Since issuing his April 2nd ukaz dismissing the VR, the new, more macho president Yushchenko has to a large extent dictated the pace of events. Negotiations between members of the working group trying to finalise details for the snap VR elections have run into the ground. Tymoshenko and Moroz have been bystanders. Speculation is beginning to emerge that the president may issue a third ukaz.
Today's 'Gazeta po-Kiyevski' has this:
Yushchenko's revenge - the president is being pushed into issuing a third ukaz on early elections
Below are some portions:
"President Yushchenko is being compelled to demonstrate again that he is not a dove but a hawk. Yesterday's "revolution" in the Constitutional Court completely destroyed the fragile agreements between the premier and the President. The re-assignment of judge Pshenychnyi as the head of the CC, having been discharged by the President, has finally demonstrated that the CC is under the control of "Regionaly" and is ready to pass the necessary decision when ordered.
Premier Yanukovych feels that he is now in the 'driving seat' in the negotiations with the President. But the 'new-look' Yushchenko could spring a few surprises for "Regiony". Within the next few days we could see the third President's Decree ordering early elections in July, which would be conducted with the strictest of measures.
The next, and possibly, final encounter between Yushchenko and Yanukovych will take place in the next day or two..Yushchenko cannot play for time much longer, constantly deferring to the working group which is searching for a compromise, as this counters his image as the possessor of "a strong hand". But Viktor Fedorovych will arrive at 'Bank Street' [the pres's secretariat] with the CC trump up his sleeve. Two possible versions of events are possible.
Yushchenko as dove.
The President agrees to Yanukovych's main demand - elections in Autumn. In this case the working group preparing re-elections will arrive at a compromise. However, judging by recent events, this is highly improbable. Neither Viktor wants to give way. As Yushchenko stated yesterday, "Early elections will take place, and this will be the key solution of this discussion. These elections will not be in October."
Yanukovych, from his side, in the recent days has begun to ramp up pressure - the 'revolution' in the CC, reanimation of Maidan euphoria, upping his rhetoric to the 'aggressive' position, exiting Bank Street through the back entrance, etc.
Neither of these two political players trust the other. Before signing the next ukaz on conducting of the re-elections, the President will require guarantees from Yanukovych which the hawks in Regiony are not inclined to give.
Yushchenko as hawk.
A third ukaz on conducting early elections during July is issued, which will include strict guidelines on the way the election campaign is to be conducted - even without the participation of Party of Regions. Money for the elections will be found by obtaining loans, even if the Kabmin does not issue funds. Certainly, such early re-elections will not reflect the true preferences of the electorate, but they will cause "Regionaly" much anxiety. And such elections will hardly be recognized as being legitimate both at home and abroad.
If a compromise is not achieved within the next few days between the President and premier, then the situation could change elsewhere too. The pro-president judges remaining in the CC could all resign. If their associates do not accept this - then the President could discharge them by ukaz, so paralysing the activity of the CC. And newly-appointed Prosecutor-General Svyatoslav Piskun may have to 'deliver', having been given his old job back by Yushchenko, possibly, by applying preventive half-measures against Kabmin. But it is most unlikely that he will sanction the arrest of the head of Minfin - Ministry of Finance Azarov or of premier Yanukovych for sabotaging the elections.
Sensing such a possibility, Piskun has been 'taken ill' [in the best Ukrainian tradition], and has gone in hospital. "