Monday, October 01, 2007

Easy way of gaining seats

A poll of exit polls show the Socialists gaining 2.5% of votes cast, which would give them precisely zero deputies in the new VR.

Assuming that around 20 million Ukrainians in total voted, if about 100,000 votes for the Socialists could be "found" from somewhere right now, this would give the Socialists 3% of the votes and, bingo! 14 or 15 seats in the new VR, which could significantly tilt the result in PoR's favour.

There are 450 seats in the VR, so each deputy normally is equivalent to 20 million divided by 450 voters, i.e. about 44 thousand voters. But for parties bubbling just below the 3% threshold, a few thousand votes could be very, very valuable.

Tempting, no?

Update: Both President Yushchenko, in an official statement [in English here] and the Central Election Commission have warned electoral commissions, particularly in southern and eastern oblasts, to make haste and complete their counting of votes. The clear hint is that there may be malevolent intent behind the delay. He added that any falsifications will be dealt with by law enforcement agencies. Hmm..

There is chance that the Socialists may just creep in by a gnat's **** too, so, tension increasing..

1 comment:

UkraineToday said...

A polling place by polling place analysis showed a swing of 2.9% against the SPU. which was always going to see them fall short of the 3% of the total vote (Including Against all and informal votes) was a tough call. The Socialist in the end fell short by 0.14% (IE 32,000 to 33,000 votes).

Poltava region was the Key

The main swing in the Socialist vote was in Poltava (down from 20% to less then 3%)

Yulia Tymoshenko and Our Ukraine together got 45% of the vote

If you add up the votes of Party of Regions + Communists + Lytvyn + SPU and PSPU they have 48%

There was a consolidation of the vote with the sum of votes above 3% representing 88.5% (last year it was around 72%)

Had the SPU and the PSPU struck up a deal 2 (SPU for 1 PSPU) the results of the election would have been reversed.

The Key to the election was always going to be SPU fortune. That is why Yulia targeted Moroz ( Lets not forget that it was Our Ukraine that caused the collapse of the original Orange coalition in 2006 by not agree in a timely fashion to form a governing coalition in an attempt to oust Yulia from the top spot)

Have a look at the geopolitical divide. Lugansk to Ivan-Frank oblst results highlight the extent of the division in Ukraine.

I am working on further stats in relation to alternative electoral system. hopefully can present these soon, but a preferential proportional voting system (39 local electorates each returning 9 members on a 10% quota total 351 members fo parliament) would be more democratic and representative then the existing party lists system