Saturday, July 15, 2006

The Mummy Returns?

Here's some speculation on how things may develop in Ukraine in the following days and weeks. Two possible scenarios are described in an article by Mykola Pysarchuk, which he claims are envisaged by PoR political advisers and strategic planners in documents they have prepared for the PoR leadership.

PoR is run by just a handful of people - their total control over their party was demonstrated when Socialist Moroz was elected VR speaker, receiving every single PoR vote. Mykola Azarov, PoR's official nomination, did not receive one vote, not even his own..

In the peaceful alternative, Yushchenko meekly submits Yanukovych's name to the VR as PM for their approval. A portion of NSNU joins the anti-crisis coalition, gaining a 'few crumbs off the table' in parliamentary commitees and so on. The President loses significant power in the process.

However, the president may dissolve parliament on the 25th July, ostensibly because 60 days have elapsed from the winding up of the previous government, without a new government being appointed. If this were to occur, then a grimmer alternative is predicted .

Thousands of blue supporters would arrive in Kyiv, staging demonstrations of support for Yanukovych and the anti-crisis coalition. Moroz declares in parliament that the presidential ukaz dissolving parliament is unlawful, and that it is an act of treason. Parliament starts proceedings to impeach the Yushchenko. The anti-crisis coalition forms a 'government of national consolidation and stability' headed by Viktor Yanukovych. Once the Constitutional Court is re-activated and its currently depleted seats filled by the 'right people', the events described would naturally receive the Court's approval.

PoR will certainly not wait for months for re-elections to take place and allow their political enemies to regroup, as the oranges did after the March elections.

Pysarchuk claims that the financier deputies in BYuT would rather cut their losses, switch over to the anti-crisis coalition and throw their lot in with PoR, than fund and organize further street actions of protest against the 'anti-crisists'.

Latest opinion polls indicate that most Ukrainian citizens do not really favour dissolution of parliament - more bad news for Yush..

Ukrainians may soon be governed by the likes of Yanukovych and Azarov, who when they were previously in power, systematically abused their positions, continuously using sinister means to neutralize their political opponents, including, astonishingly, their new-found allies the Socialists and Communists.

I gave a brief description last January of the type of guys who now sit in the PoR seats in the VR.

As for Yushchenko, slightly misquoting a song by Boz Scaggs, "You had it in the palm of your hand...and baby you lost it.."

1 comment:

Jonathan Taylor said...

I totally agree that Yush has wasted his opportunity. But I think its a bit premature to call the Orange Revolution dead. Significant progress has been made and I think that with Yush as Pres as well as a strong opposition, Yanu as PM is not necessarily a fatal blow.

I more thoroughly explain my view in a post here: http://www.publiuspundit.com/?p=2814