Yesterday's talks between NSNU, PoR, and the President were fruitless, and president Yushchenko refused to validate either Moroz as speaker, or the anti-crisis coalition.
NSNU are demanding exclusion of the Communists from any broad coalition, and nomination of a representative of the Our Ukraine bloc as the coalition's candidate for the post of prime minister.
Experts are predicting events may develop in three different ways.
There is only a slight chance that a broad coalition with NSNU's participation could be formed, i.e. if the above-mentioned conditions are met by PoR. The Communists are getting nervous about this though - their leader Petro Symonenko, on returning from Moscow today said that he would not work with the 'anti-crisis-ites' if NSNU also joined this coalition; but Yanukovych quickly assured them there are no plans to dump them. [The support of the Communists last week possibly cost a lot of 'brown envelope' money, so PoR want to 'get their money's worth']
Another possibility is that BYuT go in opposition together with loyal NSNU deputies, against the 'anti-crisis' coalition. There are snags here because the President has several levers to pull to prevent the VR and ministers working. E.g. there is a deadline before which the cabinet must be formed, but as the President himself appoints the ministers of defense and foreign affairs, can a cabinet be considered complete without these two important ministers being in place?
The president has the right to veto laws passed by the VR, which can only be overcome by 2/3 of deputies' votes, i.e. 301 votes. The president can redirect decisions made by the VR to the constitutional court, which is not functioning at the moment. Hindering the work of the VR could cause a reshuffle after just a few weeks amongst the ranks of the 'anti-crisisists'.
A final, quite realistic possibility is the dissolution of parliament by the President, which has to form a government by 25th July, or face dissolution, according to the constitution.
Yanukovych reiterated a statement made by one of PoR's 'top bananas,' Yevhen Kushnaryov: If the president does not submit the VR's chosen candidate for PM for their approval, then the anti-coalitionists will confirm this candidate for PM themselves. In other words, Yanukovych will 'self-coronate' himself as PM.
And Yuliya T, in an emotional impromptu press conference said that BYuT are going into opposition, and are demanding early parliamentary re-elections. She alleged that some of her deputies are being offered bribes of between $5 and $10 million, for their votes by the 'anti-crisisists' - serious money by any standards. She looked quite tired and stressed out, as do the other leading players. But she's a 'class act' on TV.
Yanukovych, in contrast, is embarrassingly clumsy and oafish - always rolling his eyes and looking for words - very uncomfortable in front of cameras. It's looking like stalemate until the 25th.. but you never know..
*d.o.t. - dolgovremyennaya ognyevaya tochka - a permanent military defensive position or structure.