BAB on Ukrainian politics, Putin, Russia

Today I've translated a brief, but most interesting, interview with Boris Berezovsky from today's 'Segodnya':

"Putin will be jailed by any of his successors

The refugee oligarch explains why Yushchenko fears Tymoshenko, and describes the anti-Putin attitude of the orthodox church.

-Why, in your opinion, cannot NUNS and BYUT form a coalition in the VR and appoint Yulia Tymoshenko Head of Government?

- The problem is, unfortunately, purely personal. It concerns the personal relations between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko. And it is these relations themselves, that unfortunately, are seriously harming the democratic process in Ukraine. But since alternatives to their union does not exist, in the final analysis, they will be able to find a compromise.

- Why does Yushchenko so oppose Timoshenko's premiership?

- He is quite simply scared of her. He fears that she will become the real political leader of the country. He really fears that Tymoshenko will formally realize her leadership and will become the next President.

And will Tymoshenko be President?

- If she puts forward her candidature, then she will become President, beating both Yushchenko, and Yanukovych. Incidentally I do not envisage a strategic future for Yanukovych. The Party of Regions could split into two halves. The 'sovok' part will go with Yanukovych, while the 'biznesovaya" part with Rinat Akhmetov. He needs to somehow legalize himself in the West. And the FSB [Russian Federation Security Services] will not help him, if they begin apply pressure on him.

- Let's switch to the situation in Russia. What is Putin trying to attain? What will happen to him after selections?

- Putin is searching for ways of retaining power - [his own] personal and centralized [power]. Right now he thinks that he will enter the Duma, and then will return and be elected for a third presidential term. Someone will have a brief spell as President after him, they will then leave, and Putin will return again. In any case, this is what he wants.

- So who can be this short-term President of Russia? Zubkov, Sergey Ivanov, Medvedev?

- [It will be] the man who Putin will trust to head the country for the intermediate period. But no-one will carry out their obligations to him, if they becomes President. Neither Zubkov nor Ivanov nor any Medvedev. Putin will lose power to him in any event. And as soon as he loses it, then in the final account he will find himself on the defendant's bench [in the dock].

- Ivanov, Zubkov or Medvedev him will put him there?

- Yes. Any of its successors. Because they will want to disassociate themselves from the crimes of Putin. The regime will mover a little to the side of liberalization, but, in essence, it will remain before.

- But who will then overthrow this regime? Kasparov, Nemtsov, the Communists?

- The most likely, undoubtedly, Kasparov. Nemtsov has also changed for the better, but SPS, and Yabloko, and Communists - these are not real opposition. The real opposition are in the underground. I do not want to name concrete names in order not to help FSB, but I'm talking about groups of influence which are located in business-circles, the power structures, and in the orthodox church.

- Now about Georgia. Your friend and partner Patarkatsishvili - one of the leaders of opposition against President Saakashvili...

- With your permission, I'd rather not comment of Georgian matters."

Berezovksy is enemy #1 for Putin - Aleksandr Livinenko's poisoning and dreadful death last year may have been the result of his closeness to Berezovsky. The popular Rinatov-owned 'Segodya', is clearly not afraid of providing Berezovsky column inches on their pages. Nor, it seems, are they afraid to air Berezovsky's speculation on the future of PoR..

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So, a BYuT-NUNS coalition of 227 was assembled today. LEvko thinks it rather resembles one of the circus pyramids formed by tiers of wobbly gymnasts standing on top of one anothers' shoulders...how long before it collapses? Maybe the guys at the top will be able to cling onto the lights and scenery above the stage when it does.. Or will some of Lytvyn's people step in at the last moment?

Anyway, they did it..the photos have been taken to prove it..

Corrupt Putin

Check out this article from Anders Aslund on the myth of Putin.

'Moscow Times' articles go to 'subscribers only' status quite quickly, so don't delay.

"If these numbers [in the article] contain any truth, Putin would be the most corrupt political leader in world history...Abundant oil revenues have made it possible for Putin to avoid difficult reforms and to allow his inner circle to indulge in some of the worst corruption the world has ever seen."

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Excellent update on current state of play in Ukraine here

Events it seems, are following the usual well-rehearsed script..

Oles Doniy, a NUNS VR deputy explains at a press conference what's going on.

"At the same time, [Doniy] believes that an informal coalition between the Secretariat and the Party of Regions has been already created.

"I can state that an informal coalition between the Secretariat and the Party of Regions is taking shape," he said.

Doniy is sure that the aim of the NUNS - PR coalition is to not let Tymoshenko gain strength before the presidential elections.

In this situation, Doniy continued, the aim of the Party of Regions is to elect the Verkhovna Rada chairman from among its candidates and keep the post of acting prime minister for Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych."

The Party of Regions and some members of the Our Ukraine People's Self-Defense Bloc, who favor the broad coalition, have enough votes to elect Yurii Yekhanurov, Ivan Pliusch or Mykola Onyschuk as parliament speaker."

Others say that if Kyrylenko withdraws his bid to be VR speaker, and NUNS propose a compromise figure, then an orange coalition would become more likely.

We'll see tomorrow..

Holodomor remembrance ceremonies in Eastern Ukraine

The desire to honour the memory of ancestors who suffered and died in the Holodomor is strong in the Eastern, predominantly Russian speaking parts of the country too.

Parts of an article from today's popular 'Donbass' newspaper:

"Memorial candles for victims of the regime

Hundreds of thousands of candles in the squares, the cemeteries of Donetsk and in the windows of its inhabitants over the weekend blazed grief for those innocently slain by the Holodomor.

The leaders of the region and city, the representatives of the political parties, public organizations, clergy, cossacks and young people took part in the 'Light a candle' campaign, which took place in a peaceful, and calm manner, without any political confrontation. Participants with lighted candles passed along the central street to the Taras Shevchenko memorial...

Artemovsk - Heavenly kingdom for them all

As the rays of the sun set on the central cemetery of Artemovsk a mass of people assembled to honor the memory of their innocent compatriots who died in 1932-33.
The hands of young people, holding lighted candles involuntarily began to tremble, and old men wiped away a tear when 80-year old Ivan Fedorovich Drogiv retold to the gathering his experiences during the Holodomor. His was a large peasant family who lived in the Slobozhanshchina region... [a summary of Drogiv's narrative follows]

The ceremony was opened by the city chief Aleksey Rev; and then the obladministratsiya deputy Kim Berestovoi reported to the gathering on the work accomplished in the city and the region to perpetuate the memory of compatriots who were innocently killed by the hands of Bolshevik regime...

To the sounds of a sorrowful melody, lighted candles were placed at the foot of memorial to the victims of the Holodomor. Together with them was placed an additional symbol of terrible tragedy - a sheaf of wheat with the tight ears. It stood on the black granite framed by the flickering flames..."


How famine embraced practically all villages in Dontechyna is described in another article in 'Donbass' entitled 'War against the people'. It even includes this facimile copy of a Chicago newspaper....



And this from Ukranews:

"Dnipropetrovsk region installed on November 23 a five-meter stele in memory to the 1932 - 1933 Great Famine (Holodomor) victims near the village of Pereschepyne on the border with Kharkiv region.

Ukrainian News learned this from a report of the press service of the regional state administration.

The stele [?] has a form of a fractured scale with an iron cross placed in its center, the report reads.

«The memorial sign was put up at the cost of the local public, including businessmen,» the report says.

Dnipropetrovsk region has 83 monuments to the Holodomor victims."

Confronting evil

Yesterday President Yushchenko delivered speech [in English here] at the ceremony in Mykhaylivsky Square, Kyiv, commemorating the 75th Anniversary of the Holodomor. It's powerful stuff.

A excerpt [which I've tidied up] below:

"Evil advanced against us. Its name - genocide. A deliberate, planned and embodied attempt to suppress the nation.

Its organiser and executor - the totalitarian communist regime. They were the main killers. This degenerate gang had no mercy for any peoples, every subjected nation was filled with rivers of blood.

In our land, Stalin in accordance with a deliberate plan, chose to victimize Ukrainian peasantry because they were the core, the basis, the support of nation.

'Without a peasants' army, there is not, and there cannot be a powerful national movement. The national question in its essence is a question of the peasantry'. These words of Stalin provide the answer to the question: why did millions of Ukrainians die?"

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Mark Franchetti [of the 'Sunday Times'] gained unprecedented access to former KGB agent Andrei Lugovoi, the prime suspect in the poisoning in London of former FSB officer Alexandr Litvinenko, for the totally absorbing, and somewhat disturbing, BBC 'thisworld' program entitled: 'Britain's most wanted'.

An absolute 5* 'must-see' for anyone interested in contemporary Russia..

Watch it here . Don't miss it.

Has his self-exposure in this programme made Lugovoi appear, in the eyes of a viewer, more, or less guilty of the charges confronting him?

Going nowhere fast

The first sitting of the newly-elected Ukrainian Parliament, the Verhkovna Rada, took place today, and a recess promptly declared until next Thursday.

BYuT leader Yulia Tymoshenko's response, in an interview with journalists today:
"They need time in order to continue to bribe deputies. They want to win a few days.."

She called the ajournment: "an absolute infringement of the reglament [procedural regulations]", and declared that her fraction will attend the VR on Tuesday. She expects NUNS to do the same, hoping that the total number attending will be an orange 'full house' of 228 - sufficient to pass resolutions.

"The president told me yesterday that there is no alternative to a democratic coalition, and that he will support Kyrylenko for VR speaker," said Tymoshenko. Everyone knows that the president is always true to his word in everything he says to Yulka, so that's all right then.. [no snickering at the back..]

And when will we see any solid evidence of bribes being offered?

There are reports that 8 NUNS deputies have not signed an agreement on democratic coalition.

If they were to form their own coalition, PoR [175]-Communists [27]-Lytyvn bloc [20], could only muster 222 votes maximum in total between them. Add 8 renegades from NUNS, maybe a handful from BYuT, and this still does not provide, in Ukrainian terms, a workable majority in a 450 seat VR. The presence of Communists in this coalition would be a big problem for anyone else thinking of joining them..and Lytvyn is well aware of what happened to Moroz and the Socialists after they teamed up with PoR last year in the VR, so will be most cautious about any such arrangement. He may well prefer to remain non-aligned for the time being.

This is all going nowhere fast. Privately, the current Yanukovych-led cabinet, and the President, will not be too unhappy about that right now..

Why Ukraine's problems are a cause for optimism

Excerpts below from an article in RFE/RL entitled "Colored Revolutions: High Hopes And Broken Promises"

"Some consider the Ukrainian east-west divide to the be a source of internal weakness. But others, such as Georgian political commentator Bakur Kvashilava, argue that it holds the benefit of laying the groundwork for the establishment of democratic principles and procedures.

"Such regional disagreements complicate governance of a country, of course," Kvashilava says. "But long-term, as history and other examples teach us, if two opposing sides can agree on one fundamental issue -- that Ukraine must be integral and undivided, for instance -- then chances are they will also agree on a second fundamental issue, that the only correct path for coming to power is the democratic one -- elections, referendums."
There has been a clear effort to solve all political crises -- no matter how acute -- through negotiation and accommodation in post-Orange Revolution Ukraine. For Kvashilava, this indicates that democratic procedures are finally taking root in the country's political culture, creating a telling contrast with Georgia.

"In Georgia, as the recent events demonstrated, it was absolutely legitimate and acceptable for the population, as well as some representatives of the opposition, to call for the president's resignation, [the opposition's] assumption of power, 'saving the people' and so on," Kvashilava says. "The majority of protesters applauded these slogans -- and this indicates that democracy, as the only way of life, in Georgia has not been established as firmly as in Ukraine."

Ukraine's regional and linguistic diversity has also served as a basis for less radical shifts in foreign policy. While in Georgia most political forces -- and certainly the one in power -- are openly pro-Western and have expressed the desire to distance Georgia from Russia's influence, Ukrainian politicians have been more restrained and cautious.

"The checks and balances that exist in Ukraine, because of various divisions within the country, meant the Ukrainian government, while it was always very keen on close relationship with NATO, was never able to go flat out and seek NATO membership, or the initial Membership Action Plan," Redman of the Economist Intelligence Unit explains. "Whereas Saakashvili has had a very free hand in Georgia, and was able to do that. So he was more out-and-out pro-Western, pro-NATO, than the Ukrainians ever managed."

But that approach has come back to bite Georgia in another sense, as it served to strain further its already deteriorating relationship with Russia and has fueled aggressive rhetoric by Russian politicians who can't afford to show the same hostility to Ukraine, lest they risk alienating Russian-speaking Ukrainians."

LEvko's observation is that Russian politicians have already alienated many Russian-speaking Ukrainians over several years now, and continue to do so by their overbearing attitude. Ukrainian politicians and businessmen will not be cowed by those from the north. They know them too well - know all their games - they all used to pi** into the same pot in the days of the Union.

Ukraine and Russia are now much different countries - and the blue water between them is widening..

Ukrainians' views on Holodomor

Today the popular Russian-language 'Segodnya' newspaper carries the following story:

"Increasingly more Ukrainians recognize the Holodomor as genocide.

The overwhelming majority of Ukrainians in all regions are convinced that the Holodomor [famine] of 1932-1933 was caused by the actions of the authorities.

Here are some portions from the article:

An opinion poll reveals, this point of view is supported by 72,4% of citizens questioned by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

In the last year the percentage of those questioned who consider the Holodomor of the 30's being caused by the authorities at that time, has increased in the Ukraine from 65 to 72% - in the eastern part of the country- from 46 to 57%, in the center - from 73 to 82%, in the south - from 59 to 65% and the west - from 80 to 85%.

Only 12% consider that Holodomor of 1932-33 was caused mainly by natural circumstances.

Almost two thirds (63,2%) of those questioned fully or partially support the acknowledgement by the Supreme Rada that the Holodomor was an act of genocide against the Ukrainian people, 11,9% wavered with their answer, and 2,9% know nothing about it.

The acknowledgement of the Holodomor as genocide was supported by the supporters of the main political forces as follows: 93% of NUNS supporters, 84% of BYUT's supporters, 75% Lytvyna bloc supporters, 43% - Party of Regions. Amongst Communists - 50% do not support the acknowledgement of Holodomor as genocide, but 41% do.

It is remarkable that in comparison with the results of similar questioning carried out exactly year ago, during November 2006, the number of supporters who support the acknowledgement of the Holodomor as genocide has increased from 60,9 to 63,2%.

2041 respondents aged 18 and upward throughout the entire territory of Ukraine were questioned . The statistical error in the sample does not exceed 3,5%."

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Also from 'Segodnya', this:

"Russia is concealing from Ukraine what was onboard the sunken vessels

The Ukrainian side has not yet had any reply from the Russian Federation about the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the cargoes being carried by the sunken Russian vessels in the Kerch strait, or any details of the vessels' proprietors.

The ministry of the environment notes that the absence of information is hindering the evaluation of damage sustained by the surrounding environment."

Lots more detail on the pollution caused by Russian vessels here.

Ukrainian minister of transport and communications, Mykola Rudkovsky, claimed several days ago that the captains of the Russian vessels which sunk during the storm did not adhere to warnings and recommendations provided by Ukrainian coastguards and so bear full responsibility for the ecological damage caused.

Ukrainian-flagged ships in the area did act on recommendations given by the port authorities in Kerch, and as a result, there are no sunken Ukrainian vessels

European Union officials are already actively involved in clean-up operations.

The Russian side is behaving in a stereotypically cavalier fashion toward its closest neighbour yet again. What is it with these guys?

Segodnya on Zasyadko disaster

Today's big-selling 'Segodnya', owned by Rinat Akhmetov, pulls no punches in its reporting on the Zasyadko mine disaster in Donetsk. Its lead story is "Widow of miner says: 'They killed my husband for 2000 hryven', after Zasyadko mining disaster
Yesterday's catastrophe on the Zasyadko mine could be the worst in Ukraine's entire history. Who is guilty? Natural forces [stikhiya] again?

Below are portions of the article:

Wives spoke directly and to the point, and cursed the mine's management. "My husband in a month earns only 2000 hryven. Lord, do not bring it about, but if they killed him for this money, then I will bite Zvyagil'sky myself, even if only his leg (Zvyagilsky is the honorary President of Zasydko mine). I will bite him. I swear, I could not kill him - his guards would not allow it, but I could bite him!" said miner's wife Natalie Piskun.

In the opinion of prime minister Viktor Yanukovich, who arrived at the place of the tragedy, most likely its cause was the sudden release of methane: "All this again shows that the man is powerless in the face of such natural forces [stikhiya]. This occurs all over the world." ....

Donetsk miners told us, often the explosions of methane occur because sensors which detect the level of methane, are deliberately 'de-tuned' in order to understate the level of dangerous gas. "While the methane content is higher than standard, coal cannot be extracted. It is necessary to wait until the work site is ventilated, but this means that less coal will be dug, on which wages depend, and the main thing is revenue for the owner of mine," explained a former electrician from the mine Vladislav K. The Zasyad'ko mine employees do not blame the board of directors directly, but they assert that "recommendations" usually come from middle managers.

According to Vladislav, he repeatedly encountered the practice of the "introduction of corrections" into the work of sensors. Most frequently instruments that measure methane are simply placed on the ground where there is less harmful gas, and if this does not help they they are disconnected. Sometimes a sweater is simply hung over the instrument.

Those who do not want to do this kind of thing are quickly dealt with. "Once a section chief asked me, why is the coal cutting combine not working? I answered, that the gas situation does not make it possible to conduct work. After several days they transferred me to another section where they pay two times less. My place was taken, it seems, by a more compliant fitter." According to the miner, several months after this, an explosion took place in his former section, killing 20 of its friends.

Another miner says new equipment is now installed in the mine, and the measurement data is fed to the surface dispatcher, but if it is desired, it is possible "to correct" the data there.

The 'Segodnya' article does temper these statements a little, suggesting that the explosion may indeed have been caused by and unexpected release of methane.

The edition even ran most of BYuT's statement on the tragedy which says priority number one should be safety of working in mines. Normally Segodnya is disparaging in its comments about BYuT.

A terrible price to pay

Yanuk's shallow, inadequate comments on visiting the Zasyadko mine in Donbas today, where a terrible mining disaster has occured: "I think not one mine in the world is safeguarded from similar events. All accidents which take place in mines, are linked with the conducting of mining works; and natural disaster [stikhiya] spares no-one, it is merciless...This accident yet again reminded us that man is powerless against natural disaster [stikhiya]." [Same quotes appear in Akhmetov's 'Segodnya']

The mine has witnessed many disasters in recent years:

May 1999 - 50 deaths
August 2001 - 55 deaths
June 2002 - 20 deaths
September 2006 - 13 deaths
November 2007 - 63 deaths and many more unaccounted for at time of writing..

It it is difficult to image what it is like to earn a living in such a death-trap where fatalities occur with such gut-wrenching regularity - a mine is not a battlefield or a war zone. The poor miners of Donbas deserve better..

Also at the site are presidential secretariat head Baloha, and national security and defence council secretary Ivan Plyushch. How long will Ukrainian miners put up with these unworthy leaders who are more interested in feathering their own nests than improving the lot of the working man?

'Ostrov' points out that several years ago a road in Donetsk was named in honour of the Zasyadko mine boss Yukhym Zvyahilsky, a former acting prime minister of Ukraine, and now PoR VR deputy. How ironic that this is the road that leads to the cemetery where dead miners are normally buried..

Russians misbehaving again

Today Russia's national soccer team lost a crucial Euro 2008 qualifying game against Israel. Had they won, England would have been all but eliminated. Following what some English newspapers are calling a 'Miracle in the Holy Land', England now need only to draw against Croatia at home to reach the finals.. simultaneously eliminating Russia.

More wry amusement from the London 'Times' on this topic here and here

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Much more sinister: today the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent a note to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation demanding a swift investigation and bringing to justice members of the Eurasian Union of Youth who allegedly trashed a Holodomor exhibition in Moscow earlier today.

These are the same guys who also allegedly trashed Ukrainian national symbols on Ukraine's highest mountain, Hoverla, and conducted a cyber attack on President Yushchenko's website recently.

Even worse in Russia

Excerpt from a story in today's 'FT':

"Europe’s main election monitoring group said on Friday it was scrapping plans to deploy observers to Russia’s forthcoming parliamentary elections in a decision that could cast doubt on the integrity of the poll.

The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe claimed Moscow had imposed “unprecedented restrictions” on its activities. Russia had slashed the number of observers it would admit to the December 2 election and then repeatedly delayed issuing visas for OSCE monitors.

The move marks a new low in diplomatic relations between Russia and the west, following clashes over energy, the expansion of Nato into the former Soviet Union and US plans for missile defence bases. The west accuses Russian president Vladimir Putin of suppressing democracy while the Kremlin claims the west seeks to interfere in Russia’s internal affairs."

Check out the OSCE site for more.

And from another story in today's 'FT':

"The public prosecutions’ office in the British Virgin Islands has told the US government it has “overwhelming evidence” that Leonid Reiman, Russian telecommunications minister, is the “true beneficial owner” of a fund that owns a large part of Russia’s telecoms industry.

In a letter to the US justice department, Terrence F. Williams, the BVI’s director of public prosecution, said BVI investigators had prepared preliminary charges against Jeffrey Galmond, a close associate of Mr Reiman.

The letter alleges he concealed the minister’s role as the beneficial owner of Ipoc, a Bermuda-based fund that owns a chunk of Russia’s telecoms industry, including Megafon, the mobile operator.

The disclosure looked set to deal a fresh blow to Mr Reiman, an ally of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president. Mr Reiman has repeatedly denied allegations he secretly amassed billions of dollars of assets in the telecom sector with the help of Mr Galmond, his Danish lawyer, who has claimed in court testimony he was the beneficial owner of Ipoc."

What's Vova's cut?

Political unaccountability, part 2

So Serhiy Kivalov has received a honorary diploma from the head of the Central Election Commission for his "weighty input into securing the realization of Ukrainian citizens’ constitutional voting rights, and on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of the CEC's foundation.”

Most readers of this posting will need no introduction to this character, and will, I'm sure, will be totally 'gob-smacked' by this astonishing, odious, almost unbelievable granting of this diploma. To make matters even worse, it was granted and signed by the current CEC chairman Volodymyr Shapoval, who entered the CEC as part of Yushchenko's quota.

Some argue that the rulings of the CEC are nothing to do with the president, and because no-one was ever charged or found guilty of falsifying the 2004 presidential elections, Kivalov must be considered pure and above reproach.

However, the Supreme court did rule that during the presidential elections in 2004 the CEC and its chairman at that time, Kivalov, did not fulfill their legal functions properly, and their decisions were made not in accordance with the law - hence the re-run second round of voting.

It is left to Yuliya Tymoshenko, not for the first time, to uphold the tattered remains of the honour of Ukrainian politicians, in a statement issued on the Batkivshchyna site.

She points out that this award encourages officials to cheat any future elections, and reduces the likelyhood these elections being fair. She appeals to the chairman of the CEC to withdraw the diploma granted to Kivalov, and warns that she will not remain silent while awaiting the formation of a democratic coalition in parliament.

System of political unaccountability

An article on the current political situation in Ukraine in latest 'Kyiv Post' includes this:

"In the long term, it’s the Ukrainian nation and its people that suffer from the current political deadlock, lack of unaccountability and disrespect for the rule of law...Politicians created a system in which a small circle of politicians divide power among each other and a system of political unaccountability thrives.."

Co-incidentally, an illustration of this system is provided in a piece in today's 'Ukrainska Pravda' entitled: "From the life of the nomenklatura elites: the property of Ivan Plyushch", which describes how Plyushch - a former VR speaker, and currently National Security and Defence Council secretary close to the president and his secretariat, just two days before the 30th September VR elections, asked the president to help him obtain permission from the Cabinet of Ministers to transfer ownership and build a house on a plot of land owned by the Ukrainian state.

The dacha in which Plyushch resides right now, in what the British call 'grace-and-favour' accommodation, is located on this plot in the elite Pushcha Vodytsya suburb of Kyiv.

On 1st October president Yushchenko writes to PM Yanukovych to sort the matter out, and Yanuk promptly does this, even though, strictly speaking, the president no longer has the authority to forward such directives to the KabMin. By October 3rd Yanuk instructs minister Azarov to grant approval, and by the 5th, the ministry of Justice has also rubber-stamped a positive decision. The speed with which everything was resolved, by Ukrainian standards was truly miraculous.

Of course this has nothing to do with the fact that Plyushch is one of the main proponents in the NUNS camp of a wide VR coalition with PoR, in which he would be one of the favourites for the VR speaker's chair..

Speculation speculation..

Some interesting speculation from the excellent Mustafa Nayem and Serhiy Leshchenko in 'Ukrainska Pravda'. They propose three possible scenarios on how matters could develop in the creation [or otherwise] of a ruling coalition in the VR.

I've paraphrased some bits:

Almost one-and-a-half months have passed since the elections. In this time in Poland, even though voting took place three weeks later, the new parliament has already began work, inter-party negotiations have taken place, and a new prime minister chosen...

Yushchenko dissolved parliament on 2nd April. Now in October it's becoming clear that the only person who is in no hurry to 'get the show on the road' is Viktor Yushchenko himself. The parliament is dissolved, the status of the cabinet of ministers can be regarded as 'semi-legal', and the all-important Constitutional Court discredited...

Against this background the President remains only legitimate institution of authority in the country. But the Party of Regions, against whom this war was begun, are willing to go along with the situation, grasping for the chance to temain in the authority, even in the role of 'acting government'.

Presidential Scenario

The vote in the newly-elected VR to elect a speaker could well fall through [Vyacheslav Kirilenko is the favoured candidate from BYuT/NUNS, but there are deputies in NUNS who will not vote for him], and parliament [with the help of PoR] could select a figure acceptable to PoR e.g Ivan Plyushch or Volodymyr Lytvyn.

Logically the next stage would be to create a broad coalition. However, for this to occur NUNS would need to sort out certain internal procedures - i.e. to make a decision at the level of the individual fractions that make up NUNS. It's reasonable to assume that out of the 72 future NUNS deputies less than half would vote for a wide coalition or "shirka". To do so would expose themselves to accusations by Yulia Tymoshenko of betrayal.

In the absence of a coalition the cabinet of ministers headed by Yanukovich would continue to fulfill its duties.

The President would for sure insist on the resignation some of the more unpleasant ministers e.g. Nestor Shufrich and Mykola Rudkovskiy, and insist his own man was appointed minister of internal affairs position, but Yanukovich could probably accede to these demands.

The threat of the "oranges" reuniting would provide the President complete support of the Party of Regions and, possibly, even the Communist party. As a result, Yushchenko would remain the only fully authorised institution of authority in the country.
Meanwhile Yulia Tymoshenko is increasing her co-operation with Yuriy Lutsenko and Vyacheslav Kirilenko.

In the event that Tymoshenko's bid to become prime minister fails, the leader of BYuT will do that which voters have expected since September 2005 [when she was sacked from the PM's position by Yushchenko] - commence a campaign of attack against Viktor Yushchenko and call for early presidential elections.

Ever-shifting loyalties

Alliances of convenience and subsequent betrayals are a characteristic of contemporary Ukrainian politics. Meanwhile, behind-the-scenes deals are continuing to be thrashed out in an attempt to assemble a workable coalition in the newly-elected Verkhovna Rada.

Tymoshenko knows better than anyone that her plan to lead an orange coalition could be scuttled by just a handful of turncoat NUNS or BYuT deputies - those who would prefer a grand coalition with PoR. According to an article in 'Gazeta po Kiyevski', she has been busy trying to gain support of the 20 Lytyvyn bloc deputies for a while now, in order to achieve her aim and become PM again.

Although she has been unusually quiet, signs are her attempts have a reasonable chance of success. Hints of a possible arrangement between Lytvyn and Tymoshenko became public toward the end of last week.

Lytvyn declared that if Tymoshenko includes the basic pre-election pledges of his bloc: a moratorium on the sale of land, and a minimum wage in the program of government, then he would support her premiership. The price to be paid would be a number of posts for his bloc in Tymoshenko's government, and the vice- speaker's chair for Lytvyn himself. [The speakers chair itself would not be available as this has been 'bagsied' [called dibs] by NUNS, in their coalition agreement with BYuT.]

According to 'Gazeta po Kiyevski', Lytvyn will support Tymoshenko, but will not formally enter the "orange" coalition. He would rather take up a pragmatic 'pick and mix' neutral position.

The negotiations between Tymoshenko and Lytvyn have messed up the plans of head of the presidential secretariat Viktor Baloga in particular, and Lytvyn will now be under great pressure from PoR and some elements in NUNS to change his mind.

Meanwhile this week's 'Kommentarii' writes of a calculated warming of friendship between Yushchenko and Yanukovych, which may be of mutual benefit. [Something of which I've posted recently.]

Yushchenko continues to leave the door open for a possible broad coalition, so a working relationship with Yanukovych needs to be maintained, particularly as the 'bottom may drop out' of any BYuT-NUNS-Lytvyn bloc coalition.

Yushchenko has successfully strengthened his own position since dissolving the VR in April, taking advantage of a window of opportunity whilst Yanukovych is acting PM, but Tymoshenko not yet heading the Kabmin. He has strengthened his control over the sylovyk sectors, and rotated oblast governors, which he could hardly do with Tymoshenko as PM - Yanukovych has not protested. He has personally overseen gas affairs with Russia, with Yanuk's co-operation, so enlarging his own, new, more 'hands-on' personal image.

PM Yanukovych retains some hope of hanging on to his post in a grand parliamentary coalition. And if coalition-building in the VR drags out to a fruitless stalemate, he could continue as acting PM - retaining the loyalty to the President - a situation which could well suit the [more dynamic] president too.

For this reason Yanukovych has avoided conflict, and, on the contrary, has adopted a constructive attitude ready for broad compromises.

Even if he is thrust into opposition, a reasonably well-developed working relationship with the president means that some influence would be retained by Yanukovych - this could bring important dividends in the near future.

Cordial relations with the president could even ensure that Yanuk's significant newly-acquired properties and assets would be protected from Tymoshenko-led authorities.

Oranges feeble reaction to events in Georgia

Today's Ukrainska Pravda runs an article in both Ukrainian and Russian, which describes the uniquely close friendship and ties between Saakashvili and Yushchenko, and Saakashvili and Tymoshenko, and criticizes, [in my view quite correctly] these orange politicians for their feeble reaction to the recent events in Georgia.

"That which happened on 7th November in Tblisi sets very bad precedent. In next few years much can happen in Ukraine. And today's method of resolving the conflict in Georgia can become an example to be copied in the future, not necessarily for Yushchenko, but for another, less democratic, president than the current one.
And the absence of an adequate reaction from the oranges, which should have been made now, may stimulate someone to act in Kyiv in the same way as in Tbilisi."

Georgian lessons

Respected journalist Vitaliy Portnikov, interviewed by the BBC Ukrainian service today, is asked about the lessons Ukraine can draw from recent events in Georgia:

"I agree with Davyd Zhvaniya, who said that it was not right to compare events in Georgia and in Ukraine, because after the events in Kyiv in 2004 the Ukrainian nomenklatura failed to put into place the kind of total control over society and state that the Georgian nomenklatura managed to do. This was because the camps personified by Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovych all have different interests. And in this sense Ukraine is a much more democratic country than Georgia; and in this sense in Ukraine there exists, even in a limited form, freedom in the informational mass media. It is really the differences in interests that rescues Ukrainian society, and this is an important lesson not only for Georgia, by for other countries of the post-Soviet space.

In the Ukrainian variant, there are two routes. There is the direct route to Poland, with its normal democratic system and its participation of society in matters of state. And there is a direct route to Russia, were the nomenklatura finally sits around a round table, comes to an agreement amongst itself and establishes a regime akin to the regimes of Putin and Saakashvili. Today in Ukraine there are the possibilities to go either in one, or in the other direction. And, observing at what is happening in Tbilisi and on what is happening in Moscow, the Ukrainian citizen should simply make his choice between them."

Portnikov is right: it is the seemingly endless knife-edge political struggle between the three main protagonists of Ukrainian politics, of which everyone complains, that is actually the best guarantee for Ukraine's democratic well-being in the future.

In the last presidential elections in Georgia in January 2004, Mikheil Saakashvili received 96% of all votes cast..

Despite sweet words..RosUkrEnergo stays...

"Today's gas import scheme [for importing three-quarters of Ukraine's gas needs from Central Asia and Russia via monopolistic trader RosUkrEnergo] is dubious from the the ethical point of view," said president Yuschenko in an interview several days ago.

Even chairman of Gazprom's board of directors, Dmitriy Medvedev, one of Putin's closest buddies, recently spoke of the possible liquidation of RosUkrEnergo. But, as with many matters in Ukraine, reality is something quite different.

Ekonomichyeskiye Izvyestiya reports that by the end of the week the price of gas for Ukraine for next year will be fixed, but that the annulment of the agreement of 4th January, 2006, whereby RosUkrEnergo was nominated monopolist intermediary for supplying gas to Ukraine until 2011, will not be considered at all.

In spite of statements by President Victor Yushchenko that negotiations on the price of gas for Ukraine must be conducted at intergovermental level, the big decisions will be made by people behind Gazprom, the Ukrainian state gas company Naftogaz Ukrainy, and Swiss-registered middleman RosUkrEnergo. [RUE is 50% owned by Gazprom, and 45% and 5% by Ukrainian front-men Dmitriy Firtash and Ivan Fursin respectively].

'Gazeta po Kyevski' is puzzled why Yushchenko today met Fuel and Energy minister Yuriy Boyko, National Security and Defence Council head Ivan Plyushch, and Minister of Foreign Affairs Arseniy Yatsenyuk, and suggests it was to give secret directives to Boyko before the minister goes to Moscow and the price of Russian gas for 2008 is finalized. The deputy head of the pressa's secretariat also attended. All those present left the encounter without comment.

Yesterday Gazprom had announced that Ukraine's mysterious $2 Bn gas debt had been paid off, but how this huge debt had been allowed to build-up in the first place is unknown. And why is the president entrusting Boyko, a very shady character to say the least, and now a PoR deputy-elect, on such a vital mission? They probably want to sort out gas supply deals with Gazprom/Kremlin before [or just in case] Tymoshenko becomes prime minister again. She has vowed to clean up Ukraine's entire shadowy gas procurement business.

It was Tymoshenko's loyal adjutant Oleksandr Turchynov's investigations in September 2005 when he headed the SBU, into allegedly fraudulent practices involving the transport of Turkmen gas to Ukraine by two companies, Eural Trans Gas and RosUkrEnergo, that eventually led to president Yushchenko dismissing prime minister Tymoshenko and her entire cabinet to the dismay of orange supporters.

RosUkrEnergo is just too efficient and useful a siphon mechanism to be scrapped..

Sweet words butter no parsnips

Tymoshenko to disrupt VAT gravy train?

A big reason why PoR and its businessmen sponsors will do all they can to prevent Tymoshenko becoming PM was highlighted in an article in 'Ekonomicheskiye Izvyestiya' several days ago. The newspaper claims the first legislative initiative of a Tymoshenko-led government would be to sort out the Value Added Tax system and ensure that it is applied in a different manner, so that dubious tax credits and suspicious rebates are eliminated. Hardest hit by such a scheme would be the large export-orientated enterprises - many of which are located in PoR strongholds.

VAT fraud has been a constant problem for Ukraine. The mastermind allegedly behind some of the most serious VAT payment shortfalls is none other than hoary first deputy Prime minister and Finance Minister Mykola Azarov...

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Good background on Boris Penchuk's astonishing volte-face [see previous blog] is provided [in English] in 'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya'.

Their article suggests that Kolesnikov was arrested in April 2005 shortly after he had refused to "give away his shares in Rinat Akhmetov’s enterprises" to..Petro Poroshenko, one of Yushchenko's 'dear friends' and head of the National Security and Defence Council at that time.

Incidentally, some photos of Poroshenko's almost completed 'muck heap' here

You couldn't make it up..

A couple of days ago leading editor of the sensational anthology "Donetsk Mafia", Boris Penchuk, admitted at a press conference that he "had slandered Boris Kolesnikov under pressure from the unscrupulous Yuriy Lutsenko." Kolenikov is one of Party of Regions 'top bananas'.

The book is the most detailed collection of articles and photographs on the grizzly events that took place in the Donbas in the early and mid-nineties, that has thus far been published.

At the press conference, attended and 'supervised' by PoR representatives Anna Herman and Halyna Bondarenko, [Boris Kolesnikov’s former press secretary], he claimed that in Spring 2005, representatives from the Ministry of Internal Affairs Ministry, then headed by Yuriy Lutsenko came to him, and 'proposed' he provide evidence against Boris Kolesnikov. [Lutsenko tops the current NU-NS VR list.]

Penchuk said he was subsequently taken by members of the 'organy' to Kyiv, where he was kept under house arrest for several months, and that he was forced to sign a statement which provided evidence for Kolesnikov's arrest. After several months in prison, Kolesnikov was released without charge.

Penchuk now claims his dispute with Kolesnikov was just a "small civil matter...transformed into political repression", adding, "I was a tool in unscrupulous game of an unscrupulous man [Lutsenko]." He said he initiated the press conference to prevent Yuriy Lutsenko ever returning to the Ministry of Internal Affairs in a BYuT-NUNS coalition.

As late as this August, Penchuk was reportedly suspiciously poisoned.

In Donbass today, even many PoR supporters consider that amongst PoR's inner circle, Kolesnikov probably is the one that has most skeletons hidden in his cupboard.

So, a complete volte-face from Penchuk.

Now an article in 'Ekomicheskiye Izvestia' claims head of president Yushchenko's secretariat Viktor Baloha, and Kolesnikov, with whom Baloha has cordial relations, may be behind this campaign to blacken Yuriy Lutsenko and prevent him from gaining the powerful 'sylovyk' position of minister of internal affairs.

The article claims they favour Valeriy Heletey for this position.

This is the same Heletey, currently head of the 'gosokhrana', whom earlier this year colleagues of the then minister of internal affairs Vasyl Tsushko had claimed had poisoned Tsushko. Most accounts said he had suffered a heart attack after leading the storming of the Prosecutor-General's offices.

Heletey, at a press conference on 1st June denied he had had anything to do with any assassination attempt, and called the allegations linking him to Tsushko's illness 'political blackmail'.

Ukrainian politics..you couldn't make it up.

p.s. Russia's sylovyky are poisoning one another too..[cribbed from here?]

Yanukovych not going nowhere

This from today's 'Kommersant-Ukraina'

At yesterday's cabinet of ministers council, Viktor Yanukovych made it clear he intends to continue to work as prime minister. Most surprising to the members of the media and cabinet present was the fact that, it in every way possible, he supports Viktor Yushchenko's initiatives, several times mentioning the leading role of the President among the institutions of state authority.

He read out his half-hour speech speech at the beginning of the meeting, concentrating not on the events of the past week, but on the forecast of trends of development of the country over the intermediate and long term. The signal given by Yanukovych is he is not intent to leave the post of the Head of Government.

Officials present in the hall were the same opinion, making comments to correspondents to the effect: "Yes, this is the broad coalition road map".

Viktor Yanukovych reminded those present that the election process was complete and soon parliament will renew its work. He named the productive collaboration of parliament and government as their primary task, after calling upon the President to become the guarantor of this collaboration.

The premier then enumerated questions, on which he intends to concentrate the attention his government; in particular the adoption of the state budget, entry of Ukraine into the WTO, acceleration of judicial and agrarian reforms, and overcoming growing inflation.

Yanukovych declared a readiness to acknowledge "errors of the past". "We, and you, should recognize them, and highlight them," he said. The prime minister supported Viktor Yushchenko's ideas on reforming the political system in the country: "The contradictions which exist today must be removed, spheres competence regulated, and a new a hierarchy of democratic state institutions constructed," said Viktor Yanukovych.

The Head of Government reported that without a shadow of doubt, efforts of the branches of authority will be soon united. He several times mentioned the President as the higher authority of decision making. The Premier even intends to examine the question of increases in prices of the basic commodities together with the head of state. Among other things, Mr. Yanukovych promised to soon conduct a session of government dedicated to check whether orders of the President and government are being fulfilled. Several months ago he had declared that the President does not have a right to give to the government instructions.

However, when Viktor Yanukovych spoke of reformation of the economy of the country, he took up a position different to that of the President. The PM considers the role of state in the regulation of the economy must be increased, and called the stance of politicians who ask the KabMin not to interfere in market processes: "economically short-sighted and politically irresponsible".

The priority of the government according to Yanukovych is fighting price increases. He is even ready on Friday 2nd November, together with the President, to take part in an extended conference with experts and leaders of local organs of authority, in order to resolve this question. He accused the latter of inactivity on tackling price increase. The Head of Government gave special attention to increases in the prices of the petroleum products.

He directed fuel and energy minister Yuriy Boyko to complete negotiations with Gazprom on the price of gas for Ukraine within the next ten days. "We all heard the President expressing his position on this subject, that the price of gas, [mentioned by representatives of Russia] is unacceptable for Ukraine. According to our calculations, it should not be above $150-160 per thousand cu.m." noted the premier. He called Ukrainian delegation to raise the question of revision of cost and delivery of gas in the Ukraine. in the course of negotiations with the Russian side.

It is remarkable however, that during his appearance Mr. Yanukovych did not mention the possibility of increasing transit tariffs for gas passing over the territory of Ukraine. But Yuriy Boyko, who left immediately after the appearance of premier, reported that this question will also be brought up during negotiations.

LEvko thinks Yanuk is being smart. The now traditional parliamentary coalition-building is looking a bit shaky, [will it be as Victor Chernomyrdin once commented on an earlier failure: "We hoped for the best, but things turned out as usual?" ] The prime minister and cabinet are rising above this to give the impression that they [and now with the president, it seems] are running the country. Yanuk is aware that the price to be paid for a broad PoR-NUNS coalition is his own head [see my previous postings on this]

'Regiony' spokesmen are more openly talking about 'serious concessions', 'serious compromises', and about 'controversial questions' being removed beyond the [negotiation] framework' during the creation of a broad coalition, when its platform is being formed'.

Yanukovych on the slide?

Interesting speculation in 'Kommentarii' this week, some of which I have paraphrased below:

'Regionaly' will never again achieve the hegemony attained in 2006, and painful transformations await the party. Their strategic plan to achieve total power in the country by assembling a constitutional majority in the VR fell through, and drove Yushchenko to call for new elections.

Even if a PoR-NUNS coalition is eventually formed, this will be a serious loss of face for PoR because they will have to make concessions to their junior partner, NUNS, e.g. on the Russian language issue and on NATO.

The President will never give back the PM's job to 'Regionaly', nor the posts of ministers of Finances or Justice, nor control over the energy sphere.

Yushchenko has tightened his grip on the 'sylovyky' structures and will not share these with PoR. Only the economic and social- humanitarian ministries would be distributed amongst PoR. However a wide coalition would have some advantages for PoR - retention at least some power would safeguard the party from division and would give them breathing space to consider a strategy for the 2009 presidential elections. Most of the groups in PoR positively support the creation of a wide coalition. Only Viktor Yanukovych and his circle would be dissatisfied with the formation of a wide coalition because it would leave him without a clear role in the party.

It would be difficult for him to be appointed VR speaker or PoR fraction leader. Yanukovych's future career prospects would probably be best enhanced by a spell as shadow premier - he would remain a highly prominent political figure up to the next Presidential election campaign in late 2009.

But the possibility of PoR being an active party of opposition would not entirely suit Rinat Akhmetov, Ukraine's richest oligarch and PoR sponsor. It was Akmetov that compromised with Yushchenko in the spring by agreeing to early re-elections. If PoR have to go into opposition Akhmetov will maintain a policy of soft interrelations with the government authorities.

At the moment a temporary internal truce exists within PoR's top echelons, as indicated by the composition of their working group preparing the first session of the new VR. It comprises representatives from each wing of party: Yanukovych himself, Raisa Bohatyryova, Mykola Aazarov, Andriy Klyuev [who apparently has cordial ties to Yuriy Lutsenko], Volodymyr Rybak, and Serhiy Levochkin.

The benefits of the wide coalition for the majority of the members of party are obvious but whatever the status of PoR turns out to be, their informal leader Akhmetov will want to get rid of Yanukovych who will have to take the blame for losing the elections.

However, there are two big problems - first there is no clear replacement for Viktor Fedorovich, who remains very popular with his electorate and with a substantial part of the party's members. If the Party of Regions nevertheless join some kind of democratic alliance and Yanukovych is replaced, it is unlikely he would want to walk off the political stage volutarily. He could split the party and create his own political force in order to fill the niche of leader of the formal opposition.

The non Donetskiite 'Regionaly' in particular will strive for closer co-operation with the orange authorities, something which is already happening, e.g. in Odessa and in Luhansk.

Withdrawal to opposition and the "opportunistic" position Of Rinat Akhmetov could return PoR to their roots, i.e. make it an exclusively regional project, as in 2002. These elections seem to indicate that "Regionaly" have passed the peak of electoral success and are now beginnig to slowly lose votes.

No Ukrainian referendum on NATO for years in

Yushchenko postpones any referendum on Ukraine's NATO membership for many years into the future.

"As regards formal membership or non-membership, this is a question that will be put to the nation, and the nation will give its consent, but this will happen not in the next year or two, but after many years, when Ukraine will have matured properly for such an answer to such a question," said Yushchenko to journalists after laying flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Kyiv to mark the 63rd anniversary of Ukraine's liberation from Nazis.

More from Interfax in English here

At last some common sense from the president.

US view on corruption in Ukraine

A hefty report entitled 'Corruption, Democracy, and Investment in Ukraine' from the Washington-based Atlantic Council of the United States, has just been published. Read it here

A couple of quotes:

"Atlantic Council Task Force..found that across the political spectrum, Ukraine’s political elite agrees, with few exceptions, that corruption has become a threat to the country’s democratic future and economic prosperity.

Following the Orange Revolution, the Ukrainian government, as well as foreign governments and NGOs, began to address this issue through a range of legislative and administrative initiatives, including ratifying several international conventions against corruption, establishing governmental working groups, and cooperating with international advisory groups.

It is the judgment of the Task Force that the vast majority of these anti-corruption efforts have proven ineffective. Ukraine’s extended political stalemate, a corrupt judicial system, and a failure in political leadership on all sides have allowed a widespread “culture of corruption” in Ukraine to persist.

This has been exacerbated by a rise in international organized crime, which, paired with corruption in all branches of power, has the potential to make the Ukrainian government vulnerable to foreign political and economic influences, potentially endangering Ukraine’s national security."

"It is the conclusion of the Atlantic Council Task Force that nothing is more important to Ukraine’s long term economic and political health than combating corruption."


Thanks Adam

Poroshenko speaks

Today former Nasha Ukraina 'big beast' Petro Poroshenko was interviewed on Radio Svoboda, by his former Channel 5 employee Roman Skrypin. Some of the exchanges are interesting..

Question - Do you consider, Petro Oleksiyovych, that something or someone could prevent Yuliya Volodymyrivna becoming Premier?

Answer - I believe that today the coalition [is endangered by] a huge number of threats. When talking of its likelyhood, I would say 50-50. I would not get carried away by illusory hopes that everything will turn out well. This does not mean that I wish this, though. But it does mean, that I am very lucky that today the responsibility for creating or not creating the coalition is carried by politicians [and not by me].

In the interview he claims that since the elections he has had 8 or 10 meetings with Tymoshenko, at her request, and praises her for conducting her campaign in a brilliant manner. He also claims that he was asked both by Tymoshenko and by Yanukovych to serve in their cabinets.

Poroshenko, one of the infamous 'lyubi druzhi' was a member of Yushchenko's inner circle during the orange revolution. His constant squabbling with Tymoshenko, when she was PM and he was head of the National Security and Defence Council after the orange revolution, caused Yushchenko to sack Poroshenko and the entire Tymoshenko cabinet.

He was not on the NUNS election list, so will not be entering the newly elected VR. He is currently head of the National Bank of Ukraine council, which is, according to the constitution, a non political position.

Oh, this is the 1000th posting on F.N.

NUNS in big trouble

Yuriy Yekhanurov is rocking the boat again today, as is Ivan Plyushch who has refused to sign the latest BYuT-NUNS agreement.

As usual, during the elections it was BYuT, this time assisted by young 'radicals' such as Lytsenko and Kyrylenko from NUNS, that did the 'heavy lifting' while Yekhanurov and their ilk skulked in the background. Now the elections are over, true to form, out they crawl..

Going pear-shaped* already..

Former PM and now NUNS deputy Yuriy Yekhanurov has called upon the BYuT-NUNS coalition to begin negotiations with PoR and the Lytvyn bloc.

"If we lock ourselves only in our political forces and do hear our [other] parliamentary colleagues, then, in actual fact, the election will not have brought any results, and the division of the country continues. We have to hear one other," said Yekhanurov.

He also warned that he will leave Our Ukraine if his proposals on the coalition with BYuT and the creation of a coalition are not listened to at tomorrow's session of the party presidium.

Earlier Yekhanurov stated, that it is not entirely understandable, why the leaders of NUNS "began to crawl before Yulia Volodymyrivna" without fully agreeing of positions between the two blocs.

Yekhanurov replaced Tymoshenko when she was sacked by Yushchenko in September 2005, but Tymshenko 'put the boot in' by supporting a no confidence vote in January 2006 during that winter's gas crisis.

*To go pear-shaped - to go wrong, to fall apart, to get out of control or to fail. Primarily a British expression. Origin uncertain - possibly Royal Air Force acrobatic pilots describing malformed 'looping the loop' trails. Or, unkind description of aging process of humans.

Too nice a chap

An article in 'Gazeta po Kiyevski' says that, unsurprisingly, PoR are doing all they can to drive wedges between BYuT and NUNS and ensure their frail democratic coalition never gets off the launch pad. They say the nomination of Vyacheslav Kirilenko, Nasha Ukraina's #1 and NUNS#2, as speaker of the VR is particularly vulnerable to attack.

Some of NU's older hands consider the 39-year old Kirilenko too young and just too pally- pally to Tymoshenko. Kirilenko has little experience of business and is not closely linked to any financial or industrial group - they don't like him in the president's secretariat. They would prefer someone more immersed in the shadier side of Ukrainian politics, someone who would be more acceptable to PoR. Veteran former VR speaker Ivan Plyushch may fit the bill: he favours a grand coalition, and would make its creation more likely in the new VR. It would only be a matter of 'convincing' several orange deputies using the usual methods; and PoR would throw their weight behind Plyushch if BYuT got stroppy.

As others have noted, many of Ukraine's leaders have skeletons in their cupboards, and kompromat on one another. They have developed their own kind of modus vivendi. Kirilenko is just 'too nice a chap' to be trusted .. and the voting in the VR to elect a speaker is by secret ballot..

Looking forward, in the long run Tymoshenko is, in some ways, in a win-win situation. Since last March's elections she has gained 1.5 million extra voters. If a BYuT-NUNS coalition were to fail to be formed and a broad PoR-NUNS coalition came into being, Yushchenko's popularity would decline even further. Because the latest elections have yet again shown Ukraine to have a slight inbuilt orange majority, by the time the next presidential elections come around [in January 2010] , or any further extraordinary VR elections take place, she and her party would be confident of outright victory. But if during this time the PoR-NUNS coalition were to clean up their act, reduce corruption and deliver the goods to the electorate...Isn't this what democracy is about?

p.s. Rumour has it Yanukovych has gone off for a few days to the seaside, maybe jealous that Yushchenko and Tymoshenko are living it up and rubbing shoulders EU leaders in Lisbon. Or maybe he is not talking with Akhmetov right now while Rinat's people are wearing out the carpet in the pres's secretariat..

Some sensible ideas

A possible solution of the the sticky problem of forming a workable coalition in the VR could lie in sub-divisions of the main political parties somehow co-operating on important matters of state.

As Andriy Hromish concludes in an interesting piece in 'Kyiv Weekly' [I've paraphrased it a bit]:

Today Ukrainian society strongly associates the president and the premier with particular political colours. Ukrainians of all colours perceive a broad coalition as a betrayal of interests of both the orange and white-and-blue camps. So, the formation of a coalition of factions of different political camps could break this stereotype and safeguard Ukraine from any major tremors in society.

An article in 'Ekonomicheskye Izvestiya' suggests factions exist in PoR who maybe could go along with this kind of arrangement. I've translated some bits:

Akhmetov and Yanukovych propose their services
A fight is progressing for a 'gold share' for Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yushchenko between Rinat Akhmetov's wing and Viktor Yanukovych's wing of Party of Regions. A source in the pres's secretariat told E-Izvestiya: "Yushchenko absolutely consciously relates to the fact that 228 votes is too few for an effective coalition".

The source said that, in the opinion of the President, for the solution of the major problems e.g. the new constitution, regulating relations between the branches of goverment, between government and opposition, the imperative mandate, the cancellation of the parliamentary immunity and privileges etc. it is not absolutely necessary to have a formal coalition.

"In this situation Yushchenko is counting on the support of the moderate wing of PoR, particularly in the person or Rinat Akhmetov and his team. But negotiations between them are not all smooth - Akhmetov has stringent demands. The one thing that unites them is their striving for stability at different levels of authority," emphasized the source.

"The President is attempting to create such conditions in the rada that even with a limited coalition, legislative work can be accomplished in a normal stable manner."

Two days ago premier Viktor Yanukovych stated that in the new rada it would not possible to create the one-color coalition: "We will make efforts in order to unite Ukraine so that the people can live in stable conditions, and the authorities can work effectively".

Another source in the secretariat, said, "The question remains open: does Yanukovych oppose the moderate wing of PoR or not? In this respect Yanukovych it fighting for his place in PoR. But the President is thus far distrustful and is suspiciously disposed to the present premier."

According to the source, Yushchenko is also looking for votes, particularly on key issues, amongst deputies in Lytvyn's bloc: "The ex-speaker [Lytvyn] does not want formally to enter into any coalition. Indeed Lytvyn understands that he will be a junior partner among the others and that his opinion, will rarely be decisive. This does not correspond to the ambitions of Lytvyn, but he is ready for pragmatic collaboration if necessary."

Yanukovych, in the opinion of the source, does not believe the promises of the head of state and leaders of BYuT and NUNS to create acceptable conditions for the opposition: "The doubts of premier are understandable - earlier there was no talk of such conditions, and thus far they do not exist. This is one of the themes of his personal negotiations with the President: the opposition must become a reliable tool of control from the first days of work of the 6th convocation of the VR."

PoR spokesman Vasyl Kiselev refutes that there are different groups of influence in his party: Several of our leaders have made specific efforts to try and find common language with our opponents. Akhmetov and Bogatyryova went to see the President. But not once did Bohatyryovva go to see the President or Baloha without Yanukovych's knowledge."

Also in Ukrainian here

Seems that the main players are approaching the problem of forming a workable parliament in a mature and sensible manner. Whether anything comes of their efforts remains to be seen.

p.s. In the meantime the law courts have to sort out challenges to the election results from the Socialists, the Communist party and from another minor party, before the results of the elections can be officially declared.

It looks suspiciously as if all these legal submissions had a single source - the seriously creepy Serhiy Kivalov - one of the main orange revolution election fraudsters, now a PoR deputy.

Details of Kyiv land grab revealed

Check out this story from the recently much improved 'Kyiv Post' before it goes to subs. only. I've put it into my blog to illustrate again that there are no angels in Ukrainian politics. This story will 'have legs'..

Also check out excellent piece on the latest gas crisis, also from 'K.P.'

What happens next?

On Monday evening BYuT and NUNS signed a declaration of intent to work together as a ruling coalition in the VR, having gained 228 seats.

Their relationship has to be formalized at the first session of the new, sixth convocation, of the VR. The Central Election Commission has completed its tasks on time, but the date of this first plenary session of parliament has not yet been determined by a special preparatory group comprising representatives from each fraction entering the new VR. The group sets the agenda for that day, as well as the appointing a temporary presidium, sorting out the seating arrangements etc.

According to the most optimistic forecasts this session will not take place earlier than the last few days of this month.

Much can change in that time. "Regionaly" could regroup, and try a new tack in order to avoid going into opposition. Or the newly-formed democratic coalition could fall out over cabinet seats or other details.

According to Taras Chornovil, one of PoR's 'mouthpieces', Regiony may even be prepared to sacrifice Yanukovych and force him to 'fall on his microphone' in exchange for a broad coalition.

And Yushchenko today appointed a Lytvynite to head the Mykolayiv oblast state administration [a little sweetener, on account maybe?]

Lytvyn's bloc, which gained 20 seats in the new VR, will not even discuss who they will support for PM until a majority coalition is formally assembled in the new VR. If this coalition has an orange hue, then their bloc will consider this question at that time, said one of Lytvyn's boys.

A former British PM once said, "A week is a long time in politics."

'Segodnya' speculates PoR may block the functioning of the new VR, preventing any voting on cabinet posts. They are particularly annoyed the oranges will attempt to reverse the law on the Cabinet of Ministers that reduced presidential powers, which BYuT had supported earlier this year.

And if Yushchenko has second thoughts on a Tymoshenko premiership at any time, he has only has to whisper in the ear of a few NU deputies to press the 'Against' button..

Bandera statue

Last weekend a statue of Ukrainian nationalist leader Stepan Bandera was unveiled in Lviv.

Rather embarrassingly, some observers say the statue resembles those of Lenin, erected in many Ukrainian cities in the latter half of the last century. There are particularly close similarities to the one constructed in the typical social realism style, that still stands in downtown Kyiv [see photo].

The Lviv newspaper 'Vysokyi Zamok' points out the similar postures - arm on lapel, coat caught in the breeze, the purposeful revolutionary stride with left foot forward..Oh dear..

LEvko says Bandera was not politician or a public figure, rather the head of an underground national liberation organization. Does the statue portray this?

Fragile BYuT-NUNS coalition formed

Tonight, in the offices of the presidential secretariat, the leaders of BYuT and NUNS signed a statement on their intent to form a coalition in the newly elected VR.

The 'Donbass' newspaper, in its report, includes this:

"So the working format of [BYuT-NUNS] coalition has been revealed. But Volodymyr Lytvyn's silence is causing the potential partners to be nervous. Several times during recent days they have made clear hints [that they would like him on board too] but Lytvyn has persistently failed to react.

Without him, their [BYuT-NUNS] coalition appears very risky - the absence of just three deputies means they cannot carry a motion in the VR. And if Yuriy Yekhanurov, or any other three deputies refuse to vote for Tymoshenko's premiership - everything will collapse. So the process of negotiation has entered a new phase - more intense and quick. That the President did not invite representatives PoR and CPU to today's encounter shows what kind of coalition he wants to see. But no one knows what the result will be."

BYuT-NUNS have gained 228 seats in the 450 seat parliament. Lytvyn's bloc gained 20 seats. PoR and Communists together gained 202 seats.

Without Lytvyn the wheels will drop off very quickly..Maybe that's why PoR are playing it cool too..

Sylovyky to be under Pres's control in orange coalition

BYuT and NUNS have not yet submitted their coalition agreement to the president, but should do so Monday or Tuesday.

Whether the Orange BYuT-NUNS coalition will garner 226+ votes required in the newly-assembled VR is a different matter.

However, is seems they have now managed to 'divvy up' the ministers chairs and 'spheres of responsibility'.

The proposals will make grim reading to many. BYuT will get the economic and fuel and energy portfolios, whilst the 'sylovyky' organs have been 'bagsied' [called dibs] by Yushchenko and NUNS.

At the moment Lytvyn and his boys seem to be out of the equation entirely, but it looks as if the vice PM responsible for fuel and energy may be Vitaliy Hayduk, a wise choice.

By retaining control of the 'sylovyky' Yushchenko can be sure no one will be 'sniffing around' suspect deals involving him and his closest circle, or deals he may have made with the Kuchmistas during the orange revolution. The primary reason for Yushchenko sacking PM Tymoshenko in September 2005 was SBU head Oleksandr Turchynov's investigations into RosUkrEnergo and its links to the president's closest confidantes. Turchynov is probably Tymoshenko closest partner. A reminder of what this was about here.

I also recommend an article by Tetyana Chornovil [in Ukr] from 'Obozrevatel' about Viktor Pinchuk, former president Kuchma's son in law, and his 115 hectare estate - a former rehab and convalescence complex which was acquired by the most dubious of methods. He has even managed to wangle a no-fly zone over it, something even the president does not have over his 'pile'. The no-fly zone also covers Pinchuk's neigbours the Klyuyevs, and the Kolomoyskis.

After the O.R. when Tymoshenko was PM, she and Minister of the Interior at that time Yuriy Lutsenko tried to get to the bottom of how this estate came into Pinchuk's hands, but failed, probably because the alleged immunity granted to Kuchma by Yushchenko also covered his close family.

Pinchuk, one of Ukraine's richest men, has now morphed into global philantropist, in the words of the song "friend of stars, presidents and the pope in Rome." More on the great man from his own foundation site here . His family tie up with Kuchma does not merit a mention - obviously completely insignificant in the growth of his business empire.

Tatyana Chornovil, who during her investigations was seriously 'leant on' and threatened by Pinchuk's security goons, ends her article: "Interestingly, when on the second day after the elections Yushchenko made his baffling declaration on the necessity of creating a broad coalition, there were boisterous celebrations at Pinchuk's estate. On that day nearly all political leaders were disorientated, angry and troubled, but at the Pinchuk's and Kuchma's there were salutes.
I'll bet there were...

President double-dealing as usual

Here's some interesting speculation from 'Gazeta po Kiyevski':

On 8th October the president met the leaders of the parties that will enter the new parliament and gave them five days to sort out a coalition, submit a candidate for prime minister, and a program of action for the future KabMin.

Public negotiations between NUNS and BYuT (and behind-the-scenes negotiations between NUNS and PoR) are far from complete. The main stumbling block is no one wants to give up the PM's chair, or satisfy the president's increasing appetite - he now wants to assign the minister of the interior too.

BYuT and NUNS keep saying they have almost completed their arrangements...but not quite. Sticking points seem to be program details, including changing laws on the KabMin. For Yushchenko these laws presents a significant danger because they considerably truncate his authority and increase the authority of potential premier Tymoshenko.

'GpoK' claims the president's reaction to this week's brief standoff with Gazprom/Kremlin on the $2Bn 'gas debt' has been half-hearted, and suggests an explanation for this.

While one part of NUNS have been occupied with public negotiations involving Yuriy Lutsenko and Vyacheslav Kirilenko and BYuT, conversations have been taking place at the president's secretariat where Viktor Baloga has met representatives of PoR, in particular Andriy Klyuev,and even Rinat Akhmetov. [Sounds familiar?]

There has been little reaction from President Yushchenko to the signing by Minister of Fuel and Energy (and future PoR deputy) Yuriy Boyko of a mysterious agreement on the liquidation of the "gas debt". He may not have even seen details of the agreement.

Today Yushchenko sent Yanukovych a letter criticizing the projected budget for 2008, but did not point out Minister of Finance Mykola Azarov's increases in benefits for deputies and high ranking state officials.

The reasons for the president's attitude may be that it just wouldn't look right for him to criticize the Party of Regions whilst behind-the-scenes negotiations with them are taking place, and then possibly even going into coalition with the same people shortly afterwards.

Gas - a peculiar business..

Last week Gazprom publicly warned Ukraine that it would cut gas supplies to the country if Ukraine failed to pay its $1.3 billion debt in October 2007 and also notified its European partners of the problem.

Ukraine’s Deputy Fuel and Energy Minister Vadim Chuprun noted that the debt in question was a debt owed to Gazprom by corporations, and not by the Ukrainian government at all. This was followed by a National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine spokesman claiming they did not understand what debt Gazprom was talking about. “There should be no debts based on the current scheme of agreements and contractual relations,” said Yuri Prodan, Deputy Secretary of the NSDC.

And yet, as FT reported today, following Yanukovych's visit to Moscow, agreement has been reached and Ukraine will repay Gazprom in cash and gas after all. According to the FT, Russian prime minister Viktor Zubkov claimed the debt had risen by early October to $2bn, although RosEkrEnergo, monopoly supplier of gas to Ukraine, reckons its overdue debt to Gazprom is only $929m.

Yanukovych was quoted as saying cryptically : “It [the debt] doesn’t exist as such but we have created a mechanism that will allow us to settle the issue,” in response to Zubkov.

EDM has made an excellent attempt to explain of what is going on, but these huge discrepancies and the almost instant agreement are baffling, to say the least.

Now today Fuel and Energy Minister Yuriy Boyko declared that the Ukrainian debt of $1.3bn was all "provoked by the Ukrainian opposition", and explained that according to the latest agreement 4bn cubic metres of gas in underground storage facilities will be sold to UkrGazEnergo at a previous price, as part of the settlement. This gas was earmarked for re-export to Europe and should not be used on the internal market of Ukraine. The surplus arose as a result of an abnormally warm winter when demand to Europe was low, he added.

LEvko thinks if this 4bn cubic metres was unused stock from last winter, then it either belongs to the supplier or the end user, but not to the transit country - Ukraine. Because Ukraine's imported gas comes from just one supplier, the intermediary company RosUkrEnergo at a a price of about half of what other European customers pay, it is contractually not permitted to re-export gas.

This standoff and its apparent resolution reveal a continuing absence of transparency in the gas trade between Russia, Ukraine and the central Asian countries. Everyone knows intermediaries are often used in business to enable suppliers and consumers to collude in skimming and 'getting the numbers all muddled up'. Tymoshenko has warned many times that she intends to eliminate them if she were to become PM again...

Parties going through well-practiced motions

Yushchenko today called together the leaders of the parties entering the newly elected VR and told them they have five days to cobble together a workable ruling coalition.

Previous experience suggests the chances of success are slim.

Fault lines have predicably developed in NUNS, and 10-15 NU deputies may refuse to vote for Tymoshenko in her attempt to become PM again - she will need almost every one of those vote to be elected.

In an article to be published in a German periodical Yushchenko, again asserts that the representatives PoR must be appointed to government posts "from vice- premier to minister". He obviously envisages formation of a wide coalition, or 'shyrka', something that has already been ruled out by BYuT and many NUNS deputies.

PoR are not all 'singing from the same hymn sheet' either. Viktor Yanukovych considers coalition negotiations undertaken last week with prospective coalition partners by senior PoR figures Rayisa Bohatyryova and Boris Kolesnikov to be premature, and he sees only himself in the PM's chair.

He says negotiations on the creation of a parliamentary coalition should only begin only after the official announcement of the elections results.

Curiously, Yanukovych noted that PoR is not frightened of the possibility of working in opposition. "If this happens, the we will be in opposition," he said.

At least the attempts to 'square the circle' are thus far, being conducted in a civilized manner. Today Tymoshenko and Yanukovych even had a brief conversation.

Splits in NUNS?

A couple of days ago 40 out of 72 newly-elected NU-NS VR deputies signed an appeal to president Yushchenko declaring that they refuse to support any PoR-NUNS coalition in parliament.

All the deputies from the National Self-defence quota in the NUNS bloc who will be entering parliament, have signed the appeal [apart from Oleksandr Omelchenko].

'Dzerkalo Tyzhnya' also carry this item in a rather inflated article on possible coalition combinations.

PoR's position on 'shyrka'

Will the Rada remain without 151 deputies or there will be a wide coalition? asks Rinat Akhmetov's 'Segodnya' today. It then continues:

If the negotiations between PoR and NUNS on the creation of wide coalition are not successful, then 151 deputies from the PoR will not accept their mandates, giving a basis to acknowledge the Supreme Rada illegitimate.

Our sources in the highest ranks of PoR report that the party is considering the option to refuse to take up 151 VR mandates unless agreement is reached on a wide coalition. "Even if we take up our mandates, but agreements are infringed and NUNS and BYUT create a coalition, then 10-15 patriots will always be found who will not vote for Tymoshenko as premier. In this case our fundamental position is that Viktor Yanukovych must remain premier," said our source."

There you have it - clear and to the point..


p.s. You wouldn't guess from this pie chart from 'Segodya' that BYuT [white] came within about 3.5% of catching PoR [blue] in last Sunday's election would you?

Lytvyn getting cocky already

An article in Akhmetov's big-selling 'Segodnya' newspaper reveals Lytvyn has wasted no time, and is already punching over his weight.

Here are some bits:

"Lytvyn is demanding management of tax administration, customs service, Kiev [city council] and parliament

Lytvyn envisages himself speaker of parliament, and sees members of his bloc in the positions of head of the state tax administration of Ukraine, and as Kyiv city head. Reliable sources have revealed that Lytvyn made these demands during private consultations with the leaders of the political forces which passed into the new parliament.

A list was apparently produced during his encounter with the President, and then at his meeting with Yulia Tymoshenko. Similar demands were made by Lytyvn to the Party of Regions. Furthermore, Lytvyn's packet of portfolio requirements included retention of his brother Mykola Lytvyn in his position as head of the state customs service.

All the main political forces consider Lytvyn's demands to be excessive - his bloc did not even gain 4% of votes cast. However, Lytvyn himself is not back-tracking."

Segodnya claims the deal on the PoR-NUNS-Lytvyn bloc 'shyrka' [broad coalition] may almost be complete - with Viktor Baloha, currently head of the pres's secretariat, becoming PM. In this way Yanuk and Yulka are both neutralized in the race for the presidency. But the paper does go on to describe many possible twists and turns including splits in NUNS, and possible conflicts in any BYuT-NUNS coalition.

The paper also reveals that 'lyubi dity': Yushchenko's nephew Yaroslav, Lutsenko's brother Serhiy, and son of former mayor of Kyiv Aleksandr Omelchenko all failed to enter the new VR on the NUNS list. You can be sure that Yanik's son got in though.

LEvko thinks all the particants in the coalition-building talks have thus far behaved responsibly, and comments made by them have been measured, which is encouraging. But sooner or later someone's going to be mighty disappointed, then it may well become a different matter...

Ukraine facing same old problem

By "commissiong the Party of Regions, BYuT, Our Ukraine-People’s Self-Defense and the other winners to start preliminary political consultations to form a majority in Ukraine’s parliament and form a government," the pres. today revealed he favours a grand coalition - there are already unconfirmed reports of behind-the-scenes meetings between head of pres.s secretariat Viktor Baloha, PoR fraction honcho Boris Kolesnikov, and Voldymyr Lytvyn.

Tymoshenko is demanding clarification on this, but Pres. has gone to Germany at this critical time [to bestow an award to the Queen of Sweden?! - fixing up next summer's holiday?].

BYuT have again today reiterated [for the umpteeth time] that they would rather go into oppostion than join a coalition which includes PoR.

In theory BYuT and NUNS could create a ruling VR coalition on their own, but with only 228 deputies in a 450 seat VR, it would most likely crumble in weeks.

The Lytvyn bloc, with 20 deputies of their own, could join them, but closer examination reveals this bloc to be a most peculiar construct indeed.

Their well-financed election campaign was generously supported by Vasyl Khmelnytskiy, Ukraine's 12th richest oligarch. He had been a BYuT deputy in the previous VR, but was one of the first to 'jump ship' and collaborate with PoR in the spring, when orange deputies started drifting over to the ruling anti-crisis coalition. He now appears on the new PoR list, but many of 'his people' will enter the new VR on the Lytvyn bloc list.

I have posted previously about Lytvyn and the people with whom he tried to enter the VR in last March's elections, and others have also posted on his dubious past.

Recent history strongly suggests such a BYuT-NUNS-Lytvyn coalition would not be stable, even if formed.

As for PoR, going into opposition now would be too great a humiliation. They will simply refuse to pick up their newly-gained parliamentary mandates - the new VR would be still-born, and the current Yanukovych cabinet would continue to function.

A few moments ago, in Berlin, Yush emphasized that some positions in the government and parliament must be given to the opposition.

Sadly, some pro-orange commentators have gotten rather over-excited in recent days.

LEvko thinks Yanuk could possibly be sacrificed to assuage orange anguish if a broad coalition is formed. Whatever the composition of any new ruling VR coalition and government, it will be an improvement on the previous PoR-Communist-Socialist anti-crisis coalition.

If BYuT go into opposition, because have gained over 150 seats in the new VR, they have the power to 'bring down the roof' at a time of their choosing.

However, a cheering feature revealed in the voting results, is highlighted in a 'Kyiv Weekly' article : the distant regions of Ukraine have it seems have drawn closer together - the threat of a split has receeded somewhat.

In the north-west oblasts of Rivne and Lutsk, PoR scored a respectable 10% and 7%,. BYuT did well in the eastern and southern oblasts. NUNS scored 9% in Crimea, BYuT 16% in the Kharkiv oblast.

The results show that the number of core regions, in which individual parties dominated in the 2006 elections, i.e. exceeded their score by 50% compared with the entire country, has been reduced by one quarter. So the scare stories of 'Banderites' in the east, and 'bandits' in the west are not having the same impact as previously. Parties, maybe for the first time since indepence, are becoming national parties, not just regional parties.

Slippery operators

Looks as if San Sanych Moroz is on his way out - missing you already....

As one slippery operator moves out, another one - Volodymyr Lytvyn - moves in.

More on him from a previous blog here. As I wrote then, being in opposition is not his style. My hunch is that he will string his suitors along for a while, then probably go orange..but if this happens, there is no way PoR will stand in the opposition corner, and the toys will really start flying in the PoR nursery.

Easy way of gaining seats

A poll of exit polls show the Socialists gaining 2.5% of votes cast, which would give them precisely zero deputies in the new VR.

Assuming that around 20 million Ukrainians in total voted, if about 100,000 votes for the Socialists could be "found" from somewhere right now, this would give the Socialists 3% of the votes and, bingo! 14 or 15 seats in the new VR, which could significantly tilt the result in PoR's favour.

There are 450 seats in the VR, so each deputy normally is equivalent to 20 million divided by 450 voters, i.e. about 44 thousand voters. But for parties bubbling just below the 3% threshold, a few thousand votes could be very, very valuable.

Tempting, no?

Update: Both President Yushchenko, in an official statement [in English here] and the Central Election Commission have warned electoral commissions, particularly in southern and eastern oblasts, to make haste and complete their counting of votes. The clear hint is that there may be malevolent intent behind the delay. He added that any falsifications will be dealt with by law enforcement agencies. Hmm..

There is chance that the Socialists may just creep in by a gnat's **** too, so, tension increasing..