Sunday, January 19, 2014

Bad Moon Rising -Trouble on the way?

As the result of legislation 'passed' in parliament a couple of days ago, then almost immediately signed off by the president, "..on paper, Ukraine is now a dictatorship."

It is dawning on the electorate there will be no realistic possibility of resolution of the current Ukrainian crisis by normal democratic  means - that of free and fair presidential elections in Spring 2015.

Valeriy Pornikov, in a recent article, points out the naivety of Yanukovych's strategy in  following Putin's path to authoritarianism, because different situations exist in their respective countries.

In Russia, Putin has introduced authoritarianism by stealth, bit by bit, over several years, with no major protests along the way. In Ukraine, the new laws have been passed 'out of the blue' at the height of a political crisis.

A significant portion of Moscovites support Putin wholeheartedly, whereas Kyiv city centre is the heart of protests that are supported, probably, by a majority of the capital's citizens.

Putin's trump card is that he can buy off disgruntled members of the electorate with revenues generated from export of hydrocarbons. Yanukovych does not have this option - the state coffers are empty.

Nevertheless, Yanukovych remains in a strong position

Pornikov concludes: Representatives of dissent are the leaders of the parliamentary opposition parties who [in order to retain legitimacy] are restricted to political dialogue rather than any proposal to use force to seize power.

The fact that there has not been any [crisis resolution] dialogue is not the fault of the opposition or of society, but rather is a tragedy for the country, because in any civilised country such a great many people on the streets would lead to their complaints being heard,  and a mutually acceptable compromise formula being found - which is even more important bearing in mind the country's regional differences.

Today Ukraine has stalled between an authoritarian model of the post Soviet type,  and the radicalisation of dissent which may no longer be capable of being coordinated by the parliamentary opposition. The result could be full-blown dramatic conflict, with no winners.

Bad Moon Rising

I see the bad moon rising.
I see trouble on the way.
I see earthquakes and lightnin'.
I see bad times today.

Don't go around tonight,
Well, it's bound to take your life,
There's a bad moon on the rise.

I hear hurricanes ablowing.
I know the end is coming soon.
I fear rivers over flowing.
I hear the voice of rage and ruin.

Hope you got your things together.
Hope you are quite prepared to die.
Looks like we're in for nasty weather.
One eye is taken for an eye.

Creedence Clearwater Revival  

No comments: