Tuesday, February 18, 2014

What to expect from Yanukovych

Seasoned commentator, Vadym Denysenko, now at Espreso.tv, provides some good analysis on the currennt sitation in Ukraine. Below is a summary:

Yanukovych believes that after the clearance of some administration buildings and the release from detention of protesters according to a hastily cobbled together hybrid law, the situation is the country has been now reset from scratch. It is as if the events of the last three months simply did not take place.

Moreover, Yanukovych is certain Putin will provide more money and everything will now be just fine. [As I write it seems Russia intends to purchase another $2Bn worth of Ukrainian bonds]

Yanukovych is convinced that appointment of a new PM will strengthen the Party of Regions, because each of the disgruntled groups inside PoR that could raise the head above the parapet, can be bought out with the appropriate cabinet office. Conversations are being held with individual deputies and aid is being promised to help solve issues in their individual constituencies.

Thus Yanukovych believes he can bring his party members under control. However, at the same time there are more complex problems. Changes can be clearly seen Akhmetov's group in which a sub-group of MPs loyal to Boris Kolesnikov is drifting toward the [pro-Kremlin] Medvedchukivtsi.

Those of Akhmetov's group orientated toward Deputy Prime Minister Vilkul are also at a crossroads and are ready at any moment to try and start their own game. In Odesa, the Maidan was scattered by  titushky from Vilkul's home town of Kryvyi Rih. And attempts to throw iodine dye at Klitschko, and other politicians  suggest that Vilkul is ready to take a more radical position (similar to Dobkin and Kernes in Kharkiv) if this allows him to climb the career ladder.

It is important to note that the head of "Shakhtar Donetsk" Palkin unexpectedly declared an anathema on those fans who support the Maidan. This statement can be considered a veiled message to Yanukovych: Akhmetov is not going to go the way of Maidan.

In general, we can be almost certain that the authorities will manage to restore full control over the Party of Regions' faction. But having sorted out his parliamentary faction, Yanukovych has solved problems for only a couple of months because many will still be dissatisfied by the 'sweeteners' they receive from the ruling authorities. Moreover, the economic situation will require drastic urgent changes, and no one will be prepared to carry them out.

It should also be noted that tomorrow [Tuesday] PoR will not vote for any proposals to immediately change the Constitution. In the coming days the government will try force through the vote for a new prime minister, whose work will considered semi-legitimate not only in the eyes of half of the population, but also in the eyes of half the world.

Denyskenko writes: it should be noted that Yanukovych will not do anything about the federalists inside PoR who want the country to split into loosely connected regions. He will use the traditional tactic of 'wait and see' so it seems that he really does not understand the threats posed by these federalists.

On financial support Denysenko writes: Yanukovych still does not fully understand that for both Putin and the West he has ceased to exist  as a subject with which they can negotiate. Even if a few billion are allocated, it does not mean that Putin is ready to continue to actively support Yanukovych. The Kremlin has already begun consultations over who could be agreeable both to Putin and the West during a period of transition. The format of tripartite consultations on Ukraine on which Yanukovych recently strongly insisted could now play a trick on him and backfire.  He is no longer needed by anyone in this format.

Immediately after the Olympics, Putin will demand payment of the gas debt which will be about $ 4 billion. Yanukovych will be forced to offer 51% of the gas transportation system. As a result, the Russians will buy Ukraine's gas transport system for 7-8 billion. But for Yanukovych, getting his hands on 3- 4 billion will provide respite for just one and a half or two months.

Denysenko thinks the authorities will put into place phony provocateurs from within the ranks of law enforcement officers, and concludes: Yanukovych still has not understood that the country has changed, people have changed and their opinions have changed. The president's entourage live in a rigid state of inertia. The dominant motivation throughout the Party of Regions whatever they do, is fear and greed. Maidan has not yet taught them anything.

p.s. Yanukovych is scraping the bottom of the barrel in his choices for PM. Yuriy Boyko is a discredited crook - stole hundreds of millions on offshore gas drilling platforms. No-one is going to lend him serious money..Arbuzov? Very dodgy when it comes to numbers...has not made much of an impression at all with the IMF...bit of a mummy's boy...she has a very shady background and got him his first job in Yanukovych Jr's bank.
67-year old VR Speaker Volodymyr Rybak  could be pulled out of his coffin in the best traditions of the late Soviet era, and may also in the running as Yanukovych's glove-puppet..

Former catering college student Olena Lukash? Plus points?...good at making pyrogies?

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