Saturday, February 08, 2014

[Updated] The march to disaster

Straight- talking wise old bird Oleh Soskin was interviewed on Friday.

[Update: View the 45 minute Hromadske TV clip, in Ukrainian, here]

Here are some points he made:

Since becoming president and enlarging presidential powers, Yanukovych has created an efficient nationwide structure that is sucking money out of Ukraine's economy on an industrial scale. The beneficiaries of the scheme are primarily 'The Family' and their appointees.

Ukraine's economy is on the brink of economic default, and no more loans will be forthcoming from Putin. The Ukrainian treasury will very soon not be able to pay state employees, teachers, doctors, police, civil servants etc. or the 7 million or more pensioners who have to exist on a little more than $100 per per month. Such people have virtually no financial reserves and will be driven to penury in days rather than weeks. The hrynia's current devaluation will cause prices in the shops to dramatically increase.

EuroMaidan until now has been primarily driven by the petite bourgeoisie fed up with being squeezed by the taxman and corrupt state officials. The late pull-out from the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU and the hope that it would bring a better tomorrow, then the imposition of authoritarian and repressive laws [later sort of annulled/or not] were the last straw.

If/when EuroMaidan protesters are joined by lower strata of society who will have nothing to eat, a Bosnian Spring scenario is most probable. On Friday government buildings in several towns were set alight there as protests rapidly grew in intensity.

In Ukraine it will be 'every oblast for itself' as central government loses control of the country. Everyone is aware in which direction the wrath of the mob will be directed - against the authorities.

There remain only a few days to prevent the unfolding of such events. Ominously, Ukraine's leaders fail to recognise reality. And also "only 27 percent of people polled in January by Democratic Initiatives expressed hope for a political solution" to the current crisis.

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