaya ognyevaya tochka - a permanent military defensive position or structure.

Nobody trusts nobody no more

The deputy head of President Yushchenko's secretariat, Ivan Vasyunyk, claims the President is angry because "the latest decisions taken in the VR by deputies took place under duress and were influenced by bribes".

Yushchenko apparently, has appealed to all political forces in parliament to give up such methods, "because this is the road to the devaluation of democracy and the continuation of corruption in parliament."

When Vasyunyk was asked on what basis his assertion was made, he replied, "There is a lot of information. This information should either be checked out, or handed over to court authorities," adding, that the press had written a lot about this. "In the format of various coalitions, the first, and the second, there have been serious unconfirmed rumors circulating."

When a journalist commented that this declaration sounded quite categoric, Vasynuyk replied, "I said this as a warning."

In any decent democracy, such grave accusations would be thoroughly investigated and followed up by law enforcement agencies. We are talking about how newly-elected parliamentary deputies, preparing to run Ukraine for the next 5 years, are being accused by the President of taking bribes to switch from one coalition to another. In Ukraine this warrants just a little warning from the Pres - a tap on the knuckles - nothing out of the ordinary..

What happens next? Well.... lots of talking.
PoR and Our Ukraine commenced discussions in Presidential Secretariat today. The usual creeps were there: Raisa Bohatyrova, Volodymyr Rybak, Andriy Kliuyev [from PoR], new Socialist boss Vasyl Tsushko, and 'our old friends' Roman Zvarych, Mykola Martynenko, Borys Tarasyuk, and Anatoliy Kinakh from NSNU. Yuriy Yekhanurov joined the talks later.

PoR are now in the driving seat. And NSNU have two options - each of which will probably cause splits their party. On Monday their party council formally decided to prepare for early re-elections, and yet their leaders are acting as if entry into the anti-crisis coalition is on the cards too.

NSNU's people, in the talks going on at the moment, have always been keen on a 'wider' coalition, and now, after Moroz's betrayal, probably a 'mini' coalition of just PoR and NSNU. Assuming, say, 20 of NSNU's 81 deputies would rather go into opposition, this would give PoR-NSNU coalition a not impregnable 241 votes in a 450-seat VR. PoR would probably be happier with this arrangement too, rather than depending on the Communists as now; but NSNU will demand their man Yekhanurov be PM, and Yanukovych be appointed speaker - a big 'ask', requiring a hell of a climb-down now for PoR, after last week's victory.

The alternative for NSNU is to go into opposition with BYuT against a rather unstable anti-crisis coalition of PoR-Socialists-Communists. PoR could probably 'entice' some defections from NSNU and BYuT- they optimistically claim over 40.

Yuliya T has accused 'Nasha Ukraina' of betrayal, and is urging the President to dissolve parliament and call fresh elections. "NU has sat around a negotiationg table with Communists, Socialist who betrayed us, and with Viktor Yanukovych and his mafia who we pulled out of their offices by their arms during the Orange Revolution." BYuT are running out of partners...
The truth is, just as with the mafias, 'nobody trusts nobody no more'.

Photo of Raisa Bohatyrova, and Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest oligarch, and 'the money' behind PoR. [From Ukr.Pravda]

The rules are..there are no rules..

Amid the turmoil of the VR morning session today, 233 anti-crisis coalition deputies voted to propose Viktor Yanukovych for PM.

The anti-crisis coalition at the moment comprises 186 PoR parliamentary deputies, 33 Socialists, and 21 Communists, providing them a small overall majority of only 14. This gives the Communists and Socialists great leverage for financial gain.

Assuming there were no turncoats from BYuT or NSNU, 7 of the anti-crisis coalition apparently, did not vote. How one of the procedural votes during the day was achieved is a mystery, because at the time of voting, most of their deputies were in the VR corridors and around the speaker's podium. One of their 'big names', Raisa Bohatyrova directed [piano-players] where to run to press the voting buttons. [Against the rules]

Newly-appointed VR speaker Moroz said during the session, "Earlier, [i.e for the last week and a half before last Thursday], [PoR] deputies blocked the podium, because the reglament [rules] were not being adhered to. Now the reglament is being adhered to the letter..."

BYuT and NSNU claim Moroz and the Socialists 'broke the rules' on formation of coalitions, by dumping on the orange coalition last Thursday, and joining the anti-crisis coalition without giving them 10 days notice, as required, during which time they. theoretically, they could look for other partners.

Abdymok's reports of today's events have put professionally run Ukrainian language sites to shame [Where are you guys?] It looks as if the afternoon session was pretty ugly too.

The capos of PoR, Yanukovych, Kolesnikov, Akhmetov in their smart suits, bouffant hair, and massaged and burnished faces are not used to this messy way of doing business.

They may try resolve these matters in a Donetsk manner. However Kyiv is a long way away from Donetsk.

If they did, this would also suit the 'street-fighters' amonst the oranges, possibly giving Yushchenko a reason to dissolve the VR, and call for fresh elections. The sponsors of all the main parties put big money up front for the March 2006 elections; those from PoR will feel robbed, and who knows what the consequences could be. Yushchenko's own NSNU party could be 'wiped out' in any re-election.

Leaders of the anti-crisis coalition are already accusing the new opposition of leading the country to chaos, which, they claim, could result in civil conflict.

According to Moroz, Yushchenko himself still wants a broad coalition [probably has from the start.] So this may avert nastier scenarios from being realized, but both sides of the conflict know there is a lot at stake, and are 'digging in'.

It is still not clear how many more NSNU and BYuT deputies are prepared to join the anti-crisis coalition, apart from two that have apparently done so - PoR say it could be 40 or more. The treatment Moroz is getting now, and the rowdiness in the VR is probably dissuading some of them from 'flipping over', so they are waiting to see 'kudy viter viye' [which way the wind is blowing]. The actual number will influence how events develop in the weeks to come.

p.s. During the Orange Revolution, President Kuchma 'phoned Putin for advice on what to do when matters became heated. Putin replied, "In general..presidents introduce a state of emergency, or there is a second possibility - you have an elected president [Yanukovych] - you could transfer power."

At that moment, Kuchma made a fantastic statement, "Well how on earth can I hand over power Vladimir Vladimirovich? He's just a Donetsk bandit."
[From Andrew Wilson's 'Ukraine's Orange Revolution'.]

Double dealing opportunists in the VR..

At a press conference today Oleksandr Moroz, the new VR speaker who 'betrayed' his orange colleagues last Thursday, gave a brief and candid explanation why he chose to 'rat' on them.

He reminded journalists that a memorandum had been prepared, between NSNU, BYuT & Socialists, even before the 26th March elections. Once the votes were counted and NSNU realized, to their horror, that they were in third place, well behind their orange BYuT partners, they officially revoked the memorandum.

After difficult discussions lasting several weeks, it was agreed that as NSNU was represented in the orange coalition by the President, and Tymoshenko was claiming the PM's chair, then the Socialists would claim the top position in the VR.

NSNU delayed, putting forward ideas that the coalition needed to be created in a 'broader' format, and started negotiating with Yanukovych's PoR about the creation of this broad coalition, which was to include PoR. Their plans almost came to fruition, but thanks to the determined efforts of a few people from BYuT, a decision was made, nevertheless, to go with the democratic coalition of the three orange parties.

Lots of top NSNU people had demanded a grand coalition from the very beginning. The controversial figure of Petro Poroshenko was nominated for VR speaker by NSNU purely with the aim of causing splits, or to get Tymoshenko to withdraw her claim for the PM's position - Moroz claims he spoke about this frequently with Yekhanurov and Bezsmertnyi.

His impression was that NSNU envisaged an orange coalition that was to exist for a few months only, then it was to be brought down, and a new, broad coalition with election victors PoR constructed in its place. Everyone knew that the candidature of Petro Poroshenko was unrealistic.

So it seems then, according to Moroz, he and the Socialists merely 'switched horses' and teamed up with PoR, before NSNU had the chance to do so. Had he delayed, he could have found himself 'cut-out' of any deals further down the line, and in the opposition wilderness alongside Tymoshenko and BYuT.

Nothing to do with ideology, political aims, keeping one's word, or morality then..

Tomorrow all of the boys and girls are back in the VR. We will see who still has the stomach for a fight. Will BYuT stage a sit-in, just as PoR had done in the days before last Thursday? How many NSNU people will join them? How many BYuT'ivtsi will stay loyal? Could possibly get nasty..Moroz will be the main target for abuse..

NSNU's council have just decided to strive for early re-elections too, something BYuT had already declared was their aim. When their representative was asked if NSNU would go with one election list together with BYuT, he replied this would depend on the results of negotiations with BYuT. Considering the calamity their dithering has caused over the last three months, they have some nerve..

Meanwhile Kinakh and Yekhanurov from NSNU have been conducting talks with Moroz and PoR leaders. A Socialist spokesman said, 'They came to give themselves up as 'prisoners of war'. And PoR are saying they have almost 300 deputies' votes 'in the bag'.

Now BYuT claim Yushchenko may be inclined to dissolve parliament..

So, it's not all over yet for the oranges..

Voices from the past..

Today Yanukovych was asked by a TV journalist if it was true that PoR had bribed the Socialist deputies with $83M to dump their orange coalition colleagues, and join PoR and the Communists in a new coalition.

He gave a long, rather strange and meaningless reply. "I'll put it this way - those who have done nothing worthwhile in their life, apart from this dirt which is poured on the body of the country, have no future. Evil, provides nothing, apart from [further] evil, and does nothing for people."

When asked to clarify his remark - whether this meant that PoR had not paid any bribes, he repeated the same phrases.

Maybe secret recordings made 1999 and 2000 in the then President Kuchma's office flashed through his mind. Yanukovych is clearly heard* reporting, in a matter-of-fact manner, how political opponents [including Oleksandr Moroz's Socialist and Petro Symonenko's Communist deputies] are being bribed.

In other recordings former President Kuchma and Mykola Azarov, who was head of the Tax inspectorate at the time, discuss pressurizing collective farm heads in the areas where support for Moroz was strongest, in order to reduce his votes in the 1999 Presidential elections.

It is the same Moroz and Symonenko who have now joined forces with Yanukovych in the new parliamentary coalition. And it was Moroz that brought the recordings into the public domain.

Azarov will probably get one of the top ministerial positions in any Yanukovych cabinet.

What leaders, what a country..

*Details in Andrew Wilson's excellent 'Ukraine's Orange Revolution', [Yale University Press], and elsewhere.

BYuT proposes means of resolving of crisis?

Loads of speculation about 'where do we go from here?'

A story I like: PoR leading light Evhen Kushnaryov reveals BYuT have challenged PoR to dissolve parliament and stage a parliamentary election duel, by raising the barrier for entry to the VR to 10%. This would probably mean it would be a straight 'shoot-out' between PoR and BYuT.

I say: 'Go for it Yanukovych!'

"The old gunfighter on the porch..
Stared into the sun.. and relived the days..
Of living by the gun,
When deadly games of pride were played,
And living was mistakes not made..

Ah, the smell of the black powder smoke,
And the stand in the street at the turn of a joke...

It's always keep your back to the sun,
And he can almost feel the weight of the gun,
It's faster than snakes or the blink of an eye,
And it's a time for all slow men to die,
And his eyes get squinty and his fingers twitch,
And he empties the gun at the son of a bitch..

And he's hit by the smell of the black powder smoke,
and the stand in the street at the turn of a joke...

[Guy Clark: 'Ballad of the last gunfighter..']

So easy for PoR..

So the dust has settled after yesterday's momentous events in the VR. Observers who glibly assumed the oranges were back on track got it badly wrong, maybe forgetting how devious the old riders on the Ukrainian political merry-go-round over the last ten or even fifteen years have been over that period, and how politically inept Yushchenko has repeatedly shown himself to be.

It took the oranges 100 days to get their act together, even though some of them are 'almost family', confirming there was virtually no chance of the structure holding together. So it proved. Yushchenko, who on many occasions after the March VR elections, couldn't even bring himself to utter the name of Tymoshenko to journalists, must be held primarily responsible for the debacle.

Yushchenko disastrously sacked both Tymoshenko and Poroshenko last August because of their constant squabbling. Expecting them to work together again after all of their mutual recriminations, as I wrote previously, was totally bizarre.

PoR were never interested in being in opposition. Their unofficial leader Akmetov, and his associates did not get to where they are today by making compromises, but by ruthless cunning, and exploitating opponents' weaknesses to the max. by every possible means. For them it has all been too easy.They will now drive home their victory - they want Yanukovych as PM.

In any coalition, the lesser partners inevitably have a disproportionate amount of power, but are easiest to exploit, and this is true of the Socialists. Moroz was inevitably going to be the king-maker.

Yushchenko has made blunder after blunder. If he really didn't fancy working with BYuT, then until recently PoR would have grudgingly formed a coalition with Yushchenko's NSNU and the Socialists, with Yekhanurov as PM, and a disproportionately large number of NSNU ministers in the cabinet. But PoR, after yesterday's success, will now not be in any mood for that sort of thing. [A PoR-NSNU-Socialist coalition may have made some sense, unifying the country and so on, and would have offered stability.]

The newly-formed PoR-Socialist-Communist coalition still only provides 240 votes, out of 450, and is vulnerable to attack. Its constituents are strange bedfellows indeed, PoR being densely populated by 'big roller' businessmen. They could all fall out with one another very quickly unless the two small leftist partners are not continuously 'financially' encouraged to behave themselves.

Last summer the oranges were in total command - PoR were in disarray. Now, [if PoR are not too hubristic], all they will offer NSNU is a few crumbs to tempt some of them over to stabilize the newly-formed PoR-dominated coalition.

Orange house of cards collapses..

Turbulent events are taking place in the VR today, even as I write. First PoR boss Yanukovych, in a rather 'wobbly' pronouncement, nervously declared the blockade to be over, so the work of parliament could resume.

Shortly after, a large number of Socialists, the smallest party of the orange triumvirate, said they wouldn't vote for the controversial Petro Poroshenko, the oranges' previously agreed candidate for VR speaker.

Then Yosyp Vinskyi, first secretary of the Socialist polit-rada, resigned his party position, accusing the majority of his party of trying to form a coalition with PoR, so betraying their orange partners. He accused President Yushchenko of being primarily responsible for the current mess because he stalled and dragged out the formation of the orange coalition after the 26th March elections. He also called the Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz a traitor, and accused the turn-coats in his party of taking bribes: "..Although I do not have facts..nor documents, you will soon see who will be driving which automobiles, and who is living in what kind of apartment," he said.

Poroshenko [always a crazy choice for VR speaker because he is deeply unpopular with the electorate] sensationally then removed his candidature, and Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz, and the odious Mykola Azarov from PoR, threw 'their hats into the ring'.

Everyone is, no doubt, going round making up lists of names, but it seems that PoR, the Communists, and the Socialist traitors do not have, as yet, sufficient deputies on their list to get their man Azarov elected for VR speaker.

There are rumors that PoR are prepared to support Moroz for speaker, if, in exchange he invites Yushchenko to nominate Azarov for PM.

One small snag - Azarov cannot [will not?] speak in Ukrainian when addressing the VR. Today he was heckled and whistled when he attempted to address the VR in Russian.
Although it is normal practice for some deputies to address the assembled VR in Russian - something that happens very frequently with no problems, clearly, for a prospective speaker, this is not acceptable to many deputies.

Neither BYuT nor NSNU will participate in tonight's vote for speaker, according to their spokesmen..

Tymoshenko for PM is looking a long way away..

Update: Moroz has been elected VR speaker by 238 votes to 0. Looks like the PoR - Socialist - Communist vote was very solid.

So it seems the day the VR was 'unblocked', was the day the backroom PoR-Socialist deal was done. What are the chances the Socialists now vote 'Tymoshenko for PM', and go against their new pals?

Crash dieting in VR?

PoR are continuing their parliamentary sit-in, after the failure of the latest round-table, [or should it be merry-go-round?] talks, and have threatened to stage a hunger strike starting next week.

Apparently 20 of their deputies have already volunteered and put their name on the list, but PoR polit-rada member Yevhen Kushnaryov emphasized, "If necessary, all 188 [deputies] will starve themselves."

Many of these guys are multi-millionaires who conceal their substantial girths behind well-tailored trousers. Their chauffeured limos are regularly seen outside the best restaurants and nightclubs in Donetsk and Kyiv, so I imagine most citizens on hearing this news, will have a wry chuckle to themselves.

[There could possibly be a significant business opportunity here - selling bubliki and pyrozhki at the back door of the VR building.]

Even though some talks are scheduled for tomorrow on distribution of parliamentary committee seats, the coalition and opposition have suspended indefinitely any further meetings with the president.

A clear struggle for power is taking place. PoR are not interested in behaving as a constructive opposition, and are attempting to bring down the orange house-of-cards, particularly by singling out Tymoshenko for her intransigence.

Who will win this struggle will be revealed, not when some deal is announced from behind a bunch of microphones, but when parliamentary voting takes place, and the result flashed up on the board in the VR.

Empty chairs at the round table

Yanukovych didn't show up today to the round table show-down with the President and the 'oranges' - PoR then added further demands to their 'ultimatum'. Maybe an indication of division in their ranks?

However PoR have agreed to conduct a dialogue tomorrow, in the framework of the parliamentary co-ordination council. President Yushchenko has promised to attend.

Mykola Tomenko [one of BYuT's 'three T's'] thinks that PoR are stalling because they are trying to 'recruit or buy-off' 226 deputies' votes, in order to get Yanukovych elected parliamentary speaker. Bribing deputies though, is no guarantee of success, particularly as PoR are also demanding a secret vote. [How can you be sure the recipient has carried out his or her part of the bargain? You can't trust anyone, these days.] And for all of the talk, there never seems to be any hard evidence of underhand dealing.

Some analysts have dragged Russia into all of this, suggesting, "PoR changed its position overnight, and also presented a new ultimatum with 12 points - this is evidence that 'Regiony' have not got rid of external influences. They are now the executors of a destabilization scenario in Ukraine, which primarily, suits Russia."

Russian embassador in Ukraine, Viktor Chernomyrdin called this 'silly'.

Will everyone turn up round the table tomorrow? Many are all 'old friends, after all.

Pals again tomorrow?

Yanukovych made some conciliatory noises yesterday, in reply to Yushchenko's and the orange parties' offer to stage round table talks on Monday, in order to resolve the dispute in the VR.

PR have been staging a sit-in there for the last week, preventing parliament from operating.

Its getting close to the summer holidays. Everyone is thinking of getting away, so PR's call for mass actions of civil disobedience was probably a miscalculation, and a bluff that could be easily called. PR supporters will not thank their party for dragging them out into the streets in the middle of hot summer. People would rather be 'under a pear tree' at their dachas, or villages.

All the big-shot politico's are looking forward to getting out of the city, and jetting off to the sun, or to their expensive dachas or yachts on the Black sea, so maybe there will be a whiff of compromise [or capitulation?] in the air from NSNU and the President- they want matters resolved quickly.

At first sight, the oranges, who have now registered their coalition, should sit tight, make PR sweat, and give away nothing - at least for a few weeks, because there is 30 days to sort this out. But because a number of deputies in their ranks are not reliable, they are looking weak. Add to the mix the great animosity between Tymoshenko, who the coalition are proposing for PM, and Petro Poroshenko, who is being proposed for VR speaker - it looks as if 'this airplane may not fly'. The Tymoshenko - Poroshenko combination in particular, after last September's crisis, looks bizarre - a recipe for disaster. In the words of the poet, "Heaven has no rage like love to hatred turned.. Nor hell a fury like a woman scorned."

Maybe tomorrow, at the round table, the pressure will really be on BYuT and the Socialists to back a grand coalition, or go into opposition..

One of the PR's leading lights, Vasyl Dzharty was interviewed in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya'. He denies the rumor that PR's 'banker', Rinat Akhmetov, would support Yushchenko for President in 2009, if Yushchenko's NSNU go into coalition with PR..

Yushchenko, in his Saturday radio address says he does not have any intention of dissolving parliament. If he did, his party NSNU, would be 'wiped out' in any fresh elections.

Law-abiding PR?

PR leader Viktor Yanukovych, in an address 'to the Ukrainian nation' today declared, .."the so-called orange coalition is striving to seize power by any means, ignoring state laws and will of the people...we will block the work of the Ukrainian parliament until the oranges agree to live and act according to the law and state constitution. I know you will stand shoulder to shoulder with us, [and] when necessary will support our deeds with actions of national insubordination."

'Pora' are taking this 'preparation for mass provocations' seriously. PR's desire to support the rule of law is touching, but out of character, Yanukovych himself spend 3 1/2 years in prison for violent crimes, in his youth.

PR include many 'shady customers' amongst their deputies, including Serhiy Kivalov, who was Central Electoral Commission chief during the 2004 Presidential elections. They had some trouble adding up the numbers at that time. [Just an excuse to post this photo.]

In the March 2006 elections PR received 32.12% of the vote, even though many of its leaders and spokesmen now glibly speak of representing 'half of Ukraine'.

In fact many of the demands PR are making do not have sound validity, but are based on ambiguities in the VR rules.

I suspect the orange coalition members are not too bothered by PR's parliamentary sit-in because it deflects attention from splits and disagreements within their own ranks. For a change, it is PR that are stalling work in the VR, and it now gives the oranges time to try and get their own 'ducks in a row' again.


Some reports claim that there could be up to several dozen orange deputies whose vote, [for whatever reason..bribes, blackmail..] is not reliable - they could well vote against their respective parties official line, especially in any secret voting. If this is the case, then it is very bad news indeed for the oranges, who at best can only muster a majority of 17 in the VR after the March elections.

But if PR's campaign of disruption produces some kind of 'grand coalition', I guess everyone [including Tymoshenko as in this photograph from 'Ukr Pravda'] will be counting names on lists, deciding who is dependable and who is not, and wondering who can be persuaded to defect.

Toys being thrown in the nursery again..

The Orange coalitionists have confirmed that they will propose Yuliya Tymoshenko for PM, and Petro Poroshenko for parliamentary [VR] speaker. They have decided that voting will take place 'in a packet', i.e. the two positions to be voted for, openly and simultaneously.

Because there are dissenters who could 'go wobbly', particularly amongst the Socialist ranks, an open 'packet' vote is the most likely method of providing sucess. There are serious doubts, however, whether the 'packet vote' is constitutional, even though it has been used in the past. By coincidence today is a national holiday - Constitution Day.

The new VR comprises Party of Regions 186, Communists 21, Socialists 33, BYuT 129, NSNU 81; the Orange majority of 17 was always going to be vulnerable to attack by means fair and foul.

Voting is supposed to be taking place tomorrow, but PR have been staging a 'sit-in' for the last two days, preventing the VR from functioning. They threaten to remain there until the VR is dissolved, and are demanding that the two posts are voted for separately by means of a secret vote. [So increasing the chances of bribed or otherwise 'nobbled*' orange deputies pressing the 'correct' button? For what other purpose would democratically elected representatives demand a secret vote?]

PR are demanding their man Viktor Yanukovych, hardly the most quick-witted or articulate of men, be proposed for the VR speaker's job even though he has been very shy in the VR in recent weeks - other members of his party have been addressing the VR on behalf of his party. He would however, bring to the position, a useful pair of fists.

Leading 'BYuT'ivets', Mykola Tomenko, says a slush fund of $250Million has been set up to ensure Yanukovych is elected VR speaker.

Stories are circulating that 17 Socialists will not vote for Tymoshenko for PM, and 2 don't fancy Poroshenko as VR speaker. Those in the ranks of NSNU who wanted a 'grand coalition from the start could probably be easily be bought off, and, no doubt some in BYuT would even vote for a 'glove puppet' rather than Poroshenko for speaker.

On a lesser note, Tymoshenko has accused PR of turning the VR into a rubbish dump. "Rubbish, bottles, cans, cigarette butts, discarded all over the VR. They should maintain an appropriate level of 'kultura,'" she complained. An hour later PR 'leaderine' Raisa Bohatyrova invited journalists into the VR to demonstrate that Tymoshenko's accusations were groundless, [maybe having gone round with a brush, a mop, and bucket..]

All in all, another fine mess..

*nobble - to drug or otherwise disable an opponent's racehorse before a race. Engish slang]

Singing from the same hymn-sheet..

President Viktor Yushchenko and the three pro-Western Orange parties that will form the new government in Ukraine are all supporting the re-negotiation of natural gas agreements with Russia, according to Oleh Rybachuk, Yushchenko's chief of staff. He said Yulia Tymoshenko, who will most-likely become prime minister, will have to move quickly on the re-negotiations.

Now today Anatoliy Kinakh, a former PM, former National Security and Defense chief, and currently one of the prime contenders for Parliamentary speaker, is also supporting Tymoshenko's demands to review Russian-Ukrainian gas agreements. He considers the 4th January deal to be imperfect, because it was made 'practically under 'force-majeure' conditions.

He said, "[We need to] enter a concrete negotiation process both in the Kyiv-Moscow-Ashkabad triangle, include the EU..[and] move to transparent relations with the Russian Federation."

When asked, "If Russia does not agree, what then?" He said, "We need to strive to gain access to the resource of central Asian natural gas." Kinakh has frequently been critical of Tymoshenko in the past, but not now, on this matter.

Fuel-Energy Minister of Ukraine Ivan Plachkov intents to leave for Ashkabat on June 27 to conduct talks on restoring the direct supplies of Turkmen gas, now that now President Niyazov has put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Today's Russian edition of "Newsweek" includes an interview with Tymoshenko. Quote: " I'm convinced: the three countries [Ukraine, Russia, Turkmenistan] and their state organizations [Naftogaz, Gazprom, Turkmennaftegaz] should conclude their deal directly. Without any interpreters, shadowy or half-shadowy intermediaries."

Some background to all of this here.

A quote: ..a hastily fashioned agreement between Russia and Ukraine on 4 January revealed the growing importance of Central Asian gas to Russia. Subsequent talks between top-level Russian negotiators, including President Vladimir Putin, and the leaders of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan drove the point home -- Central Asia's gas reserves are now poised to play a decisive role not only in the region's relations with Russia, but in Eurasian geopolitics as well.

Russia's rising appetite for Central Asian gas is a direct result of the shifting fortunes of Gazprom, the state-run Russian company that controls lucrative exports. The company's total gas production has flatlined at around 550 billion cubic meters (bcm) a year. With major fields yielding less as they age, Gazprom has chosen to maintain its all-important gas balance by purchasing gas on the side -- from independent producers in Russia and from Russia's Central Asian neighbors -- instead of investing in the lengthy and costly development of untapped Arctic fields, former Deputy Energy Minister Vladimir Milov explained in a 26 December article in "Novaya gazeta."

Maintaining the gas balance is crucial because Gazprom needs to keep up both domestic shipments, which serve to preserve social stability and subsidize the Russian economy, and exports, which produce profits. Faced with declining yields at home and rising demand across the board, Gazprom is looking south to make up the difference

Gas on the front burner again..

It looks as if the Orange coalition is back in business. Even though Yuliya Tymoshenko has not formally been appointed PM, she has immediately commented on the most important matter in hand - gas.

"Kyiv, June 22 (Interfax-Ukraine) - BYuT Leader Yulia Tymoshenko will insist on the revision of all agreements on gas supplies to Ukraine if she becomes premier. "All issues relating to supplies of natural gas to Ukraine require a more thorough revision and correction today, and certainly, all new contracts with Russia and Turkmenistan need to be built on a friendly basis," Tymoshenko told journalists on Thursday in reply to a question from Interfax-Ukraine."

Addressing parliament Tuesday, she warned that for the first time, the vast gas reservoirs located on Ukrainian territory are empty, and the current chaos in the gas sphere could lead to the collapse of the country.

Tymoshenko is deeply hostile to the complex deal reached with Russia whereby Ukraine purchases large quantities of vital Russian and Turkmen gas. The deal involves opaque intermediary companies which skim-off billions of dollars for the benefit of ruling elites both in Russia and Ukraine, to the detriment of the citizens in both countries.

In 2005 Tymoshenko's 'second-in-command' and Ukraine's security services chief Oleksandr Turchynov, was getting close to uncovering involvement of some of Mr. Yushchenko's associates in massive fraud in the Ukraine's gas procurement. These frauds originated from the days of President Kuchma and were not dealt with when Yushchenko became President, as promised during the Orange election campaign during Autumn 2004. This was a major reason for Yushchenko dismissing Tymoshenko and her government last September.

After the EU/US SUMMIT June 21, in Vienna attended by George Bush, EU Commission President Jose Barroso, Javier Solana et. al. its final declaration included the following:

"Ukraine has made remarkable progress in democratic and economic reforms. Building on the March 2006 elections, we will support Ukraine’s development as a democratic, prosperous and secure country. We will help Ukraine pursue economic reforms, combat corruption and reform the energy sector."

EU observers at Russian/Ukrainian gas negotiations would be useful for all parties, because vital pipelines which pass through Ukraine supply 25% of Europe' total natural gas requirements, and 80% of Russia's gas exports to Europe pass through Ukraine. It would be in Ukraine's interest to 'start the ball rolling' before the G8 summit in July, where the reliability of Russia as a supplier of hydrocarbon fuels will be a dominant topic.

Tymoshenko PM

The print news is reporting that the ice flow has broken up and a new Orange government has been formed. Tymoshenko is Prime Minister and Poroshenko Speaker.

Makes me wonder why the heavy discussions with PR over the weekend. Maybe they got something on the other posts but it looks like Tymoshenko's group caved on nothing. So why the negotiations with PR? Maybe they got something else for the deal, a something else that is never a good thing for the country? Perhaps a new business will now appear in the natural gas constellation, a new business set up to distribute some more swag. I say this with my tongue in cheek, but only half there.

Anyway, at least there's a government. (Maybe I should add, "if the reports are true.)

Refreshed orange?

Well it looks like the Oranges are back in business - but the partners still don't trust one another. Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz says that if the deal is not 'closed' Thursday, all bets are off and his party becomes a free agent again. NSNU's Bezsmertniy wanted to delay until Friday..

And Petro Poroshenko, Tymoshenko's biggest enemy in NSNU, is to be nominated for the VR speaker's job. She accused him may times of sabotaging her work when she was PM - they loathe one another.

Now Anatoliy Kinakh, a former PM whose Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Ukraine forms a portion of NSNU, also wants the speaker's job. Although he has been critical of Tymoshenko in the past, his appointment in the VR would be more acceptable to Tymoshenko. When Tymoshenko was returning to her seat after addressing the VR today, Kinakh gave her the 'thumbs-up' as if to say, 'Good speech, Yulka..' [Photo from 'Ukrainska Pravda']

There is a sober realization by all partners that it's going to be really tough to hold things together, even for a few months. There wasn't really much 'fizz' amongst the orange deputies in the VR today despite the ostensibly successful agreement between its leaders.

Ukrainian roulette?

The realization that a grand parliamentary coalition is now likely has spurred deputies in Western Ukrainian, strongly pro-Yushchenko oblasts and cities to issue statements that they are 'deeply disturbed about the general direction of the country's development' and do not accept 'unnatural political alliances'.

They say that they 'will not allow the trust of the nation, so forcibly demonstrated at the Maidan, to be broken'.

I thought the air of resignation in both Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz's, and Yuliya Tymoshenko's rather sarcastic address to parliament [VR] today gave the impression that they consider 'the game is up' in their talks with NSNU - whatever they agree to, NSNU then keep 'moving the goalposts'. NSNU leaders, many of whom form their business wing, are determined to assemble a 'grand coalition' - NSNU's Roman Bezsmertnyi called it a 'stabilization coalition' today.

According to the rules, the successfully assembled coalition proposes for approval to the president their nomination for PM, and those ministers that are nominated by parliament. At first sight it would appear that any coalition must be formed by fractions who together make up a majority, because as I wrote earlier, 'changing horses' midstream is not permitted. However it seems that there is some 'wriggle room' - if a VR deputy does not leave his faction voluntarily, but is expelled, he still retains his voting mandate on an 'individual basis'. I guess there are party organizers 'phoning around possible defectors, making up lists of deputies, and adding up the numbers right now.

If a ruling coalition is not formed by the 25th June, the president has the power, but is not bound, to call for fresh elections.

A few weeks ago Yushchenko controversially stated that he would refuse to approve the Verkhovna Rada's Prime-Minister nomination until the VR attests the judges of the Constitutional Court. [Just another minor complication maybe everyone's forgotten about.]

Yanukovych has declared that if by tomorrow a parliamentary majority is not formed, his party will initiate a motion to elect a VR speaker and is counting on the votes of 'conscientious politicians' to form an 'anti-crisis' coalition. He says they have enough votes [with defectors from other parties] to do this. Lots more 'fun and games' in prospect..NSNU as a political force could be in deep trouble..

Just as I am finishing writing, this piece below has popped up on 'Ukrainska Pravda':

UKRAINE HAS A NEW PRIME MINISTER , 21.06.2006, 00:06

During the meeting with [President] Viktor Yushchenko, final office sharing issues, which were a stumbling block for the creation of the Orange team, were settled.This information was reported to Ukrayinska Pravda (UP) by an informed source.
This means that the creation of a coalition including BYuT, “Our Ukraine”, and the Socialist party (SPU), would be announced in the Parliament on Wednesday.

The roulette wheel is slowing down. But where will the little ball land - on red or on black? On orange, or on blue?

Less than three years ago...

"On 31st October 2003 the Our Ukraine bloc led by Viktor Yushchenko failed to hold a congress of democratic forces in Donetsk as planned. After arriving in Donetsk that day, Yushchenko and his supporters were confronted by hostile crowds at the airport and in downtown Donetsk in what looked like a highly coordinated effort to prevent the Our Ukraine gathering and to fan anti-Yushchenko sentiment in the city.

The entire city was adorned with billboards showing Yushchenko in a Nazi uniform extending his hand in a Nazi salute and calling for the "purity of the nation." Some 1,500 mainly young and drunk people filled the planned venue and effectively prevented Our Ukraine from holding the congress. Neither the police nor officers of the Security Service did anything to stop them.

According to many Ukrainian publications, including the "Ukrayinska pravda" website and the "Grani" weekly, the plan of "countermeasures" against Yushchenko in Donetsk was coordinated by Donetsk Oblast Council head Borys Kolesnykov, Donetsk Oblast Governor Anatoliy Bliznyuk, and Donetsk Oblast Deputy Governor Vasyl Dzharta. The entire "anti-Yushchenko operation" was also allegedly supported by Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest oligarch, whom many call the "real boss" of Donetsk and the backbone of the Donetsk clan."

Yushchenko and his supporters were 'run out of town' - just like in the wild-west.

A detailed report of what happened which includes the quotes above, is here.

Today Kolesnykov is at #10 on PRU's list of parliamentary deputies, and is also one of PRU's chief negotiators in current NSNU-PRU coalition talks.
Dzharty is #22 on PRU's list of parliamentary deputies.
Akhmetov is at 'lucky' #7 on PRU's list of parliamentary deputies.

Sooner or later, PRU 'on the up'

Presently it is, apparently, 'consulations' on parliamentary {VR} coalition that are taking place between NSNU and PRU. While at the same time, 'negotiations' are proceeding between the leaders of three orange parties BYuT, NSNU, and SPU.

This maybe indicate that an orange coalition is still the more likely. The process has to be 'done and dusted' by 25th June, otherwise the President has the power to dissolve parliament and call for fresh elections. He is, however, unlikely to do this because his own party's ratings, [NSNU] have declined even further since the March elections, and there is a realistic possibility that Yanukovych's PRU could gain an absolute majority in any follow-up elections, some observers claiming NSNU's vote could drop to 5%.

Alternatively, a short-term 'pseudo-coalition' could be formed to temporarily save the President from the humiliation of dissolving the VR.

Or acting PM Yuriy Yekhanurov and his cabinet could continue 'limping on' for some time. But without a functioning parliament, the country would remain in a state of political stasis.

Today SPU leader Oleksandr Moroz issued a strongly worded rebuttal, challenging accusations made by President Yushchenko on Friday when he berated Moroz for demanding the position of VR speaker for himself.

He complains, "Appointments at all levels [of government] over the last year and a half have taken place according to the canons of the previous government, and not according to professional principles. This is evidenced by the woeful state of affairs, e.g. in the oil and gas sphere, and in most sectors of the law-enforcement systems*."

And his statement closes, "I again must sadly note that the 'ideals of the Maidan', which were shown to be close to the Ukrainian nation, have not yet become the leading principle of action for the new authorities. Most people in the government still don't understand that Ukrainians succeeded in gathering together [at the Maidan], in order, in the words of a classic, 'to kill the dragon inside.' If the authorities do not come to their senses, the citizens will not suffer quietly for another 10 years." Much undisguised bitterness in the orange camp then, with little sign of rapprochement.

Even at this late stage, it's 50:50 as to which coalition combination will be realized..

The time wasted by the orange forces has benefitted PRU. They know that any orange coalition is unlikely to hold together for long, so sooner or later their moment will come. And, bolstered by disenchanted defectors, a coalition led by themselves would probably be more robust and stable.

PRU claim that some deputies defecting from other parties have secretly pledged them their support, so they have the numbers already, but because of rather unclear rules forbidding deputies to 'change horses in mid-stream', they cannot submit their candidate to be voted into office in the VR. Officially, if a deputy switches from one fraction to another, he supposedly automatically forfeits his mandate.

*Last September Yushchenko fired PM Yuliya Tymoshenko and her entire cabinet, sensationally blowing apart the orange coalition brought together for the 2004 Presidential elections, after her #2, Oleksandr Turchynov, who was head of the Ukrainian Security Service [SBU] at the time, was close to exposing corruption involving persons close to the President, in the field of gas procurement. They had allegedly continued running scams previously operated by members of the Kuchma regime. I have blogged previously about the current state of the SBU.

Monday update: NSNU have completed their 'consultations' with PRU and are ready to proceed with 'negotiations', according to one of NSNU's top negotiators, Roman Zvarych.

When asked to comment about progress between the three orange coalition partners, he replied, "There are differences which are sufficiently serious that they could become a barrier." But he did go on to say that if discussions start with PRU, then certain differences could arise, particulary concerning questions of NATO and [Russian] language [status].

NSNU and PR tango

It looks like it's going to be NSNU and PR. At least all the signs point that way. The heads of NSNU and PR have been ensconced away in negotiations today and there appears to be some movement on the NATO thing, at least if one senior member of PR can be believed. ("Our people will probably forget NATO, but they won't forget wages and pensions...")

I don't know how Our Ukraine is figuring this. Any uniting with PR will be seen as a complete abandonment of Maidan--maybe even a repudiation. "They spit in the faces of teh people who stood on the Maidan" would be the feeling. And they will suffer politically from it. That seems clear. But five years is a long time in politics and maybe they feel the people will forget that little side trip and who knows? If things shape up, maybe people will. The problem is that it will take a lot of will for things to shape up because that means reform and taking on corruption. It is hard for me to see that that is a part of the PR platform and it is looking like it is not on the agenda of some parties in Our Ukraine either.

Or do they think they can remain in power other ways? If that is true, the Orange Revolution will have purchased nothing. It will have been a brief interlude on the way to getting back to business as usual. I hope this isn't the case. Kuchma is beginning to look pretty good, though.

The real irony is that a NSNU/PR coalition will make Ukraine look more stable to the outside, that is, to investors and others. That can be a good thing but only if there is the kind of reform I don't think this crowd is seriously considering. I hope I'm wrong, but it would mean a guy like Yanukovych and his crowd suddenly seeing that the way they have done business in the past is either wrong, morally, or that it doesn't get them what they want. I don't see them finding religion on that issue at all and doing business the way they do it always gets them what they want.

The one problem it does solve is to enfranchise one half of the country. It will bring east Ukraine into the government. And that isn't a bad idea. The problem is at what cost and will there be any effective bridging of the divide? On the second, I don't think this is on anyone's agenda either. And the cost looks like it might be too high.

By the way, this might be one reason why Yuschenko is distancing himself from NSNU. Do they believe he is the head of the party? I don't believe they think they owe him anything. As a matter of fact, he might have been a drag on the party in the elections from their point of view. So are they really listening to him anyway? He preserves some credibility by distancing himself.

It is interesting that someone paint-bombed NSNU's headquarters today. The color of the paint? Blue. That is political speech, no?

Aimless drifting..

Yushchenko's NSNU say they will sign a coalition agreement with Party of Regions of Ukraine as long as three conditions are met :

• PRU reject federalism
• PRU reject decisions providing Russian language regional status
• PRU reject the assertion that Ukraine is 'NATO-free territory'

An NSNU source says bilateral "consultations" are taking place, but considers "calling them negotiations, [is] simply laughable." However, the source considers the positions of PRU and the Socialist Party of Ukraine 'very close'.

In the March parliamentary elections PRU received more than twice the number of votes than NSNU, and have 186 deputies to NSNU's 81. Surely it is PRU that should be dictating the terms, not NSNU? The Russian language issue in particular was a big plank in PRU's election campaign, and they really 'played up' the recent business with NATO troops in Crimea to embarrass Yushchenko, so there's a huge gap to bridge over before an NSNU-PRU deal can be agreed.

The tone of resignation in yesterday's addresses by Yuliya Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Moroz to parliament seemed to indicate that they considered their lengthy negotiations with NSNU were at an end. But President Yushchenko today still claimed he supports the creation of a democratic orange coalition. "The political forces that were victorious in democratic elections should carry out their mission and find mutual understanding within the framework of negotiations on formation of a coalition," he told journalists.

He added, that although he was not a participant in negotiations, "I shall do everything that needs to be done, in order that a democratic coalition takes place in Ukraine."

More of this on pressa's website in English here.

Does anyone really know anymore what he really wants or in what direction he is heading?

Events moving quickly now..

NSNU have not negotiating in good faith and are not interested in any orange parliamentary coalition. They have 'put a little cross on it', as they say in Ukraine. Socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz today made a big sacrifice and backed down from his long-standing demand to be proposed VR speaker, proposing only that all leading positions, from deputy of regional administrations to Prosecutor General, be distributed proportionally between the three orange coalition members .

But Anatoliy Kinakh, on behalf of NSNU, says this is still not acceptable. They are looking for 'new partners' which can only mean Yanukovych's PR, to join a grand coalition - something Yekhanurov and some others from NSNU, particularly its 'business wing' wanted from the start.

Even though NSNU have been exposed as a bunch of 'time-wasters', do they really believe that PR, the largest bloc in the new VR, who have now started a serious 'general mobilization', are going to play second fiddle to them and the President?

PR leading member Raisa Bohatyrova claimed yesterday that already 25 members from the orange forces have defected and will support PR. So, together with the Communists, they already have 231 out of 450 parliamentary votes 'in the bag', she gloated. They feel they now have the 'momentum'.

One pro-NSNU newspaper, sourcing Stanislav Byelkovsky quoted in a Latvian periodical, claims Tymoshenko is doing 'behind the scenes' deals with PR financial sponsor and VR deputy, Rinat Akhmetov. In exchange for supporting Tymoshenko's candidature for PM, Akhmetov would be allowed to add Ukraine's largest telecom company, Ukrtelekom [one of the last juicy morsels left for privatization] to his business empire. Although some NSNU deputies would not support Tymoshenko's candidature for PM, possibly 30 - 35 PR deputies would, claims Byelkovsky.

This may be just a 'spoiler', but I suspect there may be a lot of this kind of desparate jockeying by newly-elected deputies, and 'buying off' of votes going on, but ultimately PR will demand the lion's share of the top jobs in any grand coalition. Will NSNU and the President be prepared for the eventual humiliation? Amazingly, it seems that having Tymoshenko PM and Moroz VR speaker would have been an even more unpalatable scenario for them. It's like watching a train crash in slow motion..

I wonder if Yekhnurov and the rest of the NSNU negotiators will 'mess' PRU about as much a they did BYuT and the Socialists.

VR, meeting today for the first time in a while, have 'clocked off' early too, to watch events from WMschaft in Germany. A good result will put everyone in a better frame of mind.

Will they do it?

I have been busy, busy, busy with some deadlines that I am up against. But LEvko, as always, has kept everyone updated on the latest information about forming the government--or not forming it. Everyone is waiting to see what will happen. But with the indications we have right now, it doesn't look so good.

Our Ukraine says it is now free to find another coalition partner. The only other parties out there are the communists with their just over 3% and Party of the Regions. So which one do you think they mean?

If they don't form a government, Yuschenko will have to dissolve Parliament and that means new elections. If that happens, Our Ukraine will be sunk. Three things can happen at this point if they re-vote and all of them are bad. People will either stay home because they're fed up with it all, which favors the parties with true believers, BYuT and PR; or they will show up and vote for some other party because their fed up with it all; or they will show up and punish Our Ukraine-- because they are fed up with it all. The point is that people are fed up with it all. And they are mostly fed up with Our Ukraine. So they had better avoid a new vote.

Why won't there be a fourth option, a groundswell of support for Our Ukraine if there's a vote? Because people are fed up with it all.

Moroz comments on Coalition crisis

BBC Ukrainian service interviewed Oleksandr Moroz today after NSNU's decision to abandon further discussions on creation of an Orange parliamentary coalition, blaming the Socialists for the impasse.

Highlights:

"Notice that for a month the entire battle hinged on NSNU's inability to agree to Yuliya Tymoshenko's candidature for the position of PM. Now they say that a coalition cannot be worked out because of the Socialists. In truth, it's not about me or the Socialists. It's because they [NSNU] cannot agree amongst themselves."

"Everything will be realized for the benefit of persons from business structures who call themselves supporters of NSNU, and who have for long been conducting negotiations with PR with the aim of creating a coalition without us [Socialists], without BYuT, and so on.

Then he throws down a challenge: "Go ahead create it, [ a PR-NSNU coalition] don't make a secret of it..

When asked how will he act if the democratic coalition talks end in failure, [in this case is the expression 'democratic alliance' an oxymoron?] he replies, "We will go into opposition."

When asked how he rated the chances of an orange coalition being created, compared with a coalition formed by PR and only part of the orange forces, he replies, "I think 50 - 50".

'Wheels dropping off' Orange Coalition?

The NSNU press secretary stated today that the "coalition negotiations [between BYuT, NSNU and Socialists] have ceased." The stumbling block has been Moroz's nomination for VR speaker - NSNU are demanding this position is filled by one of their own people.

In a subsequent press conference Tymoshenko appealed to NSNU to resume talks, adding, "Those political forces which toppled the orange coalition the first time round, are toppling it for a second time right now."

She told journalists, without naming names, that "big money" lies behind this development, and that the impasse over VR speaker nomination, "is just an pre-planned excuse, in order to form a coalition having a different format."

When asked if this means that NSNU have been staging coalition talks with PR, she said, "I am convinced that a parallel process has gone on."

In today's radio address President Yushchenko washed his hands of the entire matter. "I consider that a politician who lays claim to the position of PM, should take responsibility for creation of the coalition...this is [normal] European practice."

He explained that he is not interfering int the process of coalition building because, "he does not want the coalition to be formed under pressure," and agreed that "BYuT who obtained 22% of the votes should choose the position of PM or VR speaker, NSNU, who obtained 14%, 'bagsies*' the second position, and the SPU 'bagsies' the third position.

So Tymoshenko has to sort out the mess - if the 'wheels drop off' the democratic coalition, it will be her fault. Not for the first time she will be 'nevistka' - daughter-in-law. [According to a Ukrainian saying, all domestic family problems and disputes are blamed on 'nevistka'.]
*see previous post.

Monday Update: [From Ukrainska Pravda]

OUR UKRAINE REJECTED THE COALITION
translated by Eugene Ivantsov , 12.06.2006, 12:55

Our Ukraine believes coalition with BYuT and SPU has no future, says Our Ukraine statement presented by its press service on Monday.
"Because of categorical statements made by SPU regarding speaker’s office Our Ukraine considers further negotiations unpromising," says the statement.
"Our Ukraine is sorry for the personal ambitions of SPU leader ruined negotiations."
"We believe such step is irresponsible to the people of Ukraine," reads the statement.

Coalition negotiations frozen by Moroz ..

So its out in the open - Yuriy Yekhanurov, NSNU's main negotiator, admitted today that the formation of the democratic coalition has stalled because the Socialists, the third largest participant in the coalition, insist their leader, Oleksandr Moroz be allocated the VR speaker's job.

As the second-largest participant in the democratic coalition, NSNU's first pick was for the VR speaker position too.

The largest participant, BYuT naturally bagsied* the PM's job.

They are all meeting tomorrow at noon to decide what to do. "The Socialists have driven the negotiations into dead end,"complained Yekhanurov.

*Bags. verb, often used by English children. To claim as one's own due to being the first to make such a claim. E.g."Bags I go first," or "We bagsy Crimea."{Informal}

Unforeseen finale to Coalition formation?

Today President Yushchenko was in Holland on an official visit - he enjoys trips abroad where receptions are friendly. Meanwhile, back at home, the Ukrainian Parliament [VR] announced another adjournment , this time to 14th June. Our Ukraine, BYuT, and SPU voted together to carry the motion, by the thinnest of majorities - 227 out of 435 deputies present.

The President, at a press conference in the Hague advised the parties trying to form the democratic coalition, to consider results of the March 26th elections when discussing allocation of government posts, which has been the main obstacle so far and main reason for delay in forming a coalition. “This would be the best way to show they respect the will of the people, as well as the best principle to share posts in the government and parliament..I think this principle has been disregarded.” Yushchenko often makes rather vague and verbose comments such as these, but maybe it's as close as he will get to saying he would agree to Tymoshenko being PM.

He had a meeting the day before with the top players forming the democratic coalition - Yuriy Yekhanurov, Roman Bezsmertny, Yulia Tymoshenko and Oleksandr Moroz, and they "managed to bridge many of differences,” he added.

Interesting piece in 'Ukr Pravda' today which says the main stumbling block preventing formation of the democratic coalition seems to be the Socialists' demands that their leader Oleksandr Moroz be appointed VR speaker.

His party are 'digging in' for this nomination - but NSNU insist on a 'counterweight' to Yuliya T for this position.' Moroz apparently is under great pressure from his party to demand the speaker's job [his last chance to achieve a high position in government]. They are telling Moroz they are indifferent in which coalition he is to gain this position ..

Article ends, "The feeling arises, that the dragging out of the process may lead to an unforeseen finale. As everyone is aware, the closure of the VR session greatly insulted the Party of Regions, who again remain outside of the process. It cannot be excluded that PR & the Communists, who are already arranging a meeting of deputies under the name of 'Stability in Ukraine', are organizing a transfer of parliament to the 'Ukrainskyi Dim'. Then there will be two alternatives: either PR will agitate or 'buy-off' a few deputies for their own majority, and form the govt. they want, or President Yushchenko, in order to avoid a velvet revolution in parliament, will have to cobble together a broad coalition with all of the predicted consequences."

It is absolutely obvious that results of the March 26th elections should be considered - now, even the President has said it.

Note: The new VR comprises PR 186, Communists 21, Socialists 33, BYuT 129, NSNU 81 Putting PR & KPU together provides 207 votes - 19 short of an absolute majority. If some of the Socialists were tempted or 'bought off,' some BYuT deputies would probably cross over too.

The 'Stability in Ukraine' group is a new inter-fractional group with 37 deputies from all five policial forces entering parliament, at the moment. According to Anatoliy Kinakh, the members are highly qualified leaders of top enterprises. Kinakh says that it is not an alternative to VR majority..."[but that] its work will be directed, so that on the basis of constructive co-operation with the president, coalition govt, to form rules of game for development of the economy."

Are they thugs?

One commenter here suggests that I implied the protestors in Crimea were thugs and criminals by suggesting they might have gone on a looting spree.

That was all tongue and cheek. How could "dozens" of people, instead of hundreds or thousands as in Paris, go on a looting spree? And when they ran out of songs? Did they sing any? That is a phenomenon of the US, gather around to protest and sing about overcoming or no more this or that.

I posted it that way because it was funny to me the idea of "dozens" of Ukrainians linking their arms around the port (how do "dozens" do that effectively) then going on a looting spree when they ran out of songs. That is a funny thing to me and still is. And I would think with the kind of sense of humor Ukrainians have, it would be funny to them too.

In any event, I might post something else here that is funny to me. I could label it but I probably won't. Just so you know.

Soccer and politics

So the likelyhood that PRU will form part of the government coalition is receding.

Anti-NATO demonstrations in Crimea, and the elevation in some eastern oblasts and cities of the Russian language to the status of regional language are dominating the news. And in Moscow there's been renewed talk of Crimea being returned to Russia.

Is it naive to consider these matters are connected?

Is this a new strategy by PRU to seize power in the country by some kind of coup d'etat, or as a last resort, a forced splitting of Ukraine, as one observer suggests?

In the next few days Ukraine's bid to win soccer's World Cup in Germany, arguably the biggest sporting event in the world, begins. For the first time Ukraine qualified for the finals, and has several world-class players, so could do well.

Russia has failed to qualify.

Ukrainians across the country, both in the east and the west, whatever their political affiliations, will be 'glued' to their televisions, cheering on their national team.

Over many decades, it has been clear that success in this tournament by a country's nation team, has had a marked influence on the economy and 'feel-good' factor of that country.

E.g. West Germany's success and victory in the 1954 finals provided a historical turning point, helping restore that country's prestige after WW2. Victory for the England team playing at home in the 1966 finals, was a major factor helping the then government, which basked in the reflected glory of its national team, to be re-elected at the next general elections.

Sporting events in Germany over the next few weeks, apart from diverting attention from serious problems and challenges at home, will have an influence events in Ukraine. Success will be a boost for the President. However, success has many fathers, failure is an orphan..

Sensational revelations about SBU..

Last September Oleksandr Turchynov resigned as head of the Ukrainian Security Services, [SBU] on the day PM Yuliya Tyomoshenko and her cabinet had been sacked by President Yushchenko. He was quickly replaced by Ihor Drizhchanyi who promised, when introduced by Yushchenko, to 'spare no effort' to make the Security Service a modern, efficient body, which will serve the nation's interests.

Turchynov, in a press conference following his resignation, said he had been closing in on persons close to President Yushchenko linked to corruption in the gas industry, but was told to 'back off' by Yushchenko himself.

A few days ago, on 1st June, "Ukrayina Moloda" a Ukrainian daily edited by presidential adviser Mykhaylo Doroshenko, published a sensational article "Ihor Drizhchanyi leases out Security Service of Ukraine to serve the Clans and Moscow".

A quote: "Athough it is unpleasant to admit, but after the victory of Maidan democracy the SBU has gradually slid away from state control. But worse, in such a situation, clans and even [those from] abroad are striving to control Volodymyrska St, [SBU headquarters] and not state officials." The article state that by those from abroad they clearly mean 'Moscow'.

[There is a summary in the current AUR #706 here, but the original lengthy original article is well worth reading because the revelations are so startling.]

Just one revelation: The current 'gray cardinal' in the SBU, Volodymyr Radchenko, who headed the SBU in the days of Kuchma and is now an adviser to Drizhchanyi, allegedly sold a portion of land adjacent the SBU main building in Kyiv to 'king of Donbas' Rinat Akhmetov to provide the Donbas elite with luxury penthouses and apartments. Some in the Donbas-based PRU wanted Radchenko as their candidate in the 2004 Presidential elections - a 'Ukrainian Putin', rather than twice-jailed Yanukovych.

Because the breadth and seriousness of the allegations in the article are so great, and 'Ukraina Moloda' so close to the President, this story will 'run and run'.

ps Check out British 'Independent' here for story on the business in Feodosiya/

Arrogant Putin

In a recent press conference, Vladimir Putin replied in the following manner to a question by a German press agency chief who asked him about deteriorating relations in the sphere of energy supplies between the Russian Federation and its partners, and also about Russia's refusing western countries access to its gas deposits:

"Our western friends supported the Orange events in Ukraine. That which is going on all of this time, we can can [all] see brilliantly - there's lots of problems. If you support that which is going on there, then you will have to pay [for it]. Why should we pay?"

"Why should German consumers pay $250 for Th.c.m. of gas, when in Ukraine they pay $50? If you want to make gifts, then pay for them. Why should we pay?"

Not very statesmanlike comments considering last March's Parliamentary elections were considered by everyone as being the fairest in Ukraine's history -totally free of foreign interference.

From 1985 to 1990 the KGB stationed Putin in Dresden, East Germany, in what he himself acknowledges was a minor position.

ps Not much reaction to events in Feodosiya by parties forming the 'democratic coalition, so far. NATO must be a dirty word in Ukraine.

Chernomyrdin weighs in

Just when I said it was about money, I find that the Russian ambassador to Ukraine says it about geopolitics. So which is it?

Probably both.

Kremlin at it again? A turning worm

Is the Kremlin raising gas prices as of July 1st to prevent the ascension of Yulia to the premiership? That is one of the explanations for why Moscow is raising the gas price right now asserted in an article from RFE/RL. I suppose the argument is that if Yulia is PM she'll tear up the agreement made in January, which she has said she will do and that is not good for the Kremlin. But will raising the price of gas prevent that from happening?

The argument would have to go something like this: We'll raise the price on them to show them we can do it any time we want to. Knowing that, they will be careful not to choose someone who'll just make us want to do it again. That means no Yulia.

That doesn't follow too well to be even the kind of thinking the Kremlin might come up with.

I think we're beyond that sort of thing. They are raising the price because they can do it. Are they looking for anything in return like pressuring Ukraine to return to the fold? I don't think so. I think it's a question now of maximizing profits. Gazprom is looking to make a public offering and I think they are wanting to make it look as good as they can. It's simply a question of profitability and money and the fact that they can get it by raising the rates. And Ukraine has been so ham-handed at any kind of response I think the Kremlin thinks it can weather any kind of criticism that might come of it. And they very well might be able to. We'll see.

Putin has to keep two sets of people happy, the clans in the Kremlin and the people. He keeps the clans happy by giving them businesses. He keeps the people happy by keeping the economy humming and maintaining stability. Gazprom is crony run and may be the place Putin ends up after he leaves office. Making sure it's doing well benefits the cronies and the economy (and may ensure it is a real power base for his use later.) That means one stone for helping to keep two birds happy--or something like that.

The price of natural gas has gone up 50% for residential uses. There has been some reaction but not much. But that is a real signficant rise in the price. And raising the price further might mean real economic problems ahead. And it will mean hardship for a number of people.

A lot of people here cannot afford to live as things stand now. If the cost of living goes up because of the rise in price of natural gas, that might just push these people over the edge. What will they do then?

Russia, Crimea and NATO

The State Duma of the Russian Federation intends to ask the government about the possibility of Crimea being returned to Russia. Several days ago a majority of Duma’s members backed the corresponding protocol message to the Duma Committees on the International Affairs and CIS.

Even the Communist Party of Ukraine have condemned this move. Russia's periodic trouble-making over Crimea is counter-productive and mainly for domestic consumption.

korrespondent.net conducted [an admittedly non scientific] straw poll recently, asking readers: 'How should Ukraine react to the State Duma's wish to take back Crimea?' Out of 679 votes cast, only 2.8% said return Crimea; 35% said take back former Kievan Rus' lands, and 22% said apply all efforts, up to the use of military action; 17% said use diplomatic efforts to maintain Ukraine's integrity; and 12% said take no notice.

It's about time Putin made his position clear on this matter, preferably before the G8 summit.

Meanwhile Party of Regions have indicated that they are not anti-NATO, and want "to do the same as Russia, i.e. without direct entry into NATO, to seriously deepen Ukraine's co-operation [with the alliance]; but membership would have to be decided only after a referendum on the matter," according to PR press service, quoting Taras Chornovil, one of the party's 'leading lights'. The referendum could take place, "no sooner than in two or three year's time." These statements have maybe been timed to cover embarrassment over the demonstrations against the US vessel in Feodosiya recently, about which Scott has recently written. A majority of Ukrainians are against full NATO membership at the moment.


Update:
Update: Today the Russian State Duma has retracted questions about possible union between Crimea and Russia. It was all a mistake and a misunderstanding, according to Chairman of the interparliamentary Committee for co-operation between Federal assemblies and the Ukrainian VR Konstyantin Zatulin.

Anti-NATO demonstrations

There were some demonstrations in the Crimea a few days back when an American naval ship moored at a port down there to drop off some supplies for a NATO exercise to be held somewhere around that area. These demonstrations were filled with anti-NATO protestors and they were large enough to make the national news.

How large were they? "Dozens" of demonstrators participated. Dozens? Soudns kind of sparse doesn't it? Yet it made teh national news. Couldn't have been more than a couple of dozen people there to sings songs of freedom and overcoming and linking arms to surround that symbol of , what? Western expansionism? Yet yet it made the national news. Sounds like what passes for an unbiased view of what is newsworthy at US news outlets.

I'm surprised they didn't go on a looting spree after they ran out of songs.

There's something about it here.

The mayor and apartments

It has been noted in the press here that Chernovetsky has given up his mayor’s paycheck for it to be used to buy apartments for Kiev citizens who don’t have them. That’s a nice gesture though it will probably not amount to much given the rise in apartment prices here in the past couple of years. I don’t think the mayor gets paid all that much relatively speaking so it will be a drop in the bucket.

The other problem is that there are over 100,000 people on the government’s list to get apartments. A couple of years back we went down to the local government agency that dealt with that in the area where we lived then and saw the list. It was in the lobby, that is, the hallway leading off from the front door. (There are no lobbies here in government buildings, just hallways.) I don’t know how many names were on that list but it stretched along a long wall. There were probably a couple of thousand names on it.

But the thing we saw that didn’t look promising was that some of them had been on that list since the 1960s. This is not a good sign. It is likely that they have been passed over by other, (cough) better connected apartment-less people, but that still isn’t a good sign.

Chernovetsky says that some of those on these lists are not there legitimately. And he might be right. But in one of his weekly town hall meetings in the front of the city council building on Kreschatyk downtown a couple of weeks ago, there were a large number of people there asking for help. The number one request: Get me an apartment.

One woman at that meeting said she is living in a one room apartment with her son and his family. That puts her in the kitchen. She told Chernovetsky she sleeps in the kitchen and he, seeing that she was an older woman, suggested that she could be taken to a senior center. There were places there. It may have seemed to him a reasonable thing to say—it does solve a problem-- but it sounded heartless.

It was after that meeting that he said he would forgo his mayor’s salary so that it could be used to buy apartments. Maybe the scope of the problem sunk in afterward. But it may take his Praveks Bank earnings to make any real dent in it.