Monday, May 28, 2007

Is the crisis really over?

A commenter asks, "Is the crisis really over?"

An article in 'Ukr. Pravda' exposes some of the problems that the Ukraine now face in order to extricate themselves from the current political crisis.

151+ deputies have to tear up their VR mandates for matters to proceed [see previous posting] This is not be so straightforward because deputies who may not appear on any new election lists would be reluctant to do such a thing. This mechanism could now be used in future by any disgruntled opposition, of whatever colour, as blackmail to dissolve parliament - obviously not a good thing.

The article outlines a scenario for resolution of the crisis:

29th May Yushchenko cancels his ukaz[s] dissolving the VR.

The opposition returns to the VR and supports the passing of necesary new laws. NU and BYuT then stage party conferences annulling their VR mandates, on 30th May.

After this it will be necessary to adhere to the current constitution whereby the president has to issue another ukaz on fresh elections at least 60 days before they are to take place, i.e. this 3rd ukaz has to be issued by 2nd August.

In other words for the period July-August politicians could well be in a state of limbo, waiting for the pres to call fresh elections - and much could happen to disrupt the smooth sequence of planned events. Non signatories to yesterday's agreements could well figure in any disruptive acts.

A case in point is the uncertainty over who is the Prosecutor-General. The president says it's now Shemchuk. The coalition are sticking with Piskun. [who now says that he is leaving PoR]

There are problems with three Constitutional Court judges who Yushchenko 'dismissed' and over whom charges of alleged corruption hang heavy.

And Yushchenko wants to punish Minister of Interal Affairs Tsushko for leading Friday's clumsy raid on the Prosecutor-General's office. The president's recent utterances indicate he considers this a matter of some gravity..

LEvko thinks 30th September elections can be by no means guaranteed.


DLW said...

It sure seems like that's how they're trying to spin it...


DLW said...

According to Veronica, it seems the general presumption is that the mess will work itself out, not necessarily with much changes but peacefully.