Wednesday, October 17, 2007

What happens next?

On Monday evening BYuT and NUNS signed a declaration of intent to work together as a ruling coalition in the VR, having gained 228 seats.

Their relationship has to be formalized at the first session of the new, sixth convocation, of the VR. The Central Election Commission has completed its tasks on time, but the date of this first plenary session of parliament has not yet been determined by a special preparatory group comprising representatives from each fraction entering the new VR. The group sets the agenda for that day, as well as the appointing a temporary presidium, sorting out the seating arrangements etc.

According to the most optimistic forecasts this session will not take place earlier than the last few days of this month.

Much can change in that time. "Regionaly" could regroup, and try a new tack in order to avoid going into opposition. Or the newly-formed democratic coalition could fall out over cabinet seats or other details.

According to Taras Chornovil, one of PoR's 'mouthpieces', Regiony may even be prepared to sacrifice Yanukovych and force him to 'fall on his microphone' in exchange for a broad coalition.

And Yushchenko today appointed a Lytvynite to head the Mykolayiv oblast state administration [a little sweetener, on account maybe?]

Lytvyn's bloc, which gained 20 seats in the new VR, will not even discuss who they will support for PM until a majority coalition is formally assembled in the new VR. If this coalition has an orange hue, then their bloc will consider this question at that time, said one of Lytvyn's boys.

A former British PM once said, "A week is a long time in politics."

'Segodnya' speculates PoR may block the functioning of the new VR, preventing any voting on cabinet posts. They are particularly annoyed the oranges will attempt to reverse the law on the Cabinet of Ministers that reduced presidential powers, which BYuT had supported earlier this year.

And if Yushchenko has second thoughts on a Tymoshenko premiership at any time, he has only has to whisper in the ear of a few NU deputies to press the 'Against' button..

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