Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Ukraine facing same old problem

By "commissiong the Party of Regions, BYuT, Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense and the other winners to start preliminary political consultations to form a majority in Ukraine’s parliament and form a government," the pres. today revealed he favours a grand coalition - there are already unconfirmed reports of behind-the-scenes meetings between head of pres.s secretariat Viktor Baloha, PoR fraction honcho Boris Kolesnikov, and Voldymyr Lytvyn.

Tymoshenko is demanding clarification on this, but Pres. has gone to Germany at this critical time [to bestow an award to the Queen of Sweden?! - fixing up next summer's holiday?].

BYuT have again today reiterated [for the umpteeth time] that they would rather go into oppostion than join a coalition which includes PoR.

In theory BYuT and NUNS could create a ruling VR coalition on their own, but with only 228 deputies in a 450 seat VR, it would most likely crumble in weeks.

The Lytvyn bloc, with 20 deputies of their own, could join them, but closer examination reveals this bloc to be a most peculiar construct indeed.

Their well-financed election campaign was generously supported by Vasyl Khmelnytskiy, Ukraine's 12th richest oligarch. He had been a BYuT deputy in the previous VR, but was one of the first to 'jump ship' and collaborate with PoR in the spring, when orange deputies started drifting over to the ruling anti-crisis coalition. He now appears on the new PoR list, but many of 'his people' will enter the new VR on the Lytvyn bloc list.

I have posted previously about Lytvyn and the people with whom he tried to enter the VR in last March's elections, and others have also posted on his dubious past.

Recent history strongly suggests such a BYuT-NUNS-Lytvyn coalition would not be stable, even if formed.

As for PoR, going into opposition now would be too great a humiliation. They will simply refuse to pick up their newly-gained parliamentary mandates - the new VR would be still-born, and the current Yanukovych cabinet would continue to function.

A few moments ago, in Berlin, Yush emphasized that some positions in the government and parliament must be given to the opposition.

Sadly, some pro-orange commentators have gotten rather over-excited in recent days.

LEvko thinks Yanuk could possibly be sacrificed to assuage orange anguish if a broad coalition is formed. Whatever the composition of any new ruling VR coalition and government, it will be an improvement on the previous PoR-Communist-Socialist anti-crisis coalition.

If BYuT go into opposition, because have gained over 150 seats in the new VR, they have the power to 'bring down the roof' at a time of their choosing.

However, a cheering feature revealed in the voting results, is highlighted in a 'Kyiv Weekly' article : the distant regions of Ukraine have it seems have drawn closer together - the threat of a split has receeded somewhat.

In the north-west oblasts of Rivne and Lutsk, PoR scored a respectable 10% and 7%,. BYuT did well in the eastern and southern oblasts. NUNS scored 9% in Crimea, BYuT 16% in the Kharkiv oblast.

The results show that the number of core regions, in which individual parties dominated in the 2006 elections, i.e. exceeded their score by 50% compared with the entire country, has been reduced by one quarter. So the scare stories of 'Banderites' in the east, and 'bandits' in the west are not having the same impact as previously. Parties, maybe for the first time since indepence, are becoming national parties, not just regional parties.

2 comments:

WRY said...

An excellent analysis. Yushchenko's problem is that the two biggest winners of the elections both seem to have "winner take all" philosophies.

UkraineToday said...

Yes there is a strange a ring of truth to your conspiracy theory.

Did Yushchenko really hold his unconstitutional election just to oust Moroz and the socialists and to restart his parties failed coalition negotiations with Party of Regions?

With Yulia in Government the Party of Regions and the Socialists (Who will be back at the next election) are in a stringer position to win the next election as all the blame will be on Yulia.

If Moroz and Vitrenko had cut a deal 2 (CPU) to 1 (PSU) the the results of the election would have been reversed.

The precedent has now been set and the opposition can call a fresh election at the time of their choosing in a years time. Most likely to maxi,se chances at teh presidetial electionoto force a early presidential ballot

3 seats (228 out of 450)is not a stable working majority. (members can still cross the floor or be absent from the chamber on cruscial votes.)

The minor parties were always a key to the outcome of the September 30 ballot.

Add up the votes BYuT + OU has 45% and PoR + CPU + Lytvyn+ SPU + PSPU have 48%.

The main loser in the ballot (apart from SPU) was the President's Party "Our Ukraine" who only marginally increased their percentage of the vote and this in spite of the president's preaching from the presidential pulper every night and the child co0ming and formation of a merger/takeover of the peoples self defence movement. You would have expected a much higher vote for Our Ukraine then the 0.2% swing.

The formation of a coalition with Party of Regions could very well see the cake divided and eaten.