Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Kivalov's predictions

Serhiy Kivalov [see photo], former head of the Central Election Commission and 'fiddler in chief' during the 2004 presidential elections, now a PoR deputy, has written a piece in 'Glavred' entitled: "Will the results of elections [appear] by the winter?"

He is the man whose face reminds me of the Sopranos, or Hollywood prison movies on the roof of Alcatraz.
If he was ever in a court dock, he would get 6 months for looks alone.
His literary skills seem to exceed the numeracy skills that he demonstrated in 2004. I've loosely translated some portions.

"How many days will be required for the CEC to declare the results of the extraordinary elections to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine? Practical experience and [current] legislation suggest that the days required for calculation may turn into months.

The 'oranges' declare, that the VR will be working already in October. Personally I have serious doubts doubts on this, and will explain why.

The law of Ukraine: "On the election of peoples' deputies," states that the CEC must establish the results of elections not later, than 15 days after voting day, and results must be promulgated not later than 5 days after the day of the establishment of results.
Everything would be simple, if it were not the high probability of the avalanche of complaints from outsiders of elective process.
The code of judicial system administration has placed a time bomb on the periods of the declaration of the results of elections, because it forbids proclaiming the results of elections until the moment that not one complaint remains to be dealt with by the courts concerning the elective process.

It goes without saying, each subject of the elective process and voter has a right to challenge decisions, actions or inactions of the election commissions at any level, if such decsions, actions or inactions omission disrupt their elective rights or interests. Any appeal has to be submitted within two days to an administrative law court. The period permitted to examine such matters is 5 days. The resolution of administrative law court can be appealed by an appellate order in the appellate administrative law court in the course of the next 2 days. The period the examination of such matters in the appellate administrative organs is 2 days. Thus, examination of a complaint by a voter could take up 11 days.

Furthermore, an appeal on the work of neighborhood election commissions can be made up to 5 days after election day. The period of examination for such matters is 5 days. The resolution of administrative law court can be appealed in an appellate order to an appellate administrative law court during the next 2 days. The period of the examination of such matters in the appellate administrative court is 2 days. This means the declaration of the results could be postponed by two weeks.

Finally the results can be can be appealed 5 days later in the highest administrative law court. The period of the examination of such matters in the highest administrative law court is 5 days. Consequently, matters could be dragged out for 25 days.

Simple calculation shows the results of the extraordinary VR elections 2007 could be proclaimed 50 days after polling on 30th September.

All this is not just manipulation of numbers, but the real state of affairs. But this only one side of the coin. On the other side, while all this being calculated, the work in the parliament will be considered illegitimate, and the country's problems multiply.

E.g. the deadline for debating the 2008 budget in the VR has been postponed for an indetermined period, although according to the constitution of Ukraine and budgetary code the project must be directed by KabMin to parliament by 15th September, and should be is accepted in its entirety by 1st December. Deviation from this is a dangerous tendency.

In the country the judicial system is being destabilized. Judges who have ended their five-year period of duty, and the candidatures of new ones which must be examined in VR for election to the post of judges, cannot take place. At the beginning of autumn of this year approximately 400 judges are not working, but are drawing a state salary, whilst the case-load of their remaining colleagues grows.

I fear, that this time the popular saying won't ring true: we won't be able to count our chickens by the autumn. At best it will be winter already. And that, if the elections will not have been declared void."

LEvko considers the scenario presented by 'Pidrakhuy' Kivalov to be realistic, particularly if the election result turns out 'even-stevens'. And as I have written previously, Yanukovych has called these elections illegal, so why should PoR accept the result if it goes against them?
UNIAN reports that yesterday nearly 60 thousand people attended Yuliya Tymoshenko's election hustings in Chernihiv, a town about 140 km north of Kyiv with a population of around 300,000. [photo here]

In March last year BYuT garnered 33% of votes cast in the Chernihiv oblast. Some say Ukraine's voters 'have had it with their politicians?'
Have they really?
P.s. Several days ago a firearm was confiscated from Serhiy Kivalov while he was on board an aircraft that had taken off from Borispil Kyiv on an international flight. No charges have been made - the minister of internal affairs, Vasyl Tsushko, when questioned about about this, responded, "I know nothing, I'm on leave."

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