Sunday, September 30, 2007

Lytvyn holds the key

Exit polls indicate today's elections may produce a paper-thin and fragile BYuT-NUNS majority coalition with 227 to 233 deputies in the 450 seat parliament. If Lytvyn's bloc, join them, this would increase to 252 - a reasonable working majority.

PoR and Communists will probably only be able to muster 198 to 204 between them. If they are jointed by Lytvyn's bloc they will still only secure 223 places - insufficient to form a majority.

But there are big buts..

PoR's sponsors will not readily accept their party going into opposition - they run too much of Ukraine's industrial base to allow their political enemies to control the country's economy. In their eyes Yushchenko's dismissal of parliament, and today's election, was illegal in any case. They were set fair for several more years in power until Yushchenko pulled the plug on the VR, so they will be hurting bad..

PoR will be desperate to form and lead a stable grand coalition with NUNS, and will demand the economic portfolios in any new cabinet. The wily fox Lytvyn will probably be working on a deal on these lines right now..

p.s. All pre-election opinion polls underrated BYuT 'big-time' yet again.

Update: PoR's own exit poll has PoR at 36%, BYuT 30%, NSNU 11%, Commies 4.5%, with Lytvyn's bloc 'overcoming the 3% barrier'. Again it looks as if Lytvyn will be the king maker.


Anonymous said...

In the event the opinion polls are right perhaps the best tactics for Tym's political oponents would be to concede, acquire a bit of patience and give her plenty of rope. If she becomes PM now she's got her work cut out for her. Her voters are expecting an end to corruption and the bandits in prison, which won't happen. She'll have higher gas prices - hefty if she wants to get rid of the middleman. She'll have very little co-operation and plenty of enemies trying to skewer her. When she left office last time her ratings were 10%. So she's a political winner out of office but in office and with such a big margin over her coalition partners she's going to be held responsible by a lot of people with high expectation. I see a lot of room for a big fall.

Anonymous said...

It looks like the bookies may have been wrong.

Anonymous said...

Real ques. is did you take the bookie's bet?

Anonymous said...

Litvan and the Socialist Party were the Keys. Had the SPU crossed the line then the results would have been reversed.

This was always the case and the reason why Yulia targeted Moroz and the Socialist Party of Ukraine. Poltava region was the main battle ground