Thursday, May 17, 2007

Plyushch the peacemaker

Some 'background' and analysis from 'Dyelovaya Stolitsa':

In 1991 Plyushch became VR speaker because he had the confidence of two seemingly irreconcilable camps in parliament - the democrats, and the Communist- industrial "group of 239". Since then, Ivan Plyushch is considered by some as the most influential "peacemaker" in the Ukrainian politics. In 1999, at the moment of crisis between the right parliamentary opposition and the pro-Kuchma majority, it was Plyushch that proposed to then President Leonid Kuchma that he appoint Viktor Yushchenko as head of the National Bank of Ukraine; and again in the summer of 2004 it was Plyushch that spoke of the necessity of uniting the two Viktors - Yanukovych and Yushchenko.

According to 'Dyelovaya Stolitsa', Vitaliy Hayduk's resignation may have been provoked by the Russian owner of the "Gazmetall" corporation, one of the largest ferrous metallurgical holdings in Russia. Hayduk and Taruta's Industrial Union of Donbass [IUD] are presently conducting negotiations on combining with the Russia's Gazmetall corporation owned by Alisher Usmanov and Vasiliy Anisimov. The Russian oligarchs' business is to some extent dependent on the Kremlin's blessing, and they have repeatedly been questioned about why they are 'hob-knobbing' with opponents of Viktor Yanukovych.

[I have posted previously on the Industrial Union of Donbass/Gazmetall link up.]

The article continues:

"The appearance of Ivan Plyushch in the office of the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council indicates a change in Viktor Yushchenko's position with respect to the election campaign. If, previously, the elections were considered by the head of state to be a complex and difficult test for PoR, then now they could be a punishment for BYuT. For PoR, autumn elections are more favourable - by then the effects of substantial increases in wages and pensions planned for June should be felt.

Support for Tymoshenko is faltering because of an increase in the ratings of the other "orange" leader - Viktor Yushchenko. The dismissal of parliament allowed Our Ukraine to noticeably increase its popularity - a recent OP shows NU has increased its support from 7 to 14% whilst BYuT's ratings have dropped from 27 to 20%.

Compromise between the two Viktors has to be reached - and Ivan Stepanovych Plyushch may be just the man to help achieve this. VR elections during the second-half of September could be such a compromise.

It could turn out the main benficiaries of the VR elections may well be not those who most demanded them, i.e. Tymoshenko and BYuT, but President Yushchenko and PoR.

1 comment:

David said...

This seems like a political technologist pov. The ball still remains in BYuT's court to appeal to more people in the East on the need not to support PoR.

Who knows, perhaps, they can counter bribe these voters?